Fantasy Premier League returns for the 23/24 season this weekend and with it, captaincy dilemmas, benching headaches as well as an endless number of drafts dreamt up and destroyed only for us to immediately regret our decision come deadline time.
The Bookies Advantage XI aims to help you smash the first gameweek of this new season.
Attacking Odds:
| Player | Probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 65% | 1.54 | MCI | FWD |
| Evan Ferguson | 53% | 1.9 | BHA | FWD |
| Gabriel Jesus | 52% | 1.92 | ARS | FWD |
| Marcus Rashford | 52% | 1.93 | MUN | MID |
| Eddie Nketiah | 48% | 2.08 | ARS | FWD |
| Julian Alvarez | 46% | 2.17 | MCI | FWD |
| Callum Wilson | 45% | 2.2 | NEW | FWD |
| Kai Havertz | 43% | 2.3 | ARS | MID |
| Bukayo Saka | 43% | 2.35 | ARS | MID |
| Kaoru Mitoma | 42% | 2.38 | BHA | MID |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | 42% | 2.38 | FUL | FWD |
| Mohamed Salah | 41% | 2.43 | LIV | MID |
| Bruno Fernandes | 41% | 2.45 | MUN | MID |
| João Pedro | 40% | 2.5 | BHA | FWD |
| Alexander Isak | 40% | 2.5 | NEW | FWD |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 38% | 2.6 | ARS | MID |
| Son Heung-Min | 38% | 2.65 | TOT | MID |
| Darwin Nunez | 37% | 2.7 | LIV | FWD |
| Phil Foden | 36% | 2.75 | MCI | MID |
| Leandro Trossard | 36% | 2.8 | ARS | MID |
| Antony | 36% | 2.8 | MUN | MID |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 35% | 2.88 | EVE | FWD |
| Dominic Solanke | 34% | 2.9 | BOU | FWD |
| Harvey Barnes | 34% | 2.9 | NEW | MID |
| Kieffer Moore | 33% | 3 | BOU | FWD |
| Odsonne Edouard | 33% | 3 | CRY | FWD |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 33% | 3 | CRY | FWD |
| Anthony Martial | 33% | 3 | MUN | FWD |
| Martin Odegaard | 31% | 3.1 | ARS | MID |
| Yoane Wissa | 31% | 3.2 | BRE | FWD |
| Jadon Sancho | 31% | 3.2 | MUN | MID |
| Danny Ings | 31% | 3.25 | WHU | FWD |
| Diego Jota | 30% | 3.3 | LIV | MID |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 30% | 3.3 | MCI | MID |
| Richarlison | 30% | 3.3 | TOT | FWD |
| Ollie Watkins | 29% | 3.4 | AVL | FWD |
| Solly March | 29% | 3.4 | BHA | MID |
| Carlos Vinicius | 29% | 3.45 | FUL | FWD |
| Mason Mount | 29% | 3.5 | MUN | MID |
| Justin Kluivert | 28% | 3.55 | BOU | MID |
| William Osula | 28% | 3.6 | SHU | FWD |
| Pascal Gross | 27% | 3.65 | BHA | MID |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 27% | 3.7 | BRE | MID |
| Neal Maupay | 27% | 3.75 | EVE | FWD |
| Bernardo Silva | 27% | 3.75 | MCI | MID |
| Raheem Sterling | 26% | 3.8 | CHE | MID |
| Michail Antonio | 26% | 3.85 | WHU | FWD |
| Nicolas Jackson | 26% | 3.9 | CHE | FWD |
| Eberechi Eze | 26% | 3.9 | CRY | MID |
| Jarrod Bowen | 26% | 3.9 | WHU | MID |
| Demarai Gray | 25% | 4 | EVE | MID |
| Palmer Cole | 25% | 4 | MCI | MID |
| James Maddison | 25% | 4 | TOT | MID |
| Kevin Schade | 24% | 4.1 | BRE | MID |
| Miguel Almiron | 24% | 4.2 | NEW | MID |
| Cody Gakpo | 24% | 4.25 | LIV | FWD |
| Jack Grealish | 23% | 4.3 | MCI | MID |
| Said Benrahma | 23% | 4.3 | WHU | MID |
| Cameron Archer | 23% | 4.4 | AVL | FWD |
| Sasa Kalajdzic | 22% | 4.5 | WOL | FWD |
| Moussa Diaby | 22% | 4.6 | AVL | MID |
| Joe Willock | 22% | 4.6 | NEW | MID |
| Christian Eriksen | 21% | 4.7 | MUN | MID |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | 21% | 4.7 | NFO | FWD |
