Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 24

After the madness of the double gameweeks, we return to normality this week, and with kind fixtures, there is little room for surprises.
The Bookies Advantage XI is quite template in attack this week, but we have still managed to sneak in a few cheeky differentials at the back.

Check out our expert captain analysis ahead of gameweek 24

Goalscorer odds Gameweek 24

PlayerProbabilityOddsTeamPosition
Erling Haaland53%1.87MCIFWD
Harry Kane44%2.28TOTFWD
Marcus Rashford43%2.35MUNMID
Callum Wilson40%2.5NEWFWD
Ivan Toney39%2.55BREFWD
Eddie Nketiah38%2.6ARSFWD
Riyad Mahrez38%2.65MCIMID
Dominic Calvert-Lewin37%2.7EVEFWD
Julian Alvarez36%2.75MCIFWD
Evan Ferguson35%2.85BHAFWD
Wout Weghorst34%2.9MUNFWD
Matheus Cunha34%2.9WOLFWD
Aleksandar Mitrovic34%2.95FULFWD
Mohamed Salah34%2.95LIVMID
Alexander Isak34%2.95NEWFWD
Kai Havertz33%3.05CHEFWD
Son Heung-Min33%3.05TOTMID
Joao Felix32%3.1CHEFWD
Raul Jimenez32%3.15WOLFWD
Bruno Fernandes31%3.2MUNMID
Anthony Martial31%3.25MUNFWD
Patrick Bamford30%3.3LEEFWD
Darwin Nunez30%3.3LIVFWD
Deniz Undav30%3.35BHAFWD
Mitoma30%3.35BHAMID
Diego Costa30%3.35WOLFWD
Raheem Sterling29%3.4CHEMID
Daniel Podence29%3.4WOLMID
Neal Maupay28%3.55EVEFWD
Phil Foden28%3.6MCIMID
Antony27%3.65MUNMID
Kevin De Bruyne26%3.8MCIMID
Yoane Wissa26%3.85BREMID
Kelechi Iheanacho25%3.95LEIFWD
Bukayo Saka25%4ARSMID
Carlos Vinicius25%4FULFWD
Richarlison25%4TOTFWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta24%4.1CRYFWD
Ilkay Gundogan24%4.1MCIMID
Jadon Sancho24%4.1MUNMID
Danny Ings24%4.2WHUFWD
Mykhaylo Mudryk23%4.3CHEMID
Demarai Gray23%4.35EVEMID
Martin Odegaard22%4.5ARSMID
Ollie Watkins22%4.5AVLFWD
Mason Mount22%4.5CHEMID
Odsonne Edouard22%4.5CRYFWD
Wilfried Zaha22%4.5CRYMID
Jamie Vardy22%4.5LEIFWD
Miguel Almiron22%4.5NEWMID
Michail Antonio22%4.5WHUFWD
Leandro Trossard22%4.6ARSMID
Gabriel Martinelli22%4.6ARSMID
Leon Bailey21%4.7AVLMID
Luis Sinisterra21%4.8LEEMID
James Maddison20%4.9LEIMID
Jarrod Bowen20%4.9WHUMID
Wilfred Gnonto19%5.3LEEMID
Pascal Gross18%5.6BHAMID
Allan Saint-Maximin18%5.6NEWMID
Said Benrahma18%5.6WHUMID
Jack Grealish17%5.75MCIMID
Cody Gakpo17%5.8LIVMID
Bryan Mbeumo17%6BREFWD
Harvey Barnes17%6LEIMID
Joe Willock16%6.1NEWMID
Anthony Gordon16%6.1NEWMID
Bernardo Silva15%6.5MCIMID
Brennan Johnson15%6.5NFOFWD
Dejan Kulusevski15%6.5TOTMID
Emiliano Buendia15%6.75AVLMID
Adam Armstrong15%6.75SOUFWD
Philippe Coutinho14%7AVLMID
Bobby Reid14%7FULMID
Che Adams14%7SOUFWD
Ivan Perisic14%7TOTDEF
Harry Wilson12%8.5FULMID
Reece James10%10CHEDEF
Brenden Aaronson10%10.5LEEMID
Granit Xhaka8%13ARSMID
Trent Alexander-Arnold5%21LIVDEF
Goalscorer odds gameweek 24

Our captain this week is Erling Haaland (53%), who remains top of the mountain for goal-scoring odds going into Gameweek 24 as he takes on a resurgent Nottingham Forest side, who he bagged four goals against earlier in the season.
The Norwegian boasts the highest expected goals (xG) of all players since returning from the World Cup with 6.28 despite questions of his form in recent weeks.
Forest, meanwhile, have improved of late, though fixtures have been kind. It seems very unlikely this good form will do any good when Haaland and Co. come to town.
He is joined by Riyad Mahrez (38%) who hauled big in his DGW23 with a goal and assist. Forest tend to concede the majority of their chances down their left and with an inform Mahrez, another haul is never far away.

