Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 11

Gameweek 10 delivered our second 90+ points tally in a row as five of our front six returned, as well as three of our back five, though we did get a mighty slice of luck with Charlie Taylor coming off the bench for Gabriel.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

This week, the Bookies favour attack over defence with two plum fixtures for Man City and Liverpool, it seems clean sheets will be hard to come by elsewhere.
Meanwhile, with such a vast array of attacking talent, you are best focusing your transfers there.

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Player	Probability	Odds	Team	Position
Erling Haaland	72%	1.38	MCI	FWD
Mohamed Salah	57%	1.75	LIV	MID
Julian Alvarez	56%	1.8	MCI	FWD
Darwin Nunez	54%	1.84	LIV	FWD
Diego Jota	50%	2	LIV	MID
Ollie Watkins	47%	2.12	AVL	FWD
Bryan Mbeumo	47%	2.14	BRE	MID
Phil Foden	45%	2.23	MCI	MID
Luis Díaz	43%	2.32	LIV	MID
Son Heung-Min	42%	2.38	TOT	MID
Sasa Kalajdzic	38%	2.6	WOL	FWD
Ansu Fati	38%	2.63	BHA	MID
Rasmus Højlund	38%	2.65	MUN	FWD
Callum Wilson	38%	2.65	NEW	FWD
Evan Ferguson	37%	2.7	BHA	FWD
Odsonne Edouard	36%	2.8	CRY	FWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta	36%	2.8	CRY	FWD
Marcus Rashford	36%	2.8	MUN	MID
Cameron Archer	35%	2.88	SHU	FWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	34%	2.9	EVE	FWD
Jeremy Doku	34%	2.9	MCI	MID
Bernardo Silva	34%	2.9	MCI	MID
Taiwo Awoniyi	34%	2.9	NFO	FWD
Hee-Chan Hwang	34%	2.9	WOL	MID
Kaoru Mitoma	34%	2.95	BHA	MID
James Maddison	33%	3	TOT	MID
Arnaout Danjuma	33%	3.05	EVE	MID
Carlos Vinicius	33%	3.05	FUL	FWD
Cody Gakpo	33%	3.05	LIV	FWD
Richarlison	33%	3.05	TOT	FWD
Yoane Wissa	32%	3.15	BRE	FWD
Eddie Nketiah	31%	3.2	ARS	FWD
Jack Grealish	30%	3.3	MCI	MID
Bukayo Saka	30%	3.35	ARS	MID
Neal Maupay	30%	3.35	BRE	FWD
Raheem Sterling	30%	3.35	CHE	MID
João Pedro	29%	3.4	BHA	FWD
Bruno Fernandes	29%	3.45	MUN	MID
Moussa Diaby	28%	3.55	AVL	MID
Nicolas Jackson	27%	3.65	CHE	FWD
Carlton Morris	27%	3.7	LUT	FWD
Alex Mac Allister	27%	3.75	LIV	MID
Jarrod Bowen	27%	3.75	WHU	MID
Danny Ings	26%	3.8	WHU	FWD
Zeki Amdouni	25%	3.95	BUR	FWD
Jay Rodriguez	25%	4	BUR	FWD
Lyle Foster	24%	4.1	BUR	FWD
Benson	24%	4.2	BUR	MID
Armando Broja	24%	4.2	CHE	FWD
Leon Bailey	24%	4.25	AVL	MID
Palmer Cole	24%	4.25	CHE	MID
Gabriel Martinelli	23%	4.4	ARS	MID
Rodri	22%	4.5	MCI	MID
Anthony Martial	22%	4.5	MUN	FWD
Leandro Trossard	22%	4.6	ARS	MID
Michail Antonio	22%	4.6	WHU	FWD
Raúl Jiménez	21%	4.75	FUL	FWD
Antony	21%	4.75	MUN	MID
Dejan Kulusevski	21%	4.75	TOT	MID
Martin Odegaard	20%	4.9	ARS	MID
Morgan Gibbs-White	20%	5	NFO	FWD
Said Benrahma	20%	5.1	WHU	MID
Miguel Almiron	19%	5.3	NEW	MID
Pascal Gross	19%	5.4	BHA	MID
Anass Zaroury	18%	5.6	BUR	MID
Bobby Reid	18%	5.6	FUL	MID
Rhian Brewster	18%	5.6	SHU	FWD
Harry Wilson	17%	5.8	FUL	MID
Mason Mount	17%	5.8	MUN	MID
Kai Havertz	17%	6	ARS	MID
Joe Willock	16%	6.1	NEW	MID
Dominic Solanke	16%	6.25	BOU	FWD
Jordan Ayew	16%	6.25	CRY	MID
Anthony Gordon	16%	6.4	NEW	MID
Nathan Redmond	15%	6.5	BUR	MID
Elijah Adebayo	15%	6.5	LUT	FWD
Andreas Pereira	15%	6.75	FUL	MID
Conor Gallagher	14%	7	CHE	MID
Kieffer Moore	13%	7.5	BOU	FWD
Mykhaylo Mudryk	13%	7.5	CHE	MID
Christian Eriksen	13%	7.5	MUN	MID
Sander Berge	13%	8	BUR	MID
Bruno Guimaraes	12%	8.5	NEW	MID
Justin Kluivert	11%	9.5	BOU	MID
Declan Rice	8%	12	ARS	MID
Philip Billing	8%	12.5	BOU	MID

Erling Haaland (72%) is by far and away the most heavily favoured in the goal-scoring odds going into Gameweek 11 and with those brave souls who sold the Norwegian a few weeks ago, an afternoon behind the sofa awaits this Saturday.
Despite talk of Man City and Haaland not being at their best, he has managed 13 attacking returns (11 goals, 2 assists) in ten starts and it feels like City are only just about to hit top gear.
Bournemouth meanwhile are 18th for goals conceded, shots on target conceded and big chances conceded, as well as also sitting 19th for xG conceded.
Haaland captain is a no brainer this gameweek.

