Gameweek 2 offer a new record for most likely goalscorer witnessed by the Bookie’s Advantage’s editorial team. In addition, there are intriguing predictions in midfield and relief for those who hold on to a particular Brazilian.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 2:
| Player | Goal probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 77% | 1.3 | MCI | FWD |
| Mohamed Salah | 58% | 1.73 | LIV | MID |
| Darwin Nunez | 55% | 1.83 | LIV | FWD |
| Riyad Mahrez | 52% | 1.91 | MCI | MID |
| Gabriel Jesus | 50% | 2 | ARS | FWD |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 50% | 2 | MUN | FWD |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 48% | 2.1 | MCI | MID |
| Phil Foden | 45% | 2.2 | MCI | MID |
| Roberto Firmino | 43% | 2.3 | LIV | FWD |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | 42% | 2.4 | FUL | FWD |
| Luis Diaz | 42% | 2.4 | LIV | MID |
| Danny Ings | 40% | 2.5 | AVL | FWD |
| Bukayo Saka | 40% | 2.5 | ARS | MID |
| Patrick Bamford | 40% | 2.5 | LEE | FWD |
| Harry Kane | 38% | 2.6 | TOT | FWD |
| Ollie Watkins | 38% | 2.63 | AVL | FWD |
| Che Adams | 37% | 2.7 | SOU | FWD |
| Michail Antonio | 37% | 2.7 | WHU | FWD |
| Philippe Coutinho | 36% | 2.75 | AVL | MID |
| Adam Armstrong | 36% | 2.75 | SOU | FWD |
| Ilkay Gundogan | 36% | 2.8 | MCI | MID |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 36% | 2.8 | ARS | MID |
| Ivan Toney | 36% | 2.8 | BRE | FWD |
| Fabio Carvalho | 36% | 2.8 | LIV | MID |
| Cameron Archer | 35% | 2.88 | AVL | FWD |
| Callum Wilson | 35% | 2.88 | NEW | FWD |
| Bruno Fernandes | 35% | 2.88 | MUN | MID |
| Gianluca Scamacca | 35% | 2.88 | WHU | FWD |
| Maxwel Cornet | 35% | 2.88 | WHU | MID |
| Jack Grealish | 33% | 3 | MCI | MID |
| Neal Maupay | 33% | 3 | BHA | FWD |
| Nicolas Pepe | 33% | 3 | ARS | MID |
| Goncalo Guedes | 32% | 3.1 | WOL | MID |
| Jamie Vardy | 32% | 3.1 | LEI | FWD |
| Richarlison | 32% | 3.1 | TOT | FWD |
| Kai Havertz | 31% | 3.2 | CHE | FWD |
| Armando Broja | 31% | 3.25 | CHE | FWD |
| Bernardo Silva | 30% | 3.3 | MCI | MID |
| Deniz Undav | 30% | 3.3 | BHA | FWD |
| Marcus Rashford | 30% | 3.3 | MUN | MID |
| Harvey Elliott | 30% | 3.3 | LIV | MID |
| Son Heung-Min | 30% | 3.35 | TOT | FWD |
| Rodrigo Muniz | 29% | 3.5 | FUL | FWD |
| Danny Welbeck | 29% | 3.5 | BHA | FWD |
| Hwang Hee-Chan | 28% | 3.6 | WOL | MID |
| Patson Daka | 28% | 3.6 | LEI | FWD |
| Raheem Sterling | 28% | 3.6 | CHE | MID |
| Martin Odegaard | 27% | 3.75 | ARS | MID |
| Joe Aribo | 27% | 3.75 | SOU | MID |
| James Ward-Prowse | 27% | 3.75 | SOU | MID |
| Rodrigo | 27% | 3.75 | SOU | MID |
| Jadon Sancho | 27% | 3.75 | MUN | MID |
| Naby Keita | 25% | 4 | LIV | MID |
| Mohamed Elyounoussi | 24% | 4.2 | SOU | MID |
| Yoane Wissa | 24% | 4.2 | BRE | MID |
| Mason Mount | 24% | 4.2 | CHE | MID |
| Daniel Podence | 23% | 4.33 | WOL | MID |
| Pedro Neto | 23% | 4.33 | WOL | MID |
| Daniel James | 23% | 4.33 | LEE | MID |
| Ivan Perisic | 23% | 4.33 | CHE | DEF |
| Leandro Trossard | 22% | 4.5 | BHA | MID |
| Stuart Armstrong | 22% | 4.5 | SOU | MID |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 22% | 4.5 | TOT | MID |
| Allan Saint-Maximin | 20% | 5 | NEW | MID |
| James Maddison | 20% | 5 | LEI | MID |
| Christian Eriksen | 20% | 5 | MUN | MID |
| Mikkel Damsgaard | 20% | 5 | BRE | MID |
| Wilfried Zaha | 20% | 5 | CRY | MID |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 18% | 5.5 | BRE | FWD |
| Jesse Lingard | 18% | 5.5 | WHU | MID |
| Joao Cancelo | 17% | 6 | MCI | DEF |
| Joelinton | 17% | 6 | NEW | MID |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 17% | 6 | NEW | MID |
| Brenden Aaronson | 17% | 6 | LEE | MID |
| Tomas Soucek | 17% | 6 | WHU | MID |
| Ryan Sessegnon | 17% | 6 | TOT | DEF |
| Virgil Van Dijk | 13% | 7.5 | LIV | DEF |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 13% | 8 | LIV | DEF |
| Ben Chilwell | 12% | 8.5 | CHE | DEF |
| Reece James | 12% | 8.5 | CHE | DEF |
| Matt Doherty | 12% | 8.5 | TOT | DEF |
| Ruben Dias | 11% | 9 | MCI | DEF |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko | 11% | 9 | ARS | DEF |
| Andrew Robertson | 11% | 9.5 | LIV | DEF |
| Josh Dasilva | 10% | 10 | BRE | MID |
| Harry Maguire | 9% | 11 | MUN | DEF |
| Lewis Dunk | 8% | 12 | BHA | DEF |
We enter gameweek 2 flying after listening to the bookmakers and picking Haaland over Kane in our gameweek 1 squad.
