Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 36

Another double gameweek provides the opportunity to make big gains as we hurtle toward the end of the season.
Surprisingly, no Brighton players make the Bookies Advantage starting XI this week but making sure you nail your three Newcastle picks could be key in shooting up the rankings.

The best captain options for gameweek 36 are analysed here

Player	Team	Probability	Probability match 2	Combined probability
Callum Wilson	NEW	45%	42%	68%
Alexander Isak	NEW	41%	40%	64%
Erling Haaland	MCI	64%		64%
Mohamed Salah	LIV	53%		53%
Marcus Rashford	MUN	51%		51%
Ivan Toney	BRE	47%		47%
Darwin Nunez	LIV	44%		44%
Evan Ferguson	BHA	25%	25%	44%
Aleksandar Mitrovic	FUL	44%		44%
Harry Kane	TOT	43%		43%
Danny Welbeck	BHA	24%	24%	42%
Ollie Watkins	AVL	41%		41%
Joao Felix	CHE	41%		41%
Wilfried Zaha	CRY	41%		41%
Joe Willock	NEW	24%	21%	40%
Julian Alvarez	MCI	40%		40%
Miguel Almiron	NEW	23%	21%	39%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	CHE	38%		38%
Jean-Philippe Mateta	CRY	38%		38%
Diego Jota	LIV	38%		38%
Gabriel Jesus	ARS	37%		37%
Kaoru Mitoma	BHA	21%	20%	37%
Alexis Mac Allister	BHA	20%	21%	37%
Eddie Nketiah	ARS	36%		36%
Cody Gakpo	LIV	36%		36%
Kai Havertz	CHE	35%		35%
Odsonne Edouard	CRY	35%		35%
Wout Weghorst	MUN	35%		35%
Bruno Fernandes	MUN	35%		35%
Bukayo Saka	ARS	34%		34%
Roberto Firmino	LIV	34%		34%
Gabriel Martinelli	ARS	33%		33%
Allan Saint-Maximin	NEW	18%	16%	32%
Raheem Sterling	CHE	31%		31%
Dominic Solanke	BOU	30%		30%
Riyad Mahrez	MCI	30%		30%
Bruno Guimaraes	NEW	16%	15%	29%
Jamie Vardy	LEI	29%		29%
Anthony Martial	MUN	29%		29%
Son Heung-Min	TOT	28%		28%
Anthony Gordon	NEW	15%	14%	27%
Phil Foden	MCI	27%		27%
Leandro Trossard	ARS	27%		27%
Patrick Bamford	LEE	27%		27%
Eberechi Eze	CRY	26%		26%
Che Adams	SOU	26%		26%
Martin Odegaard	ARS	26%		26%
Yoane Wissa	BRE	26%		26%
Danny Ings	WHU	26%		26%
Kieffer Moore	BOU	25%		25%
Kevin De Bruyne	MCI	25%		25%
Leon Bailey	AVL	25%		25%
Jadon Sancho	MUN	25%		25%
Emiliano Buendia	AVL	24%		24%
Adam Armstrong	SOU	24%		24%
Christian Pulisic	CHE	24%		24%
James Maddison	LEI	24%		24%
Harvey Barnes	LEI	23%		23%
Philippe Coutinho	AVL	23%		23%
Ilkay Gundogan	MCI	23%		23%
Pascal Gross	BHA	12%	13%	23%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	EVE	23%		23%
Rodrigo	LEE	23%		23%
Patson Daka	LEI	23%		23%
Antony	MUN	23%		23%
Richarlison	TOT	23%		23%
Michail Antonio	WHU	23%		23%
Bryan Mbeumo	BRE	22%		22%
Jarrod Bowen	WHU	21%		21%
Taiwo Awoniyi	NFO	20%		20%
Said Benrahma	WHU	19%		19%
Mykhaylo Mudryk	CHE	19%		19%
Sam Surridge	NFO	19%		19%
Harry Wilson	FUL	18%		18%
Christian Eriksen	MUN	18%		18%
Raul Jimenez	WOL	17%		17%
Bobby Reid	FUL	17%		17%
Jack Grealish	MCI	17%		17%
Lucas Paquetá	WHU	17%		17%
Matheus Cunha	WOL	17%		17%
Bernardo Silva	MCI	17%		17%
Brennan Johnson	NFO	17%		17%
Wilfred Gnonto	LEE	16%		16%
Hee-Chan Hwang	WOL	16%		16%
Daniel Podence	WOL	15%		15%
Neal Maupay	EVE	14%		14%
Dejan Kulusevski	TOT	13%		13%
Diego Costa	WOL	13%		13%
Demarai Gray	EVE	13%		13%
Granit Xhaka	ARS	11%		11%
Virgil van Dijk	LIV	10%		10%
Trent Alexander-Arnold	LIV	9%		9%
Mathias Jensen	BRE	8%		8%
Brenden Aaronson	LEE	8%		8%

