Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 1

Fantasy Premier League returns for the 23/24 season this weekend and with it, captaincy dilemmas, benching headaches as well as an endless number of drafts dreamt up and destroyed only for us to immediately regret our decision come deadline time.

The Bookies Advantage XI aims to help you smash the first gameweek of this new season.

Attacking Odds:

Erling Haaland65%1.54MCIFWD
Evan Ferguson53%1.9BHAFWD
Gabriel Jesus52%1.92ARSFWD
Marcus Rashford52%1.93MUNMID
Eddie Nketiah48%2.08ARSFWD
Julian Alvarez46%2.17MCIFWD
Callum Wilson45%2.2NEWFWD
Kai Havertz43%2.3ARSMID
Bukayo Saka43%2.35ARSMID
Kaoru Mitoma42%2.38BHAMID
Aleksandar Mitrovic42%2.38FULFWD
Mohamed Salah41%2.43LIVMID
Bruno Fernandes41%2.45MUNMID
João Pedro40%2.5BHAFWD
Alexander Isak40%2.5NEWFWD
Gabriel Martinelli38%2.6ARSMID
Son Heung-Min38%2.65TOTMID
Darwin Nunez37%2.7LIVFWD
Phil Foden36%2.75MCIMID
Leandro Trossard36%2.8ARSMID
Dominic Calvert-Lewin35%2.88EVEFWD
Dominic Solanke34%2.9BOUFWD
Harvey Barnes34%2.9NEWMID
Kieffer Moore33%3BOUFWD
Odsonne Edouard33%3CRYFWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta33%3CRYFWD
Anthony Martial33%3MUNFWD
Martin Odegaard31%3.1ARSMID
Yoane Wissa31%3.2BREFWD
Jadon Sancho31%3.2MUNMID
Danny Ings31%3.25WHUFWD
Diego Jota30%3.3LIVMID
Kevin De Bruyne30%3.3MCIMID
Ollie Watkins29%3.4AVLFWD
Solly March29%3.4BHAMID
Carlos Vinicius29%3.45FULFWD
Mason Mount29%3.5MUNMID
Justin Kluivert28%3.55BOUMID
William Osula28%3.6SHUFWD
Pascal Gross27%3.65BHAMID
Bryan Mbeumo27%3.7BREMID
Neal Maupay27%3.75EVEFWD
Bernardo Silva27%3.75MCIMID
Raheem Sterling26%3.8CHEMID
Michail Antonio26%3.85WHUFWD
Nicolas Jackson26%3.9CHEFWD
Eberechi Eze26%3.9CRYMID
Jarrod Bowen26%3.9WHUMID
Demarai Gray25%4EVEMID
Palmer Cole25%4MCIMID
James Maddison25%4TOTMID
Kevin Schade24%4.1BREMID
Miguel Almiron24%4.2NEWMID
Cody Gakpo24%4.25LIVFWD
Jack Grealish23%4.3MCIMID
Said Benrahma23%4.3WHUMID
Cameron Archer23%4.4AVLFWD
Sasa Kalajdzic22%4.5WOLFWD
Moussa Diaby22%4.6AVLMID
Joe Willock22%4.6NEWMID
Christian Eriksen21%4.7MUNMID
Taiwo Awoniyi21%4.7NFOFWD
Michael Olise20%4.9CRYMID
Carlton Morris20%5LUTFWD
Philip Billing20%5.1BOUMID
Dominik Szoboszlai20%5.1LIVMID
Rhian Brewster20%5.1SHUFWD
Anthony Gordon19%5.3NEWMID
Jordan Ayew19%5.4CRYMID
Alex Mac Allister18%5.5LIVMID
Elijah Adebayo18%5.5LUTFWD
Ivan Perisic18%5.5TOTDEF
Wout Weghorst18%5.6BURFWD
Declan Rice17%5.8ARSMID
Dejan Kulusevski17%5.8TOTMID
Andreas Pereira17%6FULMID
Bobby Reid16%6.1FULMID
Bruno Guimaraes16%6.1NEWMID
Jay Rodriguez16%6.25BURFWD
Sander Berge16%6.25SHUMID
Emiliano Buendia16%6.4AVLMID
Harry Wilson15%6.5FULMID
Zeki Amdouni15%6.5BURFWD
Elliot Anderson15%6.5NEWMID
Chris Wood15%6.75NFOFWD
Cauley Woodrow14%7LUTFWD
Morgan Gibbs-White14%7NFOFWD
Brennan Johnson14%7NFOFWD
Daniel Podence14%7WOLMID
Hee-Chan Hwang14%7WOLMID
Conor Gallagher13%8CHEMID
Lyle Foster13%8BURFWD
Anass Zaroury13%8BURMID
Luke Berry11%9LUTMID
Mykhaylo Mudryk11%9.5CHEMID
Reece James11%9.5CHEDEF
Shandon Baptiste10%10BREMID
Nathan Redmond10%10BURMID
Sandro Tonali10%10NEWMID
Ismaila Coulibaly10%10SHUMID
Trent Alexander-Arnold7%14LIVDEF
Virgil van Dijk7%15LIVDEF
Goalscorer odds gameweek 1

A new season brings with it great change, with new players, new managers and evolving styles of play.