“Preseason Flop”, Erling Håland (77%), is once again the centre of debate amongst managers ahead of this weekend. The captaincy choice between him and Salah (58%) seems unmistakable in the bookies’ eyes. In fact, a 77% implied chance to score is almost unheard of (odds: 3/10 fractional/1.3 decimal). Manchester City and Håland looked brilliant in Gameweek 1, with a brace for the Norwegian striker as they ran out 2-0 winners. By contrast, Liverpool looked a bit sluggish against Fulham. Still managing a goal and an assist, we know how consistent Mo Salah is, and the Egyptian can never be considered a terrible captaincy shout.
With the easier fixture and his team in slightly better form, Håland gets the captain’s armband again from us this week, though Salah also included in the lineup for our premium midfield spot.
Salah is joined by his teammate Luis Diaz (42%). The Colombian was very lively in the first half against Fulham and was unlucky not to get a return, hitting the bar after working a good angle for a shot.
Both Riyad Mahrez (52%) and Phil Foden (45%) have slightly better odds of scoring, but the three Manchester City spots are already taken up in our team this week. Both are good options vs newly promoted Bournemouth.
Continuing the South American flair in our midfield is Gabriel Martinelli (36%), who impressed away against Crystal Palace on Friday, registering two big chances and one chance created. He plays at home to Leicester this weekend, who showed their defensive frailty by letting a 2-0 lead slip at home to Brentford in Gameweek 1.
For our forward spot, we’ve gone for Gabriel Jesus (50%) over Darwin Nunez (55%), for budget reasons and the fact we already have three Liverpool players in our lineup, though both are good options.
Jesus looked dangerous in Gameweek 1 and was unlucky not to return, with the two chances he created for his teammates not being capitalised upon. Nunez, by contrast, made a lot of very little and has shown he will be a very clinical striker in this Liverpool set-up.
Aleksandr Mitrovic (42%) is the bookies’ choice of the budget forwards going into Gameweek 2. The Serbian striker scored a brace at home to Liverpool last weekend and comes up against a Wolves team that looked anything but defensively solid against Leeds. With penalties in his locker and being Fulham’s focal point in attack, Mitrovic gets the nod from us this weekend.
The midfield is completed with two £4.5m options which showed some promise in the opening week. First on the bench is Andreas (15%), who played very advanced and looked good in a very tough opening fixture vs Liverpool. His task should be a bit easier this weekend away at Wolves.
The second is Brentford super sub Josh Da Silva (10%), who scored a late equaliser off the bench to break Foxes’ hearts in Gameweek 1.
Check out our collection of the best FPL Tweets for Gameweek 2
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 2:
Manchester City (74%) began the season in typical fashion last week with a relatively comfortable away win against West Ham. Pep Guardiola’s side looked as defensively sound as ever, limiting their hosts to just the one shot on target for the whole game.
Up against the newly promoted Bournemouth this weekend they are far and away the bookies’ favourite for a clean sheet.
Guardiola made a point of praising Kyle Walker after the game and while we all know the risks of trusting Pep, we think it relatively secure that he starts again this week. He joins his City teammate Joao Cancelo, who played more like an attacking midfielder than a left back against West Ham, in our lineup this week.
Clearly undeterred by the concession of two Aleksander Mitrovic goals last weekend, Liverpool (60%) are comfortably the second most likely team to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 2. The Reds conceded just 9 goals and kept 12 clean sheets at home last season. Conversely, Palace failed to score in 4 of 6 away games against the “Big Six” last season.
Alexander-Arnold seems like a no-brainer pick most weeks and this time is no different.
Arsenal (47%) managed a clean sheet away to Palace in Gameweek 1 although in not entirely convincing fashion. The Gunners welcome Leicester City in Gameweek 2, a team they managed to shut out both home and away last season.
The Foxes conceded the joint highest number of goals from set pieces last year (19) whilst Arsenal scored the 3rd most (16) and continued this trend last Friday night, scoring from a corner against Palace. This makes Gabriel a good choice at £5.0m.
Between the sticks for us this week is Aston Villa’s (43%) Emiliano Martinez. After a poor showing against Bournemouth in the opening weekend Villa need a result at home to Everton in Gameweek 2. With the Toffees looking equally dreadful in attack without Calvert-Lewin, the bookies clearly favour Gerrard to get the better of his former England counterpart.
For our 3rd bench spot, we have gone with Nottingham Forest’s (23%) Neco Williams again this week at home to West Ham. Finally, Danny Ward (£4.0m) gets the nod again after proving to be a cheap starter for Leicester.
Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 2
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.