We are back with a look at goalscorer and clean sheet odds for Gameweek 3.
Those maverick managers with steady knees may be rewarded this weekend with a certain South Korean favoured over the Egyptian King. Meanwhile, it’s more of the same upfront, as Jesus is expected to deliver us from evil once again.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 3
| Player | Goal probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 64% | 1.57 | MCI | FWD |
| Harry Kane | 58% | 1.73 | TOT | FWD |
| Son Heung-Min | 58% | 1.73 | TOT | MID |
| Jamie Vardy | 55% | 1.83 | LEI | FWD |
| Richarlison | 50% | 2 | TOT | FWD |
| Gabriel Jesus | 50% | 2 | ARS | FWD |
| Mohamed Salah | 50% | 2 | LIV | MID |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | 48% | 2.1 | FUL | FWD |
| Patson Daka | 48% | 2.1 | LEI | FWD |
| Kelechi Iheanacho | 48% | 2.1 | LEI | FWD |
| Bukayo Saka | 42% | 2.4 | ARS | MID |
| Riyad Mahrez | 42% | 2.4 | MCI | MID |
| Kai Havertz | 40% | 2.5 | CHE | FWD |
| Ivan Toney | 38% | 2.6 | BRE | FWD |
| Roberto Firmino | 38% | 2.63 | LIV | MID |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 38% | 2.63 | MUN | FWD |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 37% | 2.7 | MCI | MID |
| Ivan Perisic | 36% | 2.75 | TOT | DEF |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 36% | 2.75 | ARS | MID |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 36% | 2.8 | CRY | FWD |
| Odsonne Edouard | 36% | 2.8 | CRY | FWD |
| Luis Diaz | 36% | 2.8 | LIV | MID |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 35% | 2.88 | TOT | MID |
| Raheem Sterling | 35% | 2.88 | CHE | MID |
| Phil Foden | 35% | 2.88 | MCI | MID |
| James Maddison | 33% | 3 | LEI | MID |
| Michail Antonio | 33% | 3 | WHU | FWD |
| Wilfried Zaha | 31% | 3.2 | CRY | MID |
| Sekou Mara | 31% | 3.2 | SOU | FWD |
| Hakim Ziyech | 31% | 3.2 | CHE | MID |
| Danny Ings | 31% | 3.25 | AVL | FWD |
| Ollie Watkins | 30% | 3.3 | AVL | FWD |
| Gianluca Scamacca | 30% | 3.3 | WHU | FWD |
| Maxwel Cornet | 30% | 3.3 | WHU | MID |
| Adam Armstrong | 29% | 3.4 | SOU | FWD |
| Che Adams | 29% | 3.4 | SOU | FWD |
| Emile Smith Rowe | 29% | 3.4 | ARS | MID |
| Mason Mount | 29% | 3.4 | CHE | MID |
| Fabio Carvalho | 29% | 3.4 | LIV | MID |
| Philippe Coutinho | 29% | 3.5 | AVL | MID |
| Deniz Undav | 29% | 3.5 | BHA | FWD |
| Anthony Gordon | 28% | 3.6 | EVE | MID |
| Ilkay Gundogan | 28% | 3.6 | MCI | FWD |
| Callum Wilson | 28% | 3.6 | NEW | FWD |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | 27% | 3.75 | NFO | FWD |
| Emmanuel Dennis | 27% | 3.75 | NFO | FWD |
| Sam Surridge | 27% | 3.75 | NFO | FWD |
| Yoane Wissa | 27% | 3.75 | BRE | MID |
| Martin Odegaard | 27% | 3.75 | ARS | MID |
| Danny Welbeck | 27% | 3.75 | BHA | FWD |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi | 27% | 3.75 | CHE | MID |
| Jack Grealish | 27% | 3.75 | MCI | FWD |
| Harvey Elliott | 27% | 3.75 | LIV | MID |
| Ryan Sessegnon | 25% | 4 | TOT | DEF |
| Bruno Fernandes | 25% | 4 | MUN | MID |
| Jarrod Bowen | 24% | 4.2 | BHA | MID |
| Demarai Gray | 23% | 4.33 | EVE | MID |
| Brennan Johnson | 23% | 4.33 | NFO | FWD |
| Youri Tielemans | 23% | 4.33 | LEI | MID |
| Dominic Solanke | 23% | 4.33 | BOU | FWD |
| Jorginho | 23% | 4.33 | CHE | MID |
