Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 2

Managers are presented with a captaincy conundrum heading into the second gameweek of the season, however, the odds are unable to split the two, who are joined by a trio of English attackers.

Meanwhile, in defence, there are plenty of budget assets with very high potential for points this weekend.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goal scoring odds

Mohamed Salah57%1.76LIVMID
Erling Haaland57%1.76MCIFWD
Darwin Nunez48%2.07LIVFWD
Luis Díaz45%2.23LIVMID
Aleksandar Mitrovic43%2.33FULFWD
Nicolas Jackson43%2.35CHEFWD
Ollie Watkins42%2.4AVLFWD
Evan Ferguson40%2.5BHAFWD
Marcus Rashford40%2.5MUNMID
Taiwo Awoniyi40%2.5NFOFWD
Julian Alvarez38%2.65MCIFWD
Son Heung-Min37%2.7TOTMID
Diego Jota36%2.8LIVMID
João Pedro34%2.9BHAFWD
Raheem Sterling34%2.95CHEMID
Kai Havertz33%3ARSMID
Bukayo Saka33%3ARSMID
Carlos Vinicius33%3.05FULFWD
Gabriel Martinelli32%3.1ARSMID
Moussa Diaby32%3.1AVLMID
Cody Gakpo32%3.15LIVFWD
Bryan Mbeumo30%3.35BREMID
Phil Foden30%3.35MCIMID
Cameron Archer29%3.4AVLFWD
Kaoru Mitoma29%3.4BHAMID
James Maddison29%3.4TOTMID
Yoane Wissa29%3.5BREFWD
Callum Wilson29%3.5NEWFWD
Bruno Fernandes28%3.6MUNMID
Sasa Kalajdzic28%3.6WOLFWD
Alex Mac Allister27%3.75LIVMID
Leandro Trossard26%3.8ARSMID
Alexander Isak26%3.85NEWFWD
Chris Wood26%3.9NFOFWD
Brennan Johnson26%3.9NFOFWD
Danny Ings25%4WHUFWD
Dominic Solanke24%4.1BOUFWD
Anthony Martial24%4.1MUNFWD
Martin Odegaard24%4.25ARSMID
William Osula24%4.25SHUFWD
Morgan Gibbs-White23%4.3NFOFWD
Kevin Schade23%4.4BREMID
Kieffer Moore22%4.5BOUFWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta22%4.5CRYFWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin22%4.5EVEFWD
Solly March22%4.6BHAMID
Odsonne Edouard22%4.6CRYFWD
Michail Antonio21%4.75WHUFWD
Harvey Barnes21%4.8NEWMID
Jarrod Bowen21%4.8WHUMID
Bernardo Silva20%4.9MCIMID
Palmer Cole20%4.9MCIMID
Justin Kluivert20%5BOUMID
Jadon Sancho20%5.1MUNMID
Pascal Gross19%5.2BHAMID
Daniel Podence19%5.2WOLMID
Said Benrahma19%5.3WHUMID
Hee-Chan Hwang19%5.3WOLMID
Bobby Reid18%5.5FULMID
Mason Mount18%5.5MUNMID
Dejan Kulusevski17%5.75TOTMID
Conor Gallagher17%5.8CHEMID
Harry Wilson17%5.8FULMID
Eberechi Eze17%6CRYMID
Jack Grealish17%6MCIMID
Neal Maupay16%6.1EVEFWD
Mykhaylo Mudryk15%6.5CHEMID
Andreas Pereira15%6.5FULMID
Ivan Perisic15%6.5TOTDEF
Reece James15%6.75CHEDEF
Demarai Gray15%6.75EVEMID
Miguel Almiron14%7NEWMID
Christian Eriksen13%7.5MUNMID
Declan Rice13%8ARSMID
Philip Billing13%8BOUMID
Trent Alexander-Arnold11%9.5LIVDEF
Anthony Gordon11%9.5NEWMID
Bruno Guimaraes11%9.5NEWMID
Virgil van Dijk10%10.5LIVDEF
Boubacar Traoré8%12WOLMID
Sandro Tonali7%15NEWMID
Goal scorer odds gameweek 2

Mohamed Salah and Erling Haaland both top the poll for goal-scoring odds at 57%. Both looked impressive in Gameweek One, with the Norwegian coming out on top in terms of points.

Salah could consider himself unlucky after seeing a goal chalked off for offside as well as Liverpool being controversially denied a penalty in the second half. On another day, the Egyptian could have easily had a massive haul.

With a new look Bournemouth coming to Anfield in Gameweek 2, Salah looks primed to re-establish his title as the FPL King.

