Gameweek 30 sees a return to normality after the madness of the doubles.
For the Bookies XI this week, upfront, we see the return of the destroyer of defences (and ranks).
While at the back, some delicious differentials for those looking to replace the likes of Shaw or Saliba.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Who’s the best captain pick for gameweek 30? Find out in our roundup here
Goalscorer odds gameweek 30
| Player | Probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 63% | 1.58 | MCI | FWD |
| Ollie Watkins | 48% | 2.1 | AVL | FWD |
| Marcus Rashford | 45% | 2.2 | MUN | MID |
| Kelechi Iheanacho | 42% | 2.38 | LEI | FWD |
| Julian Alvarez | 42% | 2.38 | MCI | FWD |
| Jamie Vardy | 41% | 2.45 | LEI | FWD |
| Riyad Mahrez | 40% | 2.48 | MCI | MID |
| Mohamed Salah | 40% | 2.5 | LIV | MID |
| Callum Wilson | 40% | 2.5 | NEW | FWD |
| Harry Kane | 40% | 2.5 | TOT | FWD |
| Joao Felix | 37% | 2.7 | CHE | FWD |
| Ivan Toney | 36% | 2.75 | BRE | FWD |
| Darwin Nunez | 36% | 2.8 | LIV | FWD |
| Wout Weghorst | 35% | 2.88 | MUN | FWD |
| Gabriel Jesus | 33% | 3 | ARS | FWD |
| Kai Havertz | 33% | 3 | CHE | FWD |
| Alexander Isak | 33% | 3 | NEW | FWD |
| Patson Daka | 33% | 3.05 | LEI | FWD |
| Eddie Nketiah | 32% | 3.1 | ARS | FWD |
| Leon Bailey | 32% | 3.15 | AVL | MID |
| Patrick Bamford | 32% | 3.15 | LEE | FWD |
| James Maddison | 32% | 3.15 | LEI | MID |
| Wilfried Zaha | 31% | 3.25 | CRY | MID |
| Carlos Vinicius | 31% | 3.25 | FUL | FWD |
| Diego Jota | 31% | 3.25 | LIV | MID |
| Rodrigo | 30% | 3.3 | LEE | MID |
| Dominic Solanke | 30% | 3.35 | BOU | FWD |
| Son Heung-Min | 30% | 3.35 | TOT | MID |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 29% | 3.4 | MCI | MID |
| Evan Ferguson | 29% | 3.45 | BHA | FWD |
| Raheem Sterling | 29% | 3.5 | CHE | MID |
| Harvey Barnes | 29% | 3.5 | LEI | MID |
| Bruno Fernandes | 29% | 3.5 | MUN | MID |
| Anthony Martial | 29% | 3.5 | MUN | FWD |
| Bukayo Saka | 28% | 3.55 | ARS | MID |
| Kieffer Moore | 28% | 3.55 | BOU | FWD |
| Antony | 28% | 3.55 | MUN | MID |
| Danny Ings | 28% | 3.55 | WHU | FWD |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 27% | 3.7 | ARS | MID |
| Emiliano Buendia | 27% | 3.7 | AVL | MID |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 27% | 3.75 | CRY | FWD |
| Ilkay Gundogan | 27% | 3.75 | MCI | MID |
| Danny Welbeck | 26% | 3.8 | BHA | FWD |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 26% | 3.85 | EVE | FWD |
| Roberto Firmino | 26% | 3.85 | LIV | FWD |
| Michail Antonio | 26% | 3.9 | WHU | FWD |
| Jadon Sancho | 25% | 4 | MUN | MID |
| Richarlison | 24% | 4.1 | TOT | FWD |
| Leandro Trossard | 24% | 4.2 | ARS | MID |
| Odsonne Edouard | 24% | 4.2 | CRY | FWD |
| Cody Gakpo | 23% | 4.3 | LIV | MID |
| Alex Mac Allister | 23% | 4.4 | BHA | MID |
| Yoane Wissa | 22% | 4.5 | BRE | MID |
| Raul Jimenez | 22% | 4.5 | WOL | FWD |
| Martin Odegaard | 22% | 4.6 | ARS | MID |
| Kaoru Mitoma | 22% | 4.6 | BHA | MID |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | 22% | 4.6 | NFO | FWD |
| Jarrod Bowen | 22% | 4.6 | WHU | MID |
| Said Benrahma | 21% | 4.75 | WHU | MID |
| Christian Pulisic | 21% | 4.8 | CHE | MID |
| Bobby Reid | 21% | 4.8 | FUL | MID |
