Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 35

With just four gameweeks remaining, every little decision has the potential to make or break a season. Whether chasing or being chased, the Bookies Advantage XI has got you covered.
Some high-upside defensive assets are joined by more “safer picks” up front as we try to navigate the trickiest part of the season.

The best captain options for gameweek 35 are analysed here

Player	Probability	Odds	Team	Position
Erling Haaland	70%	1.42	MCI	FWD
Mohamed Salah	53%	1.89	LIV	MID
Julian Alvarez	50%	2.02	MCI	FWD
Harry Kane	50%	2.02	TOT	FWD
Darwin Nunez	49%	2.06	LIV	FWD
Evan Ferguson	44%	2.28	BHA	FWD
Riyad Mahrez	43%	2.3	MCI	MID
Diego Jota	42%	2.38	LIV	MID
Cody Gakpo	41%	2.45	LIV	MID
Marcus Rashford	41%	2.45	MUN	MID
Danny Welbeck	40%	2.48	BHA	FWD
Callum Wilson	38%	2.63	NEW	FWD
Son Heung-Min	38%	2.65	TOT	MID
Ollie Watkins	36%	2.8	AVL	FWD
Carlos Vinicius	36%	2.8	FUL	FWD
Ivan Toney	35%	2.85	BRE	FWD
Joao Felix	35%	2.85	CHE	FWD
Kaoru Mitoma	35%	2.88	BHA	MID
Alex Mac Allister	35%	2.88	BHA	MID
Alexander Isak	35%	2.88	NEW	FWD
Roberto Firmino	34%	2.9	LIV	FWD
Phil Foden	34%	2.95	MCI	MID
Jamie Vardy	33%	3.05	LEI	FWD
Kevin De Bruyne	33%	3.05	MCI	MID
Gabriel Jesus	32%	3.1	ARS	FWD
Taiwo Awoniyi	32%	3.1	NFO	FWD
Sam Surridge	30%	3.3	NFO	FWD
James Maddison	30%	3.35	LEI	MID
Ilkay Gundogan	30%	3.35	MCI	MID
Brennan Johnson	30%	3.35	NFO	FWD
Eddie Nketiah	29%	3.4	ARS	FWD
Dominic Solanke	29%	3.4	BOU	FWD
Raheem Sterling	29%	3.4	CHE	MID
Wilfried Zaha	29%	3.5	CRY	MID
Wout Weghorst	29%	3.5	MUN	FWD
Bruno Fernandes	29%	3.5	MUN	MID
Richarlison	29%	3.5	TOT	FWD
Danny Ings	29%	3.5	WHU	FWD
Kai Havertz	28%	3.55	CHE	FWD
Kieffer Moore	27%	3.65	BOU	FWD
Patson Daka	27%	3.65	LEI	FWD
Harvey Barnes	27%	3.65	LEI	MID
Bukayo Saka	27%	3.7	ARS	MID
Antony	27%	3.75	MUN	MID
Gabriel Martinelli	26%	3.8	ARS	MID
Solly March	26%	3.8	BHA	MID
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	26%	3.85	EVE	FWD
Michail Antonio	25%	3.95	WHU	FWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta	25%	4	CRY	FWD
Jarrod Bowen	24%	4.1	WHU	MID
Raul Jimenez	24%	4.2	WOL	FWD
Odsonne Edouard	23%	4.3	CRY	FWD
Anthony Martial	23%	4.35	MUN	FWD
Matheus Cunha	23%	4.35	WOL	FWD
Leon Bailey	23%	4.4	AVL	MID
Bernardo Silva	23%	4.4	MCI	MID
Miguel Almiron	23%	4.4	NEW	MID
Leandro Trossard	22%	4.5	ARS	MID
Jack Grealish	22%	4.5	MCI	MID
Che Adams	22%	4.5	SOU	FWD
Said Benrahma	22%	4.5	WHU	MID
Pascal Gross	22%	4.6	BHA	MID
Daniel Podence	21%	4.7	WOL	MID
Christian Pulisic	21%	4.75	CHE	MID
Bobby Reid	21%	4.75	FUL	MID
Hee-Chan Hwang	21%	4.75	WOL	MID
Martin Odegaard	20%	4.9	ARS	MID
Emiliano Buendia	20%	4.9	AVL	MID
Harry Wilson	20%	4.9	FUL	MID
Jadon Sancho	20%	4.9	MUN	MID
Adam Armstrong	20%	5.1	SOU	FWD
Lucas Moura	20%	5.1	TOT	MID
Yoane Wissa	19%	5.2	BRE	MID
Philippe Coutinho	19%	5.3	AVL	MID
Diego Costa	19%	5.3	WOL	FWD
Philip Billing	19%	5.4	BOU	MID
Andreas Pereira	19%	5.4	FUL	MID
Eberechi Eze	18%	5.5	CRY	MID
Joe Willock	18%	5.5	NEW	MID
Kevin Schade	17%	5.8	BRE	FWD
Mykhaylo Mudryk	17%	5.8	CHE	MID
Dejan Kulusevski	17%	5.8	TOT	MID
Ivan Perisic	17%	6	TOT	DEF
Neal Maupay	16%	6.4	EVE	FWD
Bryan Mbeumo	15%	6.5	BRE	FWD
Christian Eriksen	15%	6.75	MUN	MID
Allan Saint-Maximin	14%	7	NEW	MID
Michael Olise	13%	7.5	CRY	MID
Demarai Gray	13%	7.5	EVE	MID
Jordan Ayew	13%	8	CRY	MID
Anthony Gordon	13%	8	NEW	MID
Bruno Guimaraes	13%	8	NEW	MID
Virgil van Dijk	10%	10.5	LIV	DEF
Trent Alexander-Arnold	9%	11	LIV	DEF
Granit Xhaka	9%	11.5	ARS	MID

No prizes for guessing who comes out on top of the goal-scoring odds going into Gameweek 35, Erling Haaland (70%) broke the Premier League record for most goals in a single season (35) at home to West Ham during the week and shows little signs of slowing down.
Although, to be fair, he hasn’t come up against a Big Sam side before, so maybe we should reserve our judgement on the striker just yet.
Leeds United will be praying for that “new manager bounce” but their trip to the Etihad this weekend is more likely to drag them ever closer to the drop.
Statistics are hardly even necessary at a time like this. Haaland is by far and away the best captaincy option in this gameweek.

