With favourable fixtures for the so-called “Big Six,” our biggest problem this week is fitting everyone into the starting 11. This is no time to get fancy, making the obvious moves for good players on good teams should be a priority this Gameweek.
Who’s the best captain pick for gameweek 31? Find out in our roundup here
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Goalscorer odds gameweek 31
Player | Probability | Odds | Team | Position |
Erling Haaland | 71% | 1.41 | MCI | FWD |
Harry Kane | 55% | 1.83 | TOT | FWD |
Julian Alvarez | 52% | 1.94 | MCI | FWD |
Mohamed Salah | 49% | 2.04 | LIV | MID |
Darwin Nunez | 45% | 2.2 | LIV | FWD |
Gabriel Jesus | 42% | 2.4 | ARS | FWD |
Son Heung-Min | 41% | 2.45 | TOT | MID |
Callum Wilson | 40% | 2.5 | NEW | FWD |
Riyad Mahrez | 38% | 2.6 | MCI | MID |
Diego Jota | 38% | 2.65 | LIV | MID |
Ivan Toney | 37% | 2.7 | BRE | FWD |
Alexander Isak | 36% | 2.8 | NEW | FWD |
Joao Felix | 34% | 2.9 | CHE | FWD |
Wout Weghorst | 34% | 2.9 | MUN | FWD |
Bukayo Saka | 34% | 2.95 | ARS | MID |
Gabriel Martinelli | 34% | 2.95 | ARS | MID |
Richarlison | 34% | 2.95 | TOT | FWD |
Roberto Firmino | 33% | 3.05 | LIV | FWD |
Ilkay Gundogan | 33% | 3.05 | MCI | MID |
Odsonne Edouard | 32% | 3.1 | CRY | FWD |
Cody Gakpo | 32% | 3.1 | LIV | MID |
Bruno Fernandes | 32% | 3.1 | MUN | MID |
Kevin De Bruyne | 32% | 3.15 | MCI | MID |
Ollie Watkins | 31% | 3.2 | AVL | FWD |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 30% | 3.3 | CRY | FWD |
Anthony Martial | 30% | 3.3 | MUN | FWD |
Evan Ferguson | 30% | 3.35 | BHA | FWD |
Neal Maupay | 30% | 3.35 | EVE | FWD |
Antony | 30% | 3.35 | MUN | MID |
Kai Havertz | 29% | 3.4 | CHE | FWD |
Dominic Solanke | 28% | 3.55 | BOU | FWD |
Leandro Trossard | 27% | 3.65 | ARS | MID |
Kaoru Mitoma | 27% | 3.7 | BHA | MID |
Carlos Vinicius | 27% | 3.7 | FUL | FWD |
Jadon Sancho | 27% | 3.7 | MUN | MID |
Raul Jimenez | 27% | 3.75 | WOL | FWD |
Danny Welbeck | 26% | 3.8 | BHA | FWD |
Martin Odegaard | 26% | 3.9 | ARS | MID |
Demarai Gray | 26% | 3.9 | EVE | MID |
Patrick Bamford | 26% | 3.9 | LEE | FWD |
Adam Armstrong | 25% | 3.95 | SOU | FWD |
Matheus Cunha | 25% | 3.95 | WOL | FWD |
Raheem Sterling | 25% | 4 | CHE | MID |
Che Adams | 25% | 4 | SOU | FWD |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 25% | 4 | WOL | MID |
Rodrigo | 24% | 4.1 | LEE | MID |
Taiwo Awoniyi | 24% | 4.1 | NFO | FWD |
Bernardo Silva | 24% | 4.2 | MCI | MID |
Jack Grealish | 24% | 4.2 | MCI | MID |
Alex Mac Allister | 24% | 4.25 | BHA | MID |
Daniel Podence | 23% | 4.35 | WOL | MID |
Diego Costa | 23% | 4.35 | WOL | FWD |
Danny Ings | 22% | 4.5 | WHU | FWD |
Brennan Johnson | 22% | 4.6 | NFO | FWD |
Christian Pulisic | 21% | 4.8 | CHE | MID |
Christian Eriksen | 21% | 4.8 | MUN | MID |
Joe Willock | 20% | 4.9 | NEW | MID |
Solly March | 20% | 5 | BHA | MID |
Yoane Wissa | 20% | 5 | BRE | MID |
Andreas Pereira | 19% | 5.25 | FUL | MID |
Kelechi Iheanacho | 19% | 5.25 | LEI | FWD |
