Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 11

Gameweek 10 delivered our second 90+ points tally in a row as five of our front six returned, as well as three of our back five, though we did get a mighty slice of luck with Charlie Taylor coming off the bench for Gabriel.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

This week, the Bookies favour attack over defence with two plum fixtures for Man City and Liverpool, it seems clean sheets will be hard to come by elsewhere.
Meanwhile, with such a vast array of attacking talent, you are best focusing your transfers there.

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Goalscoring odds gameweek 11

Erling Haaland72%1.38MCIFWD
Mohamed Salah57%1.75LIVMID
Julian Alvarez56%1.8MCIFWD
Darwin Nunez54%1.84LIVFWD
Diego Jota50%2LIVMID
Ollie Watkins47%2.12AVLFWD
Bryan Mbeumo47%2.14BREMID
Phil Foden45%2.23MCIMID
Luis Díaz43%2.32LIVMID
Son Heung-Min42%2.38TOTMID
Sasa Kalajdzic38%2.6WOLFWD
Ansu Fati38%2.63BHAMID
Rasmus Højlund38%2.65MUNFWD
Callum Wilson38%2.65NEWFWD
Evan Ferguson37%2.7BHAFWD
Odsonne Edouard36%2.8CRYFWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta36%2.8CRYFWD
Marcus Rashford36%2.8MUNMID
Cameron Archer35%2.88SHUFWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin34%2.9EVEFWD
Jeremy Doku34%2.9MCIMID
Bernardo Silva34%2.9MCIMID
Taiwo Awoniyi34%2.9NFOFWD
Hee-Chan Hwang34%2.9WOLMID
Kaoru Mitoma34%2.95BHAMID
James Maddison33%3TOTMID
Arnaout Danjuma33%3.05EVEMID
Carlos Vinicius33%3.05FULFWD
Cody Gakpo33%3.05LIVFWD
Yoane Wissa32%3.15BREFWD
Eddie Nketiah31%3.2ARSFWD
Jack Grealish30%3.3MCIMID
Bukayo Saka30%3.35ARSMID
Neal Maupay30%3.35BREFWD
Raheem Sterling30%3.35CHEMID
João Pedro29%3.4BHAFWD
Bruno Fernandes29%3.45MUNMID
Moussa Diaby28%3.55AVLMID
Nicolas Jackson27%3.65CHEFWD
Carlton Morris27%3.7LUTFWD
Alex Mac Allister27%3.75LIVMID
Jarrod Bowen27%3.75WHUMID
Danny Ings26%3.8WHUFWD
Zeki Amdouni25%3.95BURFWD
Jay Rodriguez25%4BURFWD
Lyle Foster24%4.1BURFWD
Armando Broja24%4.2CHEFWD
Leon Bailey24%4.25AVLMID
Palmer Cole24%4.25CHEMID
Gabriel Martinelli23%4.4ARSMID
Anthony Martial22%4.5MUNFWD
Leandro Trossard22%4.6ARSMID
Michail Antonio22%4.6WHUFWD
Raúl Jiménez21%4.75FULFWD
Dejan Kulusevski21%4.75TOTMID
Martin Odegaard20%4.9ARSMID
Morgan Gibbs-White20%5NFOFWD
Said Benrahma20%5.1WHUMID
Miguel Almiron19%5.3NEWMID
Pascal Gross19%5.4BHAMID
Anass Zaroury18%5.6BURMID
Bobby Reid18%5.6FULMID
Rhian Brewster18%5.6SHUFWD
Harry Wilson17%5.8FULMID
Mason Mount17%5.8MUNMID
Kai Havertz17%6ARSMID
Joe Willock16%6.1NEWMID
Dominic Solanke16%6.25BOUFWD
Jordan Ayew16%6.25CRYMID
Anthony Gordon16%6.4NEWMID
Nathan Redmond15%6.5BURMID
Elijah Adebayo15%6.5LUTFWD
Andreas Pereira15%6.75FULMID
Conor Gallagher14%7CHEMID
Kieffer Moore13%7.5BOUFWD
Mykhaylo Mudryk13%7.5CHEMID
Christian Eriksen13%7.5MUNMID
Sander Berge13%8BURMID
Bruno Guimaraes12%8.5NEWMID
Justin Kluivert11%9.5BOUMID
Declan Rice8%12ARSMID
Philip Billing8%12.5BOUMID
Goalscorer odds gameweek 11

Erling Haaland (72%) is by far and away the most heavily favoured in the goal-scoring odds going into Gameweek 11 and with those brave souls who sold the Norwegian a few weeks ago, an afternoon behind the sofa awaits this Saturday.
Despite talk of Man City and Haaland not being at their best, he has managed 13 attacking returns (11 goals, 2 assists) in ten starts and it feels like City are only just about to hit top gear.
Bournemouth meanwhile are 18th for goals conceded, shots on target conceded and big chances conceded, as well as also sitting 19th for xG conceded.
Haaland captain is a no brainer this gameweek.

