Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 25

Arsenal and Liverpool dominate the Bookies’ Advantage XI going into Double Gameweek 25 as both sides benefit from favourable doubles.
A few obvious candidates are complemented by some differentials, while the captaincy conundrum that looks tough to call on paper is settled quite definitively in the bookies’ eyes.

Goalscorer odds gameweek 25

PlayerProbabilityProbability match 2Combined probability
Mohamed Salah44%49%71%
Eddie Nketiah40%45%67%
Darwin Nunez36%43%64%
Diego Jota33%34%56%
Erling Haaland55%55%
Bukayo Saka28%32%51%
Roberto Firmino25%28%46%
Leandro Trossard25%27%45%
Cody Gakpo25%27%45%
Aleksandar Mitrovic45%45%
Martin Odegaard22%27%43%
Gabriel Martinelli23%26%43%
Matheus Cunha25%19%39%
Harry Kane38%38%
Raul Jimenez23%17%36%
Gabriel Jesus36%36%
Diego Costa21%16%34%
Danny Ings33%33%
Carlos Vinicius33%33%
Riyad Mahrez33%33%
Julian Alvarez33%33%
Daniel Podence20%15%33%
Patrick Bamford32%32%
Michail Antonio29%29%
Ollie Watkins29%29%
Jarrod Bowen29%29%
Neal Maupay28%28%
Son Heung-Min28%28%
Wilfried Zaha26%26%
Kevin De Bruyne26%26%
Joao Felix25%25%
Kai Havertz24%24%
Jean-Philippe Mateta24%24%
Wilfred Gnonto24%24%
Ilkay Gundogan24%24%
Phil Foden24%24%
Kelechi Iheanacho24%24%
Said Benrahma23%23%
Raheem Sterling22%22%
Odsonne Edouard22%22%
Jamie Vardy21%21%
Leon Bailey21%21%
James Maddison21%21%
Demarai Gray20%20%
Bobby Reid20%20%
Adam Armstrong20%20%
Che Adams20%20%
Brennan Johnson19%19%
Emiliano Buendia18%18%
Dominic Solanke17%17%
Harvey Barnes17%17%
Chris Wood17%17%
Jack Grealish16%16%
Bernardo Silva16%16%
Mason Mount15%15%
Andreas Pereira15%15%
Harry Wilson15%15%
Philippe Coutinho14%14%
Trent Alexander-Arnold7%7%13%
Mykhaylo Mudryk13%13%
Dejan Kulusevski13%13%
Ivan Perisic11%11%
Brenden Aaronson10%10%
Reece James7%7%
Goalscorer odds Gameweek 25

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Salah (71%) vs Saka (51%) seems to be the captaincy debate this week, with both players being the top scorers for their respective clubs going into their double gameweek.
The Bookies see it more clearly, however, with Salah emerging as the clear favourite. Though Saka has outperformed Salah in terms of goals and points, their underlying numbers have been neck and neck in terms of shots in the box (21 vs 17), big chances (3 vs 4) and non-penalty expected goals involvement (4.18 vs 4.51).
Their opponents measure similarly in terms of defence, with both Leicester and Everton conceding 41 big chances combined, compared to Crystal Palace and Wolves conceding 37 in the last eight gameweeks.
All this goes to say that Mo Salah takes our captain’s armband this week while, due to a defensive double-up and Nketiah’s inclusion, Saka doesn’t even make our squad ahead of the double.

Salah is joined by Liverpool teammate Darwin Nunez (64%) who has two goals in his last two games in all competitions. Nunez is the biggest under performer of his expected goals (xG) since the World Cup and while he can be frustrating to own at times his points potential this double gameweek is huge.

Eddie Nketiah (57%) is the second biggest under performer of his xG since the World Cup scoring four goals from an xG of 6.60. The Arsenal youngster has been a tad unlucky in recent games but the Bookies back him to do well up against Leicester and Everton who have conceded 29 goals combined in their eight games since the restart.

