Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 24

After the madness of the double gameweeks, we return to normality this week, and with kind fixtures, there is little room for surprises.
The Bookies Advantage XI is quite template in attack this week, but we have still managed to sneak in a few cheeky differentials at the back.

Check out our expert captain analysis ahead of gameweek 24

Player	Probability	Odds	Team	Position
Erling Haaland	53%	1.87	MCI	FWD
Harry Kane	44%	2.28	TOT	FWD
Marcus Rashford	43%	2.35	MUN	MID
Callum Wilson	40%	2.5	NEW	FWD
Ivan Toney	39%	2.55	BRE	FWD
Eddie Nketiah	38%	2.6	ARS	FWD
Riyad Mahrez	38%	2.65	MCI	MID
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	37%	2.7	EVE	FWD
Julian Alvarez	36%	2.75	MCI	FWD
Evan Ferguson	35%	2.85	BHA	FWD
Wout Weghorst	34%	2.9	MUN	FWD
Matheus Cunha	34%	2.9	WOL	FWD
Aleksandar Mitrovic	34%	2.95	FUL	FWD
Mohamed Salah	34%	2.95	LIV	MID
Alexander Isak	34%	2.95	NEW	FWD
Kai Havertz	33%	3.05	CHE	FWD
Son Heung-Min	33%	3.05	TOT	MID
Joao Felix	32%	3.1	CHE	FWD
Raul Jimenez	32%	3.15	WOL	FWD
Bruno Fernandes	31%	3.2	MUN	MID
Anthony Martial	31%	3.25	MUN	FWD
Patrick Bamford	30%	3.3	LEE	FWD
Darwin Nunez	30%	3.3	LIV	FWD
Deniz Undav	30%	3.35	BHA	FWD
Mitoma	30%	3.35	BHA	MID
Diego Costa	30%	3.35	WOL	FWD
Raheem Sterling	29%	3.4	CHE	MID
Daniel Podence	29%	3.4	WOL	MID
Neal Maupay	28%	3.55	EVE	FWD
Phil Foden	28%	3.6	MCI	MID
Antony	27%	3.65	MUN	MID
Kevin De Bruyne	26%	3.8	MCI	MID
Yoane Wissa	26%	3.85	BRE	MID
Kelechi Iheanacho	25%	3.95	LEI	FWD
Bukayo Saka	25%	4	ARS	MID
Carlos Vinicius	25%	4	FUL	FWD
Richarlison	25%	4	TOT	FWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta	24%	4.1	CRY	FWD
Ilkay Gundogan	24%	4.1	MCI	MID
Jadon Sancho	24%	4.1	MUN	MID
Danny Ings	24%	4.2	WHU	FWD
Mykhaylo Mudryk	23%	4.3	CHE	MID
Demarai Gray	23%	4.35	EVE	MID
Martin Odegaard	22%	4.5	ARS	MID
Ollie Watkins	22%	4.5	AVL	FWD
Mason Mount	22%	4.5	CHE	MID
Odsonne Edouard	22%	4.5	CRY	FWD
Wilfried Zaha	22%	4.5	CRY	MID
Jamie Vardy	22%	4.5	LEI	FWD
Miguel Almiron	22%	4.5	NEW	MID
Michail Antonio	22%	4.5	WHU	FWD
Leandro Trossard	22%	4.6	ARS	MID
Gabriel Martinelli	22%	4.6	ARS	MID
Leon Bailey	21%	4.7	AVL	MID
Luis Sinisterra	21%	4.8	LEE	MID
James Maddison	20%	4.9	LEI	MID
Jarrod Bowen	20%	4.9	WHU	MID
Wilfred Gnonto	19%	5.3	LEE	MID
Pascal Gross	18%	5.6	BHA	MID
Allan Saint-Maximin	18%	5.6	NEW	MID
Said Benrahma	18%	5.6	WHU	MID
Jack Grealish	17%	5.75	MCI	MID
Cody Gakpo	17%	5.8	LIV	MID
Bryan Mbeumo	17%	6	BRE	FWD
Harvey Barnes	17%	6	LEI	MID
Joe Willock	16%	6.1	NEW	MID
Anthony Gordon	16%	6.1	NEW	MID
Bernardo Silva	15%	6.5	MCI	MID
Brennan Johnson	15%	6.5	NFO	FWD
Dejan Kulusevski	15%	6.5	TOT	MID
Emiliano Buendia	15%	6.75	AVL	MID
Adam Armstrong	15%	6.75	SOU	FWD
Philippe Coutinho	14%	7	AVL	MID
Bobby Reid	14%	7	FUL	MID
Che Adams	14%	7	SOU	FWD
Ivan Perisic	14%	7	TOT	DEF
Harry Wilson	12%	8.5	FUL	MID
Reece James	10%	10	CHE	DEF
Brenden Aaronson	10%	10.5	LEE	MID
Granit Xhaka	8%	13	ARS	MID
Trent Alexander-Arnold	5%	21	LIV	DEF

Our captain this week is Erling Haaland (53%), who remains top of the mountain for goal-scoring odds going into Gameweek 24 as he takes on a resurgent Nottingham Forest side, who he bagged four goals against earlier in the season.
The Norwegian boasts the highest expected goals (xG) of all players since returning from the World Cup with 6.28 despite questions of his form in recent weeks.
Forest, meanwhile, have improved of late, though fixtures have been kind. It seems very unlikely this good form will do any good when Haaland and Co. come to town.
He is joined by Riyad Mahrez (38%) who hauled big in his DGW23 with a goal and assist. Forest tend to concede the majority of their chances down their left and with an inform Mahrez, another haul is never far away.

