Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 33

A quick turnaround into Gameweek 33 and, as we hurtle towards the end of the Premier League, every move has the potential to make or break a season.
For the Bookies Advantage XI this week, our attack is made up of explosive assets, while in defence there are one or two interesting differentials.

We have analysed the captain options in Gameweek 33 here

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscorer odds gameweek 33

PlayerProbabilityOddsTeamPosition
Erling Haaland60%1.68MCIFWD
Ollie Watkins46%2.16AVLFWD
Mohamed Salah46%2.18LIVMID
Harry Kane42%2.38TOTFWD
Darwin Nunez40%2.5LIVFWD
Joao Felix39%2.55CHEFWD
Callum Wilson39%2.55NEWFWD
Alexander Isak38%2.6NEWFWD
Danny Welbeck38%2.65BHAFWD
Julian Alvarez37%2.7MCIFWD
Patrick Bamford36%2.8LEEFWD
Wout Weghorst36%2.8MUNFWD
Marcus Rashford36%2.8MUNMID
Kaoru Mitoma34%2.95BHAMID
Alex Mac Allister33%3BHAMID
Raheem Sterling33%3.05CHEMID
Diego Jota33%3.05LIVMID
Riyad Mahrez33%3.05MCIMID
Kai Havertz32%3.1CHEFWD
Kelechi Iheanacho32%3.1LEIFWD
Adam Armstrong32%3.1SOUFWD
Jamie Vardy31%3.2LEIFWD
Son Heung-Min31%3.2TOTMID
Ivan Toney31%3.25BREFWD
Wilfried Zaha30%3.35CRYMID
Cody Gakpo30%3.35LIVMID
Dominic Solanke29%3.4BOUFWD
Roberto Firmino29%3.45LIVFWD
Danny Ings29%3.45WHUFWD
James Maddison28%3.6LEIMID
Raul Jimenez28%3.6WOLFWD
Solly March27%3.7BHAMID
Kieffer Moore27%3.7BOUFWD
Antony26%3.8MUNMID
Carlos Vinicius26%3.85FULFWD
Phil Foden26%3.9MCIMID
Patson Daka25%3.95LEIFWD
Kevin De Bruyne25%3.95MCIMID
Richarlison25%3.95TOTFWD
Hee-Chan Hwang25%3.95WOLMID
Dominic Calvert-Lewin25%4EVEFWD
Harvey Barnes25%4LEIMID
Matheus Cunha25%4WOLFWD
Emiliano Buendia24%4.1AVLMID
Christian Pulisic24%4.1CHEMID
Jean-Philippe Mateta24%4.1CRYFWD
Anthony Martial24%4.1MUNFWD
Michail Antonio24%4.1WHUFWD
Daniel Podence23%4.3WOLMID
Crysencio Summerville23%4.4LEEMID
Wilfred Gnonto23%4.4LEEMID
Ilkay Gundogan23%4.4MCIMID
Jarrod Bowen23%4.4WHUMID
Gabriel Jesus22%4.5ARSFWD
Miguel Almiron22%4.5NEWMID
Taiwo Awoniyi22%4.5NFOFWD
Mason Mount22%4.6CHEMID
Odsonne Edouard21%4.7CRYFWD
Bruno Fernandes21%4.8MUNMID
Jadon Sancho21%4.8MUNMID
Bukayo Saka20%4.9ARSMID
Said Benrahma20%4.9WHUMID
Brennan Johnson19%5.2NFOFWD
Sam Surridge19%5.2NFOFWD
Eddie Nketiah19%5.25ARSFWD
Gabriel Martinelli19%5.25ARSMID
Yoane Wissa19%5.3BREMID
Diego Costa19%5.3WOLFWD
Philip Billing19%5.4BOUMID
Mykhaylo Mudryk19%5.4CHEMID
Joe Willock19%5.4NEWMID
Andreas Pereira18%5.5FULMID
Pascal Gross18%5.6BHAMID
Allan Saint-Maximin18%5.6NEWMID
Jack Grealish17%6MCIMID
Neal Maupay16%6.25EVEFWD
Anthony Gordon16%6.25NEWMID
Leandro Trossard16%6.4ARSMID
Kevin Schade15%6.5BREFWD
Demarai Gray15%6.5EVEMID
Bernardo Silva15%6.5MCIMID
Lucas Moura15%6.5TOTMID
Harry Wilson15%6.75FULMID
Christian Eriksen15%6.75MUNMID
Eberechi Eze14%7CRYMID
Bruno Guimaraes14%7NEWMID
Dejan Kulusevski14%7TOTMID
Bryan Mbeumo13%7.5BREFWD
Reece James13%7.5CHEDEF
Michael Olise13%7.5CRYMID
Ivan Perisic13%7.5TOTDEF
Martin Odegaard13%8ARSMID
Jordan Ayew13%8CRYMID
Virgil van Dijk8%12LIVDEF
Trent Alexander-Arnold8%13LIVDEF
Granit Xhaka6%16ARSMID
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 33

Erling Haaland (60%) scored four goals in his last two games before he blanked in Gameweek 32.
This week he welcomes Arsenal to the Etihad who will be hurting after their third draw in a row handing the initiative back to City in the title race. Arsenal’s defensive data has collapsed since William Saliba was injured, conceding nine goals in five games, keeping zero clean sheets, with four of those games against teams in the bottom eight.
The Norwegian number nine will be licking his lips at the prospect of taking on this wounded Arsenal side. He’s an easy choice as captain this gameweek.

