Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 2

Managers are presented with a captaincy conundrum heading into the second gameweek of the season, however, the odds are unable to split the two, who are joined by a trio of English attackers.

Meanwhile, in defence, there are plenty of budget assets with very high potential for points this weekend.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goal scoring odds

Player	Probability	Odds	Team	Position
Mohamed Salah	57%	1.76	LIV	MID
Erling Haaland	57%	1.76	MCI	FWD
Darwin Nunez	48%	2.07	LIV	FWD
Luis Díaz	45%	2.23	LIV	MID
Aleksandar Mitrovic	43%	2.33	FUL	FWD
Nicolas Jackson	43%	2.35	CHE	FWD
Ollie Watkins	42%	2.4	AVL	FWD
Evan Ferguson	40%	2.5	BHA	FWD
Marcus Rashford	40%	2.5	MUN	MID
Taiwo Awoniyi	40%	2.5	NFO	FWD
Julian Alvarez	38%	2.65	MCI	FWD
Son Heung-Min	37%	2.7	TOT	MID
Diego Jota	36%	2.8	LIV	MID
João Pedro	34%	2.9	BHA	FWD
Raheem Sterling	34%	2.95	CHE	MID
Kai Havertz	33%	3	ARS	MID
Bukayo Saka	33%	3	ARS	MID
Carlos Vinicius	33%	3.05	FUL	FWD
Richarlison	33%	3.05	TOT	FWD
Gabriel Martinelli	32%	3.1	ARS	MID
Moussa Diaby	32%	3.1	AVL	MID
Cody Gakpo	32%	3.15	LIV	FWD
Bryan Mbeumo	30%	3.35	BRE	MID
Phil Foden	30%	3.35	MCI	MID
Cameron Archer	29%	3.4	AVL	FWD
Kaoru Mitoma	29%	3.4	BHA	MID
James Maddison	29%	3.4	TOT	MID
Yoane Wissa	29%	3.5	BRE	FWD
Callum Wilson	29%	3.5	NEW	FWD
Bruno Fernandes	28%	3.6	MUN	MID
Sasa Kalajdzic	28%	3.6	WOL	FWD
Alex Mac Allister	27%	3.75	LIV	MID
Leandro Trossard	26%	3.8	ARS	MID
Alexander Isak	26%	3.85	NEW	FWD
Chris Wood	26%	3.9	NFO	FWD
Brennan Johnson	26%	3.9	NFO	FWD
Danny Ings	25%	4	WHU	FWD
Dominic Solanke	24%	4.1	BOU	FWD
Anthony Martial	24%	4.1	MUN	FWD
Martin Odegaard	24%	4.25	ARS	MID
William Osula	24%	4.25	SHU	FWD
Morgan Gibbs-White	23%	4.3	NFO	FWD
Antony	23%	4.35	MUN	MID
Kevin Schade	23%	4.4	BRE	MID
Kieffer Moore	22%	4.5	BOU	FWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta	22%	4.5	CRY	FWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	22%	4.5	EVE	FWD
Solly March	22%	4.6	BHA	MID
Odsonne Edouard	22%	4.6	CRY	FWD
Michail Antonio	21%	4.75	WHU	FWD
Harvey Barnes	21%	4.8	NEW	MID
Jarrod Bowen	21%	4.8	WHU	MID
Bernardo Silva	20%	4.9	MCI	MID
Palmer Cole	20%	4.9	MCI	MID
Justin Kluivert	20%	5	BOU	MID
Jadon Sancho	20%	5.1	MUN	MID
Pascal Gross	19%	5.2	BHA	MID
Daniel Podence	19%	5.2	WOL	MID
Said Benrahma	19%	5.3	WHU	MID
Hee-Chan Hwang	19%	5.3	WOL	MID
Bobby Reid	18%	5.5	FUL	MID
Mason Mount	18%	5.5	MUN	MID
Dejan Kulusevski	17%	5.75	TOT	MID
Conor Gallagher	17%	5.8	CHE	MID
Harry Wilson	17%	5.8	FUL	MID
Eberechi Eze	17%	6	CRY	MID
Jack Grealish	17%	6	MCI	MID
Neal Maupay	16%	6.1	EVE	FWD
Mykhaylo Mudryk	15%	6.5	CHE	MID
Andreas Pereira	15%	6.5	FUL	MID
Ivan Perisic	15%	6.5	TOT	DEF
Reece James	15%	6.75	CHE	DEF
Demarai Gray	15%	6.75	EVE	MID
Enzo	14%	7	CHE	MID
Rodri	14%	7	MCI	MID
Miguel Almiron	14%	7	NEW	MID
Christian Eriksen	13%	7.5	MUN	MID
Declan Rice	13%	8	ARS	MID
Philip Billing	13%	8	BOU	MID
Trent Alexander-Arnold	11%	9.5	LIV	DEF
Anthony Gordon	11%	9.5	NEW	MID
Bruno Guimaraes	11%	9.5	NEW	MID
Virgil van Dijk	10%	10.5	LIV	DEF
Boubacar Traoré	8%	12	WOL	MID
Sandro Tonali	7%	15	NEW	MID

Mohamed Salah and Erling Haaland both top the poll for goal-scoring odds at 57%. Both looked impressive in Gameweek One, with the Norwegian coming out on top in terms of points.

