Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 2

Gameweek 2 offer a new record for most likely goalscorer witnessed by the Bookie’s Advantage’s editorial team. In addition, there are intriguing predictions in midfield and relief for those who hold on to a particular Brazilian.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 2:

PlayerGoal probabilityOddsTeamPosition
Erling Haaland77%1.3MCIFWD
Mohamed Salah58%1.73LIVMID
Darwin Nunez55%1.83LIVFWD
Riyad Mahrez52%1.91MCIMID
Gabriel Jesus50%2ARSFWD
Cristiano Ronaldo50%2MUNFWD
Kevin De Bruyne48%2.1MCIMID
Phil Foden45%2.2MCIMID
Roberto Firmino43%2.3LIVFWD
Aleksandar Mitrovic42%2.4FULFWD
Luis Diaz42%2.4LIVMID
Danny Ings40%2.5AVLFWD
Bukayo Saka40%2.5ARSMID
Patrick Bamford40%2.5LEEFWD
Harry Kane38%2.6TOTFWD
Ollie Watkins38%2.63AVLFWD
Che Adams37%2.7SOUFWD
Michail Antonio37%2.7WHUFWD
Philippe Coutinho36%2.75AVLMID
Adam Armstrong36%2.75SOUFWD
Ilkay Gundogan36%2.8MCIMID
Gabriel Martinelli36%2.8ARSMID
Ivan Toney36%2.8BREFWD
Fabio Carvalho36%2.8LIVMID
Cameron Archer35%2.88AVLFWD
Callum Wilson35%2.88NEWFWD
Bruno Fernandes35%2.88MUNMID
Gianluca Scamacca35%2.88WHUFWD
Maxwel Cornet35%2.88WHUMID
Jack Grealish33%3MCIMID
Neal Maupay33%3BHAFWD
Nicolas Pepe33%3ARSMID
Goncalo Guedes32%3.1WOLMID
Jamie Vardy32%3.1LEIFWD
Kai Havertz31%3.2CHEFWD
Armando Broja31%3.25CHEFWD
Bernardo Silva30%3.3MCIMID
Deniz Undav30%3.3BHAFWD
Marcus Rashford30%3.3MUNMID
Harvey Elliott30%3.3LIVMID
Son Heung-Min30%3.35TOTFWD
Rodrigo Muniz29%3.5FULFWD
Danny Welbeck29%3.5BHAFWD
Hwang Hee-Chan28%3.6WOLMID
Patson Daka28%3.6LEIFWD
Raheem Sterling28%3.6CHEMID
Martin Odegaard27%3.75ARSMID
Joe Aribo27%3.75SOUMID
James Ward-Prowse27%3.75SOUMID
Jadon Sancho27%3.75MUNMID
Naby Keita25%4LIVMID
Mohamed Elyounoussi24%4.2SOUMID
Yoane Wissa24%4.2BREMID
Mason Mount24%4.2CHEMID
Daniel Podence23%4.33WOLMID
Pedro Neto23%4.33WOLMID
Daniel James23%4.33LEEMID
Ivan Perisic23%4.33CHEDEF
Leandro Trossard22%4.5BHAMID
Stuart Armstrong22%4.5SOUMID
Dejan Kulusevski22%4.5TOTMID
Allan Saint-Maximin20%5NEWMID
James Maddison20%5LEIMID
Christian Eriksen20%5MUNMID
Mikkel Damsgaard20%5BREMID
Wilfried Zaha20%5CRYMID
Bryan Mbeumo18%5.5BREFWD
Jesse Lingard18%5.5WHUMID
Joao Cancelo17%6MCIDEF
Bruno Guimaraes17%6NEWMID
Brenden Aaronson17%6LEEMID
Tomas Soucek17%6WHUMID
Ryan Sessegnon17%6TOTDEF
Virgil Van Dijk13%7.5LIVDEF
Trent Alexander-Arnold13%8LIVDEF
Ben Chilwell12%8.5CHEDEF
Reece James12%8.5CHEDEF
Matt Doherty12%8.5TOTDEF
Ruben Dias11%9MCIDEF
Oleksandr Zinchenko11%9ARSDEF
Andrew Robertson11%9.5LIVDEF
Josh Dasilva10%10BREMID
Harry Maguire9%11MUNDEF
Lewis Dunk8%12BHADEF

We enter gameweek 2 flying after listening to the bookmakers and picking Haaland over Kane in our gameweek 1 squad.
“Preseason Flop”, Erling Håland (77%), is once again the centre of debate amongst managers ahead of this weekend. The captaincy choice between him and Salah (58%) seems unmistakable in the bookies’ eyes. In fact, a 77% implied chance to score is almost unheard of (odds: 3/10 fractional/1.3 decimal). Manchester City and Håland looked brilliant in Gameweek 1, with a brace for the Norwegian striker as they ran out 2-0 winners. By contrast, Liverpool looked a bit sluggish against Fulham. Still managing a goal and an assist, we know how consistent Mo Salah is, and the Egyptian can never be considered a terrible captaincy shout.
With the easier fixture and his team in slightly better form, Håland gets the captain’s armband again from us this week, though Salah also included in the lineup for our premium midfield spot.

