Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 34

The last big double gameweek of the season provides the chance to make big gains as we head into the final stretch. Few enough surprises in the Bookies Advantage XI this week however, some low-ownership players make it in. A couple of returns from these players is all it takes to send you soaring up the ranks.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

We have analysed the best captain options in Gameweek 34 here

Player	Team	Probability	Probability match 2	Combined probability
Erling Haaland	MCI	65%	65%	88%
Mohamed Salah	LIV	53%	58%	80%
Darwin Nunez	LIV	49%	53%	76%
Julian Alvarez	MCI	46%	47%	72%
Diego Jota	LIV	44%	47%	70%
Riyad Mahrez	MCI	40%	45%	67%
Roberto Firmino	LIV	38%	42%	64%
Marcus Rashford	MUN	43%	36%	64%
Danny Welbeck	BHA	40%	37%	62%
Phil Foden	MCI	33%	34%	56%
Cody Gakpo	LIV	32%	34%	55%
Wout Weghorst	MUN	36%	29%	54%
Kevin De Bruyne	MCI	30%	33%	53%
Kaoru Mitoma	BHA	34%	28%	53%
Alexis Mac Allister	BHA	33%	29%	52%
Ivan Toney	BRE	52%		52%
Callum Wilson	NEW	52%		52%
Ilkay Gundogan	MCI	29%	30%	50%
Bruno Fernandes	MUN	29%	26%	48%
Antony	MUN	30%	24%	47%
Anthony Martial	MUN	30%	24%	47%
Alexander Isak	NEW	45%		45%
Jadon Sancho	MUN	26%	21%	42%
Solly March	BHA	25%	21%	41%
Jack Grealish	MCI	22%	23%	40%
Danny Ings	WHU	27%	17%	40%
Kelechi Iheanacho	LEI	38%		38%
Bernardo Silva	MCI	21%	22%	38%
Gabriel Jesus	ARS	38%		38%
Jamie Vardy	LEI	38%		38%
Harry Kane	TOT	38%		38%
Michail Antonio	WHU	24%	17%	37%
Dominic Solanke	BOU	36%		36%
Carlos Vinicius	FUL	18%	22%	36%
Eddie Nketiah	ARS	35%		35%
Kieffer Moore	BOU	34%		34%
Patrick Bamford	LEE	34%		34%
Wilfried Zaha	CRY	34%		34%
Yoane Wissa	BRE	33%		33%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	EVE	32%		32%
Jarrod Bowen	WHU	22%	13%	32%
Said Benrahma	WHU	20%	14%	32%
Bukayo Saka	ARS	32%		32%
James Maddison	LEI	32%		32%
Gabriel Martinelli	ARS	31%		31%
Ollie Watkins	AVL	31%		31%
Patson Daka	LEI	31%		31%
Rodrigo	LEE	30%		30%
Harvey Barnes	LEI	30%		30%
Miguel Almiron	NEW	30%		30%
Christian Eriksen	MUN	18%	14%	30%
Leandro Trossard	ARS	28%		28%
Jean-Philippe Mateta	CRY	28%		28%
Joao Felix	CHE	27%		27%
Son Heung-Min	TOT	27%		27%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	CHE	26%		26%
Lucas Paquetá	WHU	15%	12%	25%
Odsonne Edouard	CRY	25%		25%
Allan Saint-Maximin	NEW	25%		25%
Joe Willock	NEW	25%		25%
Martin Odegaard	ARS	24%		24%
Bobby Reid	FUL	11%	14%	24%
Bryan Mbeumo	BRE	24%		24%
Neal Maupay	EVE	23%		23%
Richarlison	TOT	23%		23%
Leon Bailey	AVL	22%		22%
Harry Wilson	FUL	10%	13%	22%
Eberechi Eze	CRY	22%		22%
Anthony Gordon	NEW	22%		22%
Taiwo Awoniyi	NFO	21%		21%
Virgil van Dijk	LIV	11%	11%	21%
Kai Havertz	CHE	20%		20%
Raheem Sterling	CHE	20%		20%
Wilfred Gnonto	LEE	20%		20%
Andreas Pereira	FUL	10%	11%	20%
Pascal Gross	BHA	19%		19%
Brennan Johnson	NFO	19%		19%
Trent Alexander-Arnold	LIV	9%	11%	19%
Bruno Guimaraes	NEW	19%		19%
Sam Surridge	NFO	19%		19%
Adam Armstrong	SOU	19%		19%
Emiliano Buendia	AVL	18%		18%
Demarai Gray	EVE	18%		18%
Raul Jimenez	WOL	18%		18%
Philippe Coutinho	AVL	17%		17%
Hee-Chan Hwang	WOL	17%		17%
Daniel Podence	WOL	16%		16%
Che Adams	SOU	16%		16%
Christian Pulisic	CHE	15%		15%
Matheus Cunha	WOL	15%		15%
Diego Costa	WOL	15%		15%
Mason Mount	CHE	14%		14%
Dejan Kulusevski	TOT	13%		13%
Ivan Perisic	TOT	11%		11%
Granit Xhaka	ARS	11%		11%
Mathias Jensen	BRE	11%		11%
Brenden Aaronson	LEE	11%		11%
Mykhaylo Mudryk	CHE	8%		8%
Reece James	CHE	8%		8%

Erling Haaland (88%) turned more provider than scorer in midweek as he helped his side to a win in the title decider against Arsenal, but that still didn’t stop him from adding a goal to his two assists for a 14-point haul, making it three double-digit returns in his last three games.
In this double the City striker travels to a faltering Fulham before taking on weary West Ham at home in midweek. Haaland scored a brace on his debut in Gameweek 1 against David Moyes’s side, who have shipped 10 goals in their last six games. Meanwhile, Marco Silva’s side look disinterested as they have nothing to play for in these last few games.
Haaland makes an easy choice for captaincy this week.

