Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 33

A quick turnaround into Gameweek 33 and, as we hurtle towards the end of the Premier League, every move has the potential to make or break a season.
For the Bookies Advantage XI this week, our attack is made up of explosive assets, while in defence there are one or two interesting differentials.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Player	Probability	Odds	Team	Position
Erling Haaland	60%	1.68	MCI	FWD
Ollie Watkins	46%	2.16	AVL	FWD
Mohamed Salah	46%	2.18	LIV	MID
Harry Kane	42%	2.38	TOT	FWD
Darwin Nunez	40%	2.5	LIV	FWD
Joao Felix	39%	2.55	CHE	FWD
Callum Wilson	39%	2.55	NEW	FWD
Alexander Isak	38%	2.6	NEW	FWD
Danny Welbeck	38%	2.65	BHA	FWD
Julian Alvarez	37%	2.7	MCI	FWD
Patrick Bamford	36%	2.8	LEE	FWD
Wout Weghorst	36%	2.8	MUN	FWD
Marcus Rashford	36%	2.8	MUN	MID
Kaoru Mitoma	34%	2.95	BHA	MID
Alex Mac Allister	33%	3	BHA	MID
Raheem Sterling	33%	3.05	CHE	MID
Diego Jota	33%	3.05	LIV	MID
Riyad Mahrez	33%	3.05	MCI	MID
Kai Havertz	32%	3.1	CHE	FWD
Kelechi Iheanacho	32%	3.1	LEI	FWD
Adam Armstrong	32%	3.1	SOU	FWD
Jamie Vardy	31%	3.2	LEI	FWD
Son Heung-Min	31%	3.2	TOT	MID
Ivan Toney	31%	3.25	BRE	FWD
Wilfried Zaha	30%	3.35	CRY	MID
Cody Gakpo	30%	3.35	LIV	MID
Dominic Solanke	29%	3.4	BOU	FWD
Roberto Firmino	29%	3.45	LIV	FWD
Danny Ings	29%	3.45	WHU	FWD
James Maddison	28%	3.6	LEI	MID
Raul Jimenez	28%	3.6	WOL	FWD
Solly March	27%	3.7	BHA	MID
Kieffer Moore	27%	3.7	BOU	FWD
Antony	26%	3.8	MUN	MID
Carlos Vinicius	26%	3.85	FUL	FWD
Phil Foden	26%	3.9	MCI	MID
Patson Daka	25%	3.95	LEI	FWD
Kevin De Bruyne	25%	3.95	MCI	MID
Richarlison	25%	3.95	TOT	FWD
Hee-Chan Hwang	25%	3.95	WOL	MID
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	25%	4	EVE	FWD
Harvey Barnes	25%	4	LEI	MID
Matheus Cunha	25%	4	WOL	FWD
Emiliano Buendia	24%	4.1	AVL	MID
Christian Pulisic	24%	4.1	CHE	MID
Jean-Philippe Mateta	24%	4.1	CRY	FWD
Anthony Martial	24%	4.1	MUN	FWD
Michail Antonio	24%	4.1	WHU	FWD
Daniel Podence	23%	4.3	WOL	MID
Crysencio Summerville	23%	4.4	LEE	MID
Wilfred Gnonto	23%	4.4	LEE	MID
Ilkay Gundogan	23%	4.4	MCI	MID
Jarrod Bowen	23%	4.4	WHU	MID
Gabriel Jesus	22%	4.5	ARS	FWD
Miguel Almiron	22%	4.5	NEW	MID
Taiwo Awoniyi	22%	4.5	NFO	FWD
Mason Mount	22%	4.6	CHE	MID
Odsonne Edouard	21%	4.7	CRY	FWD
Bruno Fernandes	21%	4.8	MUN	MID
Jadon Sancho	21%	4.8	MUN	MID
Bukayo Saka	20%	4.9	ARS	MID
Said Benrahma	20%	4.9	WHU	MID
Brennan Johnson	19%	5.2	NFO	FWD
Sam Surridge	19%	5.2	NFO	FWD
Eddie Nketiah	19%	5.25	ARS	FWD
Gabriel Martinelli	19%	5.25	ARS	MID
Yoane Wissa	19%	5.3	BRE	MID
Diego Costa	19%	5.3	WOL	FWD
Philip Billing	19%	5.4	BOU	MID
Mykhaylo Mudryk	19%	5.4	CHE	MID
Joe Willock	19%	5.4	NEW	MID
Andreas Pereira	18%	5.5	FUL	MID
Pascal Gross	18%	5.6	BHA	MID
Allan Saint-Maximin	18%	5.6	NEW	MID
Jack Grealish	17%	6	MCI	MID
Neal Maupay	16%	6.25	EVE	FWD
Anthony Gordon	16%	6.25	NEW	MID
Leandro Trossard	16%	6.4	ARS	MID
Kevin Schade	15%	6.5	BRE	FWD
Demarai Gray	15%	6.5	EVE	MID
Bernardo Silva	15%	6.5	MCI	MID
Lucas Moura	15%	6.5	TOT	MID
Harry Wilson	15%	6.75	FUL	MID
Christian Eriksen	15%	6.75	MUN	MID
Eberechi Eze	14%	7	CRY	MID
Bruno Guimaraes	14%	7	NEW	MID
Dejan Kulusevski	14%	7	TOT	MID
Bryan Mbeumo	13%	7.5	BRE	FWD
Reece James	13%	7.5	CHE	DEF
Michael Olise	13%	7.5	CRY	MID
Ivan Perisic	13%	7.5	TOT	DEF
Martin Odegaard	13%	8	ARS	MID
Jordan Ayew	13%	8	CRY	MID
Virgil van Dijk	8%	12	LIV	DEF
Trent Alexander-Arnold	8%	13	LIV	DEF
Granit Xhaka	6%	16	ARS	MID

