Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 3

With many managers having two free transfers burning a hole in their pocket, Gameweek 3 provides excellent opportunities for low-priced assets to go big.

In attack this week, we see a trio of dangerous English wingers, while in defence there are no surprises with the top six clubs heavily favoured.

Check out our captaincy article here

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Player	Probability	Odds	Team	Position
Erling Haaland	67%	1.5	MCI	FWD
Marcus Rashford	52%	1.93	MUN	MID
Nicolas Jackson	51%	1.96	CHE	FWD
Evan Ferguson	51%	1.98	BHA	FWD
Julian Alvarez	46%	2.17	MCI	FWD
Callum Wilson	45%	2.2	NEW	FWD
Eddie Nketiah	42%	2.4	ARS	FWD
Bukayo Saka	41%	2.45	ARS	MID
Gabriel Martinelli	40%	2.48	ARS	MID
Raheem Sterling	40%	2.5	CHE	MID
Kai Havertz	39%	2.55	ARS	MID
Alexander Isak	39%	2.55	NEW	FWD
Richarlison	39%	2.55	TOT	FWD
Phil Foden	38%	2.6	MCI	MID
Martin Odegaard	38%	2.65	ARS	MID
Ollie Watkins	38%	2.65	AVL	FWD
Bryan Mbeumo	38%	2.65	BRE	MID
Yoane Wissa	38%	2.65	BRE	FWD
Mohamed Salah	36%	2.75	LIV	MID
Son Heung-Min	36%	2.75	TOT	MID
James Maddison	36%	2.75	TOT	MID
Leandro Trossard	34%	2.9	ARS	MID
Bruno Fernandes	34%	2.9	MUN	MID
Harvey Barnes	34%	2.9	NEW	MID
Kaoru Mitoma	34%	2.95	BHA	MID
Moussa Diaby	33%	3	AVL	MID
Antony	33%	3.05	MUN	MID
Anthony Martial	32%	3.1	MUN	FWD
Cameron Archer	31%	3.25	AVL	FWD
Jadon Sancho	31%	3.25	MUN	MID
Dominic Solanke	30%	3.3	BOU	FWD
Darwin Nunez	30%	3.3	LIV	FWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	29%	3.4	EVE	FWD
Palmer Cole	29%	3.4	MCI	MID
Justin Kluivert	29%	3.45	BOU	MID
Benson	29%	3.5	BUR	MID
Solly March	28%	3.55	BHA	MID
Diego Jota	28%	3.55	LIV	MID
Sasa Kalajdzic	28%	3.55	WOL	FWD
Kieffer Moore	28%	3.6	BOU	FWD
Jay Rodriguez	28%	3.6	BUR	FWD
Bernardo Silva	27%	3.7	MCI	MID
Jean-Philippe Mateta	26%	3.8	CRY	FWD
Danny Ings	26%	3.85	WHU	FWD
Mykhaylo Mudryk	25%	3.95	CHE	MID
Jack Grealish	25%	3.95	MCI	MID
Keane Lewis-Potter	25%	4	BRE	MID
Odsonne Edouard	24%	4.1	CRY	FWD
Luis Díaz	24%	4.1	LIV	MID
Pascal Gross	24%	4.2	BHA	MID
Dejan Kulusevski	24%	4.2	TOT	MID
Kevin Schade	23%	4.3	BRE	MID
Eberechi Eze	23%	4.3	CRY	MID
Conor Gallagher	23%	4.4	CHE	MID
Miguel Almiron	23%	4.4	NEW	MID
Taiwo Awoniyi	23%	4.4	NFO	FWD
Carlos Vinicius	22%	4.5	FUL	FWD
Cody Gakpo	22%	4.5	LIV	FWD
Lyle Foster	21%	4.75	BUR	FWD
Demarai Gray	21%	4.8	EVE	MID
Hee-Chan Hwang	21%	4.8	WOL	MID
Ivan Perisic	20%	4.9	TOT	DEF
Michail Antonio	20%	4.9	WHU	FWD
Philip Billing	20%	5	BOU	MID
Neal Maupay	20%	5	EVE	FWD
Christian Eriksen	20%	5	MUN	MID
Rodrigo Muniz	19%	5.3	FUL	FWD
Jarrod Bowen	19%	5.3	WHU	MID
Said Benrahma	19%	5.3	WHU	MID
Enzo	18%	5.6	CHE	MID
Elliot Anderson	18%	5.6	NEW	MID
Daniel Podence	17%	5.75	WOL	MID
Anthony Gordon	17%	5.8	NEW	MID
Declan Rice	17%	6	ARS	MID
Carlton Morris	17%	6	LUT	FWD
Alex Mac Allister	16%	6.1	LIV	MID
Rodri	16%	6.1	MCI	MID
Bruno Guimaraes	15%	6.5	NEW	MID
Chris Wood	15%	6.5	NFO	FWD
William Osula	14%	7	SHU	FWD
Bobby Reid	12%	8.5	FUL	MID
Harry Wilson	12%	8.5	FUL	MID
Sandro Tonali	11%	9.5	NEW	MID
Andreas Pereira	10%	10	FUL	MID
Virgil van Dijk	6%	16	LIV	DEF
Trent Alexander-Arnold	6%	17	LIV	DEF

After being forced to settle for the vice-captaincy last week in favour of Mo Salah, Erling Haaland (67%) returns as by far and away the most likely goal scorer for Gameweek 3 according to the odds.

