With so many FPL managers playing the Free Hit chip, the Bookies Advantage XI provides a great template for how to attack the gameweek.
A few riskier picks in our attack this week are complemented by some safe bets, as we try to maximise our points for one week only.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Who’s the best captain pick for gameweek 32? Find out in our roundup here
Goalscorer odds Gameweek 32
| Player | Probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Mohamed Salah | 57% | 1.76 | LIV | MID |
| Darwin Nunez | 54% | 1.86 | LIV | FWD |
| Gabriel Jesus | 52% | 1.92 | ARS | FWD |
| Eddie Nketiah | 45% | 2.2 | ARS | FWD |
| Diego Jota | 45% | 2.2 | LIV | MID |
| Callum Wilson | 43% | 2.3 | NEW | FWD |
| Ivan Toney | 43% | 2.35 | BRE | FWD |
| Bukayo Saka | 42% | 2.4 | ARS | MID |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 42% | 2.4 | ARS | MID |
| Roberto Firmino | 40% | 2.48 | LIV | FWD |
| Cody Gakpo | 40% | 2.5 | LIV | MID |
| Alexander Isak | 39% | 2.55 | NEW | FWD |
| Ollie Watkins | 37% | 2.7 | AVL | FWD |
| Harry Kane | 36% | 2.75 | TOT | FWD |
| Odsonne Edouard | 36% | 2.8 | CRY | FWD |
| Carlos Vinicius | 36% | 2.8 | FUL | FWD |
| Martin Odegaard | 32% | 3.05 | ARS | MID |
| Kelechi Iheanacho | 32% | 3.1 | LEI | FWD |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 32% | 3.15 | CRY | FWD |
| Dominic Solanke | 31% | 3.2 | BOU | FWD |
| Leandro Trossard | 31% | 3.25 | ARS | MID |
| Jamie Vardy | 30% | 3.3 | LEI | FWD |
| Danny Ings | 30% | 3.35 | WHU | FWD |
| James Maddison | 29% | 3.5 | LEI | MID |
| Kieffer Moore | 28% | 3.55 | BOU | FWD |
| Yoane Wissa | 27% | 3.75 | BRE | MID |
| Rodrigo | 27% | 3.75 | LEE | MID |
| Patson Daka | 26% | 3.9 | LEI | FWD |
| Michail Antonio | 26% | 3.9 | WHU | FWD |
| Raul Jimenez | 26% | 3.9 | WOL | FWD |
| Patrick Bamford | 25% | 3.95 | LEE | FWD |
| Son Heung-Min | 25% | 3.95 | TOT | MID |
| Harvey Barnes | 25% | 4 | LEI | MID |
| Leon Bailey | 24% | 4.1 | AVL | MID |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 24% | 4.1 | EVE | FWD |
| Andreas Pereira | 24% | 4.1 | FUL | MID |
| Jarrod Bowen | 24% | 4.25 | WHU | MID |
| Daniel Podence | 24% | 4.25 | WOL | MID |
| Bobby Reid | 23% | 4.4 | FUL | MID |
| Hee-Chan Hwang | 22% | 4.5 | WOL | MID |
| Emiliano Buendia | 21% | 4.8 | AVL | MID |
| Eberechi Eze | 21% | 4.8 | CRY | MID |
| Matheus Cunha | 21% | 4.8 | WOL | FWD |
| Philippe Coutinho | 20% | 5 | AVL | MID |
| Harry Wilson | 20% | 5 | FUL | MID |
| Jordan Ayew | 20% | 5.1 | CRY | MID |
| Said Benrahma | 20% | 5.1 | WHU | MID |
| Philip Billing | 19% | 5.2 | BOU | MID |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 19% | 5.25 | BRE | FWD |
| Joe Willock | 19% | 5.25 | NEW | MID |
| Michael Olise | 19% | 5.3 | CRY | MID |
| Richarlison | 19% | 5.4 | TOT | FWD |
| Diego Costa | 18% | 5.6 | WOL | FWD |
| Neal Maupay | 17% | 5.8 | EVE | FWD |
| Crysencio Summerville | 17% | 5.8 | LEE | MID |
| Demarai Gray | 17% | 6 | EVE | MID |
| Wilfred Gnonto | 16% | 6.1 | LEE | MID |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | 16% | 6.1 | NFO | FWD |
| Anthony Gordon | 16% | 6.4 | NEW | MID |
| Brennan Johnson | 16% | 6.4 | NFO | FWD |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 15% | 6.5 | NEW | MID |
| Sam Surridge | 15% | 6.5 | NFO | FWD |
| Granit Xhaka | 15% | 6.75 | ARS | MID |
| Adam Armstrong | 15% | 6.75 | SOU | FWD |
| Che Adams | 14% | 7 | SOU | FWD |
| Virgil van Dijk | 12% | 8.5 | LIV | DEF |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 11% | 9.5 | LIV | DEF |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 10% | 10.5 | TOT | MID |
| Ivan Perisic | 10% | 10.5 | TOT | DEF |
Mohammed Salah (57%) stands out as the captaincy choice this week, according to the Bookies, the Liverpool midfielder netted a brace against Leeds on Monday night and could have even had one or two more.
Despite accusations of underperformance this season, Salah has still managed to rack up 15 goals and eight assists for 180 points, making him the joint top-scoring midfielder. Eight returns in his last six games would suggest he’s beginning to find top gear for the run-in.
