Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 16 2023/2024

Gameweek 15 was a mixed bag for the Bookies XI with our highly owned assets blanking and our differentials like Nelson Semedo (0.6%) and Brend Leno (14.5%) giving defensive returns, while Gabriel Jesus (3.5%) returned double digits.

Another quick turn around means adapting quickly as injuries and benchings pile up. This gameweek the Bookies Advantage XI contains some tried and trusted FPL stalwarts, as well as a few cheeky differentials to make things a bit more interesting.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscorer odds gameweek 16

Erling Haaland72%1.38MCIFWD
Mohamed Salah52%1.93LIVMID
Darwin Nunez50%2LIVFWD
Julian Alvarez47%2.12MCIFWD
Evan Ferguson47%2.14BHAFWD
Marcus Rashford46%2.16MUNMID
Son Heung-Min46%2.18TOTMID
Phil Foden43%2.33MCIMID
Kaoru Mitoma40%2.48BHAMID
Bruno Fernandes40%2.48MUNMID
João Pedro40%2.5BHAFWD
Rasmus Højlund39%2.55MUNFWD
Carlos Vinicius38%2.65FULFWD
Alexander Isak38%2.65NEWFWD
Luis Díaz37%2.7LIVMID
Sasa Kalajdzic37%2.7WOLFWD
Eddie Nketiah36%2.75ARSFWD
Gabriel Jesus36%2.8ARSFWD
Neal Maupay36%2.8BREFWD
Hee-Chan Hwang35%2.85WOLMID
Yoane Wissa35%2.88BREFWD
Nicolas Jackson34%2.9CHEFWD
Raheem Sterling34%2.9CHEMID
Dominic Calvert-Lewin34%2.9EVEFWD
Cody Gakpo34%2.9LIVFWD
Cameron Archer34%2.95SHUFWD
Keane Lewis-Potter33%3BREMID
Ollie Watkins33%3.05AVLFWD
Anthony Martial33%3.05MUNFWD
Dominic Solanke31%3.2BOUFWD
Raúl Jiménez31%3.25FULFWD
Bukayo Saka30%3.3ARSMID
Arnaout Danjuma30%3.3EVEMID
Eberechi Eze29%3.4CRYMID
Jeremy Doku29%3.4MCIMID
Palmer Cole29%3.45CHEMID
Gabriel Martinelli28%3.6ARSMID
Odsonne Edouard27%3.7CRYFWD
William Osula27%3.7SHUFWD
Kieffer Moore27%3.75BOUFWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta26%3.8CRYFWD
Bernardo Silva26%3.8MCIMID
Armando Broja26%3.85CHEFWD
Brennan Johnson26%3.85TOTFWD
Danny Ings26%3.85WHUFWD
Mason Mount26%3.9MUNMID
Jack Grealish25%3.95MCIMID
Jarrod Bowen24%4.1WHUMID
Jay Rodriguez24%4.25BURFWD
Miguel Almiron24%4.25NEWMID
Leandro Trossard23%4.3ARSMID
Dejan Kulusevski23%4.35TOTMID
Moussa Diaby23%4.4AVLMID
Kai Havertz22%4.5ARSMID
Martin Odegaard22%4.6ARSMID
Justin Kluivert22%4.6BOUMID
Zeki Amdouni22%4.6BURFWD
Bobby Reid22%4.6FULMID
Harry Wilson21%4.7FULMID
Anthony Gordon21%4.7NEWMID
Carlton Morris21%4.8LUTFWD
Michail Antonio21%4.8WHUFWD
Leon Bailey20%5AVLMID
Said Benrahma19%5.3WHUMID
Andreas Pereira17%5.8FULMID
Rhian Brewster17%6SHUFWD
Bruno Guimaraes15%6.5NEWMID
Conor Gallagher15%6.75CHEMID
Elijah Adebayo14%7LUTFWD
Michael Olise13%7.5CRYMID
Declan Rice12%8.5ARSMID
Trent Alexander-Arnold11%9.5LIVDEF
Virgil van Dijk11%9.5LIVDEF
Goalscorer odds gameweek 16

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Erling Haaland (72%) hasn’t scored in his last two games but travels to Luton Town who, despite spirited performances of late, are bottom for big chances conceded (53), 18th for goals conceded (30) and 19th for xGC (32.53).

You don’t really need a breakdown of Haaland’s stat, he remains comfortably the most dangerous attacker in the league and the odds reflect that.

