“One-week punts” are the words on everyone in the community’s lips ahead of Gameweek 16. In the final week before the World Cup break and unlimited transfers, the Bookies’ Advantage team is full of high-potential differentials in every part of the pitch.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Your Complete World Cup Fantasy Guide
A close look at every group
Expert analysis of all 32 teams
Player ratings and recommendations from every team
A look at hidden gems and differential players
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 16
Player | Goal probability | Odds | Team | Position |
Erling Haaland | 73% | 1.37 | MCI | FWD |
Mohamed Salah | 56% | 1.77 | LIV | MID |
Julian Alvarez | 56% | 1.78 | MCI | FWD |
Harry Kane | 55% | 1.83 | TOT | FWD |
Darwin Nunez | 51% | 1.95 | LIV | FWD |
Roberto Firmino | 48% | 2.1 | LIV | FWD |
Cristiano Ronaldo | 47% | 2.15 | MUN | FWD |
Gabriel Jesus | 43% | 2.3 | ARS | FWD |
Phil Foden | 42% | 2.38 | MCI | MID |
Kevin De Bruyne | 42% | 2.38 | MCI | MID |
Aleksandar Mitrovic | 42% | 2.4 | FUL | FWD |
Callum Wilson | 41% | 2.43 | NEW | FWD |
Riyad Mahrez | 40% | 2.5 | MCI | MID |
Richarlison | 37% | 2.7 | TOT | FWD |
Eddie Nketiah | 36% | 2.75 | ARS | FWD |
Fabio Carvalho | 36% | 2.75 | LIV | MID |
Anthony Martial | 34% | 2.9 | MUN | FWD |
Marcus Rashford | 34% | 2.9 | MUN | MID |
Danny Welbeck | 34% | 2.95 | BHA | FWD |
Leandro Trossard | 34% | 2.95 | BHA | MID |
Gianluca Scamacca | 34% | 2.95 | WHU | FWD |
Gabriel Martinelli | 32% | 3.1 | ARS | MID |
Bukayo Saka | 32% | 3.1 | ARS | MID |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 32% | 3.15 | EVE | FWD |
Wilfried Zaha | 31% | 3.2 | CRY | MID |
Odsonne Edouard | 31% | 3.2 | CRY | FWD |
Bernardo Silva | 31% | 3.2 | MCI | MID |
Dominic Solanke | 30% | 3.3 | BOU | FWD |
Antony | 30% | 3.3 | MUN | MID |
Neal Maupay | 30% | 3.35 | EVE | FWD |
Jack Grealish | 30% | 3.35 | MCI | MID |
Michail Antonio | 30% | 3.35 | WHU | FWD |
Jamie Vardy | 29% | 3.4 | LEI | FWD |
Ilkay Gundogan | 29% | 3.45 | MCI | MID |
Jarrod Bowen | 29% | 3.45 | WHU | MID |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 29% | 3.5 | CHE | FWD |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 28% | 3.55 | CRY | FWD |
Carlos Vinicius | 28% | 3.6 | FUL | FWD |
Taiwo Awoniyi | 28% | 3.6 | NFO | FWD |
Patson Daka | 27% | 3.65 | LEI | FWD |
Kieffer Moore | 26% | 3.85 | BOU | FWD |
Anthony Gordon | 26% | 3.85 | EVE | MID |
Rodrigo | 26% | 3.85 | LEE | MID |
Armando Broja | 25% | 3.95 | CHE | FWD |
Patrick Bamford | 25% | 3.95 | LEE | FWD |
Kelechi Iheanacho | 25% | 3.95 | LEI | FWD |
Lucas Moura | 25% | 3.95 | TOT | MID |
Martin Odegaard | 25% | 4 | ARS | MID |
Jadon Sancho | 25% | 4 | MUN | MID |
Miguel Almiron | 24% | 4.1 | NEW | MID |
Raheem Sterling | 24% | 4.2 | CHE | MID |
Danny Ings | 24% | 4.25 | AVL | FWD |
Kai Havertz | 23% | 4.35 | CHE | FWD |
Allan Saint-Maximin | 23% | 4.35 | NEW | MID |
Ollie Watkins | 23% | 4.4 | AVL | FWD |
Christian Pulisic | 22% | 4.5 | CHE | MID |
Ivan Toney | 22% | 4.6 | BRE | FWD |
James Maddison | 21% | 4.7 | LEI | MID |
Che Adams | 21% | 4.75 | SOU | FWD |
Mason Mount | 20% | 5.1 | CHE | MID |
Harvey Barnes | 20% | 5.1 | LEI | MID |
Ivan Perisic | 19% | 5.3 | TOT | DEF |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 19% | 5.4 | WOL | MID |
Bruno Guimaraes | 18% | 5.5 | NEW | MID |
Goncalo Guedes | 18% | 5.5 | WOL | MID |
Harry Wilson | 18% | 5.6 | FUL | MID |
Leon Bailey | 17% | 5.8 | AVL | MID |
Christian Eriksen | 17% | 5.8 | MUN | MID |
Adam Armstrong | 16% | 6.25 | SOU | FWD |
Brenden Aaronson | 16% | 6.4 | LEE | MID |
Emiliano Buendia | 15% | 6.5 | AVL | MID |
Granit Xhaka | 15% | 6.75 | ARS | MID |
Andreas Pereira | 15% | 6.75 | FUL | MID |
Virgil van Dijk | 15% | 6.75 | LIV | DEF |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 15% | 6.75 | LIV | DEF |
Yoane Wissa | 13% | 7.5 | BRE | MID |
Bryan Mbeumo | 13% | 7.5 | BRE | FWD |
Joao Cancelo | 13% | 7.5 | MCI | DEF |
Joe Willock | 13% | 7.5 | NEW | MID |
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Erling Haaland (73%) remains unsure of a starting place for Man City this weekend after coming off the bench to score the winner against Fulham in Gameweek 15.