| Bernardo Silva | 23% | 4.33 | MCI | MID |
| Emiliano Buendia | 22% | 4.5 | AVL | MID |
| Leon Bailey | 22% | 4.5 | AVL | MID |
| Andreas Pereira | 22% | 4.5 | FUL | MID |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | 22% | 4.5 | BRE | MID |
| Kieffer Moore | 22% | 4.5 | BOU | FWD |
| Said Benrahma | 22% | 4.5 | WHU | MID |
| Pablo Fornals | 22% | 4.5 | WHU | MID |
| Leandro Trossard | 22% | 4.5 | BHA | MID |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 22% | 4.5 | CHE | MID |
| Naby Keita | 22% | 4.5 | LIV | MID |
| Marcus Rashford | 22% | 4.5 | MUN | MID |
| Dele Alli | 20% | 5 | EVE | MID |
| Dwight McNeil | 20% | 5 | EVE | MID |
| Mikkel Damsgaard | 20% | 5 | BRE | MID |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 20% | 5 | BRE | FWD |
| Mohamed Elyounoussi | 20% | 5 | SOU | MID |
| Jadon Sancho | 20% | 5 | MUN | MID |
| Matt Doherty | 18% | 5.5 | TOT | DEF |
| Jacob Ramsey | 18% | 5.5 | AVL | MID |
| Stuart Armstrong | 18% | 5.5 | SOU | FWD |
| Jesse Lingard | 17% | 6 | NFO | MID |
| Josh Dasilva | 17% | 6 | BRE | MID |
| Pascal Gross | 15% | 6.5 | BHA | MID |
| Reece James | 15% | 6.5 | CHE | DEF |
| Allan Saint-Maximin | 14% | 7 | NEW | MID |
| Christian Eriksen | 14% | 7 | MUN | MID |
| Fabinho | 14% | 7 | LIV | MID |
| Joe Willock | 13% | 7.5 | NEW | MID |
| Joao Cancelo | 13% | 8 | MCI | DEF |
| Joelinton | 13% | 8 | NEW | MID |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 13% | 8 | NEW | MID |
| Virgil Van Dijk | 12% | 8.5 | LIV | DEF |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko | 11% | 9 | ARS | DEF |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 11% | 9.5 | LIV | DEF |
| Joel Matip | 10% | 10 | LIV | DEF |
| Neco Williams | 9% | 11 | NFO | DEF |
| Andrew Robertson | 9% | 11 | LIV | DEF |
The first thing that jumps out of the goalscorer odds table is that the bookies favour Son (58%) over Salah (50%). Spurs and Son, in particular, were irresistible at home last season, with the South Korean netting 14 goals in 19 games.
They play Wolves this week, who have started the season slowly and appear to be struggling to adapt to a new four-at-the-back system.
Meanwhile, Liverpool have also had an equally sluggish start after being hit with an injury crisis with crucial players sidelined for the time being. They take on a Manchester United side in a crisis of a different kind.
Both Son and Salah look like options, but the bookies slightly favour the Spurs man, coming in at £1m cheaper to boot.
Manchester City’s new boy Erling Haaland (64%) comes out on top in terms of goal-scoring odds and once again gets the captains’ armband from us.
Man City scored 9 goals without reply last year in their two games against Newcastle in the league. Despite an underwhelming return against Bournemouth, the City striker is expected to return to the scoresheet this time out.
We see no reason to bet against the bookies this week.
Gabriel Jesus (50%) was the lord and saviour of many an FPL manager last weekend, pulling in a haul of two goals, two assists and 19 points. But, even with all that, it could have been much more. The Brazilian is top for xG amongst all players in the league over the first two gameweeks and faces a Bournemouth side who offered little by way of resistance away at Man City.
