The games are coming thick and fast and managers must react quickly to shifting dynamics, both real and fantasy.
Some Top vs Bottom clashes this week mean Arsenal and Liverpool dominate the Bookies XI and the debate over captaincy becomes a very interesting one indeed.
Goalscorer odds gameweek 15
| Player | Probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 61% | 1.65 | MCI | FWD |
| Mohamed Salah | 60% | 1.66 | LIV | MID |
| Darwin Nunez | 60% | 1.68 | LIV | FWD |
| Eddie Nketiah | 51% | 1.98 | ARS | FWD |
| Son Heung-Min | 51% | 1.98 | TOT | MID |
| Gabriel Jesus | 47% | 2.12 | ARS | FWD |
| Luis Díaz | 44% | 2.25 | LIV | MID |
| Bukayo Saka | 43% | 2.33 | ARS | MID |
| Evan Ferguson | 41% | 2.45 | BHA | FWD |
| Carlos Vinicius | 40% | 2.5 | FUL | FWD |
| Sasa Kalajdzic | 40% | 2.5 | WOL | FWD |
| Eberechi Eze | 39% | 2.55 | CRY | MID |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 38% | 2.63 | ARS | MID |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 38% | 2.65 | BRE | MID |
| Kaoru Mitoma | 37% | 2.7 | BHA | MID |
| Nicolas Jackson | 36% | 2.75 | CHE | FWD |
| Odsonne Edouard | 36% | 2.75 | CRY | FWD |
| Cody Gakpo | 36% | 2.75 | LIV | FWD |
| Leandro Trossard | 36% | 2.8 | ARS | MID |
| Julian Alvarez | 36% | 2.8 | MCI | FWD |
| Ollie Watkins | 34% | 2.9 | AVL | FWD |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 34% | 2.9 | CRY | FWD |
| Rasmus Højlund | 34% | 2.9 | MUN | FWD |
| Brennan Johnson | 34% | 2.9 | TOT | FWD |
| Alexander Isak | 34% | 2.95 | NEW | FWD |
| Martin Odegaard | 33% | 3 | ARS | MID |
| João Pedro | 33% | 3 | BHA | FWD |
| Raheem Sterling | 33% | 3 | CHE | MID |
| Palmer Cole | 33% | 3 | CHE | MID |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 33% | 3.05 | EVE | FWD |
| Raúl Jiménez | 33% | 3.05 | FUL | FWD |
| Phil Foden | 32% | 3.1 | MCI | MID |
| Hee-Chan Hwang | 32% | 3.15 | WOL | MID |
| Jarrod Bowen | 31% | 3.25 | WHU | MID |
| Dominic Solanke | 30% | 3.35 | BOU | FWD |
| Arnaout Danjuma | 30% | 3.35 | EVE | MID |
| Harvey Barnes | 30% | 3.35 | NEW | MID |
| Cameron Archer | 29% | 3.4 | SHU | FWD |
| Danny Ings | 29% | 3.45 | WHU | FWD |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 28% | 3.6 | TOT | MID |
| Kai Havertz | 27% | 3.65 | ARS | MID |
| Jeremy Doku | 27% | 3.75 | MCI | MID |
| Yoane Wissa | 26% | 3.8 | BRE | FWD |
| Bruno Fernandes | 26% | 3.85 | MUN | MID |
| Armando Broja | 25% | 3.95 | CHE | FWD |
| Kieffer Moore | 24% | 4.1 | BOU | FWD |
| Moussa Diaby | 24% | 4.25 | AVL | MID |
| Jay Rodriguez | 24% | 4.25 | BUR | FWD |
| Zeki Amdouni | 24% | 4.25 | BUR | FWD |
| Benson | 23% | 4.3 | BUR | MID |
| Anthony Martial | 23% | 4.3 | MUN | FWD |
| Bobby Reid | 23% | 4.35 | FUL | MID |
| Harry Wilson | 23% | 4.35 | FUL | MID |
| Miguel Almiron | 22% | 4.6 | NEW | MID |
| Antony | 21% | 4.7 | MUN | MID |
| William Osula | 21% | 4.7 | SHU | FWD |
| Justin Kluivert | 21% | 4.8 | BOU | MID |
| Neal Maupay | 21% | 4.8 | BRE | FWD |
| Carlton Morris | 21% | 4.8 | LUT | FWD |
| Bernardo Silva | 21% | 4.8 | MCI | MID |
| Said Benrahma | 21% | 4.8 | WHU | MID |
| Leon Bailey | 20% | 4.9 | AVL | MID |
| Anthony Gordon | 20% | 4.9 | NEW | MID |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | 20% | 5 | BRE | MID |
| Jack Grealish | 20% | 5 | MCI | MID |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | 20% | 5 | NFO | FWD |
| Joe Willock | 19% | 5.3 | NEW | MID |
| Andreas Pereira | 18% | 5.5 | FUL | MID |
| Alex Mac Allister | 18% | 5.5 | LIV | MID |
| Michael Olise | 18% | 5.6 | CRY | MID |
| Jordan Ayew | 17% | 6 | CRY | MID |
| Elijah Adebayo | 15% | 6.75 | LUT | FWD |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 13% | 7.5 | LIV | DEF |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 13% | 7.5 | NEW | MID |
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Erling Haaland (61%) just pips Mohammed Salah (60%) as the most likely goal scorer this week despite the FPL community largely favouring the Egyptian. Salah remains ahead by the smallest of margins in terms of points (111 vs 110) while the big Norwegian does have more goals (14 vs 10) and more goal contributions overall (19 vs 16).
