With some managers being punished last week for straying from the flock regarding captaincy, perhaps lessons can be learned. However, punts can still be taken.
This week two differentials with good track records start up front. Meanwhile, there’s a midfield shake-up as we look to capitalise on kind fixtures.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Goalscorer odds Gameweek 10
| Player | Goal probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 75% | 1.34 | MCI | FWD |
| Callum Wilson | 44% | 2.25 | NEW | FWD |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 43% | 2.32 | CHE | FWD |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 43% | 2.35 | MUN | FWD |
| Phil Foden | 41% | 2.43 | MCI | MID |
| Jamie Vardy | 41% | 2.45 | LEI | FWD |
| Riyad Mahrez | 39% | 2.55 | MCI | MID |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 39% | 2.55 | MCI | MID |
| Armando Broja | 38% | 2.65 | CHE | FWD |
| Raheem Sterling | 38% | 2.65 | CHE | MID |
| Harry Kane | 38% | 2.65 | TOT | FWD |
| Wilfried Zaha | 37% | 2.7 | CRY | MID |
| Gabriel Jesus | 37% | 2.7 | ARS | FWD |
| Patson Daka | 36% | 2.75 | LEI | FWD |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | 36% | 2.75 | FUL | FWD |
| Gianluca Scamacca | 36% | 2.75 | WHU | FWD |
| Ollie Watkins | 36% | 2.8 | AVL | FWD |
| Danny Ings | 36% | 2.8 | AVL | FWD |
| Mohamed Salah | 35% | 2.85 | LIV | MID |
| Odsonne Edouard | 35% | 2.88 | CRY | FWD |
| Kelechi Iheanacho | 34% | 2.95 | LEI | FWD |
| Michail Antonio | 34% | 2.95 | WHU | FWD |
| Dominic Solanke | 33% | 3 | BOU | FWD |
| Kai Havertz | 33% | 3 | CHE | FWD |
| Philippe Coutinho | 33% | 3 | AVL | MID |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 32% | 3.1 | CRY | FWD |
| Darwin Nunez | 32% | 3.1 | LIV | FWD |
| Ivan Toney | 32% | 3.15 | BRE | FWD |
| Christian Pulisic | 32% | 3.15 | CHE | MID |
| Jarrod Bowen | 31% | 3.2 | WHU | MID |
| Diogo Jota | 31% | 3.2 | LIV | FWD |
| Anthony Martial | 31% | 3.2 | MUN | FWD |
| Marcus Rashford | 31% | 3.2 | MUN | FWD |
| Ilkay Gundogan | 30% | 3.35 | MCI | MID |
| Son Heung-Min | 30% | 3.35 | TOT | MID |
| Kieffer Moore | 29% | 3.4 | BOU | FWD |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 29% | 3.4 | EVE | FWD |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | 29% | 3.4 | NFO | FWD |
| Roberto Firmino | 29% | 3.45 | LIV | FWD |
| Maxwel Cornet | 29% | 3.5 | WHU | MID |
| Sam Surridge | 29% | 3.5 | NFO | FWD |
| Emmanuel Dennis | 29% | 3.5 | NFO | FWD |
| James Maddison | 28% | 3.55 | LEI | MID |
| Danny Welbeck | 28% | 3.55 | BHA | FWD |
| Patrick Bamford | 28% | 3.6 | LEE | FWD |
| Rodrigo | 28% | 3.6 | LEE | MID |
| Neal Maupay | 28% | 3.6 | EVE | FWD |
| Bernardo Silva | 27% | 3.65 | MCI | MID |
| Bruno Fernandes | 27% | 3.65 | MUN | MID |
| Allan Saint-Maximin | 27% | 3.7 | NEW | MID |
| Mason Mount | 27% | 3.7 | CHE | MID |
| Luis Diaz | 27% | 3.7 | LIV | MID |
| Richarlison | 27% | 3.75 | TOT | FWD |
| Jack Grealish | 26% | 3.8 | MCI | MID |
| Leandro Trossard | 26% | 3.8 | BHA | MID |
| Lucas Paqueta | 26% | 3.8 | WHU | MID |
| Antony | 26% | 3.8 | MUN | MID |
| Brennan Johnson | 26% | 3.8 | NFO | FWD |
| Harvey Barnes | 26% | 3.85 | LEI | MID |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 26% | 3.85 | ARS | MID |
