A blank gameweek for the Premier League’s top two provides a much-needed shake-up. With five gameweeks until the World Cup, a few well-timed differentials could make a big difference, and this week, our lineup includes quite a few.
Read on to find the perfect Maddison and James replacements.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Goalscorer odds gameweek 12
| Player | Goal probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Mohamed Salah | 56% | 1.8 | LIV | MID |
| Darwin Nunez | 51% | 1.95 | LIV | FWD |
| Jamie Vardy | 50% | 2 | LEI | FWD |
| Callum Wilson | 48% | 2.1 | NEW | FWD |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 48% | 2.1 | CHE | FWD |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 48% | 2.1 | MUN | FWD |
| Roberto Firmino | 45% | 2.2 | LIV | FWD |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | 45% | 2.2 | FUL | FWD |
| Patson Daka | 43% | 2.3 | LEI | FWD |
| Danny Welbeck | 42% | 2.4 | BHA | FWD |
| Chris Wood | 42% | 2.4 | NEW | FWD |
| Harry Kane | 42% | 2.4 | TOT | FWD |
| Kelechi Iheanacho | 42% | 2.4 | LEI | FWD |
| Son Heung-Min | 38% | 2.6 | TOT | MID |
| Patrick Bamford | 38% | 2.6 | LEE | FWD |
| Odsonne Edouard | 37% | 2.7 | CRY | FWD |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 37% | 2.7 | CRY | FWD |
| Armando Broja | 37% | 2.7 | CHE | FWD |
| Kai Havertz | 37% | 2.7 | CHE | FWD |
| Anthony Martial | 36% | 2.8 | MUN | FWD |
| Ollie Watkins | 36% | 2.8 | AVL | FWD |
| Danny Ings | 36% | 2.8 | AVL | FWD |
| Deniz Undav | 34% | 2.9 | BHA | FWD |
| Fabio Carvalho | 34% | 2.9 | LIV | MID |
| Dominic Solanke | 34% | 2.9 | BOU | FWD |
| Wilfried Zaha | 33% | 3 | CRY | MID |
| Raheem Sterling | 33% | 3 | CHE | MID |
| Philippe Coutinho | 33% | 3 | AVL | MID |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 32% | 3.1 | BHA | MID |
| Leandro Trossard | 32% | 3.1 | BHA | MID |
| Christian Pulisic | 32% | 3.1 | CHE | MID |
| Che Adams | 31% | 3.2 | SOU | FWD |
| Adam Armstrong | 31% | 3.2 | SOU | FWD |
| Ivan Toney | 31% | 3.2 | BRE | FWD |
| Marcus Rashford | 31% | 3.2 | MUN | MID |
| Kieffer Moore | 30% | 3.3 | BOU | FWD |
| Bruno Fernandes | 29% | 3.4 | MUN | MID |
| Ayoze Perez | 29% | 3.4 | LEI | MID |
| Harvey Barnes | 29% | 3.4 | LEI | MID |
| Sekou Mara | 29% | 3.5 | SOU | FWD |
| Ryan Christie | 29% | 3.5 | BOU | MID |
| Jamal Lowe | 29% | 3.5 | BOU | MID |
| Hakim Ziyech | 29% | 3.5 | CHE | MID |
| Conor Gallagher | 29% | 3.5 | CHE | MID |
| Antony | 29% | 3.5 | MUN | MID |
| Harvey Elliott | 28% | 3.6 | LIV | MID |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 28% | 3.6 | EVE | FWD |
| Philip Billing | 28% | 3.6 | BOU | MID |
| Mason Mount | 28% | 3.6 | CHE | MID |
| Joe Willock | 26% | 3.8 | NEW | MID |
| Jonjo Shelvey | 26% | 3.8 | NEW | MID |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 26% | 3.8 | TOT | MID |
| Diego Costa | 25% | 4 | WOL | FWD |
| Goncalo Guedes | 25% | 4 | WOL | MID |
| Michail Antonio | 25% | 4 | WHU | FWD |
| Joelinton | 25% | 4 | NEW | MID |
| Anthony Gordon | 25% | 4 | EVE | MID |
| Neal Maupay | 25% | 4 | EVE | FWD |
| Christian Eriksen | 25% | 4 | MUN | MID |
| Jadon Sancho | 25% | 4 | MUN | MID |
| Gianluca Scamacca | 24% | 4.2 | WHU | FWD |
| Elliot Anderson | 24% | 4.2 | NEW | MID |
| Ryan Fraser | 24% | 4.2 | NEW | MID |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 24% | 4.2 | NEW | MID |
| Adam Lallana | 23% | 4.4 | BHA | MID |
| Pascal Gross | 23% | 4.4 | BHA | MID |
| Michael Olise | 23% | 4.4 | CRY | MID |
| Emmanuel Dennis | 21% | 4.8 | NFO | FWD |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | 21% | 4.8 | NFO | FWD |
| Jarrod Bowen | 21% | 4.8 | WHU | MID |
| Eberechi Eze | 20% | 5 | CRY | MID |
| Hwang Hee-Chan | 20% | 5 | WOL | MID |
| Ivan Perisic | 20% | 5 | TOT | DEF |
| Pablo Fornals | 17% | 6 | WHU | MID |
Liverpool & Mohammad Salah (56%) showed signs of a resurgence last week and re-enter the fray when thinking about FPL options. He is top for big chances per 90 among all players in the league so far this season.