Mohammed Salah (80%) runs him quite close in the odds and could be a captaincy choice if chasing in your mini-league. The Liverpool winger blanked in midweek against West Ham but has scored six goals and gotten two assists in his last five home matches of which he has two this double gameweek.
Spurs are up first whose troubles on the road of late are well known, conceding 18 in their last five away from home. Fulham come next who are 13th for expected goals conceded (xGC) in their last six away from home.
Diogo Jota (70%) joins his Liverpool teammate as the Bookies believe there is no cause for worry after his blank during the week, having scored back-to-back braces in the previous two gameweeks. He still had an xG of 0.74 and missed two big chances showing he is still getting in good positions.

Marcus Rashford (64%) returned to his best form in midweek as he grabbed a goal and an assist vs Tottenham. He’ll be hoping to continue this good form when he takes on Aston Villa at home and Brighton away this double gameweek, two fixtures in which Man United lost the reverse of earlier in the season.
Villa sit 17th for xGC in their last six away games, while Brighton look to be struggling to deal with the demanding schedule as they crashed to a 3-1 loss to Nottingham Forest during the week.
Rashford has seven returns in his last six home games and is a good bet to score in at least one if not both of these games.

Kaoru Mitoma (53%) & Alexis MacAllister (52%) make up the last two midfield spots as they have two home fixtures, first against Wolves and then a re-match to the FA Cup semi-final vs Manchester United.
United sit 19th for xGC in their last six away games, though the 7-0 at Liverpool inflates that number and Wolves haven’t kept an away clean sheet since Gameweek 5.
Both are good options this week.

On the bench this week are Ivan Toney (52%) who narrowly misses out on the starting XI and Andreas Pereira (10%) with a tough double of Man City (H) and Liverpool (A).

Team	CS Probability	CS Probability game 2	Combined probability
Man City	55%	55%	79%
Liverpool	38%	46%	66%
Brighton	49%	28%	63%
Newcastle	55%		55%
Man Utd	37%	22%	51%
Brentford	48%		48%
Arsenal	43%		43%
West Ham	36%	8%	41%
Leicester	38%		38%
Crystal Palace	37%		37%
Leeds	31%		31%
Bournemouth	29%		29%
Everton	27%		27%
Fulham	11%	12%	21%
Nottingham Forest	20%		20%
Chelsea	20%		20%
Aston Villa	18%		18%
Wolves	17%		17%
Southampton	15%		15%
Tottenham	15%		15%

Manchester City (79%) continue to confound the odds, and not in a good way. No clean sheets in their last four and one clean sheet in their last 11 despite having by far the best xGC numbers in the league has been incredibly frustrating for anyone who owns Manchester City defensive assets.
They will be hoping to make good on those numbers this double gameweek as they take on West Ham and Fulham, who sit 15th and 20th respectively for expected goals over the last six gameweeks.
Because we are gluttons for punishment here, we are going for Man City defensive double-up of John Stones, two goals in his last two games as well as Manuel Akanji who seems fairly nailed in that City defence.

Liverpool (66%) are another side whose defence has been underwhelming, however they take on two teams this gameweek who look out of fight and out of ideas in Spurs and Fulham.
Spurs’ attacking stats are very poor as they sit 12th for xG in the last six gameweeks (behind even Chelsea!). While Fulham, as previously mentioned, are 20th despite kind fixtures in playing four of the bottom six in that time.
Alexander-Arnold has five assists in four games and while he is yet to keep a clean sheet in those if Liverpool do manage to do so, he could be in for a massive haul this double gameweek.

Surprisingly, Brighton (63%) are second only to Man City in terms of xGC over the last six gameweeks (12.93) keeping two clean sheets in that time while being desperately unlucky not to keep one away at Chelsea.
Their opponents this week are Wolves, who sit 14 for xG over the last six games, as well as Man United who fare much better, though were held goalless in the FA Cup semi-final just last weekend.
Jason Steele saved a penalty on Wednesday night and remains a steal at just £3.9m, he takes his place between the sticks for us this gameweek.

Newcastle (55%) finally make up the last of our starting XI despite having a single gameweek. Eddie Howe’s men are another side who have failed to turn their excellent defensive date into real-life clean sheets but the Bookies always favour the underlying statistics and so do we.
They welcome Southampton in Gameweek 34 for what should be a routine win for the Magpies. The Saints are 19th for xG over the last six games even with scoring three away at Arsenal, and are rock bottom of the league for xG away from home all season.
Kieran Trippier has been disappointing recently, with five consecutive blanks, but there is a reason he became essential in the first place, his haul potential is a big factor in that and is the main reason he takes his place in our starting XI this gameweek.

On the bench for us in defence are Daniel Iversen and Hugo Bueno, both still excellent value at just £3.8m.

We have analysed the best captain options in Gameweek 34 here

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here