Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 11

This week is a real headache for many fantasy managers, with injuries and a blank gameweek looming. However, when things are difficult, you have an opportunity to gain on your opponents.
We have examined the odds and bring you the bookies’ favourite team for gameweek 11. It includes a trio of goal-scoring defenders that can prove explosive replacements for the injured Reece James or Trent Alexander-Arnold.

In attack, the usual suspects remain at large and are supported by some differential options.

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About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 11

PlayerGoal probabilityOddsTeamPosition
Erling Haaland56%1.77MCIFWD
Harry Kane53%1.9TOTFWD
Aleksandar Mitrovic52%1.91FULFWD
Gabriel Jesus47%2.12ARSFWD
Cristiano Ronaldo45%2.23MUNFWD
Son Heung-Min40%2.48TOTMID
Eddie Nketiah39%2.55ARSFWD
Julian Alvarez38%2.6MCIFWD
Jamie Vardy37%2.7LEIFWD
Diego Costa37%2.7WOLFWD
Goncalo Guedes37%2.7WOLMID
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang36%2.75CHEFWD
Carlos Vinicius36%2.8FULFWD
Ivan Toney35%2.85BREFWD
Patson Daka35%2.88LEIFWD
Kelechi Iheanacho33%3.05LEIFWD
Gabriel Martinelli33%3.05ARSMID
Anthony Martial33%3.05MUNFWD
Callum Wilson33%3.05NEWFWD
Marcus Rashford33%3.05MUNMID
Gianluca Scamacca32%3.1WHUFWD
Armando Broja32%3.15CHEFWD
Raheem Sterling32%3.15CHEMID
Wilfried Zaha31%3.2CRYMID
Hwang Hee-Chan31%3.2WOLMID
Bukayo Saka31%3.25ARSMID
Danny Welbeck30%3.3BHAFWD
Mohamed Salah30%3.3LIVMID
Darwin Nunez30%3.35LIVFWD
Odsonne Edouard29%3.4CRYFWD
Alexander Isak29%3.4NEWFWD
Che Adams29%3.45SOUFWD
Bruno Fernandes29%3.45MUNMID
Kai Havertz29%3.45CHEFWD
Deniz Undav29%3.5BREFWD
Dominic Solanke29%3.5BOUFWD
Michail Antonio28%3.55WHUFWD
Phil Foden28%3.55MCIMID
Daniel Podence28%3.6WOLMID
Christian Pulisic28%3.6CHEMID
Jean-Philippe Mateta27%3.65CRYFWD
Diogo Jota27%3.65LIVFWD
James Maddison27%3.7LEIMID
Riyad Mahrez27%3.75MCIMID
Kevin De Bruyne27%3.75MCIMID
Roberto Firmino26%3.8LIVFWD
Martin Odegaard26%3.85ARSMID
Daniel James26%3.9FULMID
Dejan Kulusevski25%3.95TOTMID
Alexis Mac Allister25%4BHAMID
Leandro Trossard25%4BHAMID
Bobby De Cordova-Reid25%4FULMID
Emmanuel Dennis25%4NFOFWD
Taiwo Awoniyi25%4NFOFWD
Fabio Vieira25%4ARSMID
Jarrod Bowen25%4WHUMID
Harvey Barnes24%4.1LEIMID
Patrick Bamford24%4.1LEEFWD
Jadon Sancho24%4.2MUNMID
Yoane Wissa24%4.25BREMID
Kieffer Moore24%4.25BOUFWD
Maxwel Cornet24%4.25WHUMID
Neeskens Kebano23%4.35FULMID
Adam Armstrong23%4.35SOUFWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin23%4.4EVEFWD
Hakim Ziyech23%4.4CHEMID
Mason Mount23%4.4CHEMID
Ollie Watkins22%4.5AVLFWD
Danny Ings22%4.5AVLFWD
Keane Lewis-Potter22%4.6BREMID
Neal Maupay21%4.7EVEFWD
Fabio Carvalho21%4.8LIVMID
Ilkay Gundogan20%4.9MCIMID
Allan Saint-Maximin20%5NEWMID
Conor Gallagher20%5CHEMID
Bryan Mbeumo20%5.1BREFWD
Andreas Pereira19%5.3FULMID
Ivan Perisic19%5.3TOTDEF
Miguel Almiron19%5.3BOUMID
Bernardo Silva19%5.4MCIMID
Luis Sinisterra18%5.5LEEMID
Christian Eriksen18%5.5MUNMID
Jack Grealish18%5.6MCIMID
Philippe Coutinho16%6.25CHEMID
Ryan Christie16%6.4BOUMID
Ryan Sessegnon14%7TOTDEF
Brenden Aaronson13%7.5LEEMID
Joao Cancelo10%10.5MCIDEF
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 11

Erling Haaland (56%) tops the goalscorer odds market this week when he takes on Liverpool at Anfield for what would have once been a top-two clash now looks like another routine Man City victory.
Liverpool were very open last Sunday against Arsenal, mainly down their centre, with Odegaard and Jesus seeing a lot of the ball in those areas. A 1-7 defeat of Rangers in midweek may give Liverpool some hope, but we thought the same of the 9-0 thrashing of Bournemouth, and that proved to be a false dawn.
City, on the other hand, are top of just about every attacking metric, and Haaland is far and away the highest-scoring player in the game. The bookies expect goals for City here, and who are we to question them. So, for the 11th week in a row, Haaland gets the armband.