Callum Wilson (68%) narrowly beats Alexander Isak (64%) in terms of goal scoring odds this gameweek, however due to the expected minutes of both players, it’s Alexander Isak that gets the nod for us.
The Swede has ten goals and one assist in 13 starts in the Premier League and is expected to start both games in the double while Wilson, albeit in red hot form, is expected to start only once.
Isak will be hoping to add to his tally when he takes on a lacklustre Leeds United limping ever closer towards the abyss, as well as a jaded Brighton side who look to be struggling with the demands of playing twice a week.
Both he and Wilson are great options, but the minutes concern just shades it for us. Alexander Isak takes our captain’s armband for Gameweek 36.

Erling Haaland (64%) has to settle for vice-captaincy this gameweek as he travels away to Everton, no doubt buoyed by their fantastic 5-1 win away at Brighton in Gameweek 35.
Nothing more can really be said about the City striker who was desperately unlucky not to score against Leeds last week where he missed three big chances, hit the woodwork and even passed up a penalty!
He’ll be eager to put that right this weekend and with the title still not quite wrapped up, Guardiola is expected to put out a strong lineup.

Mohammed Salah (53%) has been on an incredible run of home form, but his away form isn’t bad either. Three goals in his last four away games should give owners encouragement going into this gameweek as Liverpool continue to hunt down Manchester United for fourth spot.
This week they travel to Leicester who just conceded five to “on the beach” Fulham. In fact, the Foxes have conceded 12 goals in the five games since Dean Smith took over (17th).

Marcus Rashford (51%) has blanked in his last two games but he (and Manchester United) are a different beast at Old Trafford. Rashford has five returns in his last five games at home (three goals, two assists) and will be confident of adding to that this gameweek when he welcomes Wolves who have kept just one clean sheet away all season, coming against Bournemouth in Gameweek 5.

Ivan Toney (47%) somewhat surprisingly makes the starting XI despite only having a single gameweek. The Bees forward has scored every second game for 14 weeks in a row now and since he blanked last weekend, it only stands to reason he’s a guaranteed goal scorer when he welcomes West Ham to the Gtech Community stadium this gameweek.

Wilfried Zaha (41%) is another surprise inclusion on this list, but has looked lively since returning from injury in Gameweek 34 and this week takes on Bournemouth, now with safety all but secured, perhaps their level may just drop off and provide the opposition with more opportunities to score.

Our bench this week consists of Kaoru Mitoma & Alexis MacAllister (both 37%) as Brighton have struggled in an attacking sense in recent weeks and they have two tough fixtures in Arsenal and Newcastle both away from home.

Team	CS Probability	CS Probability game 2	Combined probability
Newcastle	38%	34%	59%
Man City	52%		52%
Man Utd	50%		50%
Chelsea	50%		50%
Crystal Palace	40%		40%
Brentford	38%		38%
Liverpool	37%		37%
Arsenal	36%		36%
Brighton	17%	20%	34%
Aston