Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 34

The last big double gameweek of the season provides the chance to make big gains as we head into the final stretch. Few enough surprises in the Bookies Advantage XI this week however, some low-ownership players make it in. A couple of returns from these players is all it takes to send you soaring up the ranks.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

We have analysed the best captain options in Gameweek 34 here

Goalscoring odds gameweek 34

PlayerTeamProbabilityProbability match 2Combined probability
Erling HaalandMCI65%65%88%
Mohamed SalahLIV53%58%80%
Darwin NunezLIV49%53%76%
Julian AlvarezMCI46%47%72%
Diego JotaLIV44%47%70%
Riyad MahrezMCI40%45%67%
Roberto FirminoLIV38%42%64%
Marcus RashfordMUN43%36%64%
Danny WelbeckBHA40%37%62%
Phil FodenMCI33%34%56%
Cody GakpoLIV32%34%55%
Wout WeghorstMUN36%29%54%
Kevin De BruyneMCI30%33%53%
Kaoru MitomaBHA34%28%53%
Alexis Mac AllisterBHA33%29%52%
Ivan ToneyBRE52%52%
Callum WilsonNEW52%52%
Ilkay GundoganMCI29%30%50%
Bruno FernandesMUN29%26%48%
Anthony MartialMUN30%24%47%
Alexander IsakNEW45%45%
Jadon SanchoMUN26%21%42%
Solly MarchBHA25%21%41%
Jack GrealishMCI22%23%40%
Danny IngsWHU27%17%40%
Kelechi IheanachoLEI38%38%
Bernardo SilvaMCI21%22%38%
Gabriel JesusARS38%38%
Jamie VardyLEI38%38%
Harry KaneTOT38%38%
Michail AntonioWHU24%17%37%
Dominic SolankeBOU36%36%
Carlos ViniciusFUL18%22%36%
Eddie NketiahARS35%35%
Kieffer MooreBOU34%34%
Patrick BamfordLEE34%34%
Wilfried ZahaCRY34%34%
Yoane WissaBRE33%33%
Dominic Calvert-LewinEVE32%32%
Jarrod BowenWHU22%13%32%
Said BenrahmaWHU20%14%32%
Bukayo SakaARS32%32%
James MaddisonLEI32%32%
Gabriel MartinelliARS31%31%
Ollie WatkinsAVL31%31%
Patson DakaLEI31%31%
Harvey BarnesLEI30%30%
Miguel AlmironNEW30%30%
Christian EriksenMUN18%14%30%
Leandro TrossardARS28%28%
Jean-Philippe MatetaCRY28%28%
Joao FelixCHE27%27%
Son Heung-MinTOT27%27%
Pierre-Emerick AubameyangCHE26%26%
Lucas PaquetáWHU15%12%25%
Odsonne EdouardCRY25%25%
Allan Saint-MaximinNEW25%25%
Joe WillockNEW25%25%
Martin OdegaardARS24%24%
Bobby ReidFUL11%14%24%
Bryan MbeumoBRE24%24%
Neal MaupayEVE23%23%
Leon BaileyAVL22%22%
Harry WilsonFUL10%13%22%
Eberechi EzeCRY22%22%
Anthony GordonNEW22%22%
Taiwo AwoniyiNFO21%21%
Virgil van DijkLIV11%11%21%
Kai HavertzCHE20%20%
Raheem SterlingCHE20%20%
Wilfred GnontoLEE20%20%
Andreas PereiraFUL10%11%20%
Pascal GrossBHA19%19%
Brennan JohnsonNFO19%19%
Trent Alexander-ArnoldLIV9%11%19%
Bruno GuimaraesNEW19%19%
Sam SurridgeNFO19%19%
Adam ArmstrongSOU19%19%
Emiliano BuendiaAVL18%18%
Demarai GrayEVE18%18%
Raul JimenezWOL18%18%
Philippe CoutinhoAVL17%17%
Hee-Chan HwangWOL17%17%
Daniel PodenceWOL16%16%
Che AdamsSOU16%16%
Christian PulisicCHE15%15%
Matheus CunhaWOL15%15%
Diego CostaWOL15%15%
Mason MountCHE14%14%
Dejan KulusevskiTOT13%13%
Ivan PerisicTOT11%11%
Granit XhakaARS11%11%
Mathias JensenBRE11%11%
Brenden AaronsonLEE11%11%
Mykhaylo MudrykCHE8%8%
Reece JamesCHE8%8%
Goalscorer Odds gameweek 34

Erling Haaland (88%) turned more provider than scorer in midweek as he helped his side to a win in the title decider against Arsenal, but that still didn’t stop him from adding a goal to his two assists for a 14-point haul, making it three double-digit returns in his last three games.
In this double the City striker travels to a faltering Fulham before taking on weary West Ham at home in midweek. Haaland scored a brace on his debut in Gameweek 1 against David Moyes’s side, who have shipped 10 goals in their last six games. Meanwhile, Marco Silva’s side look disinterested as they have nothing to play for in these last few games.
Haaland makes an easy choice for captaincy this week.

