Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 16

“One-week punts” are the words on everyone in the community’s lips ahead of Gameweek 16. In the final week before the World Cup break and unlimited transfers, the Bookies’ Advantage team is full of high-potential differentials in every part of the pitch.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Your Complete World Cup Fantasy Guide

A close look at every group

Expert analysis of all 32 teams

Player ratings and recommendations from every team

A look at hidden gems and differential players

Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 16

PlayerGoal probabilityOddsTeamPosition
Erling Haaland73%1.37MCIFWD
Mohamed Salah56%1.77LIVMID
Julian Alvarez56%1.78MCIFWD
Harry Kane55%1.83TOTFWD
Darwin Nunez51%1.95LIVFWD
Roberto Firmino48%2.1LIVFWD
Cristiano Ronaldo47%2.15MUNFWD
Gabriel Jesus43%2.3ARSFWD
Phil Foden42%2.38MCIMID
Kevin De Bruyne42%2.38MCIMID
Aleksandar Mitrovic42%2.4FULFWD
Callum Wilson41%2.43NEWFWD
Riyad Mahrez40%2.5MCIMID
Eddie Nketiah36%2.75ARSFWD
Fabio Carvalho36%2.75LIVMID
Anthony Martial34%2.9MUNFWD
Marcus Rashford34%2.9MUNMID
Danny Welbeck34%2.95BHAFWD
Leandro Trossard34%2.95BHAMID
Gianluca Scamacca34%2.95WHUFWD
Gabriel Martinelli32%3.1ARSMID
Bukayo Saka32%3.1ARSMID
Dominic Calvert-Lewin32%3.15EVEFWD
Wilfried Zaha31%3.2CRYMID
Odsonne Edouard31%3.2CRYFWD
Bernardo Silva31%3.2MCIMID
Dominic Solanke30%3.3BOUFWD
Neal Maupay30%3.35EVEFWD
Jack Grealish30%3.35MCIMID
Michail Antonio30%3.35WHUFWD
Jamie Vardy29%3.4LEIFWD
Ilkay Gundogan29%3.45MCIMID
Jarrod Bowen29%3.45WHUMID
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang29%3.5CHEFWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta28%3.55CRYFWD
Carlos Vinicius28%3.6FULFWD
Taiwo Awoniyi28%3.6NFOFWD
Patson Daka27%3.65LEIFWD
Kieffer Moore26%3.85BOUFWD
Anthony Gordon26%3.85EVEMID
Armando Broja25%3.95CHEFWD
Patrick Bamford25%3.95LEEFWD
Kelechi Iheanacho25%3.95LEIFWD
Lucas Moura25%3.95TOTMID
Martin Odegaard25%4ARSMID
Jadon Sancho25%4MUNMID
Miguel Almiron24%4.1NEWMID
Raheem Sterling24%4.2CHEMID
Danny Ings24%4.25AVLFWD
Kai Havertz23%4.35CHEFWD
Allan Saint-Maximin23%4.35NEWMID
Ollie Watkins23%4.4AVLFWD
Christian Pulisic22%4.5CHEMID
Ivan Toney22%4.6BREFWD
James Maddison21%4.7LEIMID
Che Adams21%4.75SOUFWD
Mason Mount20%5.1CHEMID
Harvey Barnes20%5.1LEIMID
Ivan Perisic19%5.3TOTDEF
Hee-Chan Hwang19%5.4WOLMID
Bruno Guimaraes18%5.5NEWMID
Goncalo Guedes18%5.5WOLMID
Harry Wilson18%5.6FULMID
Leon Bailey17%5.8AVLMID
Christian Eriksen17%5.8MUNMID
Adam Armstrong16%6.25SOUFWD
Brenden Aaronson16%6.4LEEMID
Emiliano Buendia15%6.5AVLMID
Granit Xhaka15%6.75ARSMID
Andreas Pereira15%6.75FULMID
Virgil van Dijk15%6.75LIVDEF
Trent Alexander-Arnold15%6.75LIVDEF
Yoane Wissa13%7.5BREMID
Bryan Mbeumo13%7.5BREFWD
Joao Cancelo13%7.5MCIDEF
Joe Willock13%7.5NEWMID
Premier League Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 16

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Erling Haaland (73%) remains unsure of a starting place for Man City this weekend after coming off the bench to score the winner against Fulham in Gameweek 15.
If he does start, the Bookies make him the heavy favourite to score as Brentford come to the Etihad in poor form away from home. In their last three away games, the Bees have conceded 11 goals (vs Newcastle, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest).
Man City have scored four or more goals in five of their seven home games this season, and if Haaland returns this weekend, they are likely to add to that number. So he takes our captain’s armband once more this weekend.

