Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 16

“One-week punts” are the words on everyone in the community’s lips ahead of Gameweek 16. In the final week before the World Cup break and unlimited transfers, the Bookies’ Advantage team is full of high-potential differentials in every part of the pitch.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Player	Goal probability	Odds	Team	Position
Erling Haaland	73%	1.37	MCI	FWD
Mohamed Salah	56%	1.77	LIV	MID
Julian Alvarez	56%	1.78	MCI	FWD
Harry Kane	55%	1.83	TOT	FWD
Darwin Nunez	51%	1.95	LIV	FWD
Roberto Firmino	48%	2.1	LIV	FWD
Cristiano Ronaldo	47%	2.15	MUN	FWD
Gabriel Jesus	43%	2.3	ARS	FWD
Phil Foden	42%	2.38	MCI	MID
Kevin De Bruyne	42%	2.38	MCI	MID
Aleksandar Mitrovic	42%	2.4	FUL	FWD
Callum Wilson	41%	2.43	NEW	FWD
Riyad Mahrez	40%	2.5	MCI	MID
Richarlison	37%	2.7	TOT	FWD
Eddie Nketiah	36%	2.75	ARS	FWD
Fabio Carvalho	36%	2.75	LIV	MID
Anthony Martial	34%	2.9	MUN	FWD
Marcus Rashford	34%	2.9	MUN	MID
Danny Welbeck	34%	2.95	BHA	FWD
Leandro Trossard	34%	2.95	BHA	MID
Gianluca Scamacca	34%	2.95	WHU	FWD
Gabriel Martinelli	32%	3.1	ARS	MID
Bukayo Saka	32%	3.1	ARS	MID
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	32%	3.15	EVE	FWD
Wilfried Zaha	31%	3.2	CRY	MID
Odsonne Edouard	31%	3.2	CRY	FWD
Bernardo Silva	31%	3.2	MCI	MID
Dominic Solanke	30%	3.3	BOU	FWD
Antony	30%	3.3	MUN	MID
Neal Maupay	30%	3.35	EVE	FWD
Jack Grealish	30%	3.35	MCI	MID
Michail Antonio	30%	3.35	WHU	FWD
Jamie Vardy	29%	3.4	LEI	FWD
Ilkay Gundogan	29%	3.45	MCI	MID
Jarrod Bowen	29%	3.45	WHU	MID
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	29%	3.5	CHE	FWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta	28%	3.55	CRY	FWD
Carlos Vinicius	28%	3.6	FUL	FWD
Taiwo Awoniyi	28%	3.6	NFO	FWD
Patson Daka	27%	3.65	LEI	FWD
Kieffer Moore	26%	3.85	BOU	FWD
Anthony Gordon	26%	3.85	EVE	MID
Rodrigo	26%	3.85	LEE	MID
Armando Broja	25%	3.95	CHE	FWD
Patrick Bamford	25%	3.95	LEE	FWD
Kelechi Iheanacho	25%	3.95	LEI	FWD
Lucas Moura	25%	3.95	TOT	MID
Martin Odegaard	25%	4	ARS	MID
Jadon Sancho	25%	4	MUN	MID
Miguel Almiron	24%	4.1	NEW	MID
Raheem Sterling	24%	4.2	CHE	MID
Danny Ings	24%	4.25	AVL	FWD
Kai Havertz	23%	4.35	CHE	FWD
Allan Saint-Maximin	23%	4.35	NEW	MID
Ollie Watkins	23%	4.4	AVL	FWD
Christian Pulisic	22%	4.5	CHE	MID
Ivan Toney	22%	4.6	BRE	FWD
James Maddison	21%	4.7	LEI	MID
Che Adams	21%	4.75	SOU	FWD
Mason Mount	20%	5.1	CHE	MID
Harvey Barnes	20%	5.1	LEI	MID
Ivan Perisic	19%	5.3	TOT	DEF
Hee-Chan Hwang	19%	5.4	WOL	MID
Bruno Guimaraes	18%	5.5	NEW	MID
Goncalo Guedes	18%	5.5	WOL	MID
Harry Wilson	18%	5.6	FUL	MID
Leon Bailey	17%	5.8	AVL	MID
Christian Eriksen	17%	5.8	MUN	MID
Adam Armstrong	16%	6.25	SOU	FWD
Brenden Aaronson	16%	6.4	LEE	MID
Emiliano Buendia	15%	6.5	AVL	MID
Granit Xhaka	15%	6.75	ARS	MID
Andreas Pereira	15%	6.75	FUL	MID
Virgil van Dijk	15%	6.75	LIV	DEF
Trent Alexander-Arnold	15%	6.75	LIV	DEF
Yoane Wissa	13%	7.5	BRE	MID
Bryan Mbeumo	13%	7.5	BRE	FWD
Joao Cancelo	13%	7.5	MCI	DEF
Joe Willock	13%	7.5	NEW	MID

Erling Haaland (73%) remains unsure of a starting place for Man City this weekend after coming off the bench to score the winner against Fulham in Gameweek 15.
If he does start, the Bookies make him the heavy favourite to score as Brentford come to the Etihad in poor form away from home. In their last three away games, the Bees have conceded 11 goals (vs Newcastle, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest).
Man City have scored four or more goals in five of their seven home games this season, and if Haaland returns this weekend, they are likely to add to that number. So he takes our captain’s armband once more this weekend.

