Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 22

The second double gameweek of the season provides managers with the chance to make big gains in a short period. Tactical transfers and clever captaincy calls are essential.

This week’s Bookies’ Advantage XI is a nice blend of safe template picks and high upside differential calls.

Check out our gameweek 22 captaincy analysis here

Player	Probability	Probability match 2	Combined probability
Marcus Rashford	40%	43%	66%
Wout Weghorst	31%	38%	57%
Bruno Fernandes	31%	34%	55%
Anthony Martial	29%	32%	52%
Erling Haaland	51%		51%
Rodrigo	32%	23%	48%
Patrick Bamford	31%	24%	48%
Antony	25%	30%	47%
Evan Ferguson	44%		44%
Eddie Nketiah	42%		42%
Ivan Toney	40%		40%
Callum Wilson	40%		40%
Danny Welbeck	38%		38%
Darwin Nunez	38%		38%
Wilfred Gnonto	24%	16%	36%
Ollie Watkins	35%		35%
Mohamed Salah	34%		34%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	34%		34%
Harry Kane	34%		34%
Aleksandar Mitrovic	30%		30%
Alexander Isak	30%		30%
Bukayo Saka	30%		30%
Kai Havertz	29%		29%
Gabriel Martinelli	29%		29%
Sam Surridge	29%		29%
Yoane Wissa	29%		29%
Julian Alvarez	28%		28%
Leon Bailey	28%		28%
Brennan Johnson	27%		27%
Cody Gakpo	26%		26%
Patson Daka	24%		24%
Riyad Mahrez	24%		24%
Emiliano Buendia	23%		23%
Raul Jimenez	23%		23%
Martin Odegaard	23%		23%
Mykhaylo Mudryk	23%		23%
Pascal Gross	22%		22%
Matheus Cunha	22%		22%
Harvey Barnes	22%		22%
Kevin De Bruyne	22%		22%
Phil Foden	22%		22%
Son Heung-Min	22%		22%
Daniel Podence	21%		21%
Mason Mount	20%		20%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	20%		20%
Diego Costa	20%		20%
Ilkay Gundogan	20%		20%
Adam Armstrong	20%		20%
Miguel Almiron	19%		19%
Che Adams	19%		19%
Bryan Mbeumo	19%		19%
Dominic Solanke	18%		18%
Kieffer Moore	18%		18%
Odsonne Edouard	18%		18%
James Maddison	17%		17%
Wilfried Zaha	17%		17%
Allan Saint-Maximin	17%		17%
Richarlison	17%		17%
Hee-Chan Hwang	17%		17%
Jarrod Bowen	16%		16%
Brenden Aaronson	10%	7%	16%
Michail Antonio	16%		16%
Joe Willock	15%		15%
Jack Grealish	14%		14%
Bernardo Silva	13%		13%
Said Benrahma	13%		13%
Demarai Gray	12%		12%
Bobby Reid	11%		11%
Dejan Kulusevski	11%		11%
Ivan Perisic	10%		10%
Granit Xhaka	8%		8%
Reece James	8%		8%
Andreas Pereira	8%		8%
Trent Alexander-Arnold	6%		6%

Marcus Rashford (66%) is the name on everyone’s lips. With five goals in his last six games, many consider triple captaining the young Englishman.

Rashford is top for shots in the box, big chances and expected goals (xG) amongst all midfielders over the last six gameweeks, meanwhile his opponents, Leeds United and Crystal Palace, sit 19th and 15th, respectively for expected goals conceded (xGC) in the same time as both sides struggle for form.

Good form, good fixtures and likely very high ownership make Marcus Rashford by far and away the most obvious captaincy choice this weekend.

Erling Haaland (51%) has to settle for second spot in the goal-scoring stakes after he grabbed his fourth hattrick of the season against Wolves last week, bypassing last year’s golden boot tally in a little over half the games.

This weekend he and City travel to Spurs, having put four past them in the second half just two weeks ago. Though Haaland only managed one goal and six points in that game, he registered three big chances.

Spurs continue to run hot and cold and you never know what’s going to happen when these sides meet but still, it’s good to have Haaland in your team anyway, just in case.

Patrick Bamford (48%) also benefits from having a double in Gameweek 22.

