Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 31

With favourable fixtures for the so-called “Big Six,” our biggest problem this week is fitting everyone into the starting 11. This is no time to get fancy, making the obvious moves for good players on good teams should be a priority this Gameweek.

Who’s the best captain pick for gameweek 31? Find out in our roundup here

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscorer odds gameweek 31

Erling Haaland71%1.41MCIFWD
Harry Kane55%1.83TOTFWD
Julian Alvarez52%1.94MCIFWD
Mohamed Salah49%2.04LIVMID
Darwin Nunez45%2.2LIVFWD
Gabriel Jesus42%2.4ARSFWD
Son Heung-Min41%2.45TOTMID
Callum Wilson40%2.5NEWFWD
Riyad Mahrez38%2.6MCIMID
Diego Jota38%2.65LIVMID
Ivan Toney37%2.7BREFWD
Alexander Isak36%2.8NEWFWD
Joao Felix34%2.9CHEFWD
Wout Weghorst34%2.9MUNFWD
Bukayo Saka34%2.95ARSMID
Gabriel Martinelli34%2.95ARSMID
Roberto Firmino33%3.05LIVFWD
Ilkay Gundogan33%3.05MCIMID
Odsonne Edouard32%3.1CRYFWD
Cody Gakpo32%3.1LIVMID
Bruno Fernandes32%3.1MUNMID
Kevin De Bruyne32%3.15MCIMID
Ollie Watkins31%3.2AVLFWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta30%3.3CRYFWD
Anthony Martial30%3.3MUNFWD
Evan Ferguson30%3.35BHAFWD
Neal Maupay30%3.35EVEFWD
Kai Havertz29%3.4CHEFWD
Dominic Solanke28%3.55BOUFWD
Leandro Trossard27%3.65ARSMID
Kaoru Mitoma27%3.7BHAMID
Carlos Vinicius27%3.7FULFWD
Jadon Sancho27%3.7MUNMID
Raul Jimenez27%3.75WOLFWD
Danny Welbeck26%3.8BHAFWD
Martin Odegaard26%3.9ARSMID
Demarai Gray26%3.9EVEMID
Patrick Bamford26%3.9LEEFWD
Adam Armstrong25%3.95SOUFWD
Matheus Cunha25%3.95WOLFWD
Raheem Sterling25%4CHEMID
Che Adams25%4SOUFWD
Hee-Chan Hwang25%4WOLMID
Taiwo Awoniyi24%4.1NFOFWD
Bernardo Silva24%4.2MCIMID
Jack Grealish24%4.2MCIMID
Alex Mac Allister24%4.25BHAMID
Daniel Podence23%4.35WOLMID
Diego Costa23%4.35WOLFWD
Danny Ings22%4.5WHUFWD
Brennan Johnson22%4.6NFOFWD
Christian Pulisic21%4.8CHEMID
Christian Eriksen21%4.8MUNMID
Joe Willock20%4.9NEWMID
Solly March20%5BHAMID
Yoane Wissa20%5BREMID
Andreas Pereira19%5.25FULMID
Kelechi Iheanacho19%5.25LEIFWD
Dejan Kulusevski19%5.3TOTMID
Emiliano Buendia19%5.4AVLMID
Jamie Vardy19%5.4LEIFWD
Mason Mount18%5.6CHEMID
Jarrod Bowen18%5.6WHUMID
Michail Antonio17%5.75WHUFWD
Crysencio Summerville17%5.8LEEMID
Wilfred Gnonto17%6LEEMID
Bobby Reid16%6.1FULMID
James Maddison16%6.25LEIMID
Ivan Perisic16%6.25TOTDEF
Said Benrahma16%6.25WHUMID
Bryan Mbeumo16%6.4BREFWD
Patson Daka16%6.4LEIFWD
Harry Wilson15%6.5FULMID
Harvey Barnes15%6.75LEIMID
Anthony Gordon15%6.75NEWMID
Pascal Gross14%7BHAMID
Philip Billing14%7BOUMID
Mykhaylo Mudryk13%7.5CHEMID
Bruno Guimaraes13%7.5NEWMID
Reece James11%9.5CHEDEF
Virgil van Dijk9%11LIVDEF
Brenden Aaronson9%11.5LEEMID
Trent Alexander-Arnold8%13LIVDEF
Goalscorer odds gameweek 31

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In Gameweek 30, Erling Haaland (71%) showed once again why he is the top scorer in the Fantasy (and genuine) Premier League.
The Norwegian netted a brace at Southampton to sink the Saints and take his tally to 30 goals in 26 starts, putting Mo Salah’s record 34 goals in a Premier League season under serious threat.
This week he welcomes a Leicester City side in free fall, bottom of the table since the World Cup, conceding 27 goals in 15 games and keeping zero clean sheets in that time.
Haaland captaincy is the easiest decision you’ll make all season.

