Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 3

With many managers having two free transfers burning a hole in their pocket, Gameweek 3 provides excellent opportunities for low-priced assets to go big.

In attack this week, we see a trio of dangerous English wingers, while in defence there are no surprises with the top six clubs heavily favoured.

Check out our captaincy article here

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscorer odds gameweek 3

Erling Haaland67%1.5MCIFWD
Marcus Rashford52%1.93MUNMID
Nicolas Jackson51%1.96CHEFWD
Evan Ferguson51%1.98BHAFWD
Julian Alvarez46%2.17MCIFWD
Callum Wilson45%2.2NEWFWD
Eddie Nketiah42%2.4ARSFWD
Bukayo Saka41%2.45ARSMID
Gabriel Martinelli40%2.48ARSMID
Raheem Sterling40%2.5CHEMID
Kai Havertz39%2.55ARSMID
Alexander Isak39%2.55NEWFWD
Phil Foden38%2.6MCIMID
Martin Odegaard38%2.65ARSMID
Ollie Watkins38%2.65AVLFWD
Bryan Mbeumo38%2.65BREMID
Yoane Wissa38%2.65BREFWD
Mohamed Salah36%2.75LIVMID
Son Heung-Min36%2.75TOTMID
James Maddison36%2.75TOTMID
Leandro Trossard34%2.9ARSMID
Bruno Fernandes34%2.9MUNMID
Harvey Barnes34%2.9NEWMID
Kaoru Mitoma34%2.95BHAMID
Moussa Diaby33%3AVLMID
Anthony Martial32%3.1MUNFWD
Cameron Archer31%3.25AVLFWD
Jadon Sancho31%3.25MUNMID
Dominic Solanke30%3.3BOUFWD
Darwin Nunez30%3.3LIVFWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin29%3.4EVEFWD
Palmer Cole29%3.4MCIMID
Justin Kluivert29%3.45BOUMID
Solly March28%3.55BHAMID
Diego Jota28%3.55LIVMID
Sasa Kalajdzic28%3.55WOLFWD
Kieffer Moore28%3.6BOUFWD
Jay Rodriguez28%3.6BURFWD
Bernardo Silva27%3.7MCIMID
Jean-Philippe Mateta26%3.8CRYFWD
Danny Ings26%3.85WHUFWD
Mykhaylo Mudryk25%3.95CHEMID
Jack Grealish25%3.95MCIMID
Keane Lewis-Potter25%4BREMID
Odsonne Edouard24%4.1CRYFWD
Luis Díaz24%4.1LIVMID
Pascal Gross24%4.2BHAMID
Dejan Kulusevski24%4.2TOTMID
Kevin Schade23%4.3BREMID
Eberechi Eze23%4.3CRYMID
Conor Gallagher23%4.4CHEMID
Miguel Almiron23%4.4NEWMID
Taiwo Awoniyi23%4.4NFOFWD
Carlos Vinicius22%4.5FULFWD
Cody Gakpo22%4.5LIVFWD
Lyle Foster21%4.75BURFWD
Demarai Gray21%4.8EVEMID
Hee-Chan Hwang21%4.8WOLMID
Ivan Perisic20%4.9TOTDEF
Michail Antonio20%4.9WHUFWD
Philip Billing20%5BOUMID
Neal Maupay20%5EVEFWD
Christian Eriksen20%5MUNMID
Rodrigo Muniz19%5.3FULFWD
Jarrod Bowen19%5.3WHUMID
Said Benrahma19%5.3WHUMID
Elliot Anderson18%5.6NEWMID
Daniel Podence17%5.75WOLMID
Anthony Gordon17%5.8NEWMID
Declan Rice17%6ARSMID
Carlton Morris17%6LUTFWD
Alex Mac Allister16%6.1LIVMID
Bruno Guimaraes15%6.5NEWMID
Chris Wood15%6.5NFOFWD
William Osula14%7SHUFWD
Bobby Reid12%8.5FULMID
Harry Wilson12%8.5FULMID
Sandro Tonali11%9.5NEWMID
Andreas Pereira10%10FULMID
Virgil van Dijk6%16LIVDEF
Trent Alexander-Arnold6%17LIVDEF
Goalscorer odds gameweek 3 23/24

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After being forced to settle for the vice-captaincy last week in favour of Mo Salah, Erling Haaland (67%) returns as by far and away the most likely goal scorer for Gameweek 3 according to the odds.