City will be fired up to get a result here and with Luton still having key men missing, the potential for a bloodbath is always there. He takes the armband for us this week.

Mohammed Salah (52%) disappointed owners with a blank in Gameweek 16 but with his opponents in Gameweek 16, Crystal Palace, in crisis, he could well profit.

One win in their last eight and one clean sheet in their last seven shows how out of form they are. In that time they have conceded 14 goals  and with left-back Tyrick Mitchell now a doubt for the game, the Egyptian winger will be hoping to make it 200 goals in red this Saturday.

Darwin Nunez (50%) was benched on Wednesday but came on to make an assist. An often frustrating pick at times, his ability to get on the end of chances is what makes him so appealing. It’s another roll of the dice on Darwin for us this weekend.

Evan Ferguson (47%) was also rested in midweek, meaning he is likely to start at home to Burnley on Saturday.

The Irish striker has two goals in his last four starts and with Burnley’s defensive problems, the bookies are backing him to add to his tally.

The Clarets are 19th for goals conceded so far this season (33), conceding the majority of their chances through the middle. The Seagulls, meanwhile, have scored in their last 31 games in a run stretching back to February.

Kaoru Mitoma (40%) joins his Brighton team mate for an attacking double up. The Japanese winger managed his first return in four games against Brentford and will be confident he can add to that with Burnley also having a zonal weakness down their left.

Heung-min Son (46%) is a slight doubt for the game this weekend but if he does start the bookies are fancying him to get on the scoresheet. Spurs’ awful form of no wins in five will come up against Newcastle’s terrible away form which has seen them winless in their last four away, losing two, drawing two and conceding nine goals!

With a decent bench we feel confident taking a punt on the Spurs’ captain as his ability to haul in any game is well documented.

On the bench for us in attack this gameweek are Justin Kluivert (£4.6m) who offers excellent value as well as Naouirou Ahamada (£4.3m) who allows us to squeeze maximum funds into our starting XI.

Clean sheet odds gameweek 16

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City58%1.71
Man Utd38%2.65
West Ham27%3.65
Aston Villa22%4.5
Nottingham Forest22%4.6
Sheffield Utd20%4.9
Crystal Palace14%7
Clean sheet odds gameweek 16

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Manchester City (60%) are without a win in four and without a clean sheet in five, however the Bookies are backing the old adage that form is temporary but class is permanent.

A trip to Luton Town may have seemed straightforward a week ago, before the Hatters put three past Arsenal.

Even with that win Luton remain goals from open play, open play xG and xG overall in home games while City are still third for xGC in away games.

We were bitten by a defensive double up vs Luton last week but we trust in the Bookies once more with Manuel Akanji (£4.9m), as well as Kyle Walker (£5.3m) who has played every minute for City in the league so far.

Liverpool (42%) managed to keep their second clean sheet in four games as they made light enough work of Sheffield United.

This gameweek they travel to a floundering Crystal Palace, with just one win and one clean sheet in their last seven games. In that time they have just seven goals (18th) and have created 12 big chances (18th).

In that time Liverpool have kept four clean sheets (1st) and conceded only five goals (joint 1st) and really look to be finding some defensive form.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.0m) has been on a rampage of late, since Gameweek 9 he has racked up 53 points, 3rd amongst all outfield players with two goals, two assists and four clean sheets.

Brighton (42%) are one of three teams who are yet to record a clean sheet in the league so far this season though the Bookies always fancy a team playing Sheffield United, especially at home.

Analysing the Blades from a statistical point of view has become somewhat irrelevant with the recent managerial change though it is worth pointing out they created just 0.67xG against Liverpool on Wednesday night.

Brighton have massively underperformed their xGC and will have Lewis Dunk available once again which should offer some hope.

And it’s Lewis Dunk (£5.0m) who we turn to as our choice of asset from the Brighton back line. With Sheffield United’s set piece woes continuing in midweek, he seems a decent shout.

Wolves (42%) recorded their second clean sheet of the season in midweek, beating Burnley by just the single goal, though never really looked in much trouble themselves, conceding just 0.83 xG on the night.

This weekend they welcome a Nottingham Forest side in dreadful form, off the back of a 5-0 defeat in which they had one shot on target and an xG of 0.29.

Daniel Bentley (£3.9m) is a gift at his price and with Jose Sa not even included in the squad on Tuesday night, it seems unlikely he will return by this weekend.

On the bench for us this weekend are Martin Dubravka (£4.0m) as well as Hugo Bueno (£4.4m) both of whom offer excellent value.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here