However, some things never change and Erling Haaland (65%) topping the odds for anytime goalscorer is something we grew accustomed to last season. 36 goals in 31 starts made Haaland the Premier League all-time goal-scoring record holder and the Norwegian is expected to start the season strong again this year.

They open the season against Vincent Kompany’s Burnley, and when the two sides met in the FA Cup last season, City won 6-0, with Haaland grabbing a hattrick.

It would take a brave manager to back against him this Gameweek One.

Evan Ferguson (53%) makes for a surprising inclusion in the lineup but with the young Irishman’s potential, we think he may just be worth the risk.

Since coming into the team post-World Cup, Ferguson averaged an impressive non-penalty expected goals per 90 of 0.50 (higher than Harry Kane at 0.47). There is no doubt that when Ferguson plays, he scores goals.

First up he takes on newly promoted Luton Town at home. Luton have failed to recruit well over the summer and are the Bookies favourites to finish bottom of the Premier League. Ferguson is a highly explosive asset and come Gameweek One he’ll be hoping to leave the Hatters in tatters.

Marcus Rashford (52%) is expected to build on his brilliant season last year as he broke the 200 points barrier for the first time in his FPL career.

He welcomes Wolves in Gameweek One who have had to replace head-coach Julien Lopetegui on short notice . Just one clean sheet away from home last season (20th) with 38 goals conceded (joint 16th) means Gary O’Neill may be in for a baptism of fire away at the Red Devils.

Bukayo Saka & Kai Havertz (both 43%) represent both ends of the ownership spectrum with Saka at 57%, while Havertz sits at just 5.4%.

Saka had a phenomenal season last year, also breaking 200 points for the first time, while Havertz endured a poor Chelsea side but with the German expected to play as the striker as Arsenal welcome a Forest side who conceded 44 goals (20th) away from home last year, he should have plenty of chances to hit the ground running (or plenty of chances to miss the target).

On the bench for us in Gameweek One are Eliot Anderson (15%) who, at just £4.5m, has really impressed in preseason. He’s joined by Marvelous Nakamba, also £4.5m, and looks a decent bench fodder option.

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Defensive Odds:

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City53%1.87
Man Utd50%2.02
Crystal Palace36%2.75
West Ham29%3.4
Sheffield Utd29%3.45
Aston Villa20%5.1
Nottingham Forest7%14
Clean sheet odds gameweek 1

Manchester City (53%) struggled for clean sheets at the end of last season keeping just three in their last 10 games, however the Bookies still fancy them as most likely to begin the season with one.

They travel to Turf Moor in Gameweek One to take on City legend Vincent Kompany’s new look Burnley, playing a much different style of play compared to the Dyche years.

The Clarets scored 87 goals in the Championship last year, however Pep Guardiola’s Man City represent a different challenge altogether.

John Stones seems the most nailed and will be playing largely in midfield and getting forward on occasion. He’s joined by Manuel Akanji who seems to have locked down that RCB spot.

At joint top spot, Arsenal (53%) are another side whose defensive form fell off a cliff in the run in keeping just two clean sheets in their last ten and conceding 17 goals.

This poor run coincided with the loss of William Saliba to injury and with the young French defender’s return, the Gunners are expected to be back firing on all cylinders.

Nottingham Forest were 20th for away goals last season with 11, as they scored more than two goals on just two occasions (vs Liverpool and Chelsea).

Gabriel looks the safest bet going into Gameweek One, with his aerial threat he offers potential returns at both ends of the pitch.

Brighton (52%) come next in the clean sheet rankings as their defensive form was very good towards the end of last season.

They welcome newly promoted Luton Town to the Amex this Saturday who managed a bit better than a goal per game in the Championship last season with 57 goals in 46 games, seven other teams finishing with a better goal tally than the Hatters.

Pervis Estupinan is a popular pick at 52%, he makes an easy choice in our XI this week.

Manchester United (50%) were the team with the best defensive form in the last ten gameweeks of the 22/23 season with six clean sheets in 12 games played, with De Gea at fault for a few more clean sheet losses.

Ten Hag has strengthened in defence over the summer however, bringing in the highly rated André Onana. He’ll be expecting a clean sheet on his full debut as he welcomes a Wolves side who managed just 12 goals away from home last season (19th).

At the very reasonable price of £5.0m Onana takes his place between the sticks for us in Gameweek One.

On the bench for us in defence is Alphonse Areola (£4.0m) who stands a small chance of taking the number one jersey for West Ham, as well as George Baldock, as Sheffield United have been given the best chance of a clean sheet out of the £4.0m options (29%) when they welcome Crystal Palace this weekend.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here

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