Dejan Kulusevski | 19% | 5.3 | TOT | MID |
Emiliano Buendia | 19% | 5.4 | AVL | MID |
Jamie Vardy | 19% | 5.4 | LEI | FWD |
Mason Mount | 18% | 5.6 | CHE | MID |
Jarrod Bowen | 18% | 5.6 | WHU | MID |
Michail Antonio | 17% | 5.75 | WHU | FWD |
Crysencio Summerville | 17% | 5.8 | LEE | MID |
Wilfred Gnonto | 17% | 6 | LEE | MID |
Bobby Reid | 16% | 6.1 | FUL | MID |
James Maddison | 16% | 6.25 | LEI | MID |
Ivan Perisic | 16% | 6.25 | TOT | DEF |
Said Benrahma | 16% | 6.25 | WHU | MID |
Bryan Mbeumo | 16% | 6.4 | BRE | FWD |
Patson Daka | 16% | 6.4 | LEI | FWD |
Harry Wilson | 15% | 6.5 | FUL | MID |
Harvey Barnes | 15% | 6.75 | LEI | MID |
Anthony Gordon | 15% | 6.75 | NEW | MID |
Pascal Gross | 14% | 7 | BHA | MID |
Philip Billing | 14% | 7 | BOU | MID |
Mykhaylo Mudryk | 13% | 7.5 | CHE | MID |
Bruno Guimaraes | 13% | 7.5 | NEW | MID |
Reece James | 11% | 9.5 | CHE | DEF |
Virgil van Dijk | 9% | 11 | LIV | DEF |
Brenden Aaronson | 9% | 11.5 | LEE | MID |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 8% | 13 | LIV | DEF |
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In Gameweek 30, Erling Haaland (71%) showed once again why he is the top scorer in the Fantasy (and genuine) Premier League.
The Norwegian netted a brace at Southampton to sink the Saints and take his tally to 30 goals in 26 starts, putting Mo Salah’s record 34 goals in a Premier League season under serious threat.
This week he welcomes a Leicester City side in free fall, bottom of the table since the World Cup, conceding 27 goals in 15 games and keeping zero clean sheets in that time.
Haaland captaincy is the easiest decision you’ll make all season.
Harry Kane (55%) continues to defy the inherent mediocrity of this Spurs team as he bagged a goal last week against Brighton after being thoroughly outplayed for 80 minutes.
That made it five returns in his last four games, his consistency this season has been unmatched and has him sitting at second highest points scorer in FPL.
This week he takes on Bournemouth, buoyed by recent good results against fellow relegation strugglers but who have found it tough against “Big Six” opposition this season, conceding 31 goals in nine games.
Kane only needs one chance to score and he should have plenty more than one in this game.
Mohammed Salah (49%) owners were desperately unlucky last weekend as the Egyptian winger posted his highest ever expected goals (xG) tally 2.15 as he missed a penalty and had a shot clawed out of the corner by Ramsdale in a brilliant game at Anfield.
This Monday night he takes on a Leeds side who were taken apart by Crystal Palace in Gameweek 30, conceding five goals. Michael Olise had a double digit return and given that Salah operates on the same wing, he looks an obvious danger this gameweek.
Cody Gakpo (32%) joins his Liverpool team mate in an attacking double up, such is the Bookies lack of confidence in the Leeds defence. Leeds have conceded ten goals in their last six games as they look rudderless under new management.
