FPL returns, and with it, the Bookies’ Advantage!
With three gameweeks coming thick and fast, making a good start (or restart) is essential. This week sees the return of the king and the return of a troll (or two). A few differentials also feature, which could give you the jump on your mini-league rivals.
Don’t miss our Gameweek 17 Wildcard team
Check out our analysis of all the captaincy options for gameweek 17
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 17
| Player | Goal probability | Odds |
| Erling Haaland | 67% | 1.5 |
| Harry Kane | 47% | 2.14 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 45% | 2.23 |
| Anthony Martial | 42% | 2.38 |
| Mohamed Salah | 41% | 2.43 |
| Marcus Rashford | 40% | 2.48 |
| Callum Wilson | 40% | 2.48 |
| Raheem Sterling | 40% | 2.5 |
| Darwin Nunez | 39% | 2.55 |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | 38% | 2.6 |
| Kai Havertz | 38% | 2.63 |
| Ivan Toney | 37% | 2.7 |
| Antony | 37% | 2.7 |
| Eddie Nketiah | 36% | 2.75 |
| Christian Pulisic | 35% | 2.85 |
| Wilfried Zaha | 34% | 2.9 |
| Odsonne Edouard | 34% | 2.9 |
| Phil Foden | 34% | 2.9 |
| Son Heung-Min | 34% | 2.9 |
| Roberto Firmino | 34% | 2.95 |
| Bruno Fernandes | 34% | 2.95 |
| Riyad Mahrez | 33% | 3.05 |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 32% | 3.1 |
| Bukayo Saka | 32% | 3.1 |
| Mason Mount | 32% | 3.1 |
| Danny Welbeck | 32% | 3.15 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 31% | 3.2 |
| Neal Maupay | 31% | 3.2 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 31% | 3.25 |
| Leandro Trossard | 29% | 3.4 |
| Jamie Vardy | 29% | 3.4 |
| Patson Daka | 29% | 3.5 |
| Jadon Sancho | 29% | 3.5 |
| Kelechi Iheanacho | 28% | 3.6 |
| Fabio Carvalho | 27% | 3.7 |
| Che Adams | 26% | 3.8 |
| Anthony Gordon | 26% | 3.85 |
| Carlos Vinicius | 26% | 3.9 |
| Danny Ings | 25% | 3.95 |
| Martin Odegaard | 25% | 4 |
| Ilkay Gundogan | 25% | 4 |
| Miguel Almiron | 25% | 4 |
| Raul Jimenez | 25% | 4 |
| Ollie Watkins | 24% | 4.1 |
| Allan Saint-Maximin | 24% | 4.2 |
| Diego Costa | 24% | 4.2 |
| Rodrigo | 23% | 4.35 |
| James Maddison | 23% | 4.35 |
| Harvey Barnes | 23% | 4.35 |
| Yoane Wissa | 23% | 4.4 |
| Bernardo Silva | 23% | 4.4 |
| Jack Grealish | 22% | 4.6 |
| Lucas Moura | 22% | 4.6 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang | 21% | 4.7 |
| Goncalo Guedes | 21% | 4.75 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 21% | 4.8 |
| Adam Armstrong | 21% | 4.8 |
| Gianluca Scamacca | 21% | 4.8 |
| Dominic Solanke | 19% | 5.2 |
| Christian Eriksen | 19% | 5.2 |
| Pascal Gross | 19% | 5.3 |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 19% | 5.3 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | 19% | 5.3 |
| Michail Antonio | 19% | 5.4 |
| Leon Bailey | 18% | 5.5 |
| Philippe Coutinho | 18% | 5.5 |
| Jarrod Bowen | 18% | 5.6 |
| Kieffer Moore | 17% | 5.8 |
| Harry Wilson | 17% | 6 |
| Emiliano Buendia | 16% | 6.1 |
| Ivan Perisic | 16% | 6.25 |
| Granit Xhaka | 15% | 6.75 |
| Joe Willock | 15% | 6.75 |
| Andreas Pereira | 13% | 7.5 |
| Brenden Aaronson | 12% | 8.5 |
| Joao Cancelo | 12% | 8.5 |
| Virgil van Dijk | 11% | 9 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 11% | 9 |
Odds from Betsson. They currently offer up to €100 in first deposit bonus. Claim your offer here. 18+, T&Cs apply.
Surprise surprise, Erling Haaland (67%) is the most likely goalscorer heading into Gameweek 17. The Norwegian will be looking to pick up where he left off after bagging a staggering 18 goals in 12 starts to begin the season.
This weekend he returns to the city of his birth, Leeds, to take on a Jesse Marsch side who were looking porous defensively before the break, conceding 11 goals in four games.
There’s really not much more to say. Sticking the captaincy on Haaland this weekend is one of the easiest decisions of the year!