This week he takes on a West Ham side that have been brilliant defensively of late, surpassing Arsenal to now sit 2nd in the expected goals conceded table. A fired-up Liverpool at Anfield is an entirely different prospect, however and the bookies favour Salah to keep his streak going.
For the first time this season, Salah takes the armband.
He’s joined by Liverpool teammate Darwin Nunez (51%) as he continues to try to find his best form in a Liverpool jersey. The Uruguayan striker has the best shots and shots in the box per 90 stats amongst forwards and is 2nd for big chances per 90, showing he is getting in good positions and that the goals are on their way.
Callum Wilson (48%) is next on the list. This week he comes up against an Everton side just starting to slip defensively of late, as they slide past Bournemouth to 19th for expected goals conceded as yet this season.
Wilson, by contrast, has looked good recently, as have Newcastle’s attack scoring nine goals in their last three games.
Aleksandr Mitrovic (45%) punished more than a few sellers when he returned to Fulham’s lineup in Gameweek 11, scoring from the spot and an open game vs Bournemouth. The Serbian now sits 5th for minutes per goal among all forwards, hitting the net every 107 minutes.
He will fancy his chances of improving this stat during the week vs Aston Villa, who look in dire straits under Gerrard. The Villains are now winless in eight, conceding 11 goals in that time and showing little sign of improvement.
Leandro Trossard (32%) has let many a manager down, with back-to-back blanks to follow up his hattrick at Anfield. However, the Belgian winger seems to have been given a new role under De Zerbi, playing closer to goal and with bottom-of-the-league Nottingham Forest coming to the Amex this week, the bookies are expecting Trossard to find his shooting boots again.
Wilfried Zaha (33%) has been equally disappointing these last two weeks; however his odds remain high as they welcome managerless Wolves to Selhurst Park. Wolves tend to concede a lot of chances down their flanks, and with the pace and attacking impetus of this Palace side, we’re backing Zaha to rediscover his early season form this midweek.
Another slightly left-field pick this week is Raheem Sterling (33%), who returned to the Chelsea team this week vs Aston Villa. Chelsea seem to be finding their groove as Potter works his magic, and Sterling has the second most big chances per 90 so far this season.
Andreas Pereira (10) grabbed another assist last week, making it 4 attacking returns this season. He continues on our bench again this week.
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Clean sheet odds gameweek 12
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Brighton | 51% | 1.95 |
| Newcastle | 43% | 2.35 |
| Liverpool | 41% | 2.43 |
| Chelsea | 38% | 2.6 |
| Crystal Palace | 38% | 2.6 |
| Southampton | 30% | 3.3 |
| Bournemouth | 30% | 3.35 |
| Aston Villa | 29% | 3.45 |
| Leicester | 28% | 3.6 |
| Wolves | 28% | 3.6 |
| Fulham | 26% | 3.8 |
| Man Utd | 26% | 3.8 |
| Tottenham | 23% | 4.3 |
| Leeds | 21% | 4.7 |
| Brentford | 18% | 5.6 |
| Everton | 17% | 5.75 |
| Nottingham Forest | 13% | 7.5 |
| West Ham | 11% | 9 |
This midweek, Brighton (51%) tops the polls for clean sheet odds. The Seagulls have had an up-and-down start under new boss Roberto De Zerbi after an impressive display at Anfield they’ve lost twice, albeit challenging games against Spurs and Brentford.
Their hefty odds may have more to do with the opposition this week, Nottingham Forest have managed just one goal on the road all season, and that was all the way back in Gameweek 3.
Brighton have good defensive numbers in home games so far this season, keeping a clean sheet in two of the four games played at the Amex though questions linger around the defence since the departure of Potter.
Adam Webster seems a good pick, he’s joint 4th for headed attempts of all defenders, and with Forest sitting 16th for chances conceded from set-pieces, a 15-point haul isn’t out of the question.
He’s joined by goalkeeper Robert Sanchez, without a clean sheet in five games but will fancy his chances this gameweek.
Newcastle (43%) secured a crucial, if controversial, clean sheet at Old Trafford in Gameweek 11. With key players like Bruno Guimaraes returning, offering more protection from midfield, it appears the Magpies’ luck is turning defensively.
This Wednesday, they welcome Everton, who are firmly mid to lower table for total shots (14th), shots in the box (15th), shots on target (15th), as well as expected goals(14th). Meanwhile, Newcastle sit 5th for expected goals conceded and have an excellent defensive record at home, extending back to the start of the year.
Kieran Trippier is 1st for chances created (22) and big chances created (3) of all defenders this season and continues to be great value at £5.7m.
Liverpool (41%) are next most likely to keep a clean sheet this weekend. After a massive win and clean sheet against Manchester City, they’ll be confident of keeping the momentum going against a West Ham side that have struggled for goals early on this season. In fact David Moyes’ side sit 18th for big chances of all teams in the Premier League this season.
Trent Alexander-Arnold returned to action sooner than expected and now provides an exciting differential shout with explosive potential. As a result, he takes our final starting spot in our defence.
Backing them up will be Castagne, as Leicester (29%) host Leeds this week, and he’s joined by Neco Williams (£4.1m) who appears to have regained his place.
Danny Ward (£4.1m) is our keeper on the bench.
Captain and team of the week gameweek 12
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.