| Crysencio Summerville | 21% | 4.8 | LEE | MID |
| Matheus Cunha | 21% | 4.8 | WOL | FWD |
| Sam Surridge | 20% | 4.9 | NFO | FWD |
| Mason Mount | 20% | 5.1 | CHE | MID |
| Brennan Johnson | 19% | 5.2 | NFO | FWD |
| Neal Maupay | 19% | 5.25 | EVE | FWD |
| Solly March | 19% | 5.3 | BHA | MID |
| Bernardo Silva | 19% | 5.4 | MCI | MID |
| Daniel Podence | 19% | 5.4 | WOL | MID |
| Allan Saint-Maximin | 18% | 5.5 | NEW | MID |
| Hee-Chan Hwang | 18% | 5.5 | WOL | MID |
| Harry Wilson | 18% | 5.6 | FUL | MID |
| Andreas Pereira | 17% | 5.75 | FUL | MID |
| Jack Grealish | 17% | 5.8 | MCI | MID |
| Philip Billing | 17% | 6 | BOU | MID |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 16% | 6.25 | BRE | FWD |
| Anthony Gordon | 16% | 6.4 | NEW | MID |
| Che Adams | 15% | 6.75 | SOU | FWD |
| Mykhaylo Mudryk | 14% | 7 | CHE | MID |
| Demarai Gray | 14% | 7 | EVE | MID |
| Joe Willock | 14% | 7 | NEW | MID |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 14% | 7 | NEW | MID |
| Adam Armstrong | 13% | 7.5 | SOU | FWD |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 13% | 7.5 | TOT | MID |
| Ivan Perisic | 13% | 8 | TOT | DEF |
| Pascal Gross | 12% | 8.5 | BHA | MID |
| Reece James | 11% | 9.5 | CHE | DEF |
| Brenden Aaronson | 11% | 9.5 | LEE | MID |
| Granit Xhaka | 9% | 11.5 | ARS | MID |
| Virgil van Dijk | 7% | 14 | LIV | DEF |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 7% | 15 | LIV | DEF |
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Erling Haaland (63%) returns and with him a difficult dilemma.
Questions around budget, minutes and midweek games, have divided the community on whether the Norwegian striker is “essential” going into Gameweek 30.
Man City have scored ten goals in their last six away matches (3rd) with Haaland scoring three, one each against Arsenal, Bournemouth & Crystal Palace.
Southampton meanwhile have conceded 9 goals in their last six home games (joint 18th) and kept just one clean sheet.
Having been spotted back in training this week, we feel confident enough to stick the Man City number nine back in our team and give him the captain’s armband too.
Ollie Watkins (48%) makes for a compelling captaincy shout as well, though falls well short in terms of odds.
Ten returns in his last ten games in a run stretching back to Gameweek 21 makes the Aston Villa striker the form goal scorer in the Premier League. He’s top for shots in the box (25) and big chances (12) in that time as well.
Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, are 19th for goals conceded away from home (34), keeping just two clean sheets in 14 matches.
Marcus Rashford (45%) returned to the score sheet on Wednesday at home to Brentford as he bagged the only goal of the game.
He now has 19 attacking returns for the season and will fancy his chances of adding to that this weekend when he takes on an Everton side who have conceded two or more goals in their last five away games.
Looking like the only one likely to score for the Red Devils at the moment Rashford remains in our XI this weekend.
Mohammed Salah (40%) had a mixed double gameweek 29 as he opened the scoring away at Man City before being benched against Chelsea.