No need to overthink this one, Gabriel Jesus is an easy inclusion in our starting XI this week.
The front three is completed by another returning player from last week in Aleksandar Mitrovic (48%). A brutal 10-point-swing saw the Fulham man with -1 point the previous week, but the situation could have been so different if Jose Sa had not saved the Serbian’s spot kick. Unmarred by emotion, the bookies are backing Mitrovic to get back on the horse this weekend at home to rivals Brentford.
Bukayo Saka (42%) and Riyad Mahrez (42%) star in our midfield alongside Son. Both wingers have had a frustrating start to the season but write them off at your peril. Both have haul potential in any game, and the odds suggest the two wingers can realise their potential in Gameweek 3.
On the bench, we have Josh Da Silva (17%), who scored his second goal in two games, though somewhat fortuitously, against Man United.
He is joined once again by Andreas Pereira (22%), who is carrying a slight knock but is expected to be fit to face Brentford this weekend.
They occupy the 2nd and 3rd spaces on our bench, respectively.
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 3
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Arsenal | 52% | 1.91 |
| Tottenham | 52% | 1.91 |
| Man City | 49% | 2.05 |
| Chelse | 44% | 2.25 |
| Everton | 41% | 2.45 |
| Man Utd | 38% | 2.62 |
| Leicester | 36% | 2.8 |
| West Ham | 36% | 2.8 |
| Crystal Palace | 34% | 2.9 |
| Fulham | 32% | 3.1 |
| Aston Villa | 31% | 3.25 |
| Brentford | 28% | 3.6 |
| Brighton | 27% | 3.75 |
| Nottingham Forest | 24% | 4.2 |
| Southampton | 18% | 5.5 |
| Leeds | 17% | 6 |
| Bournemouth | 14% | 7 |
| Liverpool | 13% | 7.5 |
| Wolves | 13% | 7.5 |
| Newcastle | 11% | 9 |
Spurs (52%) are the firm favourites to keep a clean sheet in GW3. After the Battle of The Bridge 2.0 last week, Antonio Conte’s defence can expect a lighter assault this time out when they take on a misfiring Wolves. Bruno Lage’s lack of a central striker significantly affects the Wolves’ attack as they have 4th worst shot conversion rate after two games played (4.5%).
This high volume of shots and low-quality finishing make Hugo Lloris a good candidate for our keeper choice of the week.
He is joined in our lineup by Ivan Perisic (£5.4m), who was impressive in his cameo off the bench against Chelsea. Spurs fans expect him to get the nod this weekend, but if you do want to play it safer, Eric Dier (£5.0) is the more reliable pick.
Joint top is Arsenal (52%), who looked good against Leicester and were perhaps a touch unlucky to concede two goals. However, the bookies expect the Gunners to keep it tighter here against a Bournemouth side who sit bottom of the table for Xg, Shots on target, big chances and minutes per chance (the list goes on).
Conversely, Arsenal have conceded just 4 shots on target in their first two games this season.
Zinchenko (£5.1m) is the pick of the bunch. His xGI of 0.5 is by far and away the most of all Arsenal defenders.
Manchester City (49%) sit at third place in the odds for this weekend when they take on Newcastle. It’s hard to say much more about the best defence in the league over the past few seasons. Guardiola’s side have conceded just two shots on target from their first two games and come up against Newcastle, while a good side under Eddie Howe are not exactly known for their attacking prowess.
Joao Cancelo seems an obvious pick again this week after picking up his first assist of the season.
Lastly, Chelsea (44%) take on Leeds, with Bamford still a doubt for the weekend. Chelsea have looked good defensively and were arguably unlucky to concede two to Spurs in Gameweek 2.
Reece James (£6.1m) is second amongst all defenders for non-penalty expected goal involvement and proved once again last weekend the attacking threat he has. He takes up the final spot in our starting XI.
To fill out the bench, I see no reason not to continue with Danny Ward (£4.0m) and Nathan Patterson of Everton (41%), who have proven to be excellent value and have good defensive fixtures this weekend.
Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 3
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.