Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 31

With favourable fixtures for the so-called “Big Six,” our biggest problem this week is fitting everyone into the starting 11. This is no time to get fancy, making the obvious moves for good players on good teams should be a priority this Gameweek.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Player	Probability	Odds	Team	Position
Erling Haaland	71%	1.41	MCI	FWD
Harry Kane	55%	1.83	TOT	FWD
Julian Alvarez	52%	1.94	MCI	FWD
Mohamed Salah	49%	2.04	LIV	MID
Darwin Nunez	45%	2.2	LIV	FWD
Gabriel Jesus	42%	2.4	ARS	FWD
Son Heung-Min	41%	2.45	TOT	MID
Callum Wilson	40%	2.5	NEW	FWD
Riyad Mahrez	38%	2.6	MCI	MID
Diego Jota	38%	2.65	LIV	MID
Ivan Toney	37%	2.7	BRE	FWD
Alexander Isak	36%	2.8	NEW	FWD
Joao Felix	34%	2.9	CHE	FWD
Wout Weghorst	34%	2.9	MUN	FWD
Bukayo Saka	34%	2.95	ARS	MID
Gabriel Martinelli	34%	2.95	ARS	MID
Richarlison	34%	2.95	TOT	FWD
Roberto Firmino	33%	3.05	LIV	FWD
Ilkay Gundogan	33%	3.05	MCI	MID
Odsonne Edouard	32%	3.1	CRY	FWD
Cody Gakpo	32%	3.1	LIV	MID
Bruno Fernandes	32%	3.1	MUN	MID
Kevin De Bruyne	32%	3.15	MCI	MID
Ollie Watkins	31%	3.2	AVL	FWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta	30%	3.3	CRY	FWD
Anthony Martial	30%	3.3	MUN	FWD
Evan Ferguson	30%	3.35	BHA	FWD
Neal Maupay	30%	3.35	EVE	FWD
Antony	30%	3.35	MUN	MID
Kai Havertz	29%	3.4	CHE	FWD
Dominic Solanke	28%	3.55	BOU	FWD
Leandro Trossard	27%	3.65	ARS	MID
Kaoru Mitoma	27%	3.7	BHA	MID
Carlos Vinicius	27%	3.7	FUL	FWD
Jadon Sancho	27%	3.7	MUN	MID
Raul Jimenez	27%	3.75	WOL	FWD
Danny Welbeck	26%	3.8	BHA	FWD
Martin Odegaard	26%	3.9	ARS	MID
Demarai Gray	26%	3.9	EVE	MID
Patrick Bamford	26%	3.9	LEE	FWD
Adam Armstrong	25%	3.95	SOU	FWD
Matheus Cunha	25%	3.95	WOL	FWD
Raheem Sterling	25%	4	CHE	MID
Che Adams	25%	4	SOU	FWD
Hee-Chan Hwang	25%	4	WOL	MID
Rodrigo	24%	4.1	LEE	MID
Taiwo Awoniyi	24%	4.1	NFO	FWD
Bernardo Silva	24%	4.2	MCI	MID
Jack Grealish	24%	4.2	MCI	MID
Alex Mac Allister	24%	4.25	BHA	MID
Daniel Podence	23%	4.35	WOL	MID
Diego Costa	23%	4.35	WOL	FWD
Danny Ings	22%	4.5	WHU	FWD
Brennan Johnson	22%	4.6	NFO	FWD
Christian Pulisic	21%	4.8	CHE	MID
Christian Eriksen	21%	4.8	MUN	MID
Joe Willock	20%	4.9	NEW	MID
Solly March	20%	5	BHA	MID
Yoane Wissa	20%	5	BRE	MID
Andreas Pereira	19%	5.25	FUL	MID
Kelechi Iheanacho	19%	5.25	LEI	FWD
Dejan Kulusevski	19%	5.3	TOT	MID
Emiliano Buendia	19%	5.4	AVL	MID
Jamie Vardy	19%	5.4	LEI	FWD
Mason Mount	18%	5.6	CHE	MID
Jarrod Bowen	18%	5.6	WHU	MID
Michail Antonio	17%	5.75	WHU	FWD
Crysencio Summerville	17%	5.8	LEE	MID
Wilfred Gnonto	17%	6	LEE	MID
Bobby Reid	16%	6.1	FUL	MID
James Maddison	16%	6.25	LEI	MID
Ivan Perisic	16%	6.25	TOT	DEF
Said Benrahma	16%	6.25	WHU	MID
Bryan Mbeumo	16%	6.4	BRE	FWD
Patson Daka	16%	6.4	LEI	FWD
Harry Wilson	15%	6.5	FUL	MID
Harvey Barnes	15%	6.75	LEI	MID
Anthony Gordon	15%	6.75	NEW	MID
Pascal Gross	14%	7	BHA	MID
Philip Billing	14%	7	BOU	MID
Mykhaylo Mudryk	13%	7.5	CHE	MID
Bruno Guimaraes	13%	7.5	NEW	MID
Reece James	11%	9.5	CHE	DEF
Virgil van Dijk	9%	11	LIV	DEF
Brenden Aaronson	9%	11.5	LEE	MID
Trent Alexander-Arnold	8%	13	LIV	DEF

In Gameweek 30, Erling Haaland (71%) showed once again why he is the top scorer in the Fantasy (and genuine) Premier League.
The Norwegian netted a brace at Southampton to sink the Saints and take his tally to 30 goals in 26 starts, putting Mo Salah’s record 34 goals in a Premier League season under serious threat.
This week he welcomes a Leicester City side in free fall, bottom of the table since the World Cup, conceding 27 goals in 15 games and keeping zero clean sheets in that time.
Haaland captaincy is the easiest decision you’ll make all season.

