Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 15

The games are coming thick and fast and managers must react quickly to shifting dynamics, both real and fantasy.

Some Top vs Bottom clashes this week mean Arsenal and Liverpool dominate the Bookies XI and the debate over captaincy becomes a very interesting one indeed.

Goalscorer odds gameweek 15

Erling Haaland61%1.65MCIFWD
Mohamed Salah60%1.66LIVMID
Darwin Nunez60%1.68LIVFWD
Eddie Nketiah51%1.98ARSFWD
Son Heung-Min51%1.98TOTMID
Gabriel Jesus47%2.12ARSFWD
Luis Díaz44%2.25LIVMID
Bukayo Saka43%2.33ARSMID
Evan Ferguson41%2.45BHAFWD
Carlos Vinicius40%2.5FULFWD
Sasa Kalajdzic40%2.5WOLFWD
Eberechi Eze39%2.55CRYMID
Gabriel Martinelli38%2.63ARSMID
Bryan Mbeumo38%2.65BREMID
Kaoru Mitoma37%2.7BHAMID
Nicolas Jackson36%2.75CHEFWD
Odsonne Edouard36%2.75CRYFWD
Cody Gakpo36%2.75LIVFWD
Leandro Trossard36%2.8ARSMID
Julian Alvarez36%2.8MCIFWD
Ollie Watkins34%2.9AVLFWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta34%2.9CRYFWD
Rasmus Højlund34%2.9MUNFWD
Brennan Johnson34%2.9TOTFWD
Alexander Isak34%2.95NEWFWD
Martin Odegaard33%3ARSMID
João Pedro33%3BHAFWD
Raheem Sterling33%3CHEMID
Palmer Cole33%3CHEMID
Dominic Calvert-Lewin33%3.05EVEFWD
Raúl Jiménez33%3.05FULFWD
Phil Foden32%3.1MCIMID
Hee-Chan Hwang32%3.15WOLMID
Jarrod Bowen31%3.25WHUMID
Dominic Solanke30%3.35BOUFWD
Arnaout Danjuma30%3.35EVEMID
Harvey Barnes30%3.35NEWMID
Cameron Archer29%3.4SHUFWD
Danny Ings29%3.45WHUFWD
Dejan Kulusevski28%3.6TOTMID
Kai Havertz27%3.65ARSMID
Jeremy Doku27%3.75MCIMID
Yoane Wissa26%3.8BREFWD
Bruno Fernandes26%3.85MUNMID
Armando Broja25%3.95CHEFWD
Kieffer Moore24%4.1BOUFWD
Moussa Diaby24%4.25AVLMID
Jay Rodriguez24%4.25BURFWD
Zeki Amdouni24%4.25BURFWD
Anthony Martial23%4.3MUNFWD
Bobby Reid23%4.35FULMID
Harry Wilson23%4.35FULMID
Miguel Almiron22%4.6NEWMID
William Osula21%4.7SHUFWD
Justin Kluivert21%4.8BOUMID
Neal Maupay21%4.8BREFWD
Carlton Morris21%4.8LUTFWD
Bernardo Silva21%4.8MCIMID
Said Benrahma21%4.8WHUMID
Leon Bailey20%4.9AVLMID
Anthony Gordon20%4.9NEWMID
Keane Lewis-Potter20%5BREMID
Jack Grealish20%5MCIMID
Morgan Gibbs-White20%5NFOFWD
Joe Willock19%5.3NEWMID
Andreas Pereira18%5.5FULMID
Alex Mac Allister18%5.5LIVMID
Michael Olise18%5.6CRYMID
Jordan Ayew17%6CRYMID
Elijah Adebayo15%6.75LUTFWD
Trent Alexander-Arnold13%7.5LIVDEF
Bruno Guimaraes13%7.5NEWMID

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Erling Haaland (61%) just pips Mohammed Salah (60%) as the most likely goal scorer this week despite the FPL community largely favouring the Egyptian. Salah remains ahead by the smallest of margins in terms of points (111 vs 110) while the big Norwegian does have more goals (14 vs 10) and more goal contributions overall (19 vs 16).

Their respective fixtures would seem to favour Salah as well. Sheffield United have conceded double the number of goals Aston Villa have (39 vs 20), more big chances (49 vs 38) and conceded more xG (31.27 vs 20.43)

And still the City striker comes out on top. He is well ahead of Salah in terms of shots in the box (54 vs 31), big chances (26 vs 16) and shots on target (27 vs 17).

In reality there is no splitting the two this week but by the bookies odds, just barely, Haaland takes the armband.

