Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 27

Another Double Gameweek throws up some unlikely picks, especially in attack where a big name is prominent in their absence.
Meanwhile, in defence, some smart and steady assets could reap big rewards due to their kind fixtures.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

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Don’t miss our in-depth analysis of the top captaincy options in gameweek 27

Player	Team	Probability	Probability game 2	Combined probability
Ivan Toney	BRE	35%	35%	58%
Evan Ferguson	BHA	29%	38%	57%
Harry Kane	TOT	51%		51%
Danny Welbeck	BHA	25%	34%	50%
Erling Haaland	MCI	50%		50%
Mohamed Salah	LIV	49%		49%
Marcus Rashford	MUN	48%		48%
Alexis Mac Allister	BHA	26%	27%	45%
Darwin Nunez	LIV	45%		45%
Kaoru Mitoma	BHA	25%	26%	44%
Callum Wilson	NEW	41%		41%
Son Heung-Min	TOT	40%		40%
Yoane Wissa	BRE	18%	26%	39%
Adam Armstrong	SOU	15%	27%	39%
Eddie Nketiah	ARS	38%		38%
Che Adams	SOU	15%	26%	38%
Wilfried Zaha	CRY	18%	22%	36%
Jean-Philippe Mateta	CRY	17%	23%	36%
Diego Jota	LIV	36%		36%
Alexander Isak	NEW	36%		36%
Wout Weghorst	MUN	35%		35%
Cody Gakpo	LIV	34%		34%
Bruno Fernandes	MUN	34%		34%
Solly March	BHA	18%	19%	33%
Calvert-Lewin	EVE	32%		32%
Odsonne Edouard	CRY	15%	20%	32%
Aleksandar Mitrovic	FUL	32%		32%
Richarlison	TOT	31%		31%
Bukayo Saka	ARS	31%		31%
Aubameyang	CHE	31%		31%
Julian Alvarez	MCI	30%		30%
Joao Felix	CHE	30%		30%
Riyad Mahrez	MCI	29%		29%
Bryan Mbeumo	BRE	14%	17%	29%
Ollie Watkins	AVL	29%		29%
Antony	MUN	29%		29%
Danny Ings	WHU	29%		29%
Pascal Gross	BHA	15%	15%	28%
Kai Havertz	CHE	28%		28%
Roberto Firmino	LIV	28%		28%
Gabriel Martinelli	ARS	26%		26%
Jadon Sancho	MUN	26%		26%
Patrick Bamford	LEE	26%		26%
Kelechi Iheanacho	LEI	26%		26%
Raheem Sterling	CHE	25%		25%
Jamie Vardy	LEI	24%		24%
Leandro Trossard	ARS	24%		24%
Neal Maupay	EVE	24%		24%
James Maddison	LEI	24%		24%
Michail Antonio	WHU	23%		23%
Phil Foden	MCI	23%		23%
Kevin De Bruyne	MCI	23%		23%
Jarrod Bowen	WHU	23%		23%
Martin Odegaard	ARS	22%		22%
Miguel Almiron	NEW	22%		22%
Ilkay Gundogan	MCI	21%		21%
Dominic Solanke	BOU	20%		20%
Said Benrahma	WHU	20%		20%
Harvey Barnes	LEI	19%		19%
Joe Willock	NEW	19%		19%
Mykhaylo Mudryk	CHE	19%		19%
Leon Bailey	AVL	19%		19%
Kieffer Moore	BOU	19%		19%
Mason Mount	CHE	18%		18%
Emiliano Buendia	AVL	17%		17%
Carlos Vinicius	FUL	17%		17%
Wilfred Gnonto	LEE	17%		17%
Dejan Kulusevski	TOT	17%		17%
Allan Saint-Maximin	NEW	17%		17%
Brennan Johnson	NFO	17%		17%
Raul Jimenez	WOL	17%		17%
Demarai Gray	EVE	16%		16%
Matheus Cunha	WOL	16%		16%
Bruno Guimaraes	NEW	16%		16%
Chris Wood	NFO	16%		16%
Ivan Perisic	TOT	15%		15%
Jack Grealish	MCI	14%		14%
Bernardo Silva	MCI	14%		14%
Anthony Gordon	NEW	14%		14%
Daniel Podence	WOL	13%		13%
Bobby Reid	FUL	13%		13%
Mathias Jensen	BRE	6%	7%	12%
Andreas Pereira	FUL	10%		10%
Granit Xhaka	ARS	8%		8%
Virgil van Dijk	LIV	8%		8%
Reece James	CHE	8%		8%
Brenden Aaronson	LEE	7%		7%
Alexander-Arnold	LIV	7%		7%

There is no room for league top-scorer Erling Haaland (50%) this week as Ivan Toney (58%) tops the billing in the goalscorer markets going into Gameweek 27. The Bee’s striker has 18 returns (15 goals, 3 assists) in 22 starts in the league this season.
With a double gameweek this week, he plays Everton and Southampton, who sit 20th and 10th, respectively, for goals conceded since the World Cup.
While much has been made of Brentford’s poor attacking data away from home, Toney has still managed eight returns in ten away games, including two double-digit hauls and sits second amongst all forwards for expected goals (xG) (6.28) and expected goal involvement (xGI)(7.58) away from home this season.
Ivan Toney takes the Bookies Advantage XI captain’s armband this week.
He is joined by Brentford teammate Yoanne Wissa who boasts 0.34 xGI per 90 and has seven returns in 11 starts so far this season.

