91 points in Gameweek 12 means we have now achieved 90+ points in three of the last four gameweeks. Haaland (c), Salah, Saliba and Adingra were the biggest scorers for us last time out.
The Bookies don’t see many clean sheets this weekend, with only one team above a 40% chance of keeping one. Therefore, we play a 3-4-3 for the first time this season.
The Xi is mostly dominated by the usual suspects but there is still space for a few differential punts, including two players less than 5% owned.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
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Goalscorer odds gameweek 13
| Player | Probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 65% | 1.54 | MCI | FWD |
| Son Heung-Min | 46% | 2.16 | TOT | MID |
| Ollie Watkins | 40% | 2.5 | AVL | FWD |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | 40% | 2.5 | NFO | FWD |
| Dominic Solanke | 39% | 2.55 | BOU | FWD |
| Julian Alvarez | 39% | 2.55 | MCI | FWD |
| Gabriel Jesus | 38% | 2.6 | ARS | FWD |
| Odsonne Edouard | 38% | 2.63 | CRY | FWD |
| Eddie Nketiah | 38% | 2.65 | ARS | FWD |
| Cameron Archer | 38% | 2.65 | SHU | FWD |
| Evan Ferguson | 36% | 2.75 | BHA | FWD |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 36% | 2.75 | CRY | FWD |
| Mohamed Salah | 36% | 2.8 | LIV | MID |
| Jarrod Bowen | 36% | 2.8 | WHU | MID |
| Eberechi Eze | 35% | 2.85 | CRY | MID |
| Carlos Vinicius | 34% | 2.9 | FUL | FWD |
| Phil Foden | 34% | 2.9 | MCI | MID |
| Marcus Rashford | 34% | 2.9 | MUN | MID |
| Ansu Fati | 34% | 2.95 | BHA | MID |
| Danny Ings | 34% | 2.95 | WHU | FWD |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 33% | 3 | EVE | FWD |
| Bukayo Saka | 33% | 3.05 | ARS | MID |
| Kaoru Mitoma | 32% | 3.1 | BHA | MID |
| Kieffer Moore | 32% | 3.1 | BOU | FWD |
| Nicolas Jackson | 32% | 3.1 | CHE | FWD |
| Darwin Nunez | 32% | 3.1 | LIV | FWD |
| Raheem Sterling | 31% | 3.2 | CHE | MID |
| Rasmus Højlund | 31% | 3.2 | MUN | FWD |
| Arnaout Danjuma | 30% | 3.3 | EVE | MID |
| Sasa Kalajdzic | 30% | 3.3 | WOL | FWD |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 30% | 3.35 | BRE | MID |
| Carlton Morris | 30% | 3.35 | LUT | FWD |
| Moussa Diaby | 29% | 3.45 | AVL | MID |
| João Pedro | 29% | 3.45 | BHA | FWD |
| Bruno Fernandes | 29% | 3.45 | MUN | MID |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 28% | 3.55 | ARS | MID |
| Justin Kluivert | 28% | 3.55 | BOU | MID |
| Raúl Jiménez | 27% | 3.7 | FUL | FWD |
| Leandro Trossard | 27% | 3.75 | ARS | MID |
| Jay Rodriguez | 27% | 3.75 | BUR | FWD |
| Brennan Johnson | 27% | 3.75 | TOT | FWD |
| Benson | 26% | 3.8 | BUR | MID |
| William Osula | 26% | 3.8 | SHU | FWD |
| Miguel Almiron | 26% | 3.85 | NEW | MID |
| Kai Havertz | 25% | 3.95 | ARS | MID |
| Said Benrahma | 25% | 3.95 | WHU | MID |
| Leon Bailey | 25% | 4 | AVL | MID |
| Zeki Amdouni | 25% | 4 | BUR | FWD |
| Diego Jota | 25% | 4 | LIV | MID |
| Palmer Cole | 24% | 4.1 | CHE | MID |
| Armando Broja | 24% | 4.2 | CHE | FWD |
| Hee-Chan Hwang | 24% | 4.25 | WOL | MID |
| Yoane Wissa | 23% | 4.35 | BRE | FWD |
| Bernardo Silva | 23% | 4.4 | MCI | MID |
| Anthony Gordon | 23% | 4.4 | NEW | MID |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | 23% | 4.4 | NFO | FWD |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 22% | 4.5 | TOT | MID |
| Luis Díaz | 22% | 4.6 | LIV | MID |
| Jeremy Doku | 22% | 4.6 | MCI | MID |
| Martin Odegaard | 21% | 4.8 | ARS | MID |
| Philip Billing | 21% | 4.8 | BOU | MID |
| Joe Willock | 21% | 4.8 | NEW | MID |
| Elijah Adebayo | 20% | 4.9 | LUT | FWD |
| Antony | 20% | 4.9 | MUN | MID |
| Jack Grealish | 20% | 5 | MCI | MID |
| Bobby Reid | 20% | 5.1 | FUL | MID |
| Harry Wilson | 19% | 5.2 | FUL | MID |
| Pascal Gross | 19% | 5.3 | BHA | MID |
| Neal Maupay | 19% | 5.4 | BRE | FWD |
| Anthony Martial | 17% | 5.75 | MUN | FWD |
| Jordan Ayew | 17% | 5.8 | CRY | MID |
| Cauley Woodrow | 17% | 5.8 | LUT | FWD |
| Mason Mount | 17% | 5.8 | MUN | MID |
| Cody Gakpo | 16% | 6.25 | LIV | FWD |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 16% | 6.25 | NEW | MID |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | 16% | 6.4 | BRE | MID |
| Andreas Pereira | 15% | 6.75 | FUL | MID |
| Christian Eriksen | 15% | 6.75 | MUN | MID |
| Conor Gallagher | 14% | 7 | CHE | MID |
| Mykhaylo Mudryk | 14% | 7 | CHE | MID |
| Rodri | 14% | 7 | MCI | MID |
| Enzo | 13% | 7.5 | CHE | MID |
| Reece James | 11% | 9 | CHE | DEF |
| Virgil van Dijk | 6% | 18 | LIV | DEF |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 5% | 19 | LIV | DEF |
Erling Haaland (54%) and Mohammed Salah (31%) will go head to head this Saturday as first plays second both in Premier League terms and Fantasy Premier League terms. Salah is top for points so far this season with 101 points, while Haaland is close behind with 96.