The big Norwegian was unlucky not to score against Newcastle in Gameweek 2 dragging two great chances just wide of the post. He’ll be looking to make amends this weekend when he travels to play a Sheffield United side who look all over the place defensively and sit 16th for shots in the box conceded.

Captaining the City striker up against the newly promoted side is one of the easiest decisions you’ll make all season.

Marcus Rashford (52%) is next up despite an underwhelming start to the season. The talismanic winger has blanked in his two opening games and looks lost at centre forward. The Bookies are backing both him and Man United to turn it around this weekend when they take on Nottingham Forest at home. The Red Devils played Forest four times last season beating them by a combined total of 10-0, with Rashford grabbing two goals and an assist in the two games in which he played.

Patience is needed with Rashford this week.

Nicolas Jackson (51%) again failed to capitalise on a high xG and now sits with no goals from an xG of 1.33 and three big chances. Is he about to deliver on his potential this gameweek at home to Luton Town, or is he just another cursed Chelsea striker?

The Bookies seem to think the former. The Hatters conceded six big chances to Brighton on the opening day and if they give up those kinds of chances again, Jackson is bound to score.

So confident are the Bookies in Chelsea that we have doubled up in attack with Raheem Sterling (40%) who’s looked good in both games though lacking end product. Luton conceded 13 chances down their left flank in Gameweek 1, and Sterling could profit from this zonal weakness.

Eddie Nketiah (42%) & Bukayo Saka (40%) make up the last two starting attackers for the Bookies Advantage starting XI this week.

Arsenal have looked a bit stunted in attack in their two opening fixtures but with Fulham coming to town this week, that could change. The Cottagers are comfortably the worst team in the league for expected goals conceded (xGC) with 6.66.

Nketiah has two returns in two and missed two big chances away at Palace. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to put things to right this weekend.

Saka (40%) looks to have picked up where he left off last season and is always a danger regardless of opposition.

With an embarrassment of riches left over this week, our bench is made up of Bryan Mbeumo (38%) who has been in great form of late, as well as Richarlison (39%), who is very much not.

Team	Clean Sheet Probability	Odds
Man City	62%	1.61
Chelsea	56%	1.79
Arsenal	54%	1.85
Man Utd	50%	2.02
Brentford	38%	2.6
Brighton	38%	2.65
Everton	37%	2.7
Aston Villa	33%	3.05
Tottenham	32%	3.15
Wolves	29%	3.5
Crystal Palace	26%	3.8
Newcastle	25%	3.95
Burnley	24%	4.25
Liverpool	19%	5.3
Bournemouth	18%	5.6
West Ham	13%	7.5
Luton	11%	9
Nottingham Forest	11%	9.5
Sheffield Utd	9%	11.5
Fulham	8%	12.5

Manchester City (62%) have got two clean sheets from two games and are strong favourites to add a third this weekend when they travel to Bramall Lane to take on a Sheffield United side that look toothless in attack.

With just 0.85 xG from their opening fixtures, they are the lowest ranked side for xG from those clubs that have played two games. Manchester City, by contrast have conceded just two shots on target, zero big chances and an xGC of 0.62.

Ederson is the most nailed route into the City defence and he is joined by Manuel Akanji who seems to be playing further forward in Stones absence resulting in him performing well when it comes to the bonus points system.

Chelsea (56%) are without a clean sheet in 11 premier league games in a run that stretches back to April. They won’t get many better chances than this weekend as they welcome newly promoted Luton Town to Stamford Bridge.

It’s difficult to assess the Hatters after just one game, however, they were very lucky to score against Brighton on the opening day, creating just 0.48 xG from open play before winning a controversial penalty.

Ben Chilwell has become a very popular asset all of a sudden and with his attacking threat it’s no wonder why. He’s an easy selection in our team this week.

Arsenal (54%) picked up their first clean sheet of the season despite going down to ten men away at Crystal Palace in Gameweek 2. The Gunners looked assured in defence giving up minimal chances and defending their box very well.

This week they host Fulham at the Emirates, now without talismanic striker Mitrovic, they look weak in attack having just two shots on target at Everton in their last away game.

William Saliba remains the safest defensive asset in the Gunners backline and seems to do well on bonus. He makes a safe pick for us this gameweek.

Manchester United (50%) are the last side on our list as the Bookies show faith in Erik Ten Hag despite recent performances.

They host Nottingham Forest this week who’s poor goal scoring record away from home is well documented. In 19 away games last season they scored just 11 goals and we’ve seen little reason to suggest why that trend won’t continue this weekend at Old Trafford.

Raphael Varane looks the safest bet here, as he looks dangerous from set pieces and doesn’t have the same penchant for yellow cards as his centre-back partner.

On the bench for us in defence is Alphonse Areola (£4.0m) who saved a penalty last weekend, as well as Jordan Beyer of Burnley as he has the highest chance of all the £4.0m assets of a clean sheet with 23%.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here