| Michael Olise | 20% | 4.9 | CRY | MID |
| Carlton Morris | 20% | 5 | LUT | FWD |
| Philip Billing | 20% | 5.1 | BOU | MID |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | 20% | 5.1 | LIV | MID |
| Rhian Brewster | 20% | 5.1 | SHU | FWD |
| Anthony Gordon | 19% | 5.3 | NEW | MID |
| Jordan Ayew | 19% | 5.4 | CRY | MID |
| Alex Mac Allister | 18% | 5.5 | LIV | MID |
| Elijah Adebayo | 18% | 5.5 | LUT | FWD |
| Ivan Perisic | 18% | 5.5 | TOT | DEF |
| Wout Weghorst | 18% | 5.6 | BUR | FWD |
| Declan Rice | 17% | 5.8 | ARS | MID |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 17% | 5.8 | TOT | MID |
| Andreas Pereira | 17% | 6 | FUL | MID |
| Bobby Reid | 16% | 6.1 | FUL | MID |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 16% | 6.1 | NEW | MID |
| Jay Rodriguez | 16% | 6.25 | BUR | FWD |
| Sander Berge | 16% | 6.25 | SHU | MID |
| Emiliano Buendia | 16% | 6.4 | AVL | MID |
| Rodri | 16% | 6.4 | MCI | MID |
| Harry Wilson | 15% | 6.5 | FUL | MID |
| Zeki Amdouni | 15% | 6.5 | BUR | FWD |
| Elliot Anderson | 15% | 6.5 | NEW | MID |
| Chris Wood | 15% | 6.75 | NFO | FWD |
| Cauley Woodrow | 14% | 7 | LUT | FWD |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | 14% | 7 | NFO | FWD |
| Brennan Johnson | 14% | 7 | NFO | FWD |
| Daniel Podence | 14% | 7 | WOL | MID |
| Hee-Chan Hwang | 14% | 7 | WOL | MID |
| Conor Gallagher | 13% | 8 | CHE | MID |
| Benson | 13% | 8 | BUR | MID |
| Lyle Foster | 13% | 8 | BUR | FWD |
| Anass Zaroury | 13% | 8 | BUR | MID |
| Luke Berry | 11% | 9 | LUT | MID |
| Mykhaylo Mudryk | 11% | 9.5 | CHE | MID |
| Reece James | 11% | 9.5 | CHE | DEF |
| Shandon Baptiste | 10% | 10 | BRE | MID |
| Enzo | 10% | 10 | CHE | MID |
| Nathan Redmond | 10% | 10 | BUR | MID |
| Sandro Tonali | 10% | 10 | NEW | MID |
| Ismaila Coulibaly | 10% | 10 | SHU | MID |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 7% | 14 | LIV | DEF |
| Virgil van Dijk | 7% | 15 | LIV | DEF |
A new season brings with it great change, with new players, new managers and evolving styles of play.
However, some things never change and Erling Haaland (65%) topping the odds for anytime goalscorer is something we grew accustomed to last season. 36 goals in 31 starts made Haaland the Premier League all-time goal-scoring record holder and the Norwegian is expected to start the season strong again this year.
They open the season against Vincent Kompany’s Burnley, and when the two sides met in the FA Cup last season, City won 6-0, with Haaland grabbing a hattrick.
It would take a brave manager to back against him this Gameweek One.
Evan Ferguson (53%) makes for a surprising inclusion in the lineup but with the young Irishman’s potential, we think he may just be worth the risk.
Since coming into the team post-World Cup, Ferguson averaged an impressive non-penalty expected goals per 90 of 0.50 (higher than Harry Kane at 0.47). There is no doubt that when Ferguson plays, he scores goals.
First up he takes on newly promoted Luton Town at home. Luton have failed to recruit well over the summer and are the Bookies favourites to finish bottom of the Premier League. Ferguson is a highly explosive asset and come Gameweek One he’ll be hoping to leave the Hatters in tatters.
