Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 12

The less said about last gameweek the better. A dismal display resulting in 25 points with just two returns coming from a John Stones clean sheet (thanks to an early sub) and Bryan Mbeumo’s assist made it a gameweek to forget for us and most other FPL managers alike.

Looking ahead to Gameweek 12, a few flattering fixtures mean former favourites emerging as genuine options. Mostly, it’s business as usual at the back but with a couple of interesting differentials in attack, the Bookies XI looks primed and ready for the weekend ahead.

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Goalscorer odds Gameweek 12

Erling Haaland61%1.65MCIFWD
Ansu Fati54%1.84BHAMID
Mohamed Salah52%1.92LIVMID
Eddie Nketiah52%1.94ARSFWD
Bukayo Saka52%1.94ARSMID
Evan Ferguson51%1.98BHAFWD
Ollie Watkins48%2.1AVLFWD
Marcus Rashford48%2.1MUNMID
Darwin Nunez47%2.12LIVFWD
Kaoru Mitoma47%2.14BHAMID
Diego Jota45%2.23LIVMID
Callum Wilson44%2.25NEWFWD
Son Heung-Min44%2.25TOTMID
Rasmus Højlund42%2.38MUNFWD
Gabriel Martinelli41%2.45ARSMID
João Pedro41%2.45BHAFWD
Bruno Fernandes41%2.45MUNMID
Luis Díaz38%2.65LIVMID
Odsonne Edouard36%2.8CRYFWD
Julian Alvarez35%2.88MCIFWD
Jarrod Bowen35%2.88WHUMID
Jean-Philippe Mateta34%2.95CRYFWD
Taiwo Awoniyi34%2.95NFOFWD
Leandro Trossard33%3.05ARSMID
Kai Havertz33%3.05ARSMID
Danny Ings33%3.05WHUFWD
Anthony Martial32%3.1MUNFWD
James Maddison32%3.1TOTMID
Sasa Kalajdzic32%3.1WOLFWD
Martin Odegaard31%3.2ARSMID
Moussa Diaby31%3.25AVLMID
Dominic Solanke31%3.25BOUFWD
Carlos Vinicius29%3.4FULFWD
Phil Foden29%3.4MCIMID
Michail Antonio29%3.45WHUFWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin28%3.55EVEFWD
Cody Gakpo28%3.55LIVFWD
Miguel Almiron28%3.55NEWMID
Hee-Chan Hwang28%3.55WOLMID
Bryan Mbeumo28%3.6BREMID
Leon Bailey27%3.65AVLMID
Pascal Gross27%3.65BHAMID
Cameron Archer27%3.65SHUFWD
Arnaout Danjuma27%3.75EVEMID
Kieffer Moore26%3.9BOUFWD
Raheem Sterling25%3.95CHEMID
Carlton Morris25%3.95LUTFWD
Said Benrahma25%3.95WHUMID
Mason Mount25%4MUNMID
Eberechi Eze24%4.2CRYMID
Joe Willock24%4.2NEWMID
Anthony Gordon24%4.2NEWMID
Nicolas Jackson23%4.4CHEFWD
Raúl Jiménez23%4.4FULFWD
Yoane Wissa22%4.5BREFWD
Justin Kluivert22%4.6BOUMID
Jeremy Doku22%4.6MCIMID
Dejan Kulusevski22%4.6TOTMID
Christian Eriksen21%4.8MUNMID
Palmer Cole20%5CHEMID
Morgan Gibbs-White20%5.1NFOFWD
William Osula20%5.1SHUFWD
Armando Broja19%5.3CHEFWD
Bernardo Silva19%5.4MCIMID
Neal Maupay17%5.8BREFWD
Bobby Reid17%5.8FULMID
Jack Grealish17%5.8MCIMID
Elijah Adebayo17%6LUTFWD
Declan Rice16%6.25ARSMID
Harry Wilson16%6.4FULMID
Jordan Ayew15%6.5CRYMID
Rhian Brewster15%6.75SHUFWD
Keane Lewis-Potter14%7BREMID
Cauley Woodrow14%7LUTFWD
Andreas Pereira13%8FULMID
Conor Gallagher11%9CHEMID
Mykhaylo Mudryk11%9.5CHEMID
Virgil van Dijk10%10LIVDEF
Trent Alexander-Arnold9%11LIVDEF
Goalscorer odds gameweek 12

Erling Haaland (61%) followed up his triple return in Gameweek 10 with a dismal one point, even as Man City ran out 6-1 winners against Bournemouth. The City striker was subbed at half-time due to injury but made a swift return in the Champions League midweek netting a brace.

This Sunday afternoon he travels to Stamford Bridge to play a very up-and-down Chelsea side with mixed results of late and looked woeful against a Spurs side even down to nine men.

