Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 14

As we come into the Christmas period, nailed 90 minute men are the order of the day, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t space for a few fun picks.

Gameweek 14 sees the Bookies XI full of very high potential players in attack, while clean sheets are back on the menu after last weekend seeing only two.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

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Player	Probability	Odds	Team	Position
Erling Haaland	71%	1.41	MCI	FWD
Mohamed Salah	61%	1.65	LIV	MID
Darwin Nunez	55%	1.81	LIV	FWD
Bryan Mbeumo	51%	1.97	BRE	MID
Eddie Nketiah	47%	2.14	ARS	FWD
Gabriel Jesus	45%	2.2	ARS	FWD
Ollie Watkins	45%	2.2	AVL	FWD
Luis Díaz	44%	2.25	LIV	MID
Julian Alvarez	44%	2.28	MCI	FWD
Bukayo Saka	43%	2.3	ARS	MID
Yoane Wissa	43%	2.3	BRE	FWD
Nicolas Jackson	43%	2.35	CHE	FWD
Raheem Sterling	41%	2.45	CHE	MID
Phil Foden	40%	2.5	MCI	MID
Gabriel Martinelli	37%	2.7	ARS	MID
Neal Maupay	37%	2.7	BRE	FWD
Palmer Cole	37%	2.7	CHE	MID
Dominic Solanke	36%	2.75	BOU	FWD
Kaoru Mitoma	36%	2.8	BHA	MID
Jay Rodriguez	36%	2.8	BUR	FWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	36%	2.8	EVE	FWD
Jarrod Bowen	35%	2.88	WHU	MID
Kai Havertz	34%	2.9	ARS	MID
Benson	34%	2.9	BUR	MID
Armando Broja	34%	2.95	CHE	FWD
Cameron Archer	34%	2.95	SHU	FWD
Danny Ings	33%	3.05	WHU	FWD
Leandro Trossard	31%	3.2	ARS	MID
Moussa Diaby	31%	3.2	AVL	MID
Eberechi Eze	31%	3.2	CRY	MID
Miguel Almiron	31%	3.2	NEW	MID
Arnaout Danjuma	31%	3.25	EVE	MID
Evan Ferguson	30%	3.3	BHA	FWD
Keane Lewis-Potter	30%	3.3	BRE	MID
Marcus Rashford	30%	3.3	MUN	MID
Rasmus Højlund	30%	3.3	MUN	FWD
Odsonne Edouard	30%	3.35	CRY	FWD
Jeremy Doku	30%	3.35	MCI	MID
Anthony Gordon	30%	3.35	NEW	MID
Leon Bailey	28%	3.55	AVL	MID
Joe Willock	28%	3.55	NEW	MID
Morgan Gibbs-White	28%	3.6	NFO	FWD
Carlton Morris	27%	3.65	LUT	FWD
Martin Odegaard	26%	3.7	ARS	MID
Bruno Fernandes	26%	3.8	MUN	MID
Bernardo Silva	26%	3.85	MCI	MID
João Pedro	25%	4	BHA	FWD
William Osula	25%	4	SHU	FWD
Anthony Martial	24%	4.1	MUN	FWD
Said Benrahma	24%	4.1	WHU	MID
Carlos Vinicius	24%	4.2	FUL	FWD
Jack Grealish	23%	4.3	MCI	MID
Conor Gallagher	20%	4.9	CHE	MID
Mykhaylo Mudryk	20%	5.1	CHE	MID
Bruno Guimaraes	20%	5.1	NEW	MID
Antony	17%	5.8	MUN	MID
Sasa Kalajdzic	17%	5.8	WOL	FWD
Rodri	16%	6.1	MCI	MID

Erling Haaland (71%) has scored 50 goals in his first 48 games of Premier League football, smashing the previously held record of 65. There isn’t really a whole lot more we can say about the City striker.

This weekend he welcomes Spurs, who will still be without Romero and Van De Ven and have looked shaky defensively since becoming decimated by injuries and suspensions. With Postecoglou’s “we’ll have a go mate” approach, Spurs could get torn apart this weekend.

While there are other tempting options this weekend, Erling Haaland remains the best captaincy choice this gameweek.

Mohammed Salah (61%) remains the top scoring player in all of FPL after he chipped in with an assist away at City last weekend. A much more inviting fixture awaits this Sunday as the Reds welcome a lacklustre Fulham to Anfield.

The Cottagers are 16th for goals conceded on the road (13), as well as 19th for xGC, and have conceded 22 big chances in their seven away games this season.

With Salah in the form he’s in, the bookies heavily fancy him to add to his tally again in Gameweek 14.

So confident in Liverpool’s attack, even Darwin Nunez (55%) is fancied to score. The Uruguayan has flattered to deceive thus far but the rate at which he accumulates chances make him a very tempting choice indeed.