Their respective fixtures would seem to favour Salah as well. Sheffield United have conceded double the number of goals Aston Villa have (39 vs 20), more big chances (49 vs 38) and conceded more xG (31.27 vs 20.43)
And still the City striker comes out on top. He is well ahead of Salah in terms of shots in the box (54 vs 31), big chances (26 vs 16) and shots on target (27 vs 17).
In reality there is no splitting the two this week but by the bookies odds, just barely, Haaland takes the armband.
Some may laugh at the fact that Darwin Nunez (60%) has the same odds of scoring as Salah this gameweek, but he can’t keep missing them (right? RIGHT?). The Uruguayan has missed six big chances in his last four Premier League games and the bookies believe this can only mean one thing, with many desperate owners praying they are right.
Heung-min Son (51%) punished the many sellers of the last few weeks with a mixed bag FPL wise against Man City in Gameweek 14, a goal, assist and own goal earned him a cool 10 points.
This week he takes on West Ham, who haven’t kept an away clean sheet all season and have conceded 14 goals in seven games.
Son meanwhile has 11 returns (9 goals, 2 assists) in 14 games as Spurs look back to their free flowing selves.
Gabriel Jesus (47%) has looked electric since his return to the side but has as yet nothing to show for it, despite stellar performances in the Champions League.
Another serial squanderer of sitters, Jesus has missed two big chances in his last two games. With Luton Town this week, potentially without two starting centre backs, he should have plenty more opportunities and the bookies are putting their faith in Jesus and praying for a miracle.
Speaking of miracles, Bryan Mbeumo (38%) failed to record a shot on target against Luton Town in Gameweek 14 after being the most transferred in player.
While the likes of Luis DIaz (44%) and Bukayo Saka (43%) have better odds this week, we are already tripled up on Liverpool and Arsenal so Mbeumo away to Brighton will have to do.
The good news is Brighton are one of three teams yet to record a clean sheet so far this season conceding 26 goals in the process and will still be without the suspended Lewis Dunk.
Only Salah has a higher xG among midfielders than Mbeumo. He makes a good safe pick this week.
On the bench for us this gameweek, is Alejandro Garnacho (£4.8m) who provides excellent bench cover, as well as Justin Kluivert (£4.6m) who has a 21% chance of a goal this week.
Clean sheet odds gameweek 15
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Arsenal | 57% | 1.76 |
| Liverpool | 48% | 2.08 |
| Wolves | 41% | 2.45 |
| Fulham | 40% | 2.5 |
| Crystal Palace | 36% | 2.75 |
| Brighton | 33% | 3.05 |
| Newcastle | 33% | 3.05 |
| Man City | 32% | 3.1 |
| Tottenham | 31% | 3.25 |
| Chelsea | 28% | 3.55 |
| Bournemouth | 27% | 3.65 |
| Everton | 26% | 3.9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 25% | 4 |
| Man Utd | 24% | 4.25 |
| Burnley | 23% | 4.4 |
| Brentford | 19% | 5.2 |
| West Ham | 15% | 6.5 |
| Aston Villa | 15% | 6.75 |
| Luton | 9% | 11.5 |
| Sheffield Utd | 8% | 13 |
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Arsenal (57%) failed to add to their six clean sheets at home to Wolves in Gameweek 14 despite looking very comfortable throughout. The Gunners conceded just 0.71 xG on the day so owners of Arsenal defenders can consider themselves a touch unlucky.
Arteta’s men have for a long time been better defensively on the road than at home, keeping ten away vs four at home last season and four away vs two at home this.
Luton have scored in five of their six home games this season, but are 18th for xG, hence the reason why the bookies fancy Arsenal so much.
Gabriel Magalhaes’ (£4.9m) aerial threat and Oleksander Zinchenko’s (£5.1m) bonus point accumulation make them very attractive picks this gameweek.
Liverpool (48%) also disappointed managers this week, as they conceded three at home to Fulham. Still, their underlying numbers remain good and their opposition this midweek remains terrible.
Sheffield United’s morale will be on the floor after their 5-0 drubbing at fellow relegation strugglers Burnley and, albeit a man down in the second half, only created 0.15 xG in the first half whilst at full strength (or as full strength as Sheffield United can be).
Kostas Tsimikas (£4.8m) was awarded a fortunate assist for pushing a Fulham defender but the Greek’s attacking potential can hardly be denied. Even with questions over his minutes this week, we think he’s worth rolling the dice on.
Wolves (40%) take on a Burnley side no doubt buoyed by their big win this weekend.
Wolves have kept just one clean sheet so far this season, however, while Burnley have been kept scoreless on five occasions. So again it seems the bookies have little confidence in the Burnley attack, rather than having more confidence in the Wolves defence.
Nelson Semedo (£4.5m) is another marauding fullback worth rolling the dice on this gameweek after a fortuitous assist last gameweek.
Fulham (40%) are another side most likely benefitting from the poor attacking quality of their opponent this gameweek as Nottingham Forest look to be struggling a bit as they created just 0.72 xG at home to Everton in Gameweek 14.
Nottingham Forest’s struggles on the road were well documented last season and this trend seems to be recurring, with Forest 15th for xG (5.78) away from home this season.
Fulham are 10th for xGC (9.35) in home games which doesn’t inspire great confidence but goes some way to explain the bookies’ thinking.
Bernd Leno (£4.7m) is always a decent shout between the sticks. The German is second amongst goalkeepers for both save points and bonus points so far this season.
On the bench for us in defence are Martin Dubravka, another £3.9m keeper, as well as teammate, Jamal Lacselles (£4.2m) both of whom have a decent fixture away at Everton this gameweek.
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here