Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 13

The gameweeks are coming thick and fast as we head into the final straight before the World Cup. As we jockey for position, each transfer becomes crucial in chasing those ever-elusive hauls.
Read on to find out who the bookies fancy to provide the points this gameweek.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscorer odds gameweek 13

PlayerGoal probabilityOddsTeamPosition
Erling Haaland68%1.47MCIFWD
Mohamed Salah53%1.87LIVMID
Julian Alvarez51%1.95MCIFWD
Darwin Nunez50%2LIVFWD
Harry Kane46%2.17TOTFWD
Roberto Firmino46%2.18LIVFWD
Gabriel Jesus46%2.18ARSFWD
Gianluca Scamacca42%2.38WHUFWD
Aleksandar Mitrovic42%2.4FULFWD
Eddie Nketiah38%2.6ARSFWD
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang37%2.7CHEFWD
Patrick Bamford36%2.75LEEFWD
Phil Foden36%2.8MCIMID
Michail Antonio36%2.8WHUFWD
Fabio Carvalho35%2.85LIVMID
Ivan Toney35%2.85BREFWD
Ollie Watkins35%2.88AVLFWD
Danny Ings35%2.88AVLFWD
Son Heung-Min35%2.88TOTMID
Riyad Mahrez34%2.95MCIMID
Kevin De Bruyne34%2.95MCIMID
Diego Costa34%2.95WOLFWD
Cristiano Ronaldo33%3.05MUNFWD
Armando Broja33%3.05CHEFWD
Bukayo Saka33%3.05ARSMID
Jarrod Bowen33%3.05WHUMID
Dominic Calvert-Lewin32%3.1EVEFWD
Gabriel Martinelli32%3.1ARSMID
Raheem Sterling31%3.2CHEMID
Callum Wilson31%3.2NEWFWD
Neal Maupay31%3.25EVEFWD
Jamie Vardy30%3.3LEIFWD
Kai Havertz30%3.35CHEFWD
Maxwel Cornet30%3.35WHUMID
Christian Pulisic29%3.5CHEMID
Patson Daka29%3.5LEIFWD
Hwang Hee-Chan29%3.5WOLMID
Lucas Paqueta29%3.5WHUMID
Wilfried Zaha28%3.55CRYMID
Goncalo Guedes28%3.6WOLMID
Luis Sinisterra28%3.6LEEMID
Odsonne Edouard27%3.65CRYFWD
Said Benrahma27%3.7WHUMID
Anthony Gordon27%3.75EVEMID
Kelechi Iheanacho27%3.75LEIFWD
Ilkay Gundogan26%3.85MCIMID
Jean-Philippe Mateta26%3.9CRYFWD
Harvey Elliott25%3.95LIVMID
Mason Mount25%3.95CHEMID
Martin Odegaard25%3.95ARSMID
Jack Harrison25%3.95LEEMID
Philippe Coutinho25%4AVLMID
Daniel Podence24%4.1WOLMID
Fabio Vieira24%4.1ARSMID
Dominic Solanke24%4.1BOUFWD
Bernardo Silva24%4.2MCIMID
Anthony Martial24%4.2MUNFWD
Marcus Rashford24%4.2MUNMID
Leon Bailey24%4.2AVLMID
Hakim Ziyech23%4.3CHEMID
Jack Grealish23%4.4MCIMID
Brenden Aaronson23%4.4LEEMID
Pablo Fornals23%4.4WHUMID
James Maddison22%4.5LEIMID
Emiliano Buendia22%4.5AVLMID
Che Adams22%4.5SOUFWD
Sekou Mara22%4.5SOUFWD
Yoane Wissa22%4.6BREMID
Dejan Kulusevski22%4.6TOTMID
Conor Gallagher20%4.9CHEMID
Harvey Barnes20%4.9LEIMID
Bruno Fernandes20%5MUNMID
Keane Lewis-Potter20%5BREMID
Daniel James20%5FULMID
Kieffer Moore20%5.1BOUFWD
Allan Saint-Maximin19%5.3NEWMID
Adam Armstrong18%5.5SOUFWD
Taiwo Awoniyi18%5.6NFOFWD
Bobby Reid18%5.6FULMID
Tomas Soucek18%5.6WHUMID
Brennan Johnson17%6NFOFWD
Danny Welbeck16%6.1BHAFWD
Emmanuel Dennis16%6.25NFOFWD
Ivan Perisic16%6.25TOTDEF
Philip Billing16%6.25BOUMID
Leandro Trossard15%6.75BHAMID
Andreas Pereira15%6.75FULMID
Bruno Guimaraes15%6.75NEWMID
Virgil van Dijk14%7LIVDEF
Eberechi Eze14%7CRYMID
Ryan Christie14%7BOUMID
Jesse Lingard13%7.5NFOMID
Trent Alexander-Arnold13%7.5LIVDEF
Alexis Mac Allister13%7.5BHAMID
Christian Eriksen13%7.5MUNMID
Ryan Fraser13%7.5NEWMID
Joao Cancelo13%8MCIDEF
Ryan Sessegnon13%8TOTDEF
Matt Doherty11%9TOTDEF
Andrew Robertson11%9.5LIVDEF
Joe Willock11%9.5NEWMID
Konstantinos Tsimikas10%10.5LIVDEF
Pascal Gross10%10.5BHAMID
Goalscorer odds gameweek 13