Erling Haaland (60%) scored four goals in his last two games before he blanked in Gameweek 32.
This week he welcomes Arsenal to the Etihad who will be hurting after their third draw in a row handing the initiative back to City in the title race. Arsenal’s defensive data has collapsed since William Saliba was injured, conceding nine goals in five games, keeping zero clean sheets, with four of those games against teams in the bottom eight.
The Norwegian number nine will be licking his lips at the prospect of taking on this wounded Arsenal side. He’s an easy choice as captain this gameweek.

Mohammed Salah (46%) scored again in Gameweek 32 to make it four goals in three games as he continues to look back to his best form.
He travels to West Ham this midweek, buoyed by good recent results but still vulnerable in defence. Over the last six gameweeks, West Ham have conceded eight goals (9th) from an expected goals conceded (xGC) of 10.12 (12th).
Salah is first amongst all midfielders for shots in the box (19) and big chances (7) in the same period.

Having returned 16 times in 16 games since the World Cup, Ollie Watkins (46%) waited until everybody had him in their Free Hit teams to blank.
However, the Bookies do not expect this to continue this week when he takes on a Fulham side who appear to be packing their bags and browsing flights to Marbella as they dream of the beach.
Villa have been in flying form recently, now is not the time to try to be clever, we’re sticking with Ollie Watkins for this gameweek at least.

Speaking of dreaming of being elsewhere, Harry Kane (42%) must be thinking about life outside of North London. Though, even in a 6-1 demolition, Kane still managed to find a return, single-handedly beating the Newcastle defence to slot home a meek consolation.
This week he takes on a Manchester United team who are without their two starting centre-backs and despite the recent good defensive form in the league, conceded five goals over two legs against Sevilla in the Europa League.

Marcus Rashford (36%) is another good pick from this game as he tries to find his best form again since his injury and coming up against this incredibly fragile Spurs side may be just what he needs to find it again. A goal and assist in his last two starts shows that even when out of form he is Man United’s most dangerous player on the pitch.

Kaoru Mitoma (34%) takes up the last starting midfield spot. Playing a Nottingham Forest side in free fall this gameweek, in the last six gameweeks he has 48 touches in the box (3rd) and looks a constant danger any time he is on the ball.

On the bench for us this week are Andreas Pereira (18%) who scored in Gameweek 32,as well as Jacob Murphy who at just £4.1m bagged a brace against Spurs.

Team	Clean Sheet Probability	Odds
Newcastle	46%	2.17
Brighton	45%	2.2
Chelsea	45%	2.2
Aston Villa	41%	2.45
Man City	41%	2.45
Wolves	40%	2.5
Southampton	37%	2.7
Liverpool	36%	2.75
Crystal Palace	31%	3.2
Leeds	31%	3.2
Man Utd	29%	3.45
Bournemouth	28%	3.55
Tottenham	25%	3.95
Leicester	24%	4.1
Everton	23%	4.4
Brentford	21%	4.8
Fulham	20%	5
West Ham	19%	5.25
Nottingham Forest	17%	6
Arsenal	15%	6.75

Newcastle (46%) top the charts in terms of clean sheet odds this gameweek despite having just one clean sheet in their last 11 games. Some FPL managers are starting to suggest that putting our blind faith in their defence may be something that needs questioning.
The Bookies, however, continue to counsel patience and to look at each game in isolation. Newcastle’s opponents this gameweek, Everton are 19th for xG from open play in the last six, scoring just five goals. They continue to edge closer to the drop and show little signs of fight.
Kieran Trippier is 2nd for xGI amongst defenders in the last six gameweeks, behind only Trent Alexander-Arnold. Holding him, for now, seems like the right play. He is joined by Fabian Schar, who is top among defenders for shots (43), shots in the box (32) and big chances (7) over the course of this season.

Chelsea (45%) also had a blank in Gameweek 32 and may benefit from extra time on the train pitch for Lampard to implement his ideas (if he has any).
No clean sheets as yet under Lampard may seem worrying but to be totally fair, one way against a high-flying Brighton and two were against Real Madrid.
This week the slightly easier task of playing host to a Brentford side who have failed to score in three of their last five away from home.
Ben Chilwell sits third amongst defenders for expected goal involvement over the last six games and provides a high upside differential. He is joined by Kepa Arrizabalaga in a second defensive double-up this gameweek.

Brighton (45%) are up next as they travel to Nottingham Forest for what looks like a must-win game for both sides. Three clean sheets in their last seven, while also keeping one in the FA Cup semi-final against Man United shows their defensive credentials.
Forest however will no doubt be dispirited having scored two away at Liverpool and still coming out empty-handed. Even with those two goals they are still bottom for open play goals and open play xG in their last six, scoring four goals from an xG of 2.50.
Pervis Estupinian seems the most obvious choice here, as he has the highest xGI out of all the Brighton defenders.

On the bench for us in defence this week are Daniel Iversen and Toti Gomes, who continue to offer excellent value at just £3.8m.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here