Though stats and form aren’t much to go by, his potential is considerable as well as the obvious upside of having two games. 

Nottingham Forest away can be a tough fixture, as is the trip to Man United but in the Bookies we trust and the Leeds striker is worth a punt this week as he should have penalties and Jesse Marsch’s side are capable of scoring against any opposition.

Eddie Nketiah (42%) has burst onto the scene post-World Cup, scoring four goals in five games, including a brace against Man United last time out. In fact, only Haaland has a better xG than Nketiah over the last six gameweeks.

This week he takes on an Everton side who, while under new management, have conceded the majority of their chances through the middle over the last six gameweeks. 

At just £6.7m, Eddie Nketiah is worth a spot in our starting XI this week.

He’s joined by Bukayo Saka (32%) who’s been in great form, with three goals and an assist since the restart.

Though Bruno Fernandes (55%) should take the premium midfield spot, a defensive double up means we already have three United players in our team already so Mohamed Salah (34%) takes that spot instead. He plays Wolves away where he scored recently in the FA Cup and with a few players back, Liverpool could look a different side. A tough one to hold this week but the Bookies suggest if you can hold on to the frustrating Liverpool winger this week, you should.

Our bench this week is made up of Yoanne Wissa (29%) and Leon Bailey (28%), two cheap midfielders with high upside.

Team	CS Probability	CS Probability game 2	Combined probability
Man Utd	53%	46%	75%
Brighton	54%		54%
Arsenal	53%		53%
Newcastle	51%		51%
Chelsea	47%		47%
Brentford	42%		42%
Leeds	29%	14%	39%
Liverpool	38%		38%
Aston Villa	38%		38%
Man City	36%		36%
Nottingham Forest	31%		31%
Leicester	23%		23%
Southampton	23%		23%
Wolves	21%		21%
West Ham	20%		20%
Fulham	19%		19%
Tottenham	17%		17%
Everton	16%		16%
Crystal Palace	15%		15%
Bournemouth	13%		13%

Unsurprisingly, Manchester United top the poll this week with a whopping 75% chance they keep a clean sheet in one of their two games in the double.

Their opponents this week have struggled away from home, especially in an attacking sense. Crystal Palace are bottom for xG away from home (4.97) and bottom for goals from open play with just one goal!

Leeds, meanwhile, have done better but are still just around mid-table for both open play goals and xG away from home this season.

A defensive double-up seems the way to go and we’ve chosen Luke Shaw who returned from illness in midweek as well as David De Gea who on his day is capable of big hauls between the sticks.

Brighton (54%) are the Bookies’ second favourite for a clean sheet this weekend despite a lack of much defensive form with just two clean sheets since De Zerbi took over back in Gameweek 12.

Though it may have something to do with their opposition this week as they host a Bournemouth side short on goals with talisman Dominic Solanke missing. The Cherries have scored just one goal in five matches since returning from the World Cup break as they slip into the relegation zone. 

Pervis Estupiñán seems the obvious choice here. Two assists in GW21 show his obvious attacking potential and at just £4.6m, the Ecuadorian seems a no brainer.

Arsenal (53%) lead the league for clean sheets kept on the road so far this season. They’ll be hoping to add to that record when they travel to Goodison Park this weekend to take on Everton under the brand new management of Sean Dyche. 

Stats go out the window slightly now with Lampard gone but old habits do die hard and the Toffees sit 16th for expected goals in home games thus far in the league while Arsenal sit second for xG conceded with 7.34 in 10 away games.

Gabriel Magalhaes sits top for xG amongst all defenders and remains Arsenal’s most nailed and dangerous defensive asset. Meanwhile, Everton sit bottom for headed attempts conceded. 

Newcastle United (51%) are the de facto best defence in the league so far this season, with the least amount of goals conceded (11) and the highest number of clean sheets (12).

They play West Ham in Gameweek 22 who have been really poor in attack of late in a run that’s seen them slide to 16th in the table. West Ham have just three goals away from home this season and as they travel to the fortress that is St. James’ Park this weekend, only one outcome looks likely.

Kieran Trippier is the obvious choice as the right back continues to rack up clean sheets and save points. 

On our bench this week is Danny Ward (23%) who offers good cover should it be needed as well as Tyrone Mings (38%) who takes on Leicester at home in Gameweek 22.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here