Evan Ferguson (57%) may seem a strange inclusion but his underlying numbers combined with the imperious Brighton attack mean he makes a very shrewd pick ahead of his double gameweek against Leeds United away, and Crystal Palace at home.
The 18-year-old boasts an xG per 90 of 0.52 (higher than Harry Kane!) while his opponents this week are both conceding on average 2.5 big chances per game since the World Cup.
Though it is a risky pick, the Bookies see it as one with massive potential and that’s good enough to stick him in our side this weekend.

Harry Kane (51%) fills out our forward line despite Spurs lacklustre performances of late. The talismanic forward has eight returns in 11 games and will be desperate to get Spurs back on track when they welcome Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 27.
Forest have been poor defensively in away games all year conceding 29 goals in 12 games, conceding four or more goals on four occasions.

Mohammed Salah (49%) punished wildcarders last week as he grabbed two goals and two assists for a 21-point return as his side thrashed Man United 7-0.
This week he travels to Bournemouth, who are 19th for goals conceded since the World Cup, letting in 19 goals in 10 games.
With Salah finally making good on his underlying statistics, the Bookies are backing him to kick on from here and get back to his very best.

Marcus Rashford (48%) will be hoping to lead his side back to winning ways after an abject performance last week. He continues to top the table amongst midfielders for shots in the box, big chances and xG. He plays Southampton at home this weekend who have conceded 22 goals in 13 away games this season and are weak down their right flank.

On the bench for us this week is Wilfried Zaha (36%) now back from injury and with an unfavourable double & Cody Gakpo (34%) playing away at Bournemouth after his brace against Man United last weekend.

Team	CS Probability	CS Probability game 2	Combined probability
Brighton	37%	49%	68%
Brentford	34%	33%	56%
Man City	55%		55%
Tottenham	52%		52%
Man Utd	52%		52%
Newcastle	49%		49%
Arsenal	46%		46%
Liverpool	46%		46%
Chelsea	40%		40%
Southampton	13%	31%	40%
West Ham	37%		37%
Everton	35%		35%
Crystal Palace	14%	19%	30%
Aston Villa	28%		28%
Leicester	24%		24%
Leeds	23%		23%
Wolves	21%		21%
Fulham	18%		18%
Nottingham Forest	15%		15%
Bournemouth	14%		14%

Brighton (68%) top the charts for odds of keeping a clean sheet in one of their two games in the double when they will be taking on Leeds United away, as well as Crystal Palace at home in what has been termed the “M23 Derby”.
Brighton are fourth for expected goals conceded (xGC) since the World Cup, keeping three clean sheets and conceding just one goal in four others.
Meanwhile their opponents Leeds and Palace sit 20th and 17th respectively in terms of xG from open play in the same time period.
Pervis Estupinian is top five amongst defenders for both chances and big chances created, while Lewis Dunk is a reliable starter alongside him for a defensive double-up in our team this week.

Manchester City (55%) finally kept a clean sheet last weekend after being without for five games on the trot. They will be confident of keeping another this weekend when they travel to Crystal Palace side who have failed to score in six of their 11 games since the World Cup.
Man City’s expected data has seen them slip to third amongst all teams for xGC since the World Cup but with Patrick Viera’s men so woefully out of form in front of goal, the Bookies are confident of a Man City shut out.
Ruben Dias seems to be the most nailed in the City defence right now, starting each of the last four games. He seems a safe bet in our side this week.

Brentford (56%), now on a 12 game undefeated streak, also have a good chance of at least one clean sheet from their double as they travel to both Everton and Southampton.
The Bees sit second for goals conceded in the last 11 gameweeks, letting in just seven goals in that time and while their away form hasn’t always been brilliant, they have managed two clean sheets in their last three away games. The only concession coming away at Arsenal.
Southampton and Everon sit 19th and 18th respectively both in terms of open play goals (1 each) as well as open play xG since the World Cup.
Rico Henry boasts the highest expected goal involvement of all the Brentford defenders which is the reason he makes our team this week.

Despite Spurs (52%) disappointing last week or so, defensively, they have been relatively solid, keeping four clean sheets in their previous six league games.
This week they host Nottingham Forest, who have an abysmal away record, scoring just three goals on the road all season.
Fraser Forster is available for just £3.9m and seems a shrewd pick in order to maximise the money spent on our ten outfield players.

On the bench for us this weekend is Danny Ward (£4.0m) who takes on Chelsea at home & Romain Perraud (£4.1m) who welcomes Brentford.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here