Goals are usually abundant in these games in recent years with the majority going to the home team, in the last four meetings between Man City and Liverpool at the Etihad Guardiola’s side have scored 11 goals with Klopp’s men scoring four in response.
Liverpool’s defensive form away from home has been underwhelming, keeping no clean sheets and sitting 8th for xG conceded. City on the other hand have had a strong attack at home, scoring 16 goals (4th) though it is worth noting they have out performed their xG by 8.70, the biggest over-performance in the league.
With goals almost guaranteed, it makes sense to choose both sides biggest threat, the bookies always fancy Haaland to score. He takes the armband for us this week.
Phil Foden (34%) joins his City team mate, and boasts a decent record against Jurgen Klopp’s men with three goals and two assists in five games played in the league against the Reds. At just 9.8% TSB, he could be a very shrewd differential pick this gameweek.
Heung-min Son (41%) and Ollie Watkins (34%) also meet, in what promises to be another goal-fest as both teams favour a high line in defence and both have pacey forwards to punish just that.
Aston Villa sit 10th for goals conceded (17) and rank even worse when looking at just away games (14th), while Spurs have conceded six goals at home so far this season, it’s worth noting that their xGC of 9.18 makes them the second highest over-performers of xGC in the league just behind Liverpool. Add to this the fact Romero and Van De Ven are still missing and Villa will fancy their chances of scoring come Sunday.
Both sides attacking prowess, combined with less than stellar defences, again, means picking the two talismans is an easy decision. Watkins and Son have 14 goals and nine assists between them this season and are likely to add to that in Gameweek 13.
With Taiwo Awoniyi (40%) a doubt, we have favoured Dominic Solanke (34%) who scored a brace against Newcastle in Gameweek 12 and is the most transferred in forward ahead of his trip to Sheffield United. The Blades defensive vulnerabilities are well documented, even at home, conceding 16 goals (19th), 14.43 xGC (20th) and 24 big chances (20th).
Jarrod Bowen (36%) is also expected to miss out, so we’ve opted for Eberechi Eze (35%) who was a popular pick in preseason and has returned to action in his last two games with a goal and an assist in 120 minutes of football. This weekend he travels to Luton Town who are yet to keep a home clean sheet this season.
On the bench for us in attack this week is Naouirou Ahamada (£4.3m) who allows us to squeeze every bit of our budget into the starting XI.
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Clean sheet odds gameweek 13
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Arsenal | 42% | 2.4 |
| Crystal Palace | 39% | 2.55 |
| Fulham | 34% | 2.95 |
| Bournemouth | 33% | 3 |
| West Ham | 33% | 3 |
| Brighton | 29% | 3.4 |
| Man City | 29% | 3.4 |
| Man Utd | 29% | 3.4 |
| Wolves | 29% | 3.4 |
| Newcastle | 29% | 3.5 |
| Chelsea | 28% | 3.55 |
| Everton | 27% | 3.65 |
| Luton | 26% | 3.8 |
| Sheffield Utd | 24% | 4.25 |
| Tottenham | 23% | 4.35 |
| Nottingham Forest | 23% | 4.4 |
| Burnley | 22% | 4.6 |
| Brentford | 20% | 4.9 |
| Aston Villa | 20% | 5.1 |
| Liverpool | 15% | 6.75 |
Arsenal (42%) lead the way for goals conceded (10), expected goals conceded (9.37) as well as being joint first for clean sheets this season with five.
This week will be a tough test for them however, Brentford sit 10th for goals scored, but 6th for xG and scoring 12 goals in their six home games this season.
Arsenal tend to fare better defensively when playing away from home, keeping three clean sheets in five, though they have kept none in their last two.
William Saliba (£5.4m) and Gabriel Magalhaes (£4.8m) seem like the two safest picks. Their aerial threat as well as ability to collect bonus points makes them an attractive double up this week.
Crystal Palace (39%) are another side joint first for clean sheets, though owners will have been disappointed to see their assets concede three goals at home to Everton in Gameweek 12.
This weekend,they take on Luton Town who are yet to score more than one goal at home all year, though they have only been kept scoreless on one occasion. Still, four goals, three from open play and an xG of 4.46 sees them in the bottom five for all three metrics.
Marc Guehi (£4.6m) makes a decent cheaper alternative to the more popular Joachim Andersen (£5.1m) and with not much between the pair in terms of underlying statistics, we believe the £0.5m saving is warranted.
Fulham (34%) may surprise a few with their inclusion on this list but they have managed to keep the third most clean sheets this season, with three, and have fared pretty well defensively in home games this season.
This weekend they host a Wolves side who sit 11th for away goals scored as well as 9th for xG away from home.
Bernd Leno (£4.7m) sits third in the goalkeeper standings with 48 points, just eight points back from Allison. The German’s shot stopping abilities are second to none 11 save points and eight bonus points show that his ability to haul in almost any game.
On the bench for us in defence this weekend is Jamal Lacselles (£4.1m) who looks the best option of the low priced defenders, as well as Jarrad Branthwaite (£4.0m). They are joined by Thomas Strakosha (£3.9m) who makes for decent bench fodder.
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here