Mohammed Salah (46%) scored again in Gameweek 32 to make it four goals in three games as he continues to look back to his best form.
He travels to West Ham this midweek, buoyed by good recent results but still vulnerable in defence. Over the last six gameweeks, West Ham have conceded eight goals (9th) from an expected goals conceded (xGC) of 10.12 (12th).
Salah is first amongst all midfielders for shots in the box (19) and big chances (7) in the same period.

Having returned 16 times in 16 games since the World Cup, Ollie Watkins (46%) waited until everybody had him in their Free Hit teams to blank.
However, the Bookies do not expect this to continue this week when he takes on a Fulham side who appear to be packing their bags and browsing flights to Marbella as they dream of the beach.
Villa have been in flying form recently, now is not the time to try to be clever, we’re sticking with Ollie Watkins for this gameweek at least.

Speaking of dreaming of being elsewhere, Harry Kane (42%) must be thinking about life outside of North London. Though, even in a 6-1 demolition, Kane still managed to find a return, single-handedly beating the Newcastle defence to slot home a meek consolation.
This week he takes on a Manchester United team who are without their two starting centre-backs and despite the recent good defensive form in the league, conceded five goals over two legs against Sevilla in the Europa League.

Marcus Rashford (36%) is another good pick from this game as he tries to find his best form again since his injury and coming up against this incredibly fragile Spurs side may be just what he needs to find it again. A goal and assist in his last two starts shows that even when out of form he is Man United’s most dangerous player on the pitch.

Kaoru Mitoma (34%) takes up the last starting midfield spot. Playing a Nottingham Forest side in free fall this gameweek, in the last six gameweeks he has 48 touches in the box (3rd) and looks a constant danger any time he is on the ball.

On the bench for us this week are Andreas Pereira (18%) who scored in Gameweek 32,as well as Jacob Murphy who at just £4.1m bagged a brace against Spurs.

Clean sheet odds Gameweek 33

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Newcastle46%2.17
Brighton45%2.2
Chelsea45%2.2
Aston Villa41%2.45
Man City41%2.45
Wolves40%2.5
Southampton37%2.7
Liverpool36%2.75
Crystal Palace31%3.2
Leeds31%3.2
Man Utd29%3.45
Bournemouth28%3.55
Tottenham25%3.95
Leicester24%4.1
Everton23%4.4
Brentford21%4.8
Fulham20%5
West Ham19%5.25
Nottingham Forest17%6
Arsenal15%6.75
Clean sheet odds Gameweek 33

Newcastle (46%) top the charts in terms of clean sheet odds this gameweek despite having just one clean sheet in their last 11 games. Some FPL managers are starting to suggest that putting our blind faith in their defence may be something that needs questioning.
The Bookies, however, continue to counsel patience and to look at each game in isolation. Newcastle’s opponents this gameweek, Everton are 19th for xG from open play in the last six, scoring just five goals. They continue to edge closer to the drop and show little signs of fight.
Kieran Trippier is 2nd for xGI amongst defenders in the last six gameweeks, behind only Trent Alexander-Arnold. Holding him, for now, seems like the right play. He is joined by Fabian Schar, who is top among defenders for shots (43), shots in the box (32) and big chances (7) over the course of this season.

Chelsea (45%) also had a blank in Gameweek 32 and may benefit from extra time on the train pitch for Lampard to implement his ideas (if he has any).
No clean sheets as yet under Lampard may seem worrying but to be totally fair, one way against a high-flying Brighton and two were against Real Madrid.
This week the slightly easier task of playing host to a Brentford side who have failed to score in three of their last five away from home.
Ben Chilwell sits third amongst defenders for expected goal involvement over the last six games and provides a high upside differential. He is joined by Kepa Arrizabalaga in a second defensive double-up this gameweek.

Brighton (45%) are up next as they travel to Nottingham Forest for what looks like a must-win game for both sides. Three clean sheets in their last seven, while also keeping one in the FA Cup semi-final against Man United shows their defensive credentials.
Forest however will no doubt be dispirited having scored two away at Liverpool and still coming out empty-handed. Even with those two goals they are still bottom for open play goals and open play xG in their last six, scoring four goals from an xG of 2.50.
Pervis Estupinian seems the most obvious choice here, as he has the highest xGI out of all the Brighton defenders.

On the bench for us in defence this week are Daniel Iversen and Toti Gomes, who continue to offer excellent value at just £3.8m.

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Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here