Harry Kane (44%) is second in the standings for goalscorer odds this weekend as Spurs look to recover from the battering they received at Leicester in Gameweek 23.
They play a West Ham side who continue to struggle along having kept just one clean sheet in their last seven.
Kane sits second amongst forwards for goals scored since the World Cup (5) and his record against the Hammers is impressive, with the Englishman netting 11 goals and four assists in his 19 games played against them. He makes an easy inclusion in our lineup this week.

Another Englishman in great form, Marcus Rashford (43%) has been a man on fire since the World Cup and shows little signs of stopping. The Manchester United winger has now scored in each of his last seven games in the league and seems to have added heading ability to his game now too.
This week he plays against a Leicester side who are 19th for goals conceded since the World Cup and look a shambles in defence. He’s a lock in our team every week as he should be in yours.

With Callum Wilson (40%) yellow-flagged, we’ve opted for Ivan Toney (39%) instead. The Bees’ striker is on quite the run of his own with four goals in his last seven games as he continues to impress fans and pundits alike.
This week he hosts Crystal Palace who have conceded 12 goals in their last eight games and look poor on the road this season.

Mo Salah (34%) justified his inclusion in our team last week with a somewhat fortunate goal against rivals Everton and he takes his place once again to cement our “three-mium” set up. The Liverpool winger is 3rd amongst midfielders for xG in the last seven games and while Newcastle away looks a tough fixture on paper, the Magpies defence has been less than stellar of late and could provide Salah with the opening he needs to punish them.

On our bench this week in attack are Leon Bailey (21%) and Josh Dasilva (£4.1m) who makes for a very good cheap bench fodder.

Clean sheet odds gameweek 24

TeamCS ProbabilityOdds
Chelsea57%1.76
Man City54%1.84
Wolves49%2.05
Brentford44%2.25
Arsenal43%2.3
Brighton41%2.43
Man Utd40%2.48
Tottenham39%2.55
Everton33%3.05
Leeds29%3.4
Newcastle29%3.4
Liverpool27%3.65
Crystal Palace24%4.1
Aston Villa22%4.6
West Ham21%4.8
Bournemouth20%4.9
Fulham18%5.6
Southampton17%6
Leicester15%6.75
Nottingham Forest13%8
Clean sheet odds gameweek 24

Chelsea (57%) are number one when it comes to clean sheet odds heading into Gameweek 24. The Blues look more solid defensively of late, having conceded just one goal in their last four games.
This weekend, they take on a managerless Southampton who have failed to score in three of their last six games in the Premier League.
This looks a banker of a clean sheet so we favour a double up here. Kepa Arrizabalaga is number one amongst goalkeepers for FPL points since the World Cup break and has two double digit hauls in his last four games.
He is joined by Reece James, ultimate FPL troll, who has the ability to haul big in any game, especially in games like this where Chelsea should dominate the ball.

Manchester City (54%) continue to confound the bookies, who favour them for a clean sheet most weeks as they continue to underwhelm. Two clean sheets in their last 11 games has left many managers frustrated but patience may be key at a time like this.
This weekend they travel to Nottingham Forest, who boast the one thing Man City do not have, a European Cup.
It was 6-0 in the reverse fixture, with Forest having just one shot on target and it’s hard not to see a clean sheet for City this time around.
Rico Lewis is expected to get the nod having not played in their last two games and Pep favouring him in match ups where they expect high possession.

Wolves (49%) are another side who have turned their fortunes around since the World Cup, keeping two clean sheets in their last four and looking a much better side under Lopetegui.
They play a struggling Bournemouth side who have scored just two goals in their last seven games as they slide ever closer towards relegation.
Man Kilman looks a steal at just £4.3m as the most nailed man in this Wolves defence. The big man is well able to get on the end of a corner as well which provides extra points potential.

Brentford (44%) are second only to Newcastle in terms of goals conceded since GW17 as they continued their incredible undefeated run with a 1-1 draw away to Arsenal last weekend.
Gameweek 24 presents the slightly easier task of a home game against Crystal Palace, still without talisman Wilfried Zaha. The Eagles have failed to score in four of their last seven games since the World Cup and have been especially bad away from home.
The Bees by contrast, have kept two clean sheets in their last two home games and usually perform much better at home.
Ben Mee is a lock in their side and with three goals and one assist on the season, his high points potential is too hard to ignore.

Fraser Forster (£3.9m) provides good cover in goal despite a horror show last week & James Tarkowski (£4.2m) provides decent cover as he takes on managerless Leeds at home this week.


Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here