Harry Kane (55%) continues to defy the inherent mediocrity of this Spurs team as he bagged a goal last week against Brighton after being thoroughly outplayed for 80 minutes.
That made it five returns in his last four games, his consistency this season has been unmatched and has him sitting at second highest points scorer in FPL.
This week he takes on Bournemouth, buoyed by recent good results against fellow relegation strugglers but who have found it tough against “Big Six” opposition this season, conceding 31 goals in nine games.
Kane only needs one chance to score and he should have plenty more than one in this game.

Mohammed Salah (49%) owners were desperately unlucky last weekend as the Egyptian winger posted his highest ever expected goals (xG) tally 2.15 as he missed a penalty and had a shot clawed out of the corner by Ramsdale in a brilliant game at Anfield.
This Monday night he takes on a Leeds side who were taken apart by Crystal Palace in Gameweek 30, conceding five goals. Michael Olise had a double digit return and given that Salah operates on the same wing, he looks an obvious danger this gameweek.

Cody Gakpo (32%) joins his Liverpool team mate in an attacking double up, such is the Bookies lack of confidence in the Leeds defence. Leeds have conceded ten goals in their last six games as they look rudderless under new management.

Gabriel Jesus (42%) continued his return to form at Liverpool in Gameweek 30, scoring Arsenal’s second. The Brazilian now has three goals in his last two starts since his injury and looks to be back to his best.
He is joined by teammate and fellow Brazilian, Gabriel Martinelli (34%), who looked so good together at the start of the season and that showed last weekend with Martinelli getting a goal for himself before assisting Jesus.
West Ham’s defensive numbers have been firmly mid-table all season and with Arsenal’s front three grabbing a goal each in the return fixture, don’t be surprised to see lightning strike twice.

Our bench this week consists of Andreas Pereira (19%), on penalties with Mitrovic still suspended, as well as Jacob Murphy (£4.1m) who makes a decent enabler at his price.

Clean sheet odds gameweek 31

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City54%1.86
Man Utd44%2.28
Crystal Palace35%2.85
Aston Villa25%3.95
Nottingham Forest19%5.4
West Ham17%5.8
Clean sheet gameweek 31

Man City (54%) continue to defy the odds and statistics in their ability to concede goals in games in which they are utterly dominant, conceding a goal from an xG of just 0.41 against Southampton in what was their only shot on target in the game.
In fact in their last two games, they have conceded from the only shot on target in the game.
This weekend they welcome Leicester, who looked really poor as they failed to score against Bournemouth in Gameweek 30 and now under new management who will no doubt favour a defensive approach with limited attacking threat.
A defensive double up of Ederson and Nathan Ake seems like a decent choice, Leicester tend to struggle from corners and set-pieces and these are areas where Nathan Ake can pose somewhat of a goal threat.

Arsenal (47%) are another team that have been throwing away what look like easy clean sheets in recent weeks, conceding to both Palace and Leeds when they were 3-0 up and cruising.
West Ham, however, have the opposite problem. Though goal scoring at home has been better of late, the fixtures have been kind, and the Hammers sit firmly mid-table for xG (6.17) from open play in their last six at home (11th).
Ben White has the highest expected goal involvement of any Arsenal defender over the last six gameweeks (1.48) scoring two goals and creating one assist so he seems the most obvious choice.

Spurs (47%) may seem a surprise inclusion as they are without a clean sheet in five games going into Gameweek 31. Despite this, their underlying defensive numbers are good, conceding just four goals in their last six home matches (5th).
They host Bournemouth this weekend who have been held scoreless in three of their last six away games in the league. The Cherry’s have just four goals from their last six games of the road and the Bookies expect this trend to continue this weekend.
Pedro Porro seems the most lively of the Spurs defenders, he’s top amongst all defenders for shots in the last six game weeks, as well as being 3rd for xGI. At just 0.8% owned, he could prove an explosive differential.

Lastly, Manchester United (44%) have been defensively very solid of late (apart from that one game), keeping five clean sheets in their last seven games.
This gameweek they travel to Nottingham Forest who have been struggling for goals of late as they sit 14th for open play xG in their last six home games.
Tyrell Malacia seems assured of his spot, with Luke Shaw still on the physio table. He had a good game last week, with two shots and a key pass. At just £4.2m, he makes a decent differential punt.

Our bench in defence this week consists of Daniel Iversen (£3.8m) and Toti Gomes (£3.8m) of Wolves (38%).

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Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here