Harry Kane (55%) continues to defy the inherent mediocrity of this Spurs team as he bagged a goal last week against Brighton after being thoroughly outplayed for 80 minutes.
That made it five returns in his last four games, his consistency this season has been unmatched and has him sitting at second highest points scorer in FPL.
This week he takes on Bournemouth, buoyed by recent good results against fellow relegation strugglers but who have found it tough against “Big Six” opposition this season, conceding 31 goals in nine games.
Kane only needs one chance to score and he should have plenty more than one in this game.

Mohammed Salah (49%) owners were desperately unlucky last weekend as the Egyptian winger posted his highest ever expected goals (xG) tally 2.15 as he missed a penalty and had a shot clawed out of the corner by Ramsdale in a brilliant game at Anfield.
This Monday night he takes on a Leeds side who were taken apart by Crystal Palace in Gameweek 30, conceding five goals. Michael Olise had a double digit return and given that Salah operates on the same wing, he looks an obvious danger this gameweek.

Cody Gakpo (32%) joins his Liverpool team mate in an attacking double up, such is the Bookies lack of confidence in the Leeds defence. Leeds have conceded ten goals in their last six games as they look rudderless under new management.

Gabriel Jesus (42%) continued his return to form at Liverpool in Gameweek 30, scoring Arsenal’s second. The Brazilian now has three goals in his last two starts since his injury and looks to be back to his best.
He is joined by teammate and fellow Brazilian, Gabriel Martinelli (34%), who looked so good together at the start of the season and that showed last weekend with Martinelli getting a goal for himself before assisting Jesus.
West Ham’s defensive numbers have been firmly mid-table all season and with Arsenal’s front three grabbing a goal each in the return fixture, don’t be surprised to see lightning strike twice.

Our bench this week consists of Andreas Pereira (19%), on penalties with Mitrovic still suspended, as well as Jacob Murphy (£4.1m) who makes a decent enabler at his price.

Team	Clean Sheet Probability	Odds
Man City	54%	1.86
Tottenham	47%	2.14
Arsenal	47%	2.15
Man Utd	44%	2.28
Everton	40%	2.48
Newcastle	38%	2.6
Wolves	38%	2.65
Liverpool	37%	2.7
Crystal Palace	35%	2.85
Southampton	34%	2.95
Brentford	32%	3.1
Chelsea	30%	3.3
Brighton	29%	3.4
Fulham	27%	3.75
Aston Villa	25%	3.95
Nottingham Forest	19%	5.4
West Ham	17%	5.8
Leeds	16%	6.1
Bournemouth	14%	7
Leicester	11%	9

Man City (54%) continue to defy the odds and statistics in their ability to concede goals in games in which they are utterly dominant, conceding a goal from an xG of just 0.41 against Southampton in what was their only shot on target in the game.
In fact in their last two games, they have conceded from the only shot on target in the game.
This weekend they welcome Leicester, who looked really poor as they failed to score against Bournemouth in Gameweek 30 and now under new management who will no doubt favour a defensive approach with limited attacking threat.
A defensive double up of Ederson and Nathan Ake seems like a decent choice, Leicester tend to struggle from corners and set-pieces and these are areas where Nathan Ake can pose somewhat of a goal threat.

Arsenal (47%) are another team that have been throwing away what look like easy clean sheets in recent weeks, conceding to both Palace and Leeds when they were 3-0 up and cruising.
West Ham, however, have the opposite problem. Though goal scoring at home has been better of late, the fixtures have been kind, and the Hammers sit firmly mid-table for xG (6.17) from open play in their last six at home (11th).
Ben White has the highest expected goal involvement of any Arsenal defender over the last six gameweeks (1.48) scoring two goals and creating one assist so he seems the most obvious choice.

Spurs (47%) may seem a surprise inclusion as they are without a clean sheet in five games going into Gameweek 31. Despite this, their underlying defensive numbers are good, conceding just four goals in their last six home matches (5th).
They host Bournemouth this weekend who have been held scoreless in three of their last six away games in the league. The Cherry’s have just four goals from their last six games of the road and the Bookies expect this trend to continue this weekend.
Pedro Porro seems the most lively of the Spurs defenders, he’s top amongst all defenders for shots in the last six game weeks, as well as being 3rd for xGI. At just 0.8% owned, he could prove an explosive differential.

Lastly, Manchester United (44%) have been defensively very solid of late (apart from that one game), keeping five clean sheets in their last seven games.
This gameweek they travel to Nottingham Forest who have been struggling for goals of late as they sit 14th for open play xG in their last six home games.
Tyrell Malacia seems assured of his spot, with Luke Shaw still on the physio table. He had a good game last week, with two shots and a key pass. At just £4.2m, he makes a decent differential punt.

Our bench in defence this week consists of Daniel Iversen (£3.8m) and Toti Gomes (£3.8m) of Wolves (38%).

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here