By far top for goals scored (11), big chances (19) and shots on target (22), the Bookies are backing the goal-scoring machine that is Erling Haaland to sweep the Blues aside in Gameweek 12.

Mohammed Salah (52%) drew an unlikely blank against Luton Town having just two shots, neither of which were on target but did create two big chances which Darwin Nunez duly wasted.

This week he takes on Brentford at Anfield as Liverpool hope to get back to winning ways, and with the Reds and Salah’s imperious home record, the Bookies fancy him to score. Blanking just once in his last 14 matches at home in a run stretching back to January of this year shows why the Egyptian is more likely than not to score this weekend.

Bukayo Saka (52%) hobbled off midweek after scoring one and assisting another in the Champions League. Mikel Arteta and FPL managers alike will be hoping he’s fit and firing in time for the Gunners game against Burnley this weekend with the Arsenal boss describing the injury as “just a kick”.

Burnley are 18th for goals conceded this season with 27 goals and so far no clean sheets and though Arsenal’s underlying attacking data, the Gunners have managed 15 goals in six home matches (3rd) just one less than Manchester City.

With Eddie Nketiah (52%) an injury doubt, Evan Ferguson (51%) looks a better pick as the Irishman seems favoured in Premier League games following European matches, starting the last four.

Sheffield United are statistically the worst defence in the league and with the Seagulls scoring 14 goals in six home games this season, Ferguson looks worth a punt.

Ollie Watkins (48%) now comes off the back of two blanks in a row but will be looking to put that right when he and Villa welcome Fulham this weekend. 20 goals in five home games makes the Villains the best home attack in the league.

Marco Silva’s side have conceded 10 in six away games (13th), 18 big chances (16th) as well as 11.44 expected goals (18th).

Marcus Rashford (48%) will be well rested after his 42nd minute red card on Wednesday night. The Red Devils winger has had an underwhelming season so far but with Luton Town at home this week, the Bookies are backing Rashford to break out of his funk. It’s a risky bet, but one we’re willing to roll the dice on this week.

On the bench for us in attack this weekend is Simon Adingra (£5.0m), as well as Naouirou Ahamada (£4.3m)

Clean sheet odds Gameweek 12

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man Utd49%2.06
Aston Villa43%2.35
Man City41%2.43
West Ham38%2.65
Crystal Palace36%2.75
Nottingham Forest19%5.2
Sheffield Utd8%12
Clean sheet odds gameweek 12

Arsenal (58%) have conceded just 0.61 expected goals in their last two games against Newcastle and Sevilla, and will consider themselves unlucky not to have kept a clean sheet away at the Magpies last weekend.

This weekend they welcome Burnley, who have drawn a blank in five of their 11 games this season and will be without striker Lyle Foster again. Vincent Kompany’s side sit 19th for goals, expected goals and big chances created in all away games so far this season. Despite questionable performances of late, David Raya (£4.8m) is expected to get the nod, he’s joined by William Saliba (£5.2m) who looks the most nailed in this Arsenal defence at the minute.

Brighton (50%) are still without a clean sheet in the league so far this season and they won’t have a better chance when they welcome Sheffield United to the Amex this weekend. Despite the Blades getting their first three points last weekend they still managed just 0.18 xG from open play and remain rock bottom of all attacking metrics.

Brighton will feel hard done by not having a clean sheet as yet, conceding just one goal on seven occasions and conceding a total of 20 goals from an xGC of 16.27.

Pervis Estupinan (£5.0m) is fit again. Starting the season with over 50% ownership he now sits at 19%. He could make a shrewd pick this gameweek.

Manchester United (48%) (no seriously hear me out) kept their first clean sheet in five games last weekend for their trip to Fulham and were 2-0 up and cruising before a red card changed the game on Wednesday.

A home game against Luton Town is the perfect tonic for their midweek woes and the Bookies still fancy them for a clean sheet. The Hatters have scored just two goals from open play in their six away games so far this season.

Harry Maguire (no seriously hear me out) looks a bargain at just £4.2m, a bonus point magnet with a threat from set-pieces makes him the best pick in this United defence.

Aston Villa (42%) are another side highly rated by the Bookies despite a poor defensive record. No clean sheets in their last five games despite a nice run of fixtures has managers feeling a change maybe needed, but the Bookies are counselling patience for one more week as Unai Emery’s side welcome Fulham on Sunday, who have been weak in attack all season, failing to score in five of their 11 games and scoring just one on three other occasions.

Matty Cash (£5.2m) remains top of the charts for xGI among defenders and while his zero pointer last weekend is frustrating, he is worth holding at least one more week.

On the bench for us this weekend in defence we have Alphonse Areola (£4.3m) who’s been struggling for clean sheets of late, as well as Jamaal Lascelles who looks a steal at £4.0m with Sven Botman out.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here