Mohammed Salah (53%) now has eight goals in his last seven home matches, in a run stretching back to Gameweek 23, and is showing little signs of slowing down as he took away an 18-point haul from the double gameweek in 34.
Now he takes on Brentford, again at home, in yet another must-win game for the Reds. Thomas Frank’s men have improved form of late but still look less than convincing on the road, conceding five goals in their last three away games and could have been more if Chelsea were capable of finishing anything.
Salah is top for penalty area touches, shots, shots in the box, big chances and goals in the last six gameweeks.

Cody Gakpo (41%) joins his Liverpool teammate, the January signing has been ticking along nicely, with five returns in his last five matches including two double-digit returns.

Harry Kane (50%) continues to defy the innate “spursiness” of Spurs, returning in Gameweek 34 against Liverpool as his team threw away a last-minute point in truly comical fashion.
Kane now has 33 returns (25 goals and eight assists) in 34 starts this season and the Bookies expect him to add to it this week when he takes on Crystal Palace, who he 16 points against in Gameweek 19.
Although a better outfit under Roy Hodgson, Palace conceded three at home to West Ham showing they can still be got at.

Marcus Rashford (41%) continues to tick along though it seems he and Man United are struggling to reach the heights they did earlier in the season.
He takes on a West Ham side who have conceded nine goals in their last three games and may be missing key players in defensive positions come this weekend.

Alexis MacAllister (35%) left it very late to return in his double gameweek, a 99th-minute penalty rewarding owners patience. Another home game versus Everton who look dreadful makes him an easy inclusion in our XI.

On the bench for us this week is Jacob Murphy (£4.1m) who offers excellent value and Sam Greenwood (£4.0m) who allows us to pump all our money into the starting XI.

Team	Clean Sheet Probability	Odds
Man City	52%	1.94
Brighton	50%	2.02
Liverpool	40%	2.48
Tottenham	39%	2.55
Nottingham Forest	38%	2.6
Chelsea	38%	2.63
Aston Villa	36%	2.8
Man Utd	32%	3.15
Wolves	30%	3.3
Leicester	29%	3.45
Fulham	28%	3.55
Southampton	27%	3.7
Newcastle	27%	3.75
Bournemouth	26%	3.9
Arsenal	25%	4
West Ham	21%	4.7
Crystal Palace	20%	5
Everton	13%	8
Brentford	12%	8.5
Leeds	9%	11

Manchester City (52%) finally kept a clean sheet this gameweek in the second half of their double against West Ham, though they rode their luck at times.
This week Guardiola finally gets to test himself against a manager equal to him when Big Sam’s Leeds come to town.
Man City remain by far and away the team with the best expected goals conceded over the last six gameweeks (4.20). Leeds United sit 13th for expected goals (xG) in the same time making it easy to see why the Bookies favour City so much.
John Stones and Nathan Ake seem like good choices for a defensive double up, Stones is playing very advanced these last few games and Ake’s aerial threat was clear for all to see in midweek.

Liverpool (50%) also finally kept a clean sheet, after five games without, during the week at home to Fulham thought they too, rode their luck.
Brentford travel to Anfield this gameweek, with Thomas Frank’s men failing to score in three of their last six away matches while having an open play xG of just 5.11 (11th).
Meanwhile Liverpool have tightened up somewhat as they sit 7th for xGC in their last six home matches.
Trent Alexander-Arnold looks a no brainer here. Since moving to his new role, he is top amongst defenders for big chances created (6) and expected goal involvement (3.09).

Brighton (40%) made it double clean sheets in the double gameweek, rewarding owners massively with three of their defensive assets making the FPL Team of the Week.
In their last six home matches, only Manchester City have a better xGC than Brighton who sit in second with four goals conceded from an xG of 5.63.
They play Everton in Gameweek 35 who are in dire straits, without a win in seven, scoring just five goals in their last six games (joint 19th).
Jason Steele has now returned 25 points in his last three games and seems firmly the number one choice in this Brighton side and with his price still just £4.0m he’s an easy choice between the sticks for us this gameweek.

Unbelievably, Spurs (39%) make up the fourth most likely team to keep a clean sheet this gameweek, despite the fact they haven’t kept a team scoreless since Gameweek 25 when they did so at home to Chelsea.
They’ve gone through two managers since then and conceded 22 goals!
They welcome Crystal Palace this gameweek and perhaps the Bookies are relying on the “Beach Theory” as Roy Hodgson’s men now have largely nothing to play for as they are safe from relegation for this season.
Pedro Porro now has two goals and one assist since joining in January and could be an explosive differential for any managers in the market for a cheap (only £4.8m) defender this gameweek.

On the bench for us in defence are Daniel Iversen (£3.9m) and Hugo Bueno (£3.8m) two great budget enablers.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here