This week is a real headache for many fantasy managers, with injuries and a blank gameweek looming. However, when things are difficult, you have an opportunity to gain on your opponents.
We have examined the odds and bring you the bookies’ favourite team for gameweek 11. It includes a trio of goal-scoring defenders that can prove explosive replacements for the injured Reece James or Trent Alexander-Arnold.
In attack, the usual suspects remain at large and are supported by some differential options.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 11
|Kevin De Bruyne||27%||3.75||MCI||MID|
|Alexis Mac Allister||25%||4||BHA||MID|
|Bobby De Cordova-Reid||25%||4||FUL||MID|
Erling Haaland (56%) tops the goalscorer odds market this week when he takes on Liverpool at Anfield for what would have once been a top-two clash now looks like another routine Man City victory.
Liverpool were very open last Sunday against Arsenal, mainly down their centre, with Odegaard and Jesus seeing a lot of the ball in those areas. A 1-7 defeat of Rangers in midweek may give Liverpool some hope, but we thought the same of the 9-0 thrashing of Bournemouth, and that proved to be a false dawn.
City, on the other hand, are top of just about every attacking metric, and Haaland is far and away the highest-scoring player in the game. The bookies expect goals for City here, and who are we to question them. So, for the 11th week in a row, Haaland gets the armband.
Mitrovic (52%) is expected to return to action this weekend after an ankle injury kept him out of the squad vs West Ham. The Serbian striker welcomes Bournemouth to Craven Cottage
and will be confident of a return to his early season form. The Fulham forward is 3rd of all strikers for goals scored (6) and 5th for big chances (8), meanwhile, Bournemouth are yet to keep a clean sheet away from home so far this season.
Heung-Min Son (40%) is the most likely premium midfielder to score this week, according to the bookies. Son was unlucky not to return vs Brighton in Gameweek 10 and with a brace midweek in the Champions League, it may just be a sign that the South Korean is finding some form.
Gabriel Martinelli (33%) proved his pedigree last week with a haul against Liverpool as Arsenal remain one of the most in form attacking teams in the league. This weekend they travel to Leeds, which promises to be a tough assignment but one the young guns will feel they are equal to.
He is joined by Arsenal teammate Gabriel Jesus (47%) up front. By rights Harry Kane (53%) should be our 3rd striker but we are already maxed out on Spurs players as will be seen late in the defence. Jesus is the 5th highest scoring forward with 9 returns in 9 games. Leeds defensive form has slipped lately and the Brazilian number 9 can take advantage of that.
Surprisingly, Goncalo Guedes (37%) and Marcus Rashford (33%) make it in our squad as 3rd and 4th midfielders. Wolves attacking form has been woeful, though Guedes has provided something of a spark. Nottingham Forest’s defensive form has been equally as awful so it seems the bookies are backing the home team to come out on top.
Rashford was very unlucky to have his goal ruled out by VAR last week and has been the inspiration for Man United’s recent revival. He seems their most likely route to goal.
Andreas (19%) remains the budget midfielder of choice, with a goal off our bench last week.
Clean sheet odds Gameweek 11
|Team||Clean Sheet Probability||Odds|
Top of the charts for clean sheet odds this week are Spurs (47%). Antonio Conte’s men returned to winning ways after a derby day demolition and held on to their clean sheet vs an attacking Brighton outfit.
This week they welcome Everton to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, who will be without one of their main attacking threats in Anthony Gordon who is suspended after picking up five yellow cards.
Spurs sit 3rd for expected goals conceded at home this season and have looked really solid in their defence first approach under Conte.
Eric Dier is 4th highest scoring defender in FPL with 39 points. The Spurs centre half has grabbed two goals with his head as yet and will be looking for more vs an Everton side who are bottom of the league for headed attempts conceded and chances conceded from set- pieces.
He is joined in a defensive double up with Matt Doherty. The Irishman has been in the cold to start the season but with Royal suspended, he’s guaranteed his place. He showed last season that he always has a chance of hauling when he starts.
Surprisingly, Wolves (45%) are the second most likely to record a clean sheet going into Gameweek 11. Despite their woeful attacking form, Wolves have been solid in defence, with just 3 more goals conceded than Man City thus far. They also sit joint 3rd, alongside Arsenal, for Big Chances Conceded (12).
Their opponent could have something to do with their high odds this week. Nottingham Forest have scored just one goal away from home this season, at Everton in Gameweek 3.
Jose Sa is the second highest scoring goalkeeper in FPL right now, just a point behind Nick Pope. He’s managed 3 clean sheets and 28 saves (resulting in 7 save points). So he gets the nod from us between the sticks this week.
Lastly, Chelsea (41%) will be hoping for only their 3rd clean sheet of the season when they travel to Aston Villa on Sunday. Graham Potter looks to have whipped this Chelsea side into shape with 5 games unbeaten, including two clean sheets in Europe vs AC Milan.
Steven Gerrard, on the other hand, is a man under pressure. Aston Villa looked blunt in attack Monday night vs Forest, and scoring against the Blues will be a much more challenging assignment.
Villa conceded again from a set piece on Monday night. They are notoriously bad at defending these situations. For this reason, we’ve gone for Kalidou Koulibaly for his aerial threat.
On the bench we’ve gone for Tosin Adarabioyo of Fulham (37%) who sit 5th most likely for a clean sheet this weekend vs Bournemouth, and Josh Wilson-Esbrand (£3.8m) of Manchester City due to his low low price.
Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 11
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.
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