Mitrovic (52%) is expected to return to action this weekend after an ankle injury kept him out of the squad vs West Ham. The Serbian striker welcomes Bournemouth to Craven Cottage
and will be confident of a return to his early season form. The Fulham forward is 3rd of all strikers for goals scored (6) and 5th for big chances (8), meanwhile, Bournemouth are yet to keep a clean sheet away from home so far this season.

Heung-Min Son (40%) is the most likely premium midfielder to score this week, according to the bookies. Son was unlucky not to return vs Brighton in Gameweek 10 and with a brace midweek in the Champions League, it may just be a sign that the South Korean is finding some form.

Gabriel Martinelli (33%) proved his pedigree last week with a haul against Liverpool as Arsenal remain one of the most in form attacking teams in the league. This weekend they travel to Leeds, which promises to be a tough assignment but one the young guns will feel they are equal to.
He is joined by Arsenal teammate Gabriel Jesus (47%) up front. By rights Harry Kane (53%) should be our 3rd striker but we are already maxed out on Spurs players as will be seen late in the defence. Jesus is the 5th highest scoring forward with 9 returns in 9 games. Leeds defensive form has slipped lately and the Brazilian number 9 can take advantage of that.

Surprisingly, Goncalo Guedes (37%) and Marcus Rashford (33%) make it in our squad as 3rd and 4th midfielders. Wolves attacking form has been woeful, though Guedes has provided something of a spark. Nottingham Forest’s defensive form has been equally as awful so it seems the bookies are backing the home team to come out on top.
Rashford was very unlucky to have his goal ruled out by VAR last week and has been the inspiration for Man United’s recent revival. He seems their most likely route to goal.

Andreas (19%) remains the budget midfielder of choice, with a goal off our bench last week.

Clean sheet odds Gameweek 11

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man Utd31%3.2
West Ham29%3.5
Man City27%3.75
Crystal Palace24%4.25
Aston Villa20%4.9
Nottingham Forest20%5
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 11

Top of the charts for clean sheet odds this week are Spurs (47%). Antonio Conte’s men returned to winning ways after a derby day demolition and held on to their clean sheet vs an attacking Brighton outfit.
This week they welcome Everton to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, who will be without one of their main attacking threats in Anthony Gordon who is suspended after picking up five yellow cards.
Spurs sit 3rd for expected goals conceded at home this season and have looked really solid in their defence first approach under Conte.
Eric Dier is 4th highest scoring defender in FPL with 39 points. The Spurs centre half has grabbed two goals with his head as yet and will be looking for more vs an Everton side who are bottom of the league for headed attempts conceded and chances conceded from set- pieces.
He is joined in a defensive double up with Matt Doherty. The Irishman has been in the cold to start the season but with Royal suspended, he’s guaranteed his place. He showed last season that he always has a chance of hauling when he starts.

Surprisingly, Wolves (45%) are the second most likely to record a clean sheet going into Gameweek 11. Despite their woeful attacking form, Wolves have been solid in defence, with just 3 more goals conceded than Man City thus far. They also sit joint 3rd, alongside Arsenal, for Big Chances Conceded (12).
Their opponent could have something to do with their high odds this week. Nottingham Forest have scored just one goal away from home this season, at Everton in Gameweek 3.
Jose Sa is the second highest scoring goalkeeper in FPL right now, just a point behind Nick Pope. He’s managed 3 clean sheets and 28 saves (resulting in 7 save points). So he gets the nod from us between the sticks this week.

Lastly, Chelsea (41%) will be hoping for only their 3rd clean sheet of the season when they travel to Aston Villa on Sunday. Graham Potter looks to have whipped this Chelsea side into shape with 5 games unbeaten, including two clean sheets in Europe vs AC Milan.
Steven Gerrard, on the other hand, is a man under pressure. Aston Villa looked blunt in attack Monday night vs Forest, and scoring against the Blues will be a much more challenging assignment.
Villa conceded again from a set piece on Monday night. They are notoriously bad at defending these situations. For this reason, we’ve gone for Kalidou Koulibaly for his aerial threat.

On the bench we’ve gone for Tosin Adarabioyo of Fulham (37%) who sit 5th most likely for a clean sheet this weekend vs Bournemouth, and Josh Wilson-Esbrand (£3.8m) of Manchester City due to his low low price.

Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 11

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.

You can follow him on Twitter here

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