Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 26

After double-gameweek-mania swept through the FPL community, we return to a brief spell of normality this gameweek before we are whisked off again.
It’s the usual suspects in attack for the Bookies XI this week, while in defence, some interesting differentials make themselves known to those brave enough to follow.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

We have analysed the standout captaincy options this gameweek, find our conclusion here

Player	Probability	Odds	Team	Position
Erling Haaland	53%	1.9	MCI	FWD
Eddie Nketiah	45%	2.23	ARS	FWD
Ivan Toney	43%	2.35	BRE	FWD
Harry Kane	42%	2.4	TOT	FWD
Bukayo Saka	40%	2.5	ARS	MID
Aleksandar Mitrovic	38%	2.6	FUL	FWD
Mohamed Salah	38%	2.6	LIV	MID
Ollie Watkins	36%	2.75	AVL	FWD
Marcus Rashford	36%	2.75	MUN	MID
Joao Felix	36%	2.8	CHE	FWD
Gabriel Martinelli	34%	2.9	ARS	MID
Martin Odegaard	34%	3.45	ARS	MID
Darwin Nunez	34%	2.9	LIV	FWD
Leandro Trossard	33%	3	ARS	MID
Julian Alvarez	33%	3	MCI	FWD
Kelechi Iheanacho	32%	3.1	LEI	FWD
Son Heung-Min	31%	3.2	TOT	MID
Evan Ferguson	31%	3.25	BHA	FWD
Jamie Vardy	30%	3.3	LEI	FWD
Kai Havertz	30%	3.35	CHE	FWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	30%	3.35	EVE	FWD
Diego Jota	27%	3.7	LIV	MID
Riyad Mahrez	27%	3.7	MCI	MID
Danny Welbeck	27%	3.75	BHA	FWD
Raheem Sterling	26%	3.9	CHE	MID
Kaoru Mitoma	25%	4	BHA	MID
Leon Bailey	24%	4.1	AVL	MID
Wilfried Zaha	24%	4.1	CRY	MID
Wout Weghorst	24%	4.1	MUN	FWD
Yoane Wissa	24%	4.2	BRE	MID
Brennan Johnson	24%	4.2	NFO	FWD
Adam Armstrong	24%	4.2	SOU	FWD
Richarlison	24%	4.2	TOT	FWD
Harvey Barnes	24%	4.25	LEI	MID
Roberto Firmino	24%	4.25	LIV	FWD
Bruno Fernandes	24%	4.25	MUN	MID
Jean-Philippe Mateta	23%	4.3	CRY	FWD
Neal Maupay	23%	4.35	EVE	FWD
Callum Wilson	23%	4.35	NEW	FWD
Che Adams	23%	4.35	SOU	FWD
Carlos Vinicius	23%	4.4	FUL	FWD
Cody Gakpo	23%	4.4	LIV	MID
Chris Wood	22%	4.5	NFO	FWD
Matheus Cunha	22%	4.5	WOL	FWD
Raul Jimenez	22%	4.5	WOL	FWD
Emiliano Buendia	22%	4.6	AVL	MID
Odsonne Edouard	22%	4.6	CRY	FWD
Patrick Bamford	22%	4.6	LEE	FWD
Mykhaylo Mudryk	21%	4.75	CHE	MID
Kevin De Bruyne	21%	4.8	MCI	MID
James Maddison	20%	4.9	LEI	MID
Alexander Isak	20%	4.9	NEW	FWD
Diego Costa	20%	4.9	WOL	FWD
Bryan Mbeumo	20%	5	BRE	FWD
Phil Foden	20%	5	MCI	MID
Anthony Martial	20%	5.1	MUN	FWD
Danny Ings	20%	5.1	WHU	FWD
Ilkay Gundogan	19%	5.2	MCI	MID
Solly March	19%	5.4	BHA	MID
Mason Mount	19%	5.4	CHE	MID
Jadon Sancho	18%	5.6	MUN	MID
Daniel Podence	17%	5.8	WOL	MID
Demarai Gray	16%	6.1	EVE	MID
Jarrod Bowen	16%	6.25	WHU	MID
Pascal Gross	15%	6.5	BHA	MID
Bobby Reid	15%	6.5	FUL	MID
Wilfred Gnonto	15%	6.5	LEE	MID
Dejan Kulusevski	15%	6.5	TOT	MID
Michail Antonio	15%	6.5	WHU	FWD
Dominic Solanke	15%	6.75	BOU	FWD
Jack Grealish	15%	6.75	MCI	MID
Said Benrahma	14%	7	WHU	MID
Crysencio Summerville	13%	7.5	LEE	MID
Granit Xhaka	13%	8	ARS	MID
Andreas Pereira	13%	8	FUL	MID
Bernardo Silva	13%	8	MCI	MID
Miguel Almiron	13%	8	NEW	MID
Ivan Perisic	12%	8.5	TOT	DEF
Allan Saint-Maximin	10%	10.5	NEW	MID
Joe Willock	9%	11.5	NEW	MID
Reece James	8%	12	CHE	DEF
Bruno Guimaraes	8%	12	NEW	MID
Virgil van Dijk	6%	16	LIV	DEF
Trent Alexander-Arnold	6%	18	LIV	DEF

Erling Haaland (53%) returns as the number one captaincy choice after being knocked off top spot last gameweek, though still double returning a double-digit score.
He plays Newcastle this week, who have shown signs of defensive frailty, conceding an expected goals of 6.33 (xGC) in their last three games in the league.
Meanwhile, Haaland has scored six in his last six home matches and while he has slowed down of late, is still banging them in at the Etihad. He takes our armband this week.