Marcus Rashford (52%) is expected to build on his brilliant season last year as he broke the 200 points barrier for the first time in his FPL career.
He welcomes Wolves in Gameweek One who have had to replace head-coach Julien Lopetegui on short notice . Just one clean sheet away from home last season (20th) with 38 goals conceded (joint 16th) means Gary O’Neill may be in for a baptism of fire away at the Red Devils.
Bukayo Saka & Kai Havertz (both 43%) represent both ends of the ownership spectrum with Saka at 57%, while Havertz sits at just 5.4%.
Saka had a phenomenal season last year, also breaking 200 points for the first time, while Havertz endured a poor Chelsea side but with the German expected to play as the striker as Arsenal welcome a Forest side who conceded 44 goals (20th) away from home last year, he should have plenty of chances to hit the ground running (or plenty of chances to miss the target).
On the bench for us in Gameweek One are Eliot Anderson (15%) who, at just £4.5m, has really impressed in preseason. He’s joined by Marvelous Nakamba, also £4.5m, and looks a decent bench fodder option.
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Defensive Odds:
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Man City | 53% | 1.87 |
| Arsenal | 53% | 1.89 |
| Brighton | 52% | 1.92 |
| Man Utd | 50% | 2.02 |
| Newcastle | 39% | 2.55 |
| Crystal Palace | 36% | 2.75 |
| Everton | 36% | 2.8 |
| West Ham | 29% | 3.4 |
| Bournemouth | 29% | 3.45 |
| Sheffield Utd | 29% | 3.45 |
| Liverpool | 28% | 3.55 |
| Tottenham | 28% | 3.55 |
| Fulham | 25% | 4 |
| Chelsea | 24% | 4.1 |
| Brentford | 24% | 4.2 |
| Aston Villa | 20% | 5.1 |
| Luton | 12% | 8.5 |
| Wolves | 12% | 8.5 |
| Burnley | 11% | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 7% | 14 |
Manchester City (53%) struggled for clean sheets at the end of last season keeping just three in their last 10 games, however the Bookies still fancy them as most likely to begin the season with one.
They travel to Turf Moor in Gameweek One to take on City legend Vincent Kompany’s new look Burnley, playing a much different style of play compared to the Dyche years.
The Clarets scored 87 goals in the Championship last year, however Pep Guardiola’s Man City represent a different challenge altogether.
John Stones seems the most nailed and will be playing largely in midfield and getting forward on occasion. He’s joined by Manuel Akanji who seems to have locked down that RCB spot.
At joint top spot, Arsenal (53%) are another side whose defensive form fell off a cliff in the run in keeping just two clean sheets in their last ten and conceding 17 goals.
This poor run coincided with the loss of William Saliba to injury and with the young French defender’s return, the Gunners are expected to be back firing on all cylinders.
Nottingham Forest were 20th for away goals last season with 11, as they scored more than two goals on just two occasions (vs Liverpool and Chelsea).
Gabriel looks the safest bet going into Gameweek One, with his aerial threat he offers potential returns at both ends of the pitch.
Brighton (52%) come next in the clean sheet rankings as their defensive form was very good towards the end of last season.
They welcome newly promoted Luton Town to the Amex this Saturday who managed a bit better than a goal per game in the Championship last season with 57 goals in 46 games, seven other teams finishing with a better goal tally than the Hatters.
Pervis Estupinan is a popular pick at 52%, he makes an easy choice in our XI this week.
Manchester United (50%) were the team with the best defensive form in the last ten gameweeks of the 22/23 season with six clean sheets in 12 games played, with De Gea at fault for a few more clean sheet losses.
Ten Hag has strengthened in defence over the summer however, bringing in the highly rated André Onana. He’ll be expecting a clean sheet on his full debut as he welcomes a Wolves side who managed just 12 goals away from home last season (19th).
At the very reasonable price of £5.0m Onana takes his place between the sticks for us in Gameweek One.
On the bench for us in defence is Alphonse Areola (£4.0m) who stands a small chance of taking the number one jersey for West Ham, as well as George Baldock, as Sheffield United have been given the best chance of a clean sheet out of the £4.0m options (29%) when they welcome Crystal Palace this weekend.
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here
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