The big Norwegian was unlucky not to score against Newcastle in Gameweek 2 dragging two great chances just wide of the post. He’ll be looking to make amends this weekend when he travels to play a Sheffield United side who look all over the place defensively and sit 16th for shots in the box conceded.

Captaining the City striker up against the newly promoted side is one of the easiest decisions you’ll make all season.

Marcus Rashford (52%) is next up despite an underwhelming start to the season. The talismanic winger has blanked in his two opening games and looks lost at centre forward. The Bookies are backing both him and Man United to turn it around this weekend when they take on Nottingham Forest at home. The Red Devils played Forest four times last season beating them by a combined total of 10-0, with Rashford grabbing two goals and an assist in the two games in which he played.

Patience is needed with Rashford this week.

Nicolas Jackson (51%) again failed to capitalise on a high xG and now sits with no goals from an xG of 1.33 and three big chances. Is he about to deliver on his potential this gameweek at home to Luton Town, or is he just another cursed Chelsea striker?

The Bookies seem to think the former. The Hatters conceded six big chances to Brighton on the opening day and if they give up those kinds of chances again, Jackson is bound to score.

So confident are the Bookies in Chelsea that we have doubled up in attack with Raheem Sterling (40%) who’s looked good in both games though lacking end product. Luton conceded 13 chances down their left flank in Gameweek 1, and Sterling could profit from this zonal weakness.

Eddie Nketiah (42%) & Bukayo Saka (40%) make up the last two starting attackers for the Bookies Advantage starting XI this week.

Arsenal have looked a bit stunted in attack in their two opening fixtures but with Fulham coming to town this week, that could change. The Cottagers are comfortably the worst team in the league for expected goals conceded (xGC) with 6.66.

Nketiah has two returns in two and missed two big chances away at Palace. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to put things to right this weekend.

Saka (40%) looks to have picked up where he left off last season and is always a danger regardless of opposition.

With an embarrassment of riches left over this week, our bench is made up of Bryan Mbeumo (38%) who has been in great form of late, as well as Richarlison (39%), who is very much not.

Clean sheet odds gameweek 3

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City62%1.61
Man Utd50%2.02
Aston Villa33%3.05
Crystal Palace26%3.8
West Ham13%7.5
Nottingham Forest11%9.5
Sheffield Utd9%11.5
Clean sheet odds gameweek 3 23/24

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Manchester City (62%) have got two clean sheets from two games and are strong favourites to add a third this weekend when they travel to Bramall Lane to take on a Sheffield United side that look toothless in attack.

With just 0.85 xG from their opening fixtures, they are the lowest ranked side for xG from those clubs that have played two games. Manchester City, by contrast have conceded just two shots on target, zero big chances and an xGC of 0.62.

Ederson is the most nailed route into the City defence and he is joined by Manuel Akanji who seems to be playing further forward in Stones absence resulting in him performing well when it comes to the bonus points system.

Chelsea (56%) are without a clean sheet in 11 premier league games in a run that stretches back to April. They won’t get many better chances than this weekend as they welcome newly promoted Luton Town to Stamford Bridge.

It’s difficult to assess the Hatters after just one game, however, they were very lucky to score against Brighton on the opening day, creating just 0.48 xG from open play before winning a controversial penalty.

Ben Chilwell has become a very popular asset all of a sudden and with his attacking threat it’s no wonder why. He’s an easy selection in our team this week.

Arsenal (54%) picked up their first clean sheet of the season despite going down to ten men away at Crystal Palace in Gameweek 2. The Gunners looked assured in defence giving up minimal chances and defending their box very well.

This week they host Fulham at the Emirates, now without talismanic striker Mitrovic, they look weak in attack having just two shots on target at Everton in their last away game.

William Saliba remains the safest defensive asset in the Gunners backline and seems to do well on bonus. He makes a safe pick for us this gameweek.

Manchester United (50%) are the last side on our list as the Bookies show faith in Erik Ten Hag despite recent performances.

They host Nottingham Forest this week who’s poor goal scoring record away from home is well documented. In 19 away games last season they scored just 11 goals and we’ve seen little reason to suggest why that trend won’t continue this weekend at Old Trafford.

Raphael Varane looks the safest bet here, as he looks dangerous from set pieces and doesn’t have the same penchant for yellow cards as his centre-back partner.

On the bench for us in defence is Alphonse Areola (£4.0m) who saved a penalty last weekend, as well as Jordan Beyer of Burnley as he has the highest chance of all the £4.0m assets of a clean sheet with 23%.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here

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