If he does start, the Bookies make him the heavy favourite to score as Brentford come to the Etihad in poor form away from home. In their last three away games, the Bees have conceded 11 goals (vs Newcastle, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest).
Man City have scored four or more goals in five of their seven home games this season, and if Haaland returns this weekend, they are likely to add to that number. So he takes our captain’s armband once more this weekend.
Mo Salah (56%) rewarded those that held him last week with a brace away at Spurs. The Egyptian have found some form of late playing in a new, more central role.
Southampton have just one clean sheet away from home all season, coming against Bournemouth in Gameweek 12. The Saints have conceded four goals on both occasions playing away at ‘Top Six’ opposition this year, and I fear Saturday comes too soon for new boss Nathan Jones to change much.
Salah is joined by teammate Darwin Nunez (51%), who has looked more dangerous in recent weeks, albeit without much returns. Nevertheless, he makes a reasonable one-week punt for those who can afford him.
Marcus Rashford’s (34%) form has been erratic of late, as is Manchester United’s after they lost 3-1 and looked toothless against Villa in Gameweek 15. Bruno Fernandes being out through suspension clearly had a massive impact, and with his return this weekend, the Bookies expect them to give Fulham all sorts of problems.
No midfielder has had more big chances in the last four games than Rashford, and while his finishing isn’t always the best, the volume of chances makes him appealing.
He is joined by United teammate Antony Martial (34%), who is firmly in the ‘one-week-punt’ category. The Frenchman’s season has been marred by injuries but has looked promising every time he plays, he and Rashford especially seem to enjoy playing together. With Fernandes’ return this week, there should be plenty of chances for the United pair.
Leandro Trossard (34%) has returned in each of his last three games since he trolled everyone by blanking at home to Forest in Gameweek 12. The Belgian is now playing out of position as the number nine and is looking a really good option. This week he takes in an Aston Villa side who have conceded seven goals in their last two away matches. It remains to be seen if Unai Emery can tighten them up on the road, but the Bookies fancy it might take a little longer.
On the bench for us this week is Leon Bailey (17%), who scored a great goal last week and Andreas Pereira (15%), up against his old club and on penalties with Mitrovic not on the field.
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 16
Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
Man City | 55% | 1.81 |
Liverpool | 46% | 2.18 |
Arsenal | 43% | 2.33 |
Brighton | 38% | 2.6 |
Tottenham | 37% | 2.7 |
Crystal Palace | 35% | 2.85 |
West Ham | 34% | 2.9 |
Everton | 33% | 3.05 |
Bournemouth | 31% | 3.25 |
Man Utd | 31% | 3.25 |
Newcastle | 31% | 3.25 |
Nottingham Forest | 28% | 3.55 |
Chelsea | 24% | 4.1 |
Leicester | 22% | 4.5 |
Aston Villa | 20% | 4.9 |
Fulham | 17% | 5.8 |
Wolves | 15% | 6.75 |
Leeds | 14% | 7 |
Southampton | 7% | 14 |
Brentford | 6% | 18 |
Man City (55%) were somewhat unlucky to concede last weekend after a dubious penalty was awarded in the 28th minute after a good break from Fulham.
However, even though they conceded they demonstrated why they are the best defence in the league. With just ten men for over an hour, they only had expected goals conceded of 0.2. This shows the dominance of Guardiola’s team even with a man less on the field.
Cancelo owners (and especially captainers) can feel very hard done by, but now that his suspension has been served in the EFL Cup during the week, he’s a good pick going into GW16. He’s joined again by City teammate Manuel Akanji who seems to have made the LCB role his own.
Liverpool (46%) had a tough-fought victory away to Spurs in Gameweek 15, as a spell of late pressure almost saw them lose their two-goal advantage.
This week’s task should be much easier as they welcome Southampton, fresh off the sacking of Ralph Hassenhuttl. Though a new manager bounce could be in the offing, it seems more likely the Saints will continue to struggle. They’ve managed just three goals from open play in seven away games in the league this season.
Andy Robertson (£6.7m) has looked lively since returning from injury. In the last four games, he’s first for touches in the final third (110), and second for chances created (9) and third big chances created (2).
Arsenal (43%) look to be finding their defensive form again with three clean sheets in their last four games including last weekend away to Chelsea where they limited their hosts to just 0.24 expected goals.
They travel to Wolves on Saturday evening who are still without a recognised number nine.
Wolves attacking record at home makes for poor reading, scoring just three goals from open play in seven league games this season.
Aaron Ramsdale has been racking up the points with 24 in his last four games. He takes his place between the posts for us this weekend.
Brighton (38%) are finally starting to find some form under Roberto De Zerbi, winning their last three games in all competitions. This week they host Aston Villa who are going through something of a resurgence themselves, however, they still appear stunted away from home. They have conceded seven without reply in their last two home games and Unai Emery will have a tough task changing that at the Amex in Gameweek 16.
Pervis Estupinan has created seven chances in his last four games and looks a live wire from the left wing back position. At just 0.6% TSB he’s a great differential pick.
On the bench for us this week is Danny Ward (£4.1m) of Leicester (23%) and Nathan Patterson (£4.0m) of Everton (33%) returned from injury.
We have written a complete guide to all the World Cup groups:
Bookies’ Team of the Week Gameweek 16

Your Complete World Cup Fantasy Guide
A close look at every group
Expert analysis of all 32 teams
Player ratings and recommendations from every team
A look at hidden gems and differential players
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here