Gameweek 15 was a mixed bag for the Bookies XI with our highly owned assets blanking and our differentials like Nelson Semedo (0.6%) and Brend Leno (14.5%) giving defensive returns, while Gabriel Jesus (3.5%) returned double digits.
Another quick turn around means adapting quickly as injuries and benchings pile up. This gameweek the Bookies Advantage XI contains some tried and trusted FPL stalwarts, as well as a few cheeky differentials to make things a bit more interesting.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Goalscorer odds gameweek 16
| Player | Probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 72% | 1.38 | MCI | FWD |
| Mohamed Salah | 52% | 1.93 | LIV | MID |
| Darwin Nunez | 50% | 2 | LIV | FWD |
| Julian Alvarez | 47% | 2.12 | MCI | FWD |
| Evan Ferguson | 47% | 2.14 | BHA | FWD |
| Marcus Rashford | 46% | 2.16 | MUN | MID |
| Son Heung-Min | 46% | 2.18 | TOT | MID |
| Phil Foden | 43% | 2.33 | MCI | MID |
| Kaoru Mitoma | 40% | 2.48 | BHA | MID |
| Bruno Fernandes | 40% | 2.48 | MUN | MID |
| João Pedro | 40% | 2.5 | BHA | FWD |
| Rasmus Højlund | 39% | 2.55 | MUN | FWD |
| Carlos Vinicius | 38% | 2.65 | FUL | FWD |
| Alexander Isak | 38% | 2.65 | NEW | FWD |
| Luis Díaz | 37% | 2.7 | LIV | MID |
| Sasa Kalajdzic | 37% | 2.7 | WOL | FWD |
| Eddie Nketiah | 36% | 2.75 | ARS | FWD |
| Gabriel Jesus | 36% | 2.8 | ARS | FWD |
| Neal Maupay | 36% | 2.8 | BRE | FWD |
| Richarlison | 35% | 2.85 | TOT | FWD |
| Hee-Chan Hwang | 35% | 2.85 | WOL | MID |
| Yoane Wissa | 35% | 2.88 | BRE | FWD |
| Nicolas Jackson | 34% | 2.9 | CHE | FWD |
| Raheem Sterling | 34% | 2.9 | CHE | MID |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 34% | 2.9 | EVE | FWD |
| Cody Gakpo | 34% | 2.9 | LIV | FWD |
| Cameron Archer | 34% | 2.95 | SHU | FWD |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | 33% | 3 | BRE | MID |
| Ollie Watkins | 33% | 3.05 | AVL | FWD |
| Anthony Martial | 33% | 3.05 | MUN | FWD |
| Dominic Solanke | 31% | 3.2 | BOU | FWD |
| Raúl Jiménez | 31% | 3.25 | FUL | FWD |
| Bukayo Saka | 30% | 3.3 | ARS | MID |
| Arnaout Danjuma | 30% | 3.3 | EVE | MID |
| Eberechi Eze | 29% | 3.4 | CRY | MID |
| Jeremy Doku | 29% | 3.4 | MCI | MID |
| Palmer Cole | 29% | 3.45 | CHE | MID |
| Antony | 29% | 3.45 | MUN | MID |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 28% | 3.6 | ARS | MID |
| Odsonne Edouard | 27% | 3.7 | CRY | FWD |
| William Osula | 27% | 3.7 | SHU | FWD |
| Kieffer Moore | 27% | 3.75 | BOU | FWD |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 26% | 3.8 | CRY | FWD |
| Bernardo Silva | 26% | 3.8 | MCI | MID |
| Armando Broja | 26% | 3.85 | CHE | FWD |
| Brennan Johnson | 26% | 3.85 | TOT | FWD |
| Danny Ings | 26% | 3.85 | WHU | FWD |
| Mason Mount | 26% | 3.9 | MUN | MID |
| Jack Grealish | 25% | 3.95 | MCI | MID |
| Jarrod Bowen | 24% | 4.1 | WHU | MID |
| Jay Rodriguez | 24% | 4.25 | BUR | FWD |
| Miguel Almiron | 24% | 4.25 | NEW | MID |
| Leandro Trossard | 23% | 4.3 | ARS | MID |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 23% | 4.35 | TOT | MID |
| Moussa Diaby | 23% | 4.4 | AVL | MID |
| Kai Havertz | 22% | 4.5 | ARS | MID |
| Martin Odegaard | 22% | 4.6 | ARS | MID |
| Justin Kluivert | 22% | 4.6 | BOU | MID |
| Zeki Amdouni | 22% | 4.6 | BUR | FWD |
| Bobby Reid | 22% | 4.6 | FUL | MID |
| Harry Wilson | 21% | 4.7 | FUL | MID |
| Anthony Gordon | 21% | 4.7 | NEW | MID |
| Carlton Morris | 21% | 4.8 | LUT | FWD |
| Michail Antonio | 21% | 4.8 | WHU | FWD |
| Leon Bailey | 20% | 5 | AVL | MID |
| Said Benrahma | 19% | 5.3 | WHU | MID |
| Rodri | 18% | 5.5 | MCI | MID |
| Andreas Pereira | 17% | 5.8 | FUL | MID |
| Rhian Brewster | 17% | 6 | SHU | FWD |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 15% | 6.5 | NEW | MID |
| Conor Gallagher | 15% | 6.75 | CHE | MID |
| Elijah Adebayo | 14% | 7 | LUT | FWD |
| Michael Olise | 13% | 7.5 | CRY | MID |
| Declan Rice | 12% | 8.5 | ARS | MID |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 11% | 9.5 | LIV | DEF |
| Virgil van Dijk | 11% | 9.5 | LIV | DEF |
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Erling Haaland (72%) hasn’t scored in his last two games but travels to Luton Town who, despite spirited performances of late, are bottom for big chances conceded (53), 18th for goals conceded (30) and 19th for xGC (32.53).