Harry Kane (43%) continues to tick along as he made it 24 returns in 25 games with his goal at home to Chelsea in Gameweek 25.
Wolves are his opponent this week, a side with just two clean sheets in their last ten games since the World Cup, though both did come at home. They’re also 17th for xGC (16.62) despite conceding only 11 goals which means they’ve been lucky not to concede more.
Kane by contrast is second only to Haaland for returns in that time with nine returns. He’s an easy inclusion in our XI this week.

Ivan Toney (42%) is another man performing consistently, with five returns in his last seven games and welcomes London rivals Fulham in Gameweek 25.
Marco Silva’s side have been massively outperforming their xGC, conceding just five goals from an xGC of 12.40.
The Bookies do not expect this luck to continue, and with Toney’s consistency combined with his explosiveness, he’s a good pick this week.

Bukayo Saka (40%) continued his excellent season with a goal and assist against Everton, taking him to ten goals and ten assists for the first time in his career with little signs of stopping.
This weekend, he takes on Bournemouth at the Emirates, fresh from the four-goal annihilation at the hands of City. No team has conceded more goals in away games this season which makes Saka’s inclusion an obvious choice.

Marcus Rashford (36%) continued his good form away from the Premier League last week, scoring against Barcelona and Newcastle and will be licking his lips at the prospect of running at Liverpool’s high line.
Liverpool are averaging 3.1 big chances conceded per game since the World Cup and with the form Rashford’s in, we could see an absolute mauling at Anfield on Sunday.

Raheem Sterling (26%) returned to action for Chelsea last weekend as they sunk to new lows in a toothless display at Spurs. The Bookies fancy him somewhat this week and to be fair his opponent Leeds look weak at the back and are 17th for xGC away from home this season.
A purely Bookies Odds XI punt this week, but one with massive potential.

Leon Bailey (24%) & Crysencio Summerville (13%) make up our bench this week. Both are very cheap and with okay fixtures this weekend.

Team	Clean sheet Probability	Odds
Arsenal	61%	1.64
Aston Villa	43%	2.33
Bournemouth	31%	3.25
Brentford	36%	2.75
Brighton	43%	2.35
Chelsea	45%	2.2
Crystal Palace	27%	3.7
Everton	36%	2.75
Fulham	23%	4.3
Leeds	18%	5.5
Leicester	32%	3.1
Liverpool	27%	3.75
Man City	48%	2.1
Man Utd	24%	4.25
Newcastle	13%	7.5
Nottingham Forest	38%	2.65
Southampton	31%	3.2
Tottenham	36%	2.8
West Ham	22%	4.5
Wolves	27%	3.75

Arsenal (61%) showed why they are top of the Premier League in Gameweek 25 with two impressive victories. But more importantly from an FPL point of view, they kept two clean sheets and never really looked like conceding.
This week they play host to Bournemouth who sit 18th for expected goals (xG) from open play in all away games this season. Since the World Cup, they’ve scored just one goal away from home, coming against Wolves in Gameweek 24.
Arsenal by contrast are 3rd for xGC at home so far this season and with Gabriel & Zinchenko netting us 33 points between them last gameweek, we are following a policy of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.

Manchester City (48%) continue to confuse and confound pundits and FPL managers alike with their poor defensive form. It’s now five games without a clean sheet in the league, though it is worth noting that, in all five of those games they conceded just one goal.
This weekend they host Newcastle, who have been struggling for goals of late. Just four goals from open play (16th) since the World Cup has seen them slide out of the top four and failing to score in four of their last eight games in that time.
Ederson is the only member of the City defence that provides security of starting. He makes a safe pair of hands between the sticks for us this weekend.

Chelsea (45%) are another side that continues to frustrate, though the Bookies counsel patience, especially with regard to their defensive assets. The Blues sit fourth for both goals conceded (8) and xGC (10.42) since the World Cup, suggesting they have been somewhat unlucky.
This week they host a Leeds side short on goals themselves, failing to score in three of their last four away games since the World Cup.
Reece James has been slowly building back to full fitness and should get plenty of space to roam down the right against Leeds. Another punt in our XI this week, but again one with a big haul potential.

Brighton (43%) have looked better defensively of late, though have been unlucky not to keep a clean sheet in their last two.
They welcome West Ham to the south coast in Gameweek 25, who sit firmly mid-table for xG (7.76) since the World Cup and are even worse off when you look at the season as a whole, scoring just three goals from open play away from home so far this season.
Pervis Estupinian is expected to be fit on time for this weekend. The Ecuadorian left-back is fifth amongst all defenders for chances created (11) and big chances created (2) since the World Cup and is a bargain at just £4.7m.

Fraser Forster (36%) & Neco Williams (38%) make up our bench this week. Spurs have shown some defensive resilience of late while Nottingham Forest always have a chance of a clean sheet at home.

We have analysed the standout captaincy options this gameweek, find our conclusion here

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here