Erling Haaland (55%) has to settle for fourth in the pecking order for goal scorer’s odds this gameweek when he and City travel to Bournemouth after being held to a disappointing draw last week at Nottingham Forest.
Haaland missed two big chances and hit the woodwork in what was a frustrating afternoon. No need to panic though, the big Norwegian should be fired up to put things right this weekend against a struggling Bournemouth side and even with his single game week he’s more likely to score than to blank.
He’s joined by team mate, Riyad Mahrez (33%) who was benched for the entirety of Gameweek 24. With the poor results, surely he won’t be benched again, right? RIGHT?

Daniel Podence (33%) makes a surprise inclusion in our lineup for his double this gameweek as he takes on Fulham & Liverpool both away from home.
The Portuguese has three goals in seven appearances since the World Cup and seems Wolves most assured finisher.
Meanwhile both Liverpool and Fulham’s defence have been less than stellar, giving up 19 and 27 big chances respectively in the last eight gameweeks.
Admittedly this is a pure double gameweek upside punt but at just £5.3m and 0.8% ownership could be worth the risk.

On the bench this week is Said Benrahma (23%) who takes on Nottingham Forest at home and Leon Bailey (21%) who plays Everton away.

Take a look at our captaincy analysis of the main gameweek 25 contenders here

Clean sheet odds gameweek 25

TeamCS ProbabilityCS Probability game 2Combined probability
Man City53%53%
West Ham47%47%
Aston Villa32%32%
Nottingham Forest23%23%
Crystal Palace19%19%
Man UtdN/A
Clean Sheet odds gameweek 25

Arsenal top the ranks for clean sheet odds this week with a whopping 74% chance of a clean sheet in at least one of their two games against Leicester (A) and Everton (H). The Gunners have now failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches, a trend they will want to halt as soon as possible.
Their opponents this week, while both on an upturn in form generally, have uninspiring attacking numbers. Leicester sit 10th for xG since the World Cup while Everton have scored just one goal from open play in their last eight games.
A defensive double up of Gabriel & Zinchenko starts off our back line as Leicester are always vulnerable from set-pieces and Zinchenko boasts the highest xGI of any Arsenal defender.

Liverpool (69%) are up next and seem to have turned their defensive form around in recent weeks (Real Madrid aside), keeping a clean sheet in their last two games against Everton (H) & Newcastle (A).
Their opponents this week, Crystal Palace and Wolves have scored just four open play goals between them since the World Cup and sit 18th and 14th respectively for open play xG in that time as well.
Trent Alexander-Arnold is second only to Trippier for chances created (15), big chances created (7) and xGI (2.21) in the last eight gameweeks and seems an obvious inclusion for us this week.

Man City (53%) are another team performing well defensively in terms of underlying numbers but who just can’t seem to keep a clean sheet at the moment.
One clean sheet in their last seven has left many a manager frustrated but it’s worth noting that in five of those games they conceded a single goal and have conceded just 1.8 shots on target per game.
This week they play Bournemouth, buoyed by their result against Wolves last week but with just three goals in their last eight matches.
Ederson being the “safest” selection in terms of minutes means he gets the nod between the sticks for us this week.

West Ham (47%) are another team in trouble with just one win in their last 11 games and desperately in need of a result when they welcome Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 25. The Bookies are backing Moyes to get the job done in this relegation six-pointer and as the Hammers sit 5th for expected goals conceded since the World Cup it’s easy to think they have been a bit unlucky of late.
Meanwhile, Forest have scored just three goals away from home all season, coming against Leeds, Everton and Bournemouth.
Emerson at just £4.0m seems like a nice punt. His goal against Chelsea a couple of weeks ago shows he has big potential of returns at both ends of the pitch.

Forester (£3.9) remains the sub goalkeeper of choice and James Tarkowski (36%) can only manage a place on the bench this week for his double against Aston Villa (H) and Arsenal (A).

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here

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