Bryan Mbeumo (51%) is hot property at the moment, despite no goals in his last three games, the Cameroonian winger-turned-striker is the most transferred player ahead of Gameweek 14.

And it’s not hard to see why. The Brentford talisman sits third for xGI among all outfield players so far this season (behind Haaland and Salah) and this week he takes on Luton Town at home. The Hatters may have managed a few results recently but are 20th for big chances conceded (25) and xGC (13.92) in the last six games weeks.

Mbeumo is an easy pick for us this gameweek.

Ollie Watkins (45%) scored again last weekend to make it 15 returns in 13 games this season and push Aston Villa up into the top four.

Bournemouth’s results have improved of late but they are still not what you would call “defensively robust”. In their last six games they have still conceded 13 big chances, 13 goals and an xGC of 8.89.

Watkins is looking like a season keeper at the moment and this week is no exception, he completes our front three this gameweek.

With uncertainty still looming over Luis Diaz’ (44%) minutes, we’ve opted for Bukayo Saka (43%) who has been a little underwhelming in recent weeks. In the last four gameweeks he has taken a total of 4 shots, totaling 0.15 xG though he has still managed 21 points in that time. Wolves have just one clean sheet on the road this season and concede the majority of their chances down Saka’s side. He’s definitely worth keeping faith with this week.

On the bench for us this weekend are Justin Kluivert (£4.6m) fresh off a 10 point haul in his last game, as well as Naouirou Ahamada (£4.3m)

Team	Clean Sheet Probability	Odds
Arsenal	56%	1.8
Liverpool	50%	2
Brentford	46%	2.17
Man City	44%	2.28
Burnley	41%	2.43
West Ham	39%	2.55
Chelsea	34%	2.95
Newcastle	34%	2.95
Everton	32%	3.15
Nottingham Forest	29%	3.45
Aston Villa	29%	3.5
Crystal Palace	24%	4.1
Sheffield Utd	22%	4.6
Man Utd	20%	5.1
Bournemouth	18%	5.6
Luton	16%	6.4
Brighton	15%	6.5
Wolves	11%	9.5
Fulham	8%	12.5
Tottenham	8%	12.5

Arsenal (56%) added another clean sheet to their record away at Brentford last week and, besides a clanger from Ramsdale early on, looked relatively comfortable.

The Gunners now sit top of the league for clean sheets (6), goals conceded (10) and xGC (10.56).

They face a tough test this week as they welcome Wolves, who have only failed to score once this season, away at Manchester United in Gameweek 1, though it is worth noting their goals and expected goals tally are mid to bottom half of the table.

William Saliba (£5.5m) & Gabriel Magalahaes (£4.9m) came up with the goods for us in Gameweek 13 with a double clean sheet and we’re counting on them to do the same again this weekend.

Liverpool (50%) have the best home defensive record in the league with four clean sheets and just two goals conceded at Anfield so far this season.

This weekend they welcome Fulham who have struggled in an attacking sense this season, especially on the road as they sit 18th for goals from open play (4) and big chances (8), whilst also languishing in 17th for xG (6.76).

Kostas Tsimiskas (£4.7m) punished sellers big time in Gameweek 12 with two assists for a massive 15 point haul. His potential for points at both ends of the pitch make him a very attractive pick this week.

Surprisingly, Brentford (46%) only have one clean sheet at home so far this season and perform quite badly on underlying defensive metrics also but their form has taken an upturn of late so perhaps we shouldn’t judge them too harshly.

Their odds of a clean sheet this week are all about their opposition, Luton Town, who despite encouraging performances at home of late, look a different side on the road. Just two goals from open play, as well as an open play xG of 3.80 show their lack of cutting edge up front.

Ethan Pinnock (£4.6m) is always a threat at set-piece time and Luton have conceded the most set-piece xG in away games this season so he should get chances this weekend.

Manchester City (44%) round off our backline as they continue to disappoint defensively, keeping just two clean sheets in their six home games.

Conceding nine goals from an xG of 6.70 is the fourth biggest under-performance of xGC in the league this season and suggests they have been somewhat unlucky, but this habit of leakiness does extend back to the end of last season.

The opponents this weekend, Spurs, are in a rut of their own, three losses on the bounce and an xG of 2.94 has them 13th in the league by that metric and represents a fear with some many players missing.

Ederson (£5.5m) seems a boring enough pick but is the surest way into this Man City backline and with Spurs attacking attitude he should get the chance to make plenty of saves in Gameweek 14.

On the bench for us this week in defence is Thomas Strakosh (£3.9m) and Charlie Taylor (£4.0m) with a nice home fixture against Sheffield United this week.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here