This week he welcomes Nottingham Forest, who have kept just two away clean sheets all season (15 games) and have conceded 36 goals in that time, conceding three or more goals on six occasions.
He makes for an obvious, and likely popular, captaincy choice this gameweek.
He is joined by teammate Diogo Jota (45%), who after a frustrating return from injury, managed two goals and an assist in Gameweek 31 which should fill him with confidence going into this weekend.
Gabriel Jesus (52%) is another man in form at the moment. He scored the opener against West Ham last weekend to make it four goals in his last three starts and looks back to top form.
He takes on Southampton this week as they edge ever closer to the drop, conceding ten goals in their last four games. Arsenal on the other hand have scored 20 goals in five home games against the other bottom six teams: West Ham (3) , Leeds (4), Everton (4), Nottingham Forest (5), Leicester (4).
Ivan Toney (43%) is the second most sold forward going into BGW31 despite scoring nine goals in 14 starts in all home games this season.
Though the Bees talismanic striker has underwhelmed of late, the Bookies counsel patience as he takes on a high-flying Aston Villa side who have been massively overperforming the expected goals conceded (xGC) numbers since the World Cup, conceding 18 goals from an xGC of 24.84.
Due to an Arsenal defensive double-up, we must go without Saka & Martinelli (both 42%), which means James Maddison (29%) gets the nod in our XI this week.
In the last six gameweeks, Wolves have conceded the majority of their chances down the centre (20) which should provide Maddison the opportunity to repay managers faith and patience.
Rodrigo Moreno (27%) makes for another surprising inclusion in our lineup this gameweek. Leeds have been in terrible form of late, though they are still scoring goals, managing nine goals in their last five games.
His opponents this weekend, Fulham, are in equally poor form, with just one win in their last six conceding 11 goals in that time.
At just 4.1% ownership, Rodrigo makes for a decent differential this weekend.
On the bench for us this weekend is Andreas Pereira (24%), cheap and on penalties with Mitrovic suspended, no player has attempted more shots in the past six gameweeks, as well Yoanne Wissa (27%).
Clean sheet odds Gameweek 32
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Arsenal | 60% | 1.68 |
| Liverpool | 58% | 1.71 |
| Crystal Palace | 44% | 2.25 |
| Newcastle | 40% | 2.5 |
| Leicester | 35% | 2.85 |
| West Ham | 34% | 2.9 |
| Fulham | 33% | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 32% | 3.1 |
| Brentford | 32% | 3.15 |
| Wolves | 31% | 3.25 |
| Aston Villa | 30% | 3.35 |
| Everton | 29% | 3.45 |
| Leeds | 27% | 3.7 |
| Tottenham | 21% | 4.75 |
| Nottingham Forest | 8% | 12.5 |
| Southampton | 8% | 12.5 |
Arsenal (60%) are the Bookies’ favourites for a clean sheet this weekend when they welcome Southampton to the Emirates Stadium.
Without a clean sheet in their last four games, the Bookies expect them to return to their old form as the pressure heats up in the title race.
Their opponents, Southampton, are under serious pressure of their own. Without a goal in any of their last three matches on the road, they sit 17th for shots in the box (42) and big chances (7) in their last six gameweeks.
Ben White has the highest expected goal involvement of any Arsenal defender, he is joined in a defensive double up with Gabriel as Southampton have looked vulnerable from set pieces in recent weeks.
Liverpool (58%) have had equally poor defensive form of late (and all season) though they have had some tough fixtures recently. They’ve managed just one clean sheet in their last five.
The Bookies feel safe in predicting a clean sheet this week however, mainly owing to their opponents poor goal scoring record on the road this season.
Just five goals on the road all season leaves Nottingham Forest bottom of the league for both goals and expected goals (xG).
Trent Alexander-Arnold showed just a glimpse of his potential the other night grabbing two assists. The creative right back has massive potential and is a no brainer in defence this weekend.
Crystal Palace (44%) have certainly turned things around under Roy Hodgson and managed their first clean sheet in six gameweeks last weekend away to Southampton.
This week they welcome a struggling Everton who sit 17th for open play goals away from home this season (5), as well as being 19th for xG from open play (8.21).
Despite just one clean sheet in their last six, Palace have the third lowest expected goals conceded (xGC) in that time (7.37).
Sam Johnstone (£4.4m) makes for a great option between the sticks after he made four saves to secure two bonus points in a nine-point return last weekend.
Newcastle (40%) despite conceding three at Villa last weekend, the Magpies continue to have the best defensive record in the league this season, conceding just 24 goals so far.
Their opponents this weekend, Tottenham Hotspur, sit 13th for expected goals from open play away from home this season and have only managed to score more than one goal on one occasion in their last five away matches.
Kieran Trippier continues to be the obvious choice in the Newcastle defence, though his returns have dropped off recently, he’s managed an attacking return in both of his last two home games, returning 12 points against Man United in Gameweek 29.
On our bench in defence, this week is a Leicester (35%) double-up of Daniel Iversen (£3.8) & Timothy Castagne (£4.3m) who take a Wolves side who sit 19th for xG in their last six away games.
Who’s the best captain pick for gameweek 32? Find out in our roundup here
Team of the Gameweek
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here