| Said Benrahma | 26% | 3.9 | WHU | MID |
| Leon Bailey | 25% | 4 | AVL | MID |
| Carlos Vinicius | 24% | 4.1 | FUL | FWD |
| Anthony Gordon | 24% | 4.1 | EVE | MID |
| Conor Gallagher | 24% | 4.2 | CHE | MID |
| Jorginho | 24% | 4.2 | CHE | MID |
| Bukayo Saka | 24% | 4.2 | ARS | MID |
| Jamal Lowe | 24% | 4.25 | BOU | MID |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 23% | 4.3 | BHA | MID |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 23% | 4.4 | NEW | MID |
| Fabio Carvalho | 22% | 4.5 | LIV | MID |
| Jadon Sancho | 22% | 4.5 | MUN | MID |
| Pablo Fornals | 21% | 4.7 | WHU | MID |
| Manuel Lanzini | 21% | 4.7 | WHU | MID |
| Yoane Wissa | 21% | 4.75 | BRE | MID |
| Miguel Almiron | 20% | 5 | NEW | MID |
| Martin Odegaard | 20% | 5 | ARS | MID |
| Anthony Elanga | 20% | 5.1 | MUN | MID |
| Michael Olise | 19% | 5.25 | CRY | MID |
| Eberechi Eze | 19% | 5.25 | CRY | MID |
| Joelinton | 19% | 5.4 | NEW | MID |
| Jordan Ayew | 19% | 5.4 | CRY | MID |
| Diego Costa | 18% | 5.5 | WOL | FWD |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 18% | 5.5 | TOT | MID |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 17% | 5.75 | BRE | MID |
| Ryan Christie | 17% | 5.75 | BOU | MID |
| Christian Eriksen | 17% | 5.8 | MUN | MID |
| Joe Willock | 17% | 6 | NEW | MID |
| Che Adams | 17% | 6 | SOU | FWD |
| Sekou Mara | 17% | 6 | SOU | FWD |
| Pascal Gross | 17% | 6 | WHU | MID |
| Goncalo Guedes | 16% | 6.4 | WOL | FWD |
| Reece James | 15% | 6.5 | ARS | MID |
| Sergi Canos | 14% | 7 | BRE | FWD |
| Joao Cancelo | 14% | 7 | MCI | DEF |
| Adam Armstrong | 13% | 7.5 | SOU | FWD |
| Josh Dasilva | 11% | 9 | BRE | MID |
The captaincy question hardly bears much discussion these days, and while things can change quickly in FPL, it safe to say that for now, Erling Haaland (75%) is looking like perma-captain material.
Three hattricks in a row at home is an incredible feat, and Haaland shows no signs of stopping with a brace in 45 minutes during the week. Southampton, however, is looking vulnerable with no clean sheets so far this season. Rumours abound that Hassenhuttl is close to the exit, so this weekend could be the final nail in the coffin.
Haaland is our captain for the 10th week in a row if you need any more convincing.
Callum Wilson (44%) returned to action last weekend and scored a goal as his side ran out 4-1 winners at Craven Cottage. This week he takes on Brentford, who have just one clean sheet away from home this season (vs Bournemouth last week).
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (43%) now has two goals in two games for Chelsea under Potter. The former Arsenal striker may once again be capable of leading the line for a Big Six side. He takes on a Wolves team reeling from Bruno Lage’s sacking last weekend. Aubameyang is very much a form player and we’re backing his hot streak to continue at home this weekend.
Four goals despite playing Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea shows just how key Wilfried Zaha (37%) is to Crystal Palace. The Ivorian winger is joint 2nd for goals and big chances amongst all midfielders so far this season.
After a good season start, Leeds looks to have fallen off a bit. Jesse Marsch’s side have conceded 10 big chances in just three away games.
