Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 23

A double gameweek for the top two makes decisions somewhat obvious heading into Gameweek 23. However, there is still space for some differentials.
This week sees the return of a much-maligned Serbian in attack, as well as an FPL legend in our defence.

Check out our gameweek 23 captaincy analysis here

Goalscorer odds gameweek 23

PlayerProbabilityProbability match 2Combined probability
Erling Haaland57%39%74%
Eddie Nketiah42%32%60%
Riyad Mahrez38%26%54%
Julian Alvarez35%25%51%
Aleksandar Mitrovic47%47%
Leandro Trossard30%22%46%
Bukayo Saka30%22%45%
Mohamed Salah44%44%
Gabriel Martinelli29%21%44%
Harry Kane43%43%
Darwin Nunez43%43%
Phil Foden27%20%41%
Kevin De Bruyne27%17%40%
Marcus Rashford38%38%
Ilkay Gundogan25%16%37%
Callum Wilson37%37%
Martin Odegaard24%14%35%
Alexander Isak33%33%
Wout Weghorst33%33%
Son Heung-Min30%30%
Sasa Kalajdzic30%30%
Bruno Fernandes30%30%
Patrick Bamford29%29%
Kelechi Iheanacho29%29%
Anthony Martial29%29%
Evan Ferguson28%28%
Odsonne Edouard28%28%
Jack Grealish18%12%28%
Jamie Vardy27%27%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin26%26%
Matheus Cunha26%26%
Bernardo Silva17%11%26%
Kai Havertz26%26%
Cody Gakpo25%25%
Gianluca Scamacca25%25%
Danny Welbeck25%25%
Joao Felix25%25%
Ivan Toney24%24%
Adam Armstrong24%24%
Raul Jimenez24%24%
Che Adams24%24%
Danny Ings24%24%
Raheem Sterling23%23%
James Maddison23%23%
Jadon Sancho23%23%
Sam Surridge23%23%
Miguel Almiron22%22%
Daniel Podence22%22%
Fabio Carvalho21%21%
Neal Maupay21%21%
Bobby Reid21%21%
Michail Antonio21%21%
Diego Costa21%21%
Brennan Johnson20%20%
Dominic Solanke20%20%
Kieffer Moore20%20%
Harvey Barnes20%20%
Wilfred Gnonto19%19%
Allan Saint-Maximin19%19%
Hee-Chan Hwang19%19%
Joe Willock19%19%
Yoane Wissa18%18%
Jarrod Bowen18%18%
Said Benrahma18%18%
Mason Mount16%16%
Mykhaylo Mudryk16%16%
Granit Xhaka9%6%15%
Demarai Gray14%14%
Dejan Kulusevski14%14%
Pascal Gross13%13%
Andreas Pereira13%13%
Ivan Perisic13%13%
Bryan Mbeumo13%13%
Brenden Aaronson8%8%
Reece James7%7%
Trent Alexander-Arnold7%7%
Goalscorer odds gameweek 23

€125 first deposit bonus

Odds from Betsson. They currently offer up to €125 in first deposit bonus. Claim your offer here. 18+, T&Cs apply.


Erling Haaland (74%) returns to the top of the goal-scoring odds, having been briefly replaced last gameweek. And with good reason, as the Man City striker blanked again, making it now three blanks in his last five games (though there was a hat trick in there somewhere too.)
Gameweek 23 sees him go up against an Aston Villa side who just conceded four to Leicester as well as an Arsenal team whose high line should provide him with plenty of space to run in behind.
A double gameweek for the most prolific striker in the league is an obvious choice for our captain this gameweek.

Eddie Nketiah (60%) struggled against a resolute Everton backline, however, the Bookies fancy him to jump straight back on the horse this gameweek as he also benefits from a double gameweek.
Brentford tend to concede the majority of their chances through the centre, and this is especially true of away games, keeping just three clean sheets on the road so far this season.
Again Man City defending with a high line may provide the pacey striker with the opportunity to run in behind.
Bukayo Saka (46%) also makes our team. With eight goals and seven assists, he is the Gunners top goal contributor this season.

