Back to basics is the Bookies’ call this week. As we swiftly approach the World Cup break, keeping it simple with quality Top Six players makes a lot of sense.
But still, even with that, some intriguing differentials can be had.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Don’t miss the roundup of the most helpful tweets ahead of gameweek 14 here
Goalscorer odds gameweek 14
| Player | Goal probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 67% | 1.49 | MCI | FWD |
| Gabriel Jesus | 55% | 1.82 | ARS | FWD |
| Mohamed Salah | 54% | 1.86 | LIV | MID |
| Julian Alvarez | 51% | 1.98 | MCI | FWD |
| Darwin Nunez | 50% | 2 | LIV | FWD |
| Harry Kane | 48% | 2.07 | TOT | FWD |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | 48% | 2.08 | FUL | FWD |
| Eddie Nketiah | 47% | 2.12 | ARS | FWD |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 47% | 2.14 | MUN | FWD |
| Roberto Firmino | 46% | 2.18 | LIV | FWD |
| Callum Wilson | 43% | 2.33 | NEW | FWD |
| Ivan Toney | 42% | 2.38 | BRE | FWD |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 42% | 2.38 | ARS | MID |
| Bukayo Saka | 42% | 2.38 | ARS | MID |
| Son Heung-Min | 36% | 2.75 | TOT | MID |
| Wilfried Zaha | 36% | 2.8 | CRY | MID |
| Phil Foden | 35% | 2.85 | MCI | MID |
| Fabio Carvalho | 35% | 2.85 | LIV | MID |
| Odsonne Edouard | 35% | 2.88 | CRY | FWD |
| Anthony Martial | 34% | 2.9 | MUN | FWD |
| Marcus Rashford | 34% | 2.9 | MUN | MID |
| Richarlison | 34% | 2.95 | TOT | FWD |
| Riyad Mahrez | 33% | 3 | MCI | MID |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 32% | 3.1 | CRY | FWD |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 32% | 3.1 | EVE | FWD |
| Carlos Vinicius | 32% | 3.1 | FUL | FWD |
| Martin Odegaard | 32% | 3.1 | ARS | MID |
| Bruno Fernandes | 32% | 3.15 | MUN | MID |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 31% | 3.2 | MCI | MID |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 31% | 3.25 | CHE | FWD |
| Antony | 30% | 3.3 | MUN | MID |
| Armando Broja | 27% | 3.65 | CHE | FWD |
| Danny Welbeck | 27% | 3.7 | BHA | FWD |
| Diego Costa | 27% | 3.7 | WOL | FWD |
| Yoane Wissa | 27% | 3.75 | BRE | MID |
| Anthony Gordon | 27% | 3.75 | EVE | MID |
| Raheem Sterling | 26% | 3.9 | CHE | MID |
| Ilkay Gundogan | 25% | 3.95 | MCI | MID |
| Dominic Solanke | 25% | 3.95 | TOT | MID |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 25% | 3.95 | BRE | FWD |
| Miguel Almiron | 25% | 4 | NEW | MID |
| Kai Havertz | 25% | 4 | CHE | FWD |
| Jadon Sancho | 25% | 4 | MUN | MID |
| Leandro Trossard | 24% | 4.1 | BHA | MID |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | 24% | 4.1 | BRE | MID |
| Patrick Bamford | 24% | 4.1 | LEE | FWD |
| Danny Ings | 24% | 4.2 | AVL | FWD |
| Che Adams | 24% | 4.2 | SOU | FWD |
| Christian Pulisic | 24% | 4.25 | CHE | MID |
| Gianluca Scamacca | 24% | 4.25 | WHU | FWD |
| Jamie Vardy | 23% | 4.35 | LEI | FWD |
| Lucas Moura | 23% | 4.35 | TOT | MID |
| Ollie Watkins | 23% | 4.35 | AVL | FWD |
| Jack Grealish | 22% | 4.5 | MCI | MID |
| Goncalo Guedes | 22% | 4.5 | WOL | MID |
| Patson Daka | 22% | 4.6 | LEI | FWD |
| Bernardo Silva | 21% | 4.7 | MCI | MID |
| Mason Mount | 21% | 4.8 | CHE | MID |
| Harry Wilson | 21% | 4.8 | FUL | MID |
| Michail Antonio | 21% | 4.8 | WHU | FWD |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 20% | 4.9 | NEW | MID |
| Kelechi Iheanacho | 20% | 5 | LEI | FWD |
| Granit Xhaka | 20% | 5.1 | ARS | MID |
| Adam Armstrong | 19% | 5.4 | SOU | FWD |
| Joelinton | 18% | 5.6 | NEW | MID |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | 18% | 5.6 | NFO | FWD |
| Christian Eriksen | 17% | 5.75 | MUN | MID |
| Ivan Perisic | 17% | 5.8 | TOT | DEF |
| Philippe Coutinho | 17% | 5.8 | AVL | MID |
| Andreas Pereira | 17% | 5.8 | FUL | MID |
| James Maddison | 17% | 6 | LEI | MID |
| Harvey Barnes | 15% | 6.5 | LEI | MID |
| Emiliano Buendia | 15% | 6.5 | AVL | MID |
| Joe Willock | 15% | 6.75 | NEW | MID |
| Virgil van Dijk | 15% | 6.75 | LIV | DEF |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 15% | 6.75 | LIV | DEF |
| Jonjo Shelvey | 13% | 7.5 | NEW | MID |
| Joao Cancelo | 13% | 8 | MCI | DEF |
Erling Haaland (67%) returned to his usual goal-scoring ways against Brighton last week. The Beast from Bryne has scored 17 goals in 11 games, just six fewer than golden boot winners Son & Salah last season (23).