Harry Kane (44%) is second in the standings for goalscorer odds this weekend as Spurs look to recover from the battering they received at Leicester in Gameweek 23.
They play a West Ham side who continue to struggle along having kept just one clean sheet in their last seven.
Kane sits second amongst forwards for goals scored since the World Cup (5) and his record against the Hammers is impressive, with the Englishman netting 11 goals and four assists in his 19 games played against them. He makes an easy inclusion in our lineup this week.

Another Englishman in great form, Marcus Rashford (43%) has been a man on fire since the World Cup and shows little signs of stopping. The Manchester United winger has now scored in each of his last seven games in the league and seems to have added heading ability to his game now too.
This week he plays against a Leicester side who are 19th for goals conceded since the World Cup and look a shambles in defence. He’s a lock in our team every week as he should be in yours.

With Callum Wilson (40%) yellow-flagged, we’ve opted for Ivan Toney (39%) instead. The Bees’ striker is on quite the run of his own with four goals in his last seven games as he continues to impress fans and pundits alike.
This week he hosts Crystal Palace who have conceded 12 goals in their last eight games and look poor on the road this season.

Mo Salah (34%) justified his inclusion in our team last week with a somewhat fortunate goal against rivals Everton and he takes his place once again to cement our “three-mium” set up. The Liverpool winger is 3rd amongst midfielders for xG in the last seven games and while Newcastle away looks a tough fixture on paper, the Magpies defence has been less than stellar of late and could provide Salah with the opening he needs to punish them.

On our bench this week in attack are Leon Bailey (21%) and Josh Dasilva (£4.1m) who makes for a very good cheap bench fodder.

Team	CS Probability	Odds
Chelsea	57%	1.76
Man City	54%	1.84
Wolves	49%	2.05
Brentford	44%	2.25
Arsenal	43%	2.3
Brighton	41%	2.43
Man Utd	40%	2.48
Tottenham	39%	2.55
Everton	33%	3.05
Leeds	29%	3.4
Newcastle	29%	3.4
Liverpool	27%	3.65
Crystal Palace	24%	4.1
Aston Villa	22%	4.6
West Ham	21%	4.8
Bournemouth	20%	4.9
Fulham	18%	5.6
Southampton	17%	6
Leicester	15%	6.75
Nottingham Forest	13%	8

Chelsea (57%) are number one when it comes to clean sheet odds heading into Gameweek 24. The Blues look more solid defensively of late, having conceded just one goal in their last four games.
This weekend, they take on a managerless Southampton who have failed to score in three of their last six games in the Premier League.
This looks a banker of a clean sheet so we favour a double up here. Kepa Arrizabalaga is number one amongst goalkeepers for FPL points since the World Cup break and has two double digit hauls in his last four games.
He is joined by Reece James, ultimate FPL troll, who has the ability to haul big in any game, especially in games like this where Chelsea should dominate the ball.

Manchester City (54%) continue to confound the bookies, who favour them for a clean sheet most weeks as they continue to underwhelm. Two clean sheets in their last 11 games has left many managers frustrated but patience may be key at a time like this.
This weekend they travel to Nottingham Forest, who boast the one thing Man City do not have, a European Cup.
It was 6-0 in the reverse fixture, with Forest having just one shot on target and it’s hard not to see a clean sheet for City this time around.
Rico Lewis is expected to get the nod having not played in their last two games and Pep favouring him in match ups where they expect high possession.

Wolves (49%) are another side who have turned their fortunes around since the World Cup, keeping two clean sheets in their last four and looking a much better side under Lopetegui.
They play a struggling Bournemouth side who have scored just two goals in their last seven games as they slide ever closer towards relegation.
Man Kilman looks a steal at just £4.3m as the most nailed man in this Wolves defence. The big man is well able to get on the end of a corner as well which provides extra points potential.

Brentford (44%) are second only to Newcastle in terms of goals conceded since GW17 as they continued their incredible undefeated run with a 1-1 draw away to Arsenal last weekend.
Gameweek 24 presents the slightly easier task of a home game against Crystal Palace, still without talisman Wilfried Zaha. The Eagles have failed to score in four of their last seven games since the World Cup and have been especially bad away from home.
The Bees by contrast, have kept two clean sheets in their last two home games and usually perform much better at home.
Ben Mee is a lock in their side and with three goals and one assist on the season, his high points potential is too hard to ignore.

Fraser Forster (£3.9m) provides good cover in goal despite a horror show last week & James Tarkowski (£4.2m) provides decent cover as he takes on managerless Leeds at home this week.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here