Aleksander Mitrovic (47%) returns to the Bookies Advantage XI after a poor period of form which has seen him blank in his last three games.
The Serbian striker still ranks well amongst forwards for shots in the box, big chances and expected goals (xG) in the last six gameweeks but has been a touch unlucky not to score more points.
This week he takes on a Nottingham Forest side at home, who are 15th for expected goals conceded (xGC) away from home in the league this season.

Since we already have a Man City & Arsenal triple-up, Mohamed Salah (44%) makes our team this week. The former golden boot winner is now without a goal in five but with decent underlying numbers like 57 penalty area touches (3rd) and 2.85 expected goal involvement (xGI) he may count himself a little unlucky.
Though Everton promises to be a tough test, Salah has a really good record in this fixture and with certain key players returning from injury Salah may be worth a punt this week.

Marcus Rashford (38%) continued his good form in Gameweek 22 to triple captainers delight as he made it nine returns in eight games, blanking just once in that run.
Now he takes on Leeds United again, this time away at Elland Road, but this in no way deters us.
Rashford has simply become a set and forget option in our side, as he should be in yours.

On our bench in attack this week is Andreas Pereira (13%) as well as Josh Dasilva, now just £4.1m, making him a handy cheap bench fodder.

Clean sheet odds gameweek 23

TeamCS ProbabilityCS Probability game 2Combined probability
Man City55%31%69%
Man Utd35%35%
Aston Villa30%30%
West Ham29%29%
Crystal Palace26%26%
Nottingham Forest23%23%
Clean sheet probability gameweek 23

€125 first deposit bonus

Odds from Betsson. They currently offer up to €125 in first deposit bonus. Claim your offer here. 18+, T&Cs apply.


Manchester City (69%) have the best odds of keeping a clean sheet in at least one of their two games this gameweek despite keeping only the one in their last four and just two in their last nine!
The odds skew heavily towards the first of their two games as they take on Aston Villa at home who sit 14th for xG away from home in the four away games they’ve played since Unai Emery took over. Arsenal away makes up the second part of their double in what could be a cagey affair with Arsenal scoring just one goal in their last five home meetings with Guardiola’s side in the Premier League.
A defensive double-up is on the cards here as Ederson & Manuel Akanji seemed the most nailed in that back line.

Arsenal (65%) are up next as the other team with a double this gameweek. The Gunners suffered a shock defeat last weekend and will be eager to put that to rights as they have two home games in Gameweek 23.
Again, they rely more on the first fixture against Brentford for a clean sheet. The Bees goal scoring form on the road this year has been subpar, as they sit 15th for xG in away games this season. Arsenal, by contrast, sit second for xGC in all home games.
Gabriel Magalhaes takes his spot again in our team this week. The big man was the one bright spark from a poor team performance last weekend and is always a threat from corners and set pieces.

Newcastle United (52%) rank highest of the single gameweek teams according to the Bookies. The Magpies’ run of six clean sheets ended last week as they conceded to West Ham.
This week they take on Bournemouth away, still without talismanic striker Dominic Solanke, and with just one goal since the World Cup.
Kieran Trippier blanked for just the fourth time this season in Gameweek 22, but no need to panic. He’s an easy inclusion in our starting XI this week.

Amazingly, the Bookies rank Liverpool (48%) second most likely of all single gameweek teams to keep a clean sheet this gameweek despite just one clean sheet in their last ten games.
They host Everton this gameweek, no doubt buoyed by their impressive win over Arsenal in Gameweek 22. The Toffees are bottom of the league for xG away from home so far this season, but those stats are a bit unreliable since Lampard’s sacking and Sean Dyche taking over.
The forgotten FPL hero, Trent Alexander-Arnold, seems a decent differential punt. The Liverpool man is second only to Trippier in successful crosses (11), big chances created (5) and xGI (1.85) in games played since the World Cup.

On our bench in defence this week is Fraser Forster at Spurs (34%) now with Hugo Lloris out for an extended period, as well as Max Kilman of Wolves (36%) who play Southampton this weekend.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here