Salah is joined by his teammate Luis Diaz (42%). The Colombian was very lively in the first half against Fulham and was unlucky not to get a return, hitting the bar after working a good angle for a shot.
Both Riyad Mahrez (52%) and Phil Foden (45%) have slightly better odds of scoring, but the three Manchester City spots are already taken up in our team this week. Both are good options vs newly promoted Bournemouth.

Continuing the South American flair in our midfield is Gabriel Martinelli (36%), who impressed away against Crystal Palace on Friday, registering two big chances and one chance created. He plays at home to Leicester this weekend, who showed their defensive frailty by letting a 2-0 lead slip at home to Brentford in Gameweek 1.

For our forward spot, we’ve gone for Gabriel Jesus (50%) over Darwin Nunez (55%), for budget reasons and the fact we already have three Liverpool players in our lineup, though both are good options.
Jesus looked dangerous in Gameweek 1 and was unlucky not to return, with the two chances he created for his teammates not being capitalised upon. Nunez, by contrast, made a lot of very little and has shown he will be a very clinical striker in this Liverpool set-up.

Aleksandr Mitrovic (42%) is the bookies’ choice of the budget forwards going into Gameweek 2. The Serbian striker scored a brace at home to Liverpool last weekend and comes up against a Wolves team that looked anything but defensively solid against Leeds. With penalties in his locker and being Fulham’s focal point in attack, Mitrovic gets the nod from us this weekend.

The midfield is completed with two £4.5m options which showed some promise in the opening week. First on the bench is Andreas (15%), who played very advanced and looked good in a very tough opening fixture vs Liverpool. His task should be a bit easier this weekend away at Wolves.
The second is Brentford super sub Josh Da Silva (10%), who scored a late equaliser off the bench to break Foxes’ hearts in Gameweek 1.

Check out our collection of the best FPL Tweets for Gameweek 2

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Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 2:

Manchester City (74%) began the season in typical fashion last week with a relatively comfortable away win against West Ham. Pep Guardiola’s side looked as defensively sound as ever, limiting their hosts to just the one shot on target for the whole game.
Up against the newly promoted Bournemouth this weekend they are far and away the bookies’ favourite for a clean sheet.
Guardiola made a point of praising Kyle Walker after the game and while we all know the risks of trusting Pep, we think it relatively secure that he starts again this week. He joins his City teammate Joao Cancelo, who played more like an attacking midfielder than a left back against West Ham, in our lineup this week.

Clearly undeterred by the concession of two Aleksander Mitrovic goals last weekend, Liverpool (60%) are comfortably the second most likely team to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 2. The Reds conceded just 9 goals and kept 12 clean sheets at home last season. Conversely, Palace failed to score in 4 of 6 away games against the “Big Six” last season.
Alexander-Arnold seems like a no-brainer pick most weeks and this time is no different.

Arsenal (47%) managed a clean sheet away to Palace in Gameweek 1 although in not entirely convincing fashion. The Gunners welcome Leicester City in Gameweek 2, a team they managed to shut out both home and away last season.
The Foxes conceded the joint highest number of goals from set pieces last year (19) whilst Arsenal scored the 3rd most (16) and continued this trend last Friday night, scoring from a corner against Palace. This makes Gabriel a good choice at £5.0m.

Between the sticks for us this week is Aston Villa’s (43%) Emiliano Martinez. After a poor showing against Bournemouth in the opening weekend Villa need a result at home to Everton in Gameweek 2. With the Toffees looking equally dreadful in attack without Calvert-Lewin, the bookies clearly favour Gerrard to get the better of his former England counterpart.

For our 3rd bench spot, we have gone with Nottingham Forest’s (23%) Neco Williams again this week at home to West Ham. Finally, Danny Ward (£4.0m) gets the nod again after proving to be a cheap starter for Leicester.

Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 2

Bookie's Advantage Dream FPL Team Gameweek 2
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Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.

You can follow him on Twitter here