Mo Salah (56%) rewarded those that held him last week with a brace away at Spurs. The Egyptian have found some form of late playing in a new, more central role.
Southampton have just one clean sheet away from home all season, coming against Bournemouth in Gameweek 12. The Saints have conceded four goals on both occasions playing away at ‘Top Six’ opposition this year, and I fear Saturday comes too soon for new boss Nathan Jones to change much.
Salah is joined by teammate Darwin Nunez (51%), who has looked more dangerous in recent weeks, albeit without much returns. Nevertheless, he makes a reasonable one-week punt for those who can afford him.

Marcus Rashford’s (34%) form has been erratic of late, as is Manchester United’s after they lost 3-1 and looked toothless against Villa in Gameweek 15. Bruno Fernandes being out through suspension clearly had a massive impact, and with his return this weekend, the Bookies expect them to give Fulham all sorts of problems.
No midfielder has had more big chances in the last four games than Rashford, and while his finishing isn’t always the best, the volume of chances makes him appealing.

He is joined by United teammate Antony Martial (34%), who is firmly in the ‘one-week-punt’ category. The Frenchman’s season has been marred by injuries but has looked promising every time he plays, he and Rashford especially seem to enjoy playing together. With Fernandes’ return this week, there should be plenty of chances for the United pair.

Leandro Trossard (34%) has returned in each of his last three games since he trolled everyone by blanking at home to Forest in Gameweek 12. The Belgian is now playing out of position as the number nine and is looking a really good option. This week he takes in an Aston Villa side who have conceded seven goals in their last two away matches. It remains to be seen if Unai Emery can tighten them up on the road, but the Bookies fancy it might take a little longer.

On the bench for us this week is Leon Bailey (17%), who scored a great goal last week and Andreas Pereira (15%), up against his old club and on penalties with Mitrovic not on the field.

Team	Clean Sheet Probability	Odds
Man City	55%	1.81
Liverpool	46%	2.18
Arsenal	43%	2.33
Brighton	38%	2.6
Tottenham	37%	2.7
Crystal Palace	35%	2.85
West Ham	34%	2.9
Everton	33%	3.05
Bournemouth	31%	3.25
Man Utd	31%	3.25
Newcastle	31%	3.25
Nottingham Forest	28%	3.55
Chelsea	24%	4.1
Leicester	22%	4.5
Aston Villa	20%	4.9
Fulham	17%	5.8
Wolves	15%	6.75
Leeds	14%	7
Southampton	7%	14
Brentford	6%	18

Man City (55%) were somewhat unlucky to concede last weekend after a dubious penalty was awarded in the 28th minute after a good break from Fulham.
However, even though they conceded they demonstrated why they are the best defence in the league. With just ten men for over an hour, they only had expected goals conceded of 0.2. This shows the dominance of Guardiola’s team even with a man less on the field.
Cancelo owners (and especially captainers) can feel very hard done by, but now that his suspension has been served in the EFL Cup during the week, he’s a good pick going into GW16. He’s joined again by City teammate Manuel Akanji who seems to have made the LCB role his own.

Liverpool (46%) had a tough-fought victory away to Spurs in Gameweek 15, as a spell of late pressure almost saw them lose their two-goal advantage.
This week’s task should be much easier as they welcome Southampton, fresh off the sacking of Ralph Hassenhuttl. Though a new manager bounce could be in the offing, it seems more likely the Saints will continue to struggle. They’ve managed just three goals from open play in seven away games in the league this season.
Andy Robertson (£6.7m) has looked lively since returning from injury. In the last four games, he’s first for touches in the final third (110), and second for chances created (9) and third big chances created (2).

Arsenal (43%) look to be finding their defensive form again with three clean sheets in their last four games including last weekend away to Chelsea where they limited their hosts to just 0.24 expected goals.
They travel to Wolves on Saturday evening who are still without a recognised number nine.
Wolves attacking record at home makes for poor reading, scoring just three goals from open play in seven league games this season.
Aaron Ramsdale has been racking up the points with 24 in his last four games. He takes his place between the posts for us this weekend.

Brighton (38%) are finally starting to find some form under Roberto De Zerbi, winning their last three games in all competitions. This week they host Aston Villa who are going through something of a resurgence themselves, however, they still appear stunted away from home. They have conceded seven without reply in their last two home games and Unai Emery will have a tough task changing that at the Amex in Gameweek 16.
Pervis Estupinan has created seven chances in his last four games and looks a live wire from the left wing back position. At just 0.6% TSB he’s a great differential pick.

On the bench for us this week is Danny Ward (£4.1m) of Leicester (23%) and Nathan Patterson (£4.0m) of Everton (33%) returned from injury.

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Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here