This week he travels to Leicester, who will provide little resistance. The Foxes have conceded the second-highest number of goals in the Premier League this season (24).
The only slight concern is question marks over his fitness after comments made by Guardiola on Tuesday night, but information has since emerged that the striker is likely okay. Even if he is declared unfit, we have an excellent vice-captain and a strong bench.
For the 14th week running, Haaland is our captain.
Gabriel Jesus (55%) is without a goal in three games in the league, but it’s not for want of trying. The dynamic forward has missed three big chances in those last three.
This week he welcomes Nottingham Forest to the Emirates, who put in an impressive display against Liverpool last week, keeping them scoreless. However, Arsenal have scored 14 goals in five home matches, while Forest have conceded 14 in six.
After a frustrating draw away at Southampton last weekend, the Gunners will be looking to get back to winning ways in Gameweek 14.
Mohammad Salah (54%) continues to frustrate owners (and even more so captainers) as he is now returning at a rate of one goal every four games and has just two double-digit hauls for the season.
However, the Bookies continue to back last season’s golden boot winner, and he comes up against a struggling Leeds United side, winless in nine. Marsch’s men have conceded nine goals in their last three away matches, while Mo Salah has 5 goals in his two home games vs Leeds in his career. He looks like a good hold this week.
He’s joined by striker partner Darwin Nunez (50%). The pair scored in a comfortable win against Ajax in the week and seem an excellent double-up in attack this week against a vulnerable Leeds defence.
Wilfried Zaha (36%) is another who has frustrated owners of late. The Ivorian winger seems just as likely to get a red card as he is to get a brace, still, it’s worth noting he is returning at a rate of once every two games. He plays Southampton at home in Gameweek 14 who have conceded 11 goals in six away games so far this season.
Marcus Rashford (34%) takes the final place in our lineup. The Man United midfielder is playing out of position as a striker and has been getting plenty of chances with little success. The Bookies are backing him to break his duck here, though, against a West Ham side who have just one clean sheet away from home all season.
Once again, our bench comprises Andreas Pereira (17%), who managed two assists for 10 points last weekend & Jacob Murphy (£4.3m), who is a good budget enabler.
Clean Sheet odds gameweek 14:
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Arsenal | 57% | 1.76 |
| Aston Villa | 20% | 5.1 |
| Bournemouth | 18% | 5.6 |
| Brentford | 34% | 2.9 |
| Brighton | 28% | 3.6 |
| Chelsea | 31% | 3.25 |
| Crystal Palace | 40% | 2.5 |
| Everton | 24% | 4.2 |
| Fulham | 30% | 3.35 |
| Leeds | 8% | 12.5 |
| Leicester | 8% | 12 |
| Liverpool | 38% | 2.6 |
| Man City | 46% | 2.16 |
| Man Utd | 39% | 2.55 |
| Newcastle | 38% | 2.63 |
| Nottingham Forest | 8% | 13 |
| Southampton | 23% | 4.4 |
| Tottenham | 43% | 2.35 |
| West Ham | 17% | 5.8 |
| Wolves | 24% | 4.1 |
We are already looking forward to the World Cup – check out our World Cup 2022 Fantasy article
Arsenal (57%) top the poll this week for clean sheet odds. The North London side remain joint second with Man City and Chelsea for goals conceded so far this season (11). They welcome a Forest side who managed just one goal away from home all season, which came back in Gameweek 3 against Everton.
Gabriel seems a good choice here. Forest are 17th for shots conceded from set-pieces so far in the league, and the big Brazilian centre-back is always a threat from corners and free kicks.
He’s joined by Aaron Ramsdale in goal. Ramsdale has not been the same asset as last season, as Arsenal are conceding fewer shots, but he’s still a safe pair of hands for this week.
Man City (46%) are next up. Guardiola’s men are still the defensive powerhouse of the league, conceding just two shots on target every 90 minutes away from home.
Their opponents this week, Leicester, have been somewhat of a bogey team for them since Pep took over. However, the Bookies do not trust narratives and superstitions, and this is not the same Leicester team of yesteryear. The Foxes scored nine goals in six home games this season, and four came against Nottingham Forest.
Joao Cancelo always seems like a good pick from City. Another with some fitness concerns around him but more likely than not he’s fine. With two goals, two assists and five clean sheets, the Portuguese is the best defensive premium to own right now.
He’s joined yet again by Manuel Akanji, still at £5.0m. The new City centre back has quickly established himself in the team and is a threat from set-pieces, something Leicester are infamously bad at defending.
Lastly, it’s Spurs (43%).
Antonio Conte’s men have had a tough few weeks, with back-to-back defeats in the league against Top Four rivals and heartbreak late on in the Champions League as Harry Kane saw his last-minute winner chalked off by a controversial VAR decision.
However, they will be looking to get back to winning this week when they travel to Bournemouth, who have scored just four goals in their six home games this season and may be without talismanic striker Dominic Solanke.
Ryan Sessegnon didn’t play midweek, while Perisic played the full 90 minutes. With their Champions League group going down to the final game next Tuesday, it seems reasonable he will be rested for Sessegnon this week. Sessegnon is second amongst all defenders for expected goals per 90 this season.
On the bench for us, this week in defence is Danny Ward (£4.1m), who has found some form of late. He’s joined by Hugo Bueno (£3.9m) of Wolves (24%), who is the best budget enabler this week.
The World Cup is only a month away! Check out our best World Cup 2022 Fantasy tips
Captain and team of the week gameweek 14
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here