Mohammed Salah (56%) continued his good form this season with a goal at home to Nottingham Forest last weekend. The Egyptian winger has now returned in every game bar one this season (away at Spurs).
This week he takes on Luton Town who have conceded six in their last three games and have a notable weakness down their left hand side. 19th for big chances conceded, as well as 18th for xGC means Mo is another easy inclusion in our lineup this weekend.

Speaking of another man in form, Darwin Nunez (54%) has returned in every game he has started this season and looks undroppable at the minute, scoring a worldie in the Carabao Cup during the week. He is top amongst forwards for non-penalty xGI per 90 as well as second for big chances per 90.

With three Manchester City players already in the team, Julian Alvarez (56%) misses out in favour of Ollie Watkins (47%) who let more than a few down with a blank at home to Luton Town in Gameweek 10. In that game he accumulated an xGI of 1.40 which suggests those that went there were unlucky.
This week he takes on an out of form Nottingham Forest, without a win in six who are conceding the majority of their chances through the centre.
There will always be days of great frustration with Watkins but there will always be more chances to come for him.

Bryan Mbeumo (47%) stung a lot of sellers last week as he returned double digits for the second week in a row away at Chelsea.
This week he and Brentford host West Ham who have shipped seven goals in their last three games and will be without Paqueta and Edson Alvarez with Kurt Zouma also doubtful.
The Cameroon international is top amongst all midfielders for non-penalty expected goals and remains great value at £6.7m.

Heung-min Son (42%) is another man in form with nine returns (8 goals, 1 assist) in his last seven games since moving into the centre forward role.
This week he takes on Chelsea who despite having good underlying defensive numbers continue to look vulnerable.

On the bench for us this week is again Marvelous Nakamba (£4.4m) as well as Naouirou Ahamada (£4.3m) who are decent budget enablers.

Team	Clean Sheet Probability	Odds
Man City	64%	1.56
Liverpool	50%	2.02
Wolves	39%	2.55
Aston Villa	36%	2.75
Crystal Palace	35%	2.88
Man Utd	33%	3
Brentford	32%	3.1
Burnley	32%	3.1
Arsenal	32%	3.15
Tottenham	31%	3.2
Newcastle	29%	3.45
Brighton	28%	3.6
Fulham	24%	4.2
Sheffield Utd	23%	4.3
West Ham	23%	4.4
Chelsea	22%	4.5
Everton	20%	4.9
Nottingham Forest	19%	5.25
Luton	7%	14
Bournemouth	6%	18

Manchester City (64%) kept their fourth clean sheet of the season in an utterly dominant display at Old Trafford in Gameweek 10 and as we may be about to see Man City hit top form defensively.
This weekend should be no trouble as they host Bournemouth, who picked up their first win last weekend, but face a very tough afternoon this Saturday. Just eight goals all season leaves the Cherries joint 17th for goal scored and while their expected goals is slightly higher (9.12) they’re goal scoring record against top six sides is one goal in four games.
Stones’ (£5.3m) slightly more advanced position makes him an attractive buy this gameweek, while Kyle Walker is the highest scoring City defender so makes sense as a safe bet for the double up.

Liverpool (50%) also seem to be coming into their own defensively of late, with two clean sheets in their last two games, they will be confident of adding to that this weekend when they travel to Luton Town.
Just four goals from open play illustrates the difficulties the Hatters have been having in attack so far this year and this weekend won’t be any easier.
Klopp’s men have conceded just 0.58 xG over the last two gameweeks and conceded just one big chance in that time.
Kostas Tsmikas seems like a gift from the FPL gods, even at £4.6m and he takes his place once again in our team this week.

Wolves (39%) are another side that has been doing surprisingly well of late, with Gary O’Neill really starting to get the most out of his group. Still, just one clean sheet so far this season is hardly inspiring.
But usually the odds favour you when you are playing the worst attacking side in the league. The Blunt Blades received another heavy defeat at the hands of Arsenal and remain bottom of the league in terms of every attacking metric available.
Jose Sa gets the nod for us this week. Second for saves among all keepers with 44, the potential for a haul is always there.

Aston Villa (36%) have been poor defensively of late, with no clean sheets in their last four, though they can consider themselves unlucky not to have got one last time out against Luton as they conceded from just 0.11 xG.
This week they travel to Nottingham Forest who may still be without talismanic striker Taiwo Awoniyi. They have hit a stumbling block of late in attack, no wins in six and failing to score in three of those.
Matty Cash hasn’t continued the rampaging right back role we saw so early in the season but still looks like the danger man from this Aston Villa defence.

On the bench for us in defence this week is Thomas Strakosha (£3.9m) as well as George Baldock (£3.8m) who are the cheapest fodder options in their respective positions.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here