You don’t really need a breakdown of Haaland’s stat, he remains comfortably the most dangerous attacker in the league and the odds reflect that.
City will be fired up to get a result here and with Luton still having key men missing, the potential for a bloodbath is always there. He takes the armband for us this week.
Mohammed Salah (52%) disappointed owners with a blank in Gameweek 16 but with his opponents in Gameweek 16, Crystal Palace, in crisis, he could well profit.
One win in their last eight and one clean sheet in their last seven shows how out of form they are. In that time they have conceded 14 goals and with left-back Tyrick Mitchell now a doubt for the game, the Egyptian winger will be hoping to make it 200 goals in red this Saturday.
Darwin Nunez (50%) was benched on Wednesday but came on to make an assist. An often frustrating pick at times, his ability to get on the end of chances is what makes him so appealing. It’s another roll of the dice on Darwin for us this weekend.
Evan Ferguson (47%) was also rested in midweek, meaning he is likely to start at home to Burnley on Saturday.
The Irish striker has two goals in his last four starts and with Burnley’s defensive problems, the bookies are backing him to add to his tally.
The Clarets are 19th for goals conceded so far this season (33), conceding the majority of their chances through the middle. The Seagulls, meanwhile, have scored in their last 31 games in a run stretching back to February.
Kaoru Mitoma (40%) joins his Brighton team mate for an attacking double up. The Japanese winger managed his first return in four games against Brentford and will be confident he can add to that with Burnley also having a zonal weakness down their left.
Heung-min Son (46%) is a slight doubt for the game this weekend but if he does start the bookies are fancying him to get on the scoresheet. Spurs’ awful form of no wins in five will come up against Newcastle’s terrible away form which has seen them winless in their last four away, losing two, drawing two and conceding nine goals!
With a decent bench we feel confident taking a punt on the Spurs’ captain as his ability to haul in any game is well documented.
On the bench for us in attack this gameweek are Justin Kluivert (£4.6m) who offers excellent value as well as Naouirou Ahamada (£4.3m) who allows us to squeeze maximum funds into our starting XI.
Clean sheet odds gameweek 16
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Man City | 58% | 1.71 |
| Liverpool | 43% | 2.33 |
| Wolves | 42% | 2.38 |
| Brighton | 41% | 2.43 |
| Brentford | 40% | 2.5 |
| Man Utd | 38% | 2.65 |
| Arsenal | 33% | 3 |
| Fulham | 32% | 3.15 |
| Chelsea | 31% | 3.2 |
| West Ham | 27% | 3.65 |
| Tottenham | 25% | 3.95 |
| Everton | 24% | 4.25 |
| Aston Villa | 22% | 4.5 |
| Nottingham Forest | 22% | 4.6 |
| Sheffield Utd | 20% | 4.9 |
| Newcastle | 20% | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 14% | 7 |
| Burnley | 14% | 7 |
| Crystal Palace | 14% | 7 |
| Luton | 8% | 12 |
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Manchester City (60%) are without a win in four and without a clean sheet in five, however the Bookies are backing the old adage that form is temporary but class is permanent.
A trip to Luton Town may have seemed straightforward a week ago, before the Hatters put three past Arsenal.
Even with that win Luton remain goals from open play, open play xG and xG overall in home games while City are still third for xGC in away games.
We were bitten by a defensive double up vs Luton last week but we trust in the Bookies once more with Manuel Akanji (£4.9m), as well as Kyle Walker (£5.3m) who has played every minute for City in the league so far.
Liverpool (42%) managed to keep their second clean sheet in four games as they made light enough work of Sheffield United.
This gameweek they travel to a floundering Crystal Palace, with just one win and one clean sheet in their last seven games. In that time they have just seven goals (18th) and have created 12 big chances (18th).
In that time Liverpool have kept four clean sheets (1st) and conceded only five goals (joint 1st) and really look to be finding some defensive form.
Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.0m) has been on a rampage of late, since Gameweek 9 he has racked up 53 points, 3rd amongst all outfield players with two goals, two assists and four clean sheets.
Brighton (42%) are one of three teams who are yet to record a clean sheet in the league so far this season though the Bookies always fancy a team playing Sheffield United, especially at home.
Analysing the Blades from a statistical point of view has become somewhat irrelevant with the recent managerial change though it is worth pointing out they created just 0.67xG against Liverpool on Wednesday night.
Brighton have massively underperformed their xGC and will have Lewis Dunk available once again which should offer some hope.
And it’s Lewis Dunk (£5.0m) who we turn to as our choice of asset from the Brighton back line. With Sheffield United’s set piece woes continuing in midweek, he seems a decent shout.
Wolves (42%) recorded their second clean sheet of the season in midweek, beating Burnley by just the single goal, though never really looked in much trouble themselves, conceding just 0.83 xG on the night.
This weekend they welcome a Nottingham Forest side in dreadful form, off the back of a 5-0 defeat in which they had one shot on target and an xG of 0.29.
Daniel Bentley (£3.9m) is a gift at his price and with Jose Sa not even included in the squad on Tuesday night, it seems unlikely he will return by this weekend.
On the bench for us this weekend are Martin Dubravka (£4.0m) as well as Hugo Bueno (£4.4m) both of whom offer excellent value.
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here