Another Double Gameweek throws up some unlikely picks, especially in attack where a big name is prominent in their absence.
Meanwhile, in defence, some smart and steady assets could reap big rewards due to their kind fixtures.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
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Don’t miss our in-depth analysis of the top captaincy options in gameweek 27
Goalscorer odds gameweek 27
|Player||Team||Probability||Probability game 2||Combined probability|
|Alexis Mac Allister||BHA||26%||27%||45%|
|Kevin De Bruyne||MCI||23%||23%|
|Virgil van Dijk||LIV||8%||8%|
There is no room for league top-scorer Erling Haaland (50%) this week as Ivan Toney (58%) tops the billing in the goalscorer markets going into Gameweek 27. The Bee’s striker has 18 returns (15 goals, 3 assists) in 22 starts in the league this season.
With a double gameweek this week, he plays Everton and Southampton, who sit 20th and 10th, respectively, for goals conceded since the World Cup.
While much has been made of Brentford’s poor attacking data away from home, Toney has still managed eight returns in ten away games, including two double-digit hauls and sits second amongst all forwards for expected goals (xG) (6.28) and expected goal involvement (xGI)(7.58) away from home this season.
Ivan Toney takes the Bookies Advantage XI captain’s armband this week.
He is joined by Brentford teammate Yoanne Wissa who boasts 0.34 xGI per 90 and has seven returns in 11 starts so far this season.
Evan Ferguson (57%) may seem a strange inclusion but his underlying numbers combined with the imperious Brighton attack mean he makes a very shrewd pick ahead of his double gameweek against Leeds United away, and Crystal Palace at home.
The 18-year-old boasts an xG per 90 of 0.52 (higher than Harry Kane!) while his opponents this week are both conceding on average 2.5 big chances per game since the World Cup.
Though it is a risky pick, the Bookies see it as one with massive potential and that’s good enough to stick him in our side this weekend.
Harry Kane (51%) fills out our forward line despite Spurs lacklustre performances of late. The talismanic forward has eight returns in 11 games and will be desperate to get Spurs back on track when they welcome Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 27.
Forest have been poor defensively in away games all year conceding 29 goals in 12 games, conceding four or more goals on four occasions.
Mohammed Salah (49%) punished wildcarders last week as he grabbed two goals and two assists for a 21-point return as his side thrashed Man United 7-0.
This week he travels to Bournemouth, who are 19th for goals conceded since the World Cup, letting in 19 goals in 10 games.
With Salah finally making good on his underlying statistics, the Bookies are backing him to kick on from here and get back to his very best.
Marcus Rashford (48%) will be hoping to lead his side back to winning ways after an abject performance last week. He continues to top the table amongst midfielders for shots in the box, big chances and xG. He plays Southampton at home this weekend who have conceded 22 goals in 13 away games this season and are weak down their right flank.
On the bench for us this week is Wilfried Zaha (36%) now back from injury and with an unfavourable double & Cody Gakpo (34%) playing away at Bournemouth after his brace against Man United last weekend.
Clean sheet odds gameweek 27
|Team||CS Probability||CS Probability game 2||Combined probability|
Brighton (68%) top the charts for odds of keeping a clean sheet in one of their two games in the double when they will be taking on Leeds United away, as well as Crystal Palace at home in what has been termed the “M23 Derby”.
Brighton are fourth for expected goals conceded (xGC) since the World Cup, keeping three clean sheets and conceding just one goal in four others.
Meanwhile their opponents Leeds and Palace sit 20th and 17th respectively in terms of xG from open play in the same time period.
Pervis Estupinian is top five amongst defenders for both chances and big chances created, while Lewis Dunk is a reliable starter alongside him for a defensive double-up in our team this week.
Manchester City (55%) finally kept a clean sheet last weekend after being without for five games on the trot. They will be confident of keeping another this weekend when they travel to Crystal Palace side who have failed to score in six of their 11 games since the World Cup.
Man City’s expected data has seen them slip to third amongst all teams for xGC since the World Cup but with Patrick Viera’s men so woefully out of form in front of goal, the Bookies are confident of a Man City shut out.
Ruben Dias seems to be the most nailed in the City defence right now, starting each of the last four games. He seems a safe bet in our side this week.
Brentford (56%), now on a 12 game undefeated streak, also have a good chance of at least one clean sheet from their double as they travel to both Everton and Southampton.
The Bees sit second for goals conceded in the last 11 gameweeks, letting in just seven goals in that time and while their away form hasn’t always been brilliant, they have managed two clean sheets in their last three away games. The only concession coming away at Arsenal.
Southampton and Everon sit 19th and 18th respectively both in terms of open play goals (1 each) as well as open play xG since the World Cup.
Rico Henry boasts the highest expected goal involvement of all the Brentford defenders which is the reason he makes our team this week.
Despite Spurs (52%) disappointing last week or so, defensively, they have been relatively solid, keeping four clean sheets in their previous six league games.
This week they host Nottingham Forest, who have an abysmal away record, scoring just three goals on the road all season.
Fraser Forster is available for just £3.9m and seems a shrewd pick in order to maximise the money spent on our ten outfield players.
On the bench for us this weekend is Danny Ward (£4.0m) who takes on Chelsea at home & Romain Perraud (£4.1m) who welcomes Brentford.
Team of gameweek 27
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here