Gabriel Jesus (42%) continued his return to form at Liverpool in Gameweek 30, scoring Arsenal’s second. The Brazilian now has three goals in his last two starts since his injury and looks to be back to his best.
He is joined by teammate and fellow Brazilian, Gabriel Martinelli (34%), who looked so good together at the start of the season and that showed last weekend with Martinelli getting a goal for himself before assisting Jesus.
West Ham’s defensive numbers have been firmly mid-table all season and with Arsenal’s front three grabbing a goal each in the return fixture, don’t be surprised to see lightning strike twice.
Our bench this week consists of Andreas Pereira (19%), on penalties with Mitrovic still suspended, as well as Jacob Murphy (£4.1m) who makes a decent enabler at his price.
Clean sheet odds gameweek 31
Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
Man City | 54% | 1.86 |
Tottenham | 47% | 2.14 |
Arsenal | 47% | 2.15 |
Man Utd | 44% | 2.28 |
Everton | 40% | 2.48 |
Newcastle | 38% | 2.6 |
Wolves | 38% | 2.65 |
Liverpool | 37% | 2.7 |
Crystal Palace | 35% | 2.85 |
Southampton | 34% | 2.95 |
Brentford | 32% | 3.1 |
Chelsea | 30% | 3.3 |
Brighton | 29% | 3.4 |
Fulham | 27% | 3.75 |
Aston Villa | 25% | 3.95 |
Nottingham Forest | 19% | 5.4 |
West Ham | 17% | 5.8 |
Leeds | 16% | 6.1 |
Bournemouth | 14% | 7 |
Leicester | 11% | 9 |
Man City (54%) continue to defy the odds and statistics in their ability to concede goals in games in which they are utterly dominant, conceding a goal from an xG of just 0.41 against Southampton in what was their only shot on target in the game.
In fact in their last two games, they have conceded from the only shot on target in the game.
This weekend they welcome Leicester, who looked really poor as they failed to score against Bournemouth in Gameweek 30 and now under new management who will no doubt favour a defensive approach with limited attacking threat.
A defensive double up of Ederson and Nathan Ake seems like a decent choice, Leicester tend to struggle from corners and set-pieces and these are areas where Nathan Ake can pose somewhat of a goal threat.
Arsenal (47%) are another team that have been throwing away what look like easy clean sheets in recent weeks, conceding to both Palace and Leeds when they were 3-0 up and cruising.
West Ham, however, have the opposite problem. Though goal scoring at home has been better of late, the fixtures have been kind, and the Hammers sit firmly mid-table for xG (6.17) from open play in their last six at home (11th).
Ben White has the highest expected goal involvement of any Arsenal defender over the last six gameweeks (1.48) scoring two goals and creating one assist so he seems the most obvious choice.
Spurs (47%) may seem a surprise inclusion as they are without a clean sheet in five games going into Gameweek 31. Despite this, their underlying defensive numbers are good, conceding just four goals in their last six home matches (5th).
They host Bournemouth this weekend who have been held scoreless in three of their last six away games in the league. The Cherry’s have just four goals from their last six games of the road and the Bookies expect this trend to continue this weekend.
Pedro Porro seems the most lively of the Spurs defenders, he’s top amongst all defenders for shots in the last six game weeks, as well as being 3rd for xGI. At just 0.8% owned, he could prove an explosive differential.
Lastly, Manchester United (44%) have been defensively very solid of late (apart from that one game), keeping five clean sheets in their last seven games.
This gameweek they travel to Nottingham Forest who have been struggling for goals of late as they sit 14th for open play xG in their last six home games.
Tyrell Malacia seems assured of his spot, with Luke Shaw still on the physio table. He had a good game last week, with two shots and a key pass. At just £4.2m, he makes a decent differential punt.
Our bench in defence this week consists of Daniel Iversen (£3.8m) and Toti Gomes (£3.8m) of Wolves (38%).
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Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here