Surely, the prolific striker will return to the lineup for the visit of title-chasing Arsenal this weekend at Anfield.
Boasting four goals and two assists in his last four games at home to Arsenal, Salah is worth a place in our XI this week.
Callum Wilson (40%) showed his worth after a benching vs Man United, scoring a brace away at West Ham on Wednesday and cementing a 19-point haul and his place as “King of the Gameweek.
This week he takes on Brentford away from home, a team the Magpies beat 5-1 in the reverse fixture.
Though unlikely to be that easy again, he’s a decent pick at £6.9m and just 2.9% ownership.
James Maddison (32%) feels more like a pick in hope rather than expectation this gameweek, though the bookies do fancy him for a goal. Bournemouth are 20th in the league for expected goals conceded at home (21.83) this season.
Our bench this week is Leon Bailey (32%) who plays at home to Forest and Andreas Pereira (17%) who had a nice goal last week and should be on penalties with Mitrovic suspended for the next eight games.
Clean sheet odds gameweek 30
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Man City | 56% | 1.78 |
| Man Utd | 48% | 2.07 |
| Aston Villa | 47% | 2.15 |
| Chelsea | 43% | 2.3 |
| Leeds | 40% | 2.5 |
| Leicester | 40% | 2.5 |
| Newcastle | 38% | 2.63 |
| Fulham | 33% | 3 |
| West Ham | 33% | 3 |
| Southampton | 33% | 3.05 |
| Tottenham | 29% | 3.45 |
| Brighton | 29% | 3.5 |
| Arsenal | 27% | 3.7 |
| Crystal Palace | 27% | 3.7 |
| Brentford | 26% | 3.9 |
| Wolves | 26% | 3.9 |
| Liverpool | 24% | 4.1 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19% | 5.25 |
| Bournemouth | 15% | 6.5 |
| Everton | 9% | 11 |
Man City (56%) also top the billing for clean sheet odds heading into Gameweek 30. Pep Guardiola’s men have conceded the fewest big chances (35) as well as the lowest expected goals (22.31) so far this season with those numbers starting to bear fruit recently, with two clean sheets in their last three.
Since Ruben Selles took over at Southampton in Gameweek 24, the Saints are 18th for expected goals from open play (4.22) while scoring just one goal from open play in their last five games.
Ederson is the safest pick in terms of minutes and he is joined by John Stones who had an impressive display against Liverpool often dropping into play in midfield.
Man United (48%) have three clean sheets in their last three games as they welcome an Everton side who have failed to score away from home in three of their last five games on the road.
In fact Everton are 16th for expected goals from open play since Sean Dyche took over in Gameweek 22.
Diogo Dalot looks a good choice with question marks over the left-back position and the centre-backs having little upside. The right-back got into some advanced positions in midweek and with Everton sitting back, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to go forward this weekend as well.
Aston Villa (47%) now have four clean sheets in their last six games as Unai Emery’s men threaten an assault on the Premier League’s European places.
They welcome Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 30 who have started to slide the other way, now winless in eight games. Their away form has been dismal as well, as they sit bottom of the league for goals scored away from home this season with just five goals scored in 14 away matches.
Ashley Young seems assured of his starting place with Matty Cash out injured. The former United full-back got forward quite a bit against Leicester and seems a great differential punt at just 0.6% owned.
Chelsea (43%) managed their first clean sheet in four games after Graham Potter was sacked in the middle of double gameweek 29, though that may have had more to do with a poor Liverpool performance.
Frank Lampard now returns and takes his side to Wolves who have just one win in their last seven games and sit 18th for expected goals since Lopetegui took over in Gameweek 17.
Ben Chilwell came out with eight points from his performance against Liverpool, making three key passes and creating one big chance. His points potential at both ends of the pitch makes him too tempting to turn down for us this week.
On the bench in defence for us this week is Daniel Iversen (£3.8m) and Timothy Castagne (£4.4M) both of Leicester (40%).
Who’s the best captain pick for gameweek 30? Find out in our roundup here
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Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here