Last gameweek we managed a whopping 99 points with all four defenders returning, four double digit hauls across the team and adding in a captaincy return, it was a decent week for the Bookies Advantage XI.
Going into Gameweek 10, we see the XI are dominated by Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa assets, due to their favourable fixtures.
However, with a captaincy debate raging and many options presenting themselves, the Bookies think the best advice may be to change nothing.
Goalscorer odds gameweek 10
| Player | Probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 59% | 1.7 | MCI | FWD |
| Mohamed Salah | 58% | 1.73 | LIV | MID |
| Gabriel Jesus | 54% | 1.84 | ARS | FWD |
| Eddie Nketiah | 54% | 1.85 | ARS | FWD |
| Ollie Watkins | 51% | 1.95 | AVL | FWD |
| Darwin Nunez | 51% | 1.98 | LIV | FWD |
| Callum Wilson | 47% | 2.12 | NEW | FWD |
| Son Heung-Min | 45% | 2.2 | TOT | MID |
| Evan Ferguson | 45% | 2.23 | BHA | FWD |
| Diego Jota | 45% | 2.23 | LIV | MID |
| Bukayo Saka | 44% | 2.25 | ARS | MID |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 44% | 2.28 | ARS | MID |
| Dominic Solanke | 40% | 2.48 | BOU | FWD |
| Kaoru Mitoma | 40% | 2.5 | BHA | MID |
| Luis Díaz | 40% | 2.5 | LIV | MID |
| Nicolas Jackson | 39% | 2.55 | CHE | FWD |
| Alexander Isak | 39% | 2.55 | NEW | FWD |
| João Pedro | 38% | 2.65 | BHA | FWD |
| Moussa Diaby | 37% | 2.7 | AVL | MID |
| Raheem Sterling | 37% | 2.7 | CHE | MID |
| Julian Alvarez | 37% | 2.7 | MCI | FWD |
| Martin Odegaard | 36% | 2.75 | ARS | MID |
| Ansu Fati | 36% | 2.8 | BHA | MID |
| Kai Havertz | 35% | 2.85 | ARS | MID |
| Leandro Trossard | 34% | 2.9 | ARS | MID |
| Palmer Cole | 34% | 2.9 | CHE | MID |
| Kieffer Moore | 34% | 2.95 | BOU | FWD |
| Jarrod Bowen | 33% | 3 | WHU | MID |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 32% | 3.1 | EVE | FWD |
| Richarlison | 32% | 3.1 | TOT | FWD |
| Danny Ings | 32% | 3.1 | WHU | FWD |
| Leon Bailey | 32% | 3.15 | AVL | MID |
| Carlos Vinicius | 31% | 3.2 | FUL | FWD |
| Phil Foden | 31% | 3.2 | MCI | MID |
| Odsonne Edouard | 30% | 3.3 | CRY | FWD |
| James Maddison | 30% | 3.3 | TOT | MID |
| Arnaout Danjuma | 29% | 3.4 | EVE | MID |
| Rasmus Højlund | 29% | 3.5 | MUN | FWD |
| Justin Kluivert | 28% | 3.55 | BOU | MID |
| Sasa Kalajdzic | 28% | 3.55 | WOL | FWD |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 28% | 3.6 | CRY | FWD |
| Marcus Rashford | 28% | 3.6 | MUN | MID |
| Jay Rodriguez | 26% | 3.8 | BUR | FWD |
| Michail Antonio | 26% | 3.8 | WHU | FWD |
| Lyle Foster | 25% | 3.95 | BUR | FWD |
| Said Benrahma | 25% | 4 | WHU | MID |
| Pascal Gross | 24% | 4.1 | BHA | MID |
| Raúl Jiménez | 24% | 4.1 | FUL | FWD |
| Jeremy Doku | 24% | 4.1 | MCI | MID |
| Miguel Almiron | 24% | 4.1 | NEW | MID |
| Hee-Chan Hwang | 24% | 4.1 | WOL | MID |
| Yoane Wissa | 24% | 4.2 | BRE | FWD |
| Alex Mac Allister | 24% | 4.25 | LIV | MID |
| Philip Billing | 21% | 4.7 | BOU | MID |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 21% | 4.75 | BRE | MID |
| Bruno Fernandes | 21% | 4.75 | MUN | MID |
| Chris Wood | 21% | 4.75 | NFO | FWD |
| Neal Maupay | 20% | 4.9 | BRE | FWD |
| Carlton Morris | 20% | 4.9 | LUT | FWD |
| Bernardo Silva | 20% | 4.9 | MCI | MID |
| Anthony Gordon | 20% | 4.9 | NEW | MID |
| Cameron Archer | 20% | 4.9 | SHU | FWD |
| Conor Gallagher | 20% | 5 | CHE | MID |
| Bobby Reid | 20% | 5.1 | FUL | MID |
| Mykhaylo Mudryk | 19% | 5.2 | CHE | MID |
| Jack Grealish | 19% | 5.2 | MCI | MID |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 18% | 5.5 | TOT | MID |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | 18% | 5.6 | NFO | FWD |
| Enzo | 16% | 6.1 | CHE | MID |
| Elijah Adebayo | 16% | 6.1 | LUT | FWD |
| Anthony Martial | 16% | 6.25 | MUN | FWD |
| Harry Wilson | 15% | 6.5 | FUL | MID |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 15% | 6.5 | NEW | MID |
| Jordan Ayew | 14% | 7 | CRY | MID |
| Andreas Pereira | 14% | 7 | FUL | MID |
| Antony | 14% | 7 | MUN | MID |
| William Osula | 14% | 7 | SHU | FWD |
| Cauley Woodrow | 13% | 7.5 | LUT | FWD |
| Rodri | 13% | 7.5 | MCI | MID |
| Mason Mount | 13% | 8 | MUN | MID |
| Luke Berry | 11% | 9 | LUT | MID |
| Christian Eriksen | 11% | 9 | MUN | MID |
| Rhian Brewster | 10% | 10 | SHU | FWD |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 10% | 10.5 | LIV | DEF |
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Erling Haaland (59%) surprisingly, is the most favoured to score by the bookies heading into the weekend. The prolific powerhouse broke his duct at home to Brighton last week before scoring two in midweek and should be brimming with confidence ahead of his trip to Old Trafford.