Mohammed Salah (56%) continued his good form this season with a goal at home to Nottingham Forest last weekend. The Egyptian winger has now returned in every game bar one this season (away at Spurs).
This week he takes on Luton Town who have conceded six in their last three games and have a notable weakness down their left hand side. 19th for big chances conceded, as well as 18th for xGC means Mo is another easy inclusion in our lineup this weekend.

Speaking of another man in form, Darwin Nunez (54%) has returned in every game he has started this season and looks undroppable at the minute, scoring a worldie in the Carabao Cup during the week. He is top amongst forwards for non-penalty xGI per 90 as well as second for big chances per 90.

With three Manchester City players already in the team, Julian Alvarez (56%) misses out in favour of Ollie Watkins (47%) who let more than a few down with a blank at home to Luton Town in Gameweek 10. In that game he accumulated an xGI of 1.40 which suggests those that went there were unlucky.
This week he takes on an out of form Nottingham Forest, without a win in six who are conceding the majority of their chances through the centre.
There will always be days of great frustration with Watkins but there will always be more chances to come for him.

Bryan Mbeumo (47%) stung a lot of sellers last week as he returned double digits for the second week in a row away at Chelsea.
This week he and Brentford host West Ham who have shipped seven goals in their last three games and will be without Paqueta and Edson Alvarez with Kurt Zouma also doubtful.
The Cameroon international is top amongst all midfielders for non-penalty expected goals and remains great value at £6.7m.

Heung-min Son (42%) is another man in form with nine returns (8 goals, 1 assist) in his last seven games since moving into the centre forward role.
This week he takes on Chelsea who despite having good underlying defensive numbers continue to look vulnerable.

On the bench for us this week is again Marvelous Nakamba (£4.4m) as well as Naouirou Ahamada (£4.3m) who are decent budget enablers.

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Clean sheet odds gameweek 11

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City64%1.56
Aston Villa36%2.75
Crystal Palace35%2.88
Man Utd33%3
Sheffield Utd23%4.3
West Ham23%4.4
Nottingham Forest19%5.25
Clean sheet odds gameweek 11

Manchester City (64%) kept their fourth clean sheet of the season in an utterly dominant display at Old Trafford in Gameweek 10 and as we may be about to see Man City hit top form defensively.
This weekend should be no trouble as they host Bournemouth, who picked up their first win last weekend, but face a very tough afternoon this Saturday. Just eight goals all season leaves the Cherries joint 17th for goal scored and while their expected goals is slightly higher (9.12) they’re goal scoring record against top six sides is one goal in four games.
Stones’ (£5.3m) slightly more advanced position makes him an attractive buy this gameweek, while Kyle Walker is the highest scoring City defender so makes sense as a safe bet for the double up.

Liverpool (50%) also seem to be coming into their own defensively of late, with two clean sheets in their last two games, they will be confident of adding to that this weekend when they travel to Luton Town.
Just four goals from open play illustrates the difficulties the Hatters have been having in attack so far this year and this weekend won’t be any easier.
Klopp’s men have conceded just 0.58 xG over the last two gameweeks and conceded just one big chance in that time.
Kostas Tsmikas seems like a gift from the FPL gods, even at £4.6m and he takes his place once again in our team this week.

Wolves (39%) are another side that has been doing surprisingly well of late, with Gary O’Neill really starting to get the most out of his group. Still, just one clean sheet so far this season is hardly inspiring.
But usually the odds favour you when you are playing the worst attacking side in the league. The Blunt Blades received another heavy defeat at the hands of Arsenal and remain bottom of the league in terms of every attacking metric available.
Jose Sa gets the nod for us this week. Second for saves among all keepers with 44, the potential for a haul is always there.

Aston Villa (36%) have been poor defensively of late, with no clean sheets in their last four, though they can consider themselves unlucky not to have got one last time out against Luton as they conceded from just 0.11 xG.
This week they travel to Nottingham Forest who may still be without talismanic striker Taiwo Awoniyi. They have hit a stumbling block of late in attack, no wins in six and failing to score in three of those.
Matty Cash hasn’t continued the rampaging right back role we saw so early in the season but still looks like the danger man from this Aston Villa defence.

On the bench for us in defence this week is Thomas Strakosha (£3.9m) as well as George Baldock (£3.8m) who are the cheapest fodder options in their respective positions.

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Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here