Salah could consider himself unlucky after seeing a goal chalked off for offside as well as Liverpool being controversially denied a penalty in the second half. On another day, the Egyptian could have easily had a massive haul.

With a new look Bournemouth coming to Anfield in Gameweek 2, Salah looks primed to re-establish his title as the FPL King.

Haaland meanwhile welcomes Newcastle to the Etihad to take on Eddie Howe’s High Flying Magpies after an excellent Gameweek 1. The Toon Army still didn’t look completely solid in defence and we know Haaland only needs one chance to score.

It’s a tight call for the captain’s armband in this gameweek’s Bookies Advantage XI but we slightly favour Salah, knowing he gets the extra point for a goal as well as the clean sheet bonus.

Nicolas Jackson (43%) missed three big chances against Liverpool last week in what was an eventful debut for the Senegalese international.

We’re hoping the new number nine can begin to convert those chances away at West Ham in Gameweek 2, and pray we don’t have another Timo Werner on our hands.

He is joined by Raheem Sterling (34%) who looked lively in Pochettino’s new look Chelsea side. After a disappointing campaign last time out, Sterling will be looking to show he’s not past it just yet and the bookies fancy him to open his account for the season in Gameweek 2.

Ollie Watkins (42%) is favoured over Mitrovic (43%) due to security of minutes in favour of the Englishman. Watkins managed a fortuitous assist against the Magpies in Gameweek One and had a few more chances go abegging.

Unai Emery’s men will be keen to set to rights that dismal display last weekend and a home game vs Everton could be just the tonic.

Marcus Rashford (40%) and Manchester United looked uninspiring in attack on Monday night as they were lucky to take all three points against a spirited Wolves side.

The striker-turned-winger-turned-striker-again did manage to record a respectable xG of 0.43 all of which came from just a single shot on target.

This weekend he travels to Spurs who looked wide open at times against Brentford, as they struggle to adapt to a new high pressing system. With Romero out as well, Ten Hag’s men could run riot on the break.

Our bench this week consists of Carney Chukwuemeka (£4.5m) who started and played 80 minutes for Chelsea last week, as well as Eliot Anderson (also £4.5m) who made a cameo off the bench.

Clean sheet odds

Team	Clean Sheet Probability	Odds
Arsenal	48%	2.07
Liverpool	48%	2.07
Nottingham Forest	43%	2.3
Aston Villa	43%	2.32
Man City	39%	2.55
Chelsea	37%	2.7
Brighton	36%	2.8
Brentford	31%	3.2
Fulham	30%	3.35
Man Utd	26%	3.9
Sheffield Utd	25%	4
West Ham	24%	4.2
Tottenham	23%	4.4
Wolves	20%	4.9
Everton	19%	5.2
Crystal Palace	18%	5.6
Newcastle	16%	6.1
Bournemouth	8%	13

Some may be slightly surprised at Liverpool (48%) topping the clean sheet odds going into Gameweek Two as they looked defensively suspect last weekend and are clearly in dire need of a good defensive midfielder. While one has been signed, Wataru Endo, it seems unlikely he’ll be put from the start this weekend.

Their opponents on the other hand, were unimpressive in attack against West Ham, needing a late goal from Dominic Solanke that had more than an element of luck about it.

Last season, no team conceded more chances from set pieces than the Cherries (183), whilst Liverpool were joint top for goals from set pieces (18). We are therefore buying two tickets to this raffle with Virgil Van Dijk (£6.0m) and Ibrahima Konate (£5.0m).

Arsenal (48%) looked in control for large periods in Gameweek 1 against Nottingham Forest, eventually conceding a late Awoniyi goal. Owners of Arsenal’s defensive assets will be feeling nervy over whether this is a continuation of the poor defensive form we saw from the Gunners near the end of last year’s campaign.

This week they travel to Crystal Palace who battered Sheffield United while only walking away with a 1-0 win, they managed 24 shots with 17 of those coming inside the box.

William Saliba was a popular pick close to the Gameweek 1 deadline for some reason, and as Arsenal’s most nailed defender, he seems a good inclusion in our XI this week.

Aston Villa (43%) took an awful battering last weekend away at Newcastle and will be hoping for gentler treatment in Gameweek 2 when they come up against an attack spearheaded by Neal Maupay.

Everton managed four big chances against Fulham last week, the highest number of any team without scoring and they will be facing a much tougher test this gameweek.

Matty Cash recorded a -1 last weekend but missed a glorious chance to put the Villains level, he’s given licence to get forward in Emery’s system and we feel he’s worth the punt at just £4.5m.

Nottingham Forest (43%) limited Arsenal to an xG 0.83 and 0 big chances in Gameweek One and were undone largely by two pieces of brilliance by Martinelli and Saka.

This week they take on Sheffield United who themselves failed to have a single big chance whilst recording an xG of just 0.51 at home to Palace. Eight shots and one on target shows the Blades blunt edge in attack and shows why it’s a good idea to target them for clean sheets this weekend.

Matt Turner comes in at the low low price of £4.0m and acquitted himself well on his debut making 5 saves.

On the bench for us in defence is Alphonse Areola, as well as Jan Paul van Hecke, both starting for West Ham and Brighton respectively, and both costing just £4.0m.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here