Some may laugh at the fact that Darwin Nunez (60%) has the same odds of scoring as Salah this gameweek, but he can’t keep missing them (right? RIGHT?). The Uruguayan has missed six big chances in his last four Premier League games and the bookies believe this can only mean one thing, with many desperate owners praying they are right.

Heung-min Son (51%) punished the many sellers of the last few weeks with a mixed bag FPL wise against Man City in Gameweek 14, a goal, assist and own goal earned him a cool 10 points.

This week he takes on West Ham, who haven’t kept an away clean sheet all season and have conceded 14 goals in seven games.

Son meanwhile has 11 returns (9 goals, 2 assists) in 14 games as Spurs look back to their free flowing selves.

Gabriel Jesus (47%) has looked electric since his return to the side but has as yet nothing to show for it, despite stellar performances in the Champions League.

Another serial squanderer of sitters, Jesus has missed two big chances in his last two games. With Luton Town this week, potentially without two starting centre backs, he should have plenty more opportunities and the bookies are putting their faith in Jesus and praying for a miracle.

Speaking of miracles, Bryan Mbeumo (38%) failed to record a shot on target against Luton Town in Gameweek 14 after being the most transferred in player.

While the likes of Luis DIaz (44%) and Bukayo Saka (43%) have better odds this week, we are already tripled up on Liverpool and Arsenal so Mbeumo away to Brighton will have to do.

The good news is Brighton are one of three teams yet to record a clean sheet so far this season conceding 26 goals in the process and will still be without the suspended Lewis Dunk.

Only Salah has a higher xG among midfielders than Mbeumo. He makes a good safe pick this week.

On the bench for us this gameweek, is Alejandro Garnacho (£4.8m) who provides excellent bench cover, as well as Justin Kluivert (£4.6m) who has a 21% chance of a goal this week.

Clean sheet odds gameweek 15

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Crystal Palace36%2.75
Man City32%3.1
Nottingham Forest25%4
Man Utd24%4.25
West Ham15%6.5
Aston Villa15%6.75
Sheffield Utd8%13
Clean sheet odds gameweek 15

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Arsenal (57%) failed to add to their six clean sheets at home to Wolves in Gameweek 14 despite looking very comfortable throughout. The Gunners conceded just 0.71 xG on the day so owners of Arsenal defenders can consider themselves a touch unlucky.

Arteta’s men have for a long time been better defensively on the road than at home, keeping ten away vs four at home last season and four away vs two at home this.

Luton have scored in five of their six home games this season, but are 18th for xG, hence the reason why the bookies fancy Arsenal so much.

Gabriel Magalhaes’ (£4.9m) aerial threat and Oleksander Zinchenko’s (£5.1m) bonus point accumulation make them very attractive picks this gameweek.

Liverpool (48%) also disappointed managers this week, as they conceded three at home to Fulham. Still, their underlying numbers remain good and their opposition this midweek remains terrible.

Sheffield United’s morale will be on the floor after their 5-0 drubbing at fellow relegation strugglers Burnley and, albeit a man down in the second half, only created 0.15 xG in the first half whilst at full strength (or as full strength as Sheffield United can be).

Kostas Tsimikas (£4.8m) was awarded a fortunate assist for pushing a Fulham defender but the Greek’s attacking potential can hardly be denied. Even with questions over his minutes this week, we think he’s worth rolling the dice on.

Wolves (40%) take on a Burnley side no doubt buoyed by their big win this weekend.

Wolves have kept just one clean sheet so far this season, however, while Burnley have been kept scoreless on five occasions. So again it seems the bookies have little confidence in the Burnley attack, rather than having more confidence in the Wolves defence.

Nelson Semedo (£4.5m) is another marauding fullback worth rolling the dice on this gameweek after a fortuitous assist last gameweek.

Fulham (40%) are another side most likely benefitting from the poor attacking quality of their opponent this gameweek as Nottingham Forest look to be struggling a bit as they created just 0.72 xG at home to Everton in Gameweek 14.

Nottingham Forest’s struggles on the road were well documented last season and this trend seems to be recurring, with Forest 15th for xG (5.78) away from home this season.

Fulham are 10th for xGC (9.35) in home games which doesn’t inspire great confidence but goes some way to explain the bookies’ thinking.

Bernd Leno (£4.7m) is always a decent shout between the sticks. The German is second amongst goalkeepers for both save points and bonus points so far this season.

On the bench for us in defence are Martin Dubravka, another £3.9m keeper, as well as teammate, Jamal Lacselles (£4.2m) both of whom have a decent fixture away at Everton this gameweek.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here