Mohammed Salah (80%) runs him quite close in the odds and could be a captaincy choice if chasing in your mini-league. The Liverpool winger blanked in midweek against West Ham but has scored six goals and gotten two assists in his last five home matches of which he has two this double gameweek.
Spurs are up first whose troubles on the road of late are well known, conceding 18 in their last five away from home. Fulham come next who are 13th for expected goals conceded (xGC) in their last six away from home.
Diogo Jota (70%) joins his Liverpool teammate as the Bookies believe there is no cause for worry after his blank during the week, having scored back-to-back braces in the previous two gameweeks. He still had an xG of 0.74 and missed two big chances showing he is still getting in good positions.

Marcus Rashford (64%) returned to his best form in midweek as he grabbed a goal and an assist vs Tottenham. He’ll be hoping to continue this good form when he takes on Aston Villa at home and Brighton away this double gameweek, two fixtures in which Man United lost the reverse of earlier in the season.
Villa sit 17th for xGC in their last six away games, while Brighton look to be struggling to deal with the demanding schedule as they crashed to a 3-1 loss to Nottingham Forest during the week.
Rashford has seven returns in his last six home games and is a good bet to score in at least one if not both of these games.

Kaoru Mitoma (53%) & Alexis MacAllister (52%) make up the last two midfield spots as they have two home fixtures, first against Wolves and then a re-match to the FA Cup semi-final vs Manchester United.
United sit 19th for xGC in their last six away games, though the 7-0 at Liverpool inflates that number and Wolves haven’t kept an away clean sheet since Gameweek 5.
Both are good options this week.

On the bench this week are Ivan Toney (52%) who narrowly misses out on the starting XI and Andreas Pereira (10%) with a tough double of Man City (H) and Liverpool (A).

Clean sheet odds gameweek 34:

TeamCS ProbabilityCS Probability game 2Combined probability
Man City55%55%79%
Man Utd37%22%51%
West Ham36%8%41%
Crystal Palace37%37%
Nottingham Forest20%20%
Aston Villa18%18%
Clean Sheet odds gameweek 34

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Manchester City (79%) continue to confound the odds, and not in a good way. No clean sheets in their last four and one clean sheet in their last 11 despite having by far the best xGC numbers in the league has been incredibly frustrating for anyone who owns Manchester City defensive assets.
They will be hoping to make good on those numbers this double gameweek as they take on West Ham and Fulham, who sit 15th and 20th respectively for expected goals over the last six gameweeks.
Because we are gluttons for punishment here, we are going for Man City defensive double-up of John Stones, two goals in his last two games as well as Manuel Akanji who seems fairly nailed in that City defence.

Liverpool (66%) are another side whose defence has been underwhelming, however they take on two teams this gameweek who look out of fight and out of ideas in Spurs and Fulham.
Spurs’ attacking stats are very poor as they sit 12th for xG in the last six gameweeks (behind even Chelsea!). While Fulham, as previously mentioned, are 20th despite kind fixtures in playing four of the bottom six in that time.
Alexander-Arnold has five assists in four games and while he is yet to keep a clean sheet in those if Liverpool do manage to do so, he could be in for a massive haul this double gameweek.

Surprisingly, Brighton (63%) are second only to Man City in terms of xGC over the last six gameweeks (12.93) keeping two clean sheets in that time while being desperately unlucky not to keep one away at Chelsea.
Their opponents this week are Wolves, who sit 14 for xG over the last six games, as well as Man United who fare much better, though were held goalless in the FA Cup semi-final just last weekend.
Jason Steele saved a penalty on Wednesday night and remains a steal at just £3.9m, he takes his place between the sticks for us this gameweek.

Newcastle (55%) finally make up the last of our starting XI despite having a single gameweek. Eddie Howe’s men are another side who have failed to turn their excellent defensive date into real-life clean sheets but the Bookies always favour the underlying statistics and so do we.
They welcome Southampton in Gameweek 34 for what should be a routine win for the Magpies. The Saints are 19th for xG over the last six games even with scoring three away at Arsenal, and are rock bottom of the league for xG away from home all season.
Kieran Trippier has been disappointing recently, with five consecutive blanks, but there is a reason he became essential in the first place, his haul potential is a big factor in that and is the main reason he takes his place in our starting XI this gameweek.

On the bench for us in defence are Daniel Iversen and Hugo Bueno, both still excellent value at just £3.8m.

We have analysed the best captain options in Gameweek 34 here

Bookie’s Gameweek 34 dream team

Gameweek 34 clean sheet and goalscorer odds team

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here

Don’t miss out on your €200 bonus

You know football! Capitalise on your knowledge.

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