Haaland meanwhile welcomes Newcastle to the Etihad to take on Eddie Howe’s High Flying Magpies after an excellent Gameweek 1. The Toon Army still didn’t look completely solid in defence and we know Haaland only needs one chance to score.

It’s a tight call for the captain’s armband in this gameweek’s Bookies Advantage XI but we slightly favour Salah, knowing he gets the extra point for a goal as well as the clean sheet bonus.

Nicolas Jackson (43%) missed three big chances against Liverpool last week in what was an eventful debut for the Senegalese international.

We’re hoping the new number nine can begin to convert those chances away at West Ham in Gameweek 2, and pray we don’t have another Timo Werner on our hands.

He is joined by Raheem Sterling (34%) who looked lively in Pochettino’s new look Chelsea side. After a disappointing campaign last time out, Sterling will be looking to show he’s not past it just yet and the bookies fancy him to open his account for the season in Gameweek 2.

Ollie Watkins (42%) is favoured over Mitrovic (43%) due to security of minutes in favour of the Englishman. Watkins managed a fortuitous assist against the Magpies in Gameweek One and had a few more chances go abegging.

Unai Emery’s men will be keen to set to rights that dismal display last weekend and a home game vs Everton could be just the tonic.

Marcus Rashford (40%) and Manchester United looked uninspiring in attack on Monday night as they were lucky to take all three points against a spirited Wolves side.

The striker-turned-winger-turned-striker-again did manage to record a respectable xG of 0.43 all of which came from just a single shot on target.

This weekend he travels to Spurs who looked wide open at times against Brentford, as they struggle to adapt to a new high pressing system. With Romero out as well, Ten Hag’s men could run riot on the break.

Our bench this week consists of Carney Chukwuemeka (£4.5m) who started and played 80 minutes for Chelsea last week, as well as Eliot Anderson (also £4.5m) who made a cameo off the bench.

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Clean sheet odds

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Nottingham Forest43%2.3
Aston Villa43%2.32
Man City39%2.55
Man Utd26%3.9
Sheffield Utd25%4
West Ham24%4.2
Crystal Palace18%5.6
Clean sheet odds gameweek 2

Some may be slightly surprised at Liverpool (48%) topping the clean sheet odds going into Gameweek Two as they looked defensively suspect last weekend and are clearly in dire need of a good defensive midfielder. While one has been signed, Wataru Endo, it seems unlikely he’ll be put from the start this weekend.

Their opponents on the other hand, were unimpressive in attack against West Ham, needing a late goal from Dominic Solanke that had more than an element of luck about it.

Last season, no team conceded more chances from set pieces than the Cherries (183), whilst Liverpool were joint top for goals from set pieces (18). We are therefore buying two tickets to this raffle with Virgil Van Dijk (£6.0m) and Ibrahima Konate (£5.0m).

Arsenal (48%) looked in control for large periods in Gameweek 1 against Nottingham Forest, eventually conceding a late Awoniyi goal. Owners of Arsenal’s defensive assets will be feeling nervy over whether this is a continuation of the poor defensive form we saw from the Gunners near the end of last year’s campaign.

This week they travel to Crystal Palace who battered Sheffield United while only walking away with a 1-0 win, they managed 24 shots with 17 of those coming inside the box.

William Saliba was a popular pick close to the Gameweek 1 deadline for some reason, and as Arsenal’s most nailed defender, he seems a good inclusion in our XI this week.

Aston Villa (43%) took an awful battering last weekend away at Newcastle and will be hoping for gentler treatment in Gameweek 2 when they come up against an attack spearheaded by Neal Maupay.

Everton managed four big chances against Fulham last week, the highest number of any team without scoring and they will be facing a much tougher test this gameweek.

Matty Cash recorded a -1 last weekend but missed a glorious chance to put the Villains level, he’s given licence to get forward in Emery’s system and we feel he’s worth the punt at just £4.5m.

Nottingham Forest (43%) limited Arsenal to an xG 0.83 and 0 big chances in Gameweek One and were undone largely by two pieces of brilliance by Martinelli and Saka.

This week they take on Sheffield United who themselves failed to have a single big chance whilst recording an xG of just 0.51 at home to Palace. Eight shots and one on target shows the Blades blunt edge in attack and shows why it’s a good idea to target them for clean sheets this weekend.

Matt Turner comes in at the low low price of £4.0m and acquitted himself well on his debut making 5 saves.

On the bench for us in defence is Alphonse Areola, as well as Jan Paul van Hecke, both starting for West Ham and Brighton respectively, and both costing just £4.0m.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here

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