Kevin De Bruyne (38%) has better odds to score this week than Mo Salah (35%). However, since we are already tripled up on Man City, the Liverpool winger takes the premium midfield spot in our side. Salah was unlucky not to score in Gameweek 9 as Sanchez made some great saves denying Salah from his two big chances.
Arsenal can be got at down their left-hand side and often leave space in behind, Salah has the quality to punish that space if given half a chance.
The last place in our starting lineup goes to Phillipe Coutinho (33%). The Brazilian playmaker has had a quiet start to the season with no goals and no assists thus far, as Villa look well off it. Leicester, too, looked well off it until they came up against Nottingham Forest, so Villa will feel they can do the same. Coutinho will be operating in similar positions to James Maddison, who hauled against Forest last Monday night and were rolling the dice that Coutinho can do the same.
Andreas Pereira (11%) continues on our bench and is joined by Jacob Murphy (20%), who offers a decent bench fodder option.
Clean sheet odds Gameweek 10
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Man City | 53% | 1.87 |
| Chelsea | 53% | 1.9 |
| Newcastle | 37% | 2.7 |
| West Ham | 37% | 2.7 |
| Aston Villa | 34% | 2.9 |
| Leicester | 33% | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | 33% | 3.05 |
| Man Utd | 33% | 3.05 |
| Tottenham | 28% | 3.6 |
| Brighton | 26% | 3.8 |
| Nottingham Forest | 26% | 3.9 |
| Arsenal | 24% | 4.25 |
| Liverpool | 23% | 4.35 |
| Leeds | 22% | 4.5 |
| Bournemouth | 22% | 4.6 |
| Everton | 22% | 4.6 |
| Brentford | 18% | 5.6 |
| Fulham | 18% | 5.6 |
| Wolves | 14% | 7 |
| Southampton | 9% | 11 |
Man City (55%) come out top for clean sheet odds this week, even after conceding three at home to Man United last week, though, to be fair, the game was well over, and perhaps a little complacency crept in for City.
Still, Pep Guardiola’s team remain top of nearly every defensive metric there is, including shots on target conceded (20), shots in the box conceded (32) and expected goals from open play conceded (3.7).
The opponents this week, Southampton, gave them two good games last year, earning a 1-1 at home and a 0-0 at the Etihad. However, Ralph Hassenhuttl’s men look a good deal worse than they did last year and are firmly mid-table in many attacking metrics, such as goals scored (15th), open play expected goals (16th), shots in the box (7th) and big chances total (13th).
With this in mind we think it wise to go all in on a defensive double up for City with Joao Cancelo, who got an assist in the Champions League during the week, and Manuel Akanji who seems to have locked down a starting spot in this City defence for now.
Chelsea (54%) are second for clean sheet odds. Graham Potter’s men have had a good week from a defensive point of view, restricting Crystal Palace to just 0.44 expected goals and then following that up by holding AC Milan to 0.39 expected goals.
As one career begins, another ends. Chelsea’s opposition this week, Wolves, are fresh off sacking Bruno Lage after an underwhelming start to the season. With no new manager in place as yet, a bounce is unlikely. With only three goals scored this season, it seems doubtful that Wolves can click into gear this weekend at Stamford Bridge, though Diego Costa might fancy a pantomime villain role.
For these reasons, we’ve gone with another defensive double up here, with Arrizabalaga retaining his place in Chelsea’s starting XI and ours. He’s joined by Reece James who had a goal, assist and a clean sheet during the week. Just a shame it was in the Champions League.
Lastly, West Ham (41%) who seem to be finding their feet after a slow start to the season. David Moyes’ side come up against a Fulham side, who may be without talismanic striker Alexsandr Mitrovic.
Kurt Zouma (£4.5m) provides a conceivable goal threat, as well as potential for a clean sheet. He takes the last starting spot in our XI this week.
On the bench are Danny Ward (£4.0), who recorded his first clean sheet last week, as well as Neco Williams (£4.1).
Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 10
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.
You can follow him on Twitter here
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