Manchester United may have won their last two games but the underlying numbers make for poor reading. They conceded 1.49 xG (excluding penalties) to København during the week, whilst also conceding 1.42 xG to Sheffield United, the worst offensive team in the league. They’ve kept one clean sheet all season at home, coming in Gameweek 1, and have conceded seven goals in their four home games since then.
The Bookies fancy Haaland to have a hell of a time at the home of the Red Devils this weekend, and it’s in them we trust.
Mo Salah (58%) is just behind, fresh off the back of two consecutive braces, those who brought in and captained the Egyptian will have been flying of late.
This weekend he plays Nottingham Forest at home, a team that looks much improved this season, especially in defence. They come in the top half of the table for goals conceded (12), xGC (12.54) and big chances conceded (19).
None of this is to say Salah won’t score but maybe explains why Haaland is slightly more fancied.
Darwin Nunez (51%) joins his Liverpool team mate for an attacking double up. Nunez actually ranks better than Haaland for non-penalty expected goal involvement per 90 and is always a threat when on the pitch. With the Uruguayan expected to start this week, he makes a decent pick.
Ollie Watkins (51%) is another man on fire at the moment with seven returns (four goals, three assists) in his last three games making him the most transferred in player ahead of Gameweek 10.
Luton Town have the worst away defensive numbers in the league conceding 11 goals (joint 20th), 13.12 xG (20th) and 23 big chances (20th) in all away matches.
Watkins is a no brainer pick for us this gameweek.
Bukayo Saka (44%) has blanked only once so far this season and will be hoping to add to his four goals and four assists when he welcomes Sheffield United to the Emirates stadium this weekend. Sheffield United have conceded 49 chances down their left side so far this season and this zonal weakness could prove costly this weekend.
Son Heung-min (45%) is another man in hot form with six goals in seven games since his move to the central striker role for Spurs. This week he faces a tougher test in Crystal Palace away under lights. Despite their hammering away at Newcastle last weekend, Palace rank top half in most defensive metrics and will be no pushovers come Friday night.
On the bench for us this week in attack are Marvelous Nakamba (£4.4m), as well as Naouirou Ahamade (£4.3m) who allow us to put the maximum budget into our starting XI.
Clean sheet odds gameweek 10
Arsenal (60%) are the most fancied defence heading into Gameweek 10 despite having kept just one clean sheet at home, coming against Manchester City in Gameweek 8.
It’s no surprise they are heavily backed for the clean sheet as they welcome Sheffield United to the Emirates, who sit 19th for goals scored from open play as well as 20th for xG.
The Gunners on the other hand are second (behind Man City) for goals conceded (8) and xGC (7.98).
Gabriel and Zinchenko look like a decent defensive double up here, the Blades weakness at set pieces are well documented which suits Gabriel while Zinchenko is always Arsenal’s most attacking defender.
Aston Villa (50%) are another side with just one home clean sheet so far this season but a favourable fixture makes them too tempting to turn down.
Luton Town have just one goal from open play in away games and look very poor in attack.
Aston Villa sit fourth for goals conceded at home (3), as well as third for big chances conceded (3).
Matty Cash (£5.1) or Lucas (Digne) are the players to have in the Villa defence this gameweek, however, budget restrictions mean we’ve gone for Pau Torres (£4.5m) who makes a decent cheap alternative.
Liverpool (45%) kept only their second clean sheet of the season last gameweek, beating 10-man Everton 2-0 at Anfield. This weekend brings another home fixture vs Nottingham Forest when Jurgen Klopp’s men will be hoping for another shutout.
Steve Cooper’s men have failed to score in their last two away games, coming against Man City and Crystal Palace and despite improving on last season’s abysmal away record, they still rank in the bottom five for goals scored (4) and big chances (8) as well as bottom 10 for expected goals (5.23).
Liverpool by contrast rank first for goals and expected goals conceded at home, as well as second for big chances conceded.
Kostas Tsimikas (£4.5m) is the most transferred in defender this week and makes for a nice cheap route into the Liverpool defence.
Chelsea (42%) are last on the list and are averaging a clean sheet every three games this season as Pochettino finally seems to be getting a tune out of the Blues.
This week they welcome a bumbling Brentford to the Bridge, buoyed by a big win against Burnley last time out. Thomas Frank’s men are in the bottom three for xG from open play away from home as well as bottom 13th for big chances created.
Chelsea meanwhile rank fourth for big chances conceded, as well as xG conceded and will be confident of keeping the Bees out this weekend.
Robert Sanchez looks a decent shout at just £4.6m and has four save points in eight games since coming into the side.
On the bench for us in defence this week is Thomas Strakosha (£3.9m) as well as Charlie Taylor (£3.9m) who looks the best budget enabling defender this gameweek.
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Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here