Mo Salah (56%) rewarded those that held him last week with a brace away at Spurs. The Egyptian have found some form of late playing in a new, more central role.
Southampton have just one clean sheet away from home all season, coming against Bournemouth in Gameweek 12. The Saints have conceded four goals on both occasions playing away at ‘Top Six’ opposition this year, and I fear Saturday comes too soon for new boss Nathan Jones to change much.
Salah is joined by teammate Darwin Nunez (51%), who has looked more dangerous in recent weeks, albeit without much returns. Nevertheless, he makes a reasonable one-week punt for those who can afford him.

Marcus Rashford’s (34%) form has been erratic of late, as is Manchester United’s after they lost 3-1 and looked toothless against Villa in Gameweek 15. Bruno Fernandes being out through suspension clearly had a massive impact, and with his return this weekend, the Bookies expect them to give Fulham all sorts of problems.
No midfielder has had more big chances in the last four games than Rashford, and while his finishing isn’t always the best, the volume of chances makes him appealing.

He is joined by United teammate Antony Martial (34%), who is firmly in the ‘one-week-punt’ category. The Frenchman’s season has been marred by injuries but has looked promising every time he plays, he and Rashford especially seem to enjoy playing together. With Fernandes’ return this week, there should be plenty of chances for the United pair.

Leandro Trossard (34%) has returned in each of his last three games since he trolled everyone by blanking at home to Forest in Gameweek 12. The Belgian is now playing out of position as the number nine and is looking a really good option. This week he takes in an Aston Villa side who have conceded seven goals in their last two away matches. It remains to be seen if Unai Emery can tighten them up on the road, but the Bookies fancy it might take a little longer.

On the bench for us this week is Leon Bailey (17%), who scored a great goal last week and Andreas Pereira (15%), up against his old club and on penalties with Mitrovic not on the field.

Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 16

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City55%1.81
Crystal Palace35%2.85
West Ham34%2.9
Man Utd31%3.25
Nottingham Forest28%3.55
Aston Villa20%4.9
Premier League Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 16

Man City (55%) were somewhat unlucky to concede last weekend after a dubious penalty was awarded in the 28th minute after a good break from Fulham.
However, even though they conceded they demonstrated why they are the best defence in the league. With just ten men for over an hour, they only had expected goals conceded of 0.2. This shows the dominance of Guardiola’s team even with a man less on the field.
Cancelo owners (and especially captainers) can feel very hard done by, but now that his suspension has been served in the EFL Cup during the week, he’s a good pick going into GW16. He’s joined again by City teammate Manuel Akanji who seems to have made the LCB role his own.

Liverpool (46%) had a tough-fought victory away to Spurs in Gameweek 15, as a spell of late pressure almost saw them lose their two-goal advantage.
This week’s task should be much easier as they welcome Southampton, fresh off the sacking of Ralph Hassenhuttl. Though a new manager bounce could be in the offing, it seems more likely the Saints will continue to struggle. They’ve managed just three goals from open play in seven away games in the league this season.
Andy Robertson (£6.7m) has looked lively since returning from injury. In the last four games, he’s first for touches in the final third (110), and second for chances created (9) and third big chances created (2).

Arsenal (43%) look to be finding their defensive form again with three clean sheets in their last four games including last weekend away to Chelsea where they limited their hosts to just 0.24 expected goals.
They travel to Wolves on Saturday evening who are still without a recognised number nine.
Wolves attacking record at home makes for poor reading, scoring just three goals from open play in seven league games this season.
Aaron Ramsdale has been racking up the points with 24 in his last four games. He takes his place between the posts for us this weekend.

Brighton (38%) are finally starting to find some form under Roberto De Zerbi, winning their last three games in all competitions. This week they host Aston Villa who are going through something of a resurgence themselves, however, they still appear stunted away from home. They have conceded seven without reply in their last two home games and Unai Emery will have a tough task changing that at the Amex in Gameweek 16.
Pervis Estupinan has created seven chances in his last four games and looks a live wire from the left wing back position. At just 0.6% TSB he’s a great differential pick.

On the bench for us this week is Danny Ward (£4.1m) of Leicester (23%) and Nathan Patterson (£4.0m) of Everton (33%) returned from injury.

We have written a complete guide to all the World Cup groups:

Bookies’ Team of the Week Gameweek 16

Bookie's team of the week based on clean sheet odds gameweek 16

Your Complete World Cup Fantasy Guide

A close look at every group

Expert analysis of all 32 teams

Player ratings and recommendations from every team

A look at hidden gems and differential players

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here