He’s joined up front by the ever-reliant Harry Kane (47%) who will be looking to put painful World Cup memories to bed. Spurs have only failed to score once this season, away at Man United in Gameweek 12, and they scored nine in four before the break with Kane returning four times in that run. Brentford by contrast have conceded eight in their last four and look to be less solid defensively this season.
Surprisingly beating out Mo Salah (41%), Kane takes his place as the second premium in our team.
Rounding out our front three is Anthony Martial (42%). Manchester United’s only recognised number nine, the Frenchman has had over a month to work on his fitness and should be raring to go. With Nottingham Forest at Old Trafford up first Martial offers a good differential option for very good value at just £6.7m.
He is joined in attack by teammate Marcus Rashford (40%) who seems to be back to his old self this season. The 23-year-old has very impressive underlying statistics and is second only to Salah for big chances (10) amongst midfielders. Nottingham Forest have conceded 19 goals in seven away matches so far this season. The Man United double-up looks the way to go in attack.
Surprisingly, Raheem Sterling (40%) is up next as he takes on Bournemouth in Stamford Bridge this gameweek. It would appear the Bookies dislike the visitors’ defence rather than fancying the home side’s attack. Bournemouth have conceded 24 goals in seven away games, though to be fair, nine of those came against Liverpool in Gameweek 4. If Chelsea do score, Sterling seems the most likely to get it.
The ultimate FPL troll, Wilfried Zaha (33%) has looked sharp in the “pre-season friendlies” scoring three goals in the last two games. He takes on Fulham in Gameweek 17 who have conceded 13 goals in seven away games so far this season. Often a frustrating asset to own, he is capable of big scores against any opposition.
On the bench for us in attack, this week is Leon Bailey (18%) and Andreas Pereira (13%) who both continue to offer great value at their price point.
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 17
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Chelsea | 54% | 1.86 |
| Man Utd | 53% | 1.88 |
| Arsenal | 45% | 2.23 |
| Man City | 44% | 2.25 |
| Everton | 36% | 2.8 |
| Crystal Palace | 35% | 2.88 |
| Liverpool | 35% | 2.88 |
| Tottenham | 33% | 3 |
| Brighton | 33% | 3.05 |
| Newcastle | 31% | 3.25 |
| Wolves | 29% | 3.5 |
| Southampton | 23% | 4.35 |
| Fulham | 23% | 4.4 |
| Leicester | 23% | 4.4 |
| Brentford | 20% | 5.1 |
| Aston Villa | 16% | 6.25 |
| West Ham | 15% | 6.75 |
| Bournemouth | 11% | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 11% | 9.5 |
| Leeds | 9% | 11.5 |
Odds from Betsson. They currently offer up to €100 in first deposit bonus. Claim your offer here. 18+, T&Cs apply.
Chelsea (54%) top the billing in terms of clean sheet odds heading into the restart. The Stamford Bridge faithful will be hoping Potter has had enough time to work his magic during the break. The Blues have been poor defensively so far this season so the Bookies clearly have little faith in Bournemouth.
Not without reason. The Cherries have managed just two goals in their four games against top six opposition, both of which came at home to Spurs.
Reece James is back fit having played 60 minutes in a friendly on Tuesday night. His explosive potential is too tempting to turn down. He’s joined by teammate Kepa Arrizabalaga who has three clean sheets in six starts so far this year and looks to have recovered from injury too.
Manchester United (53%) are next up. Ten Hag’s men showed an uptick in defensive form, keeping their opponents scoreless in three of their last six games before the break.
A home game vs Nottingham Forest should provide them with the perfect opportunity to improve this record. Forest sit bottom for goals scored away from home with just one goal in seven Premier League games.
Luke Shaw looks to have nailed down his place at right back and has two assists in his last four before the break. His threat from crosses and set pieces make him a decent choice.
Then, to league leaders Arsenal (45%).
The Gunners had been in brilliant defensive form before the break, keeping four clean sheets in five games. Over the season no one has conceded less than them. They are also best for expected goals conceded in home games (4.88).
West Ham conversely have scored just three goals in seven away matches and David Moyes’ side seem to be really struggling in front of goal.
With 34 points in the last five gameweeks, Gabriel is an easy choice in this spot. The centre back is always dangerous from set pieces and the Bookies really fancy Arsenal for a clean sheet in this one.
Lastly, Manchester City (44%) will look to get straight back to business when they take on Leeds at Elland Road, with a five point gap now behind Arsenal in first, they can ill afford any more slip ups.
City’s defensive form this season has been slightly under what we usually expect from Guardiola however they are first for expected goals conceded away from home this season with only Arsenal having a better actual goals conceded record.
Cancelo has been a somewhat divisive pick in the community during the break but his explosiveness combined with being a guaranteed start make him too hard to leave out of our team this week.
On the bench for us this week is Danny Ward (£4.1m) of Leicester (23%) who have turned their season around after a bad start. He is joined by Nathan Patterson (£4.0m) of Everton (35%) who host the lowest scorers in the league, Wolves.
Team of the week Gameweek 17
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here