After his first blank of the season in Gameweek 11, it will come as a surprise to absolutely no one that Erling Haaland (68%) is still head and shoulders above the rest in terms of goal-scoring odds this week.
They say a wounded animal is a dangerous one, and Haaland and his teammates will be fired up after a week of reflection on their defeat at the hands of Liverpool.
Their opponents this week, Brighton, on the other hand, seem to be struggling to live under new manager Roberto De Zerbi as they are now winless in four. In addition, their defensive numbers have fallen off a cliff. In the last four gameweeks, they are 16th for big chances conceded (9).
Man City have scored four or more goals in all five home games this season, a staggering statistic that makes Haaland the obvious captaincy shout.

Salah (53%) is second in the charts for goalscorer odds this week. The Liverpool talisman blanked in Gameweek 12 but was not without his chances against a determined West Ham defence.
He should have an easier task this week as he travels to Nottingham Forest for what promises to be a one-sided affair. Forest have conceded the second most goals at home so far this season (9), and while Liverpool haven’t exactly been prolific away from home, it appears likely that can change this weekend.
He is joined in the side by teammate Darwin Nunez, who scored his second goal of the season in midweek. The Uruguayan’s underlying stats are something to behold. Per 90, he is first in the league for shots (6.95), touches in the box (10.74), and non-penalty expected goals (0.86).

Gianluca Scamacca (42%) has made a decent start to his Premier League career, with two goals in five starts for the Hammers. In the last four gameweeks, he’s joint second amongst forwards for shots in the box (13) and big chance involvements (4). This week he takes on Bournemouth, who looks shaky at the back.

The last in our attacking lineup are two Brazilians with an eye for goal.
Rodrigo (36%) was on fire earlier this season but has waned since his shoulder injury. This week he plays a Fulham team that have conceded 11 goals in their last four games and 15 big chances in their last four away games.
He is joined by Gabriel Martinelli (32%), who has arguably been the value pick of the season, sitting fifth for points amongst all midfielders. He travels to St.Mary’s this weekend to play a Southampton side who just picked up their first clean sheet in 16 games stretching back to the end of last season. While their underlying defensive data always looks good, they are 16th for goals conceded this year (18).

Andreas Pereira (15%) and Jacob Murphy (£4.3m) make up the subs bench this week.

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Clean sheet odds gameweek 13:

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City54%1.85
West Ham45%2.2
Aston Villa33%3.05
Crystal Palace29%3.45
Man Utd19%5.2
Nottingham Forest8%12
Clean sheet odds gameweek 13

Manchester City (54%) are expected to get straight back to business this weekend after the defeat to Liverpool in Gameweek 11. Pep Guardiola’s side remains the best defence in the league by almost all metrics.
Brighton, conversely, look to have lost all attacking impetus without a goal in three games since they put three past Liverpool at Anfield. Though they had plenty of shots and chances against Brentford and Forest, they lacked the cutting edge to finish, and we may be seeing a return to the Brighton of old.
Joao Cancelo seems the most obvious pick. The versatile fullback already has two goals in the league this year. He’s joined by teammate Manuel Akanji, who at just £5.0m is a cheap route into the City defence and offers some goal threat as well.

After just one clean sheet in their opening eight games, Liverpool (53%) now have back-to-back clean sheets in their last two, keeping out Man City and West Ham, although somewhat, fortunately.
This week they play the league’s second-lowest scorers in Nottingham Forest, with just 7 goals scored in 11 games. Liverpool’s defensive data has been relatively poor, but backing for a clean sheet against Forest always seems like a good idea.
Alexander-Arnold returned to fitness during the week. His points potential is just so high every week, especially this week. Even at £7.2m, he represents good value.

According to the bookies, Arsenal (39%) are the third most likely to come away with a clean sheet this weekend. The Gunners sit second to Man City in nearly all defensive metrics this season.
Meanwhile, their opponents this week, Southampton are mid to lower table in terms of goals (15th), shots in the box (12th) and shots on target (14th). Though Arteta’s side were fortunate to get a clean sheet away to Leeds in their last game, it seems reasonable to assume they will take that as a wake-up call.
Gabriel seems a good choice here. Arsenal are second for goals from set-pieces this season (5), while Southampton have conceded the second most (5).

West Ham (45%) have improved defensively in recent weeks though this has not been reflected on the pitch. This week, they host a Bournemouth side who sit bottom of the table by some distance for expected goals so far this season.
Lukas Fabianski (£5.0) seems a safe pair of hands between the posts for us. The veteran goalkeeper has excellent shot-stopping abilities and penalty saves in his locker, saving at least one penalty every season for the last six seasons and three last year.

On the bench for us this week in defence are Iversen (£3.9) and Hugo Bueno (£3.9m) of Wolves (32%), who seems to have locked down a starting place and got an excellent assist last time out.

Captain and team of the week gameweek 12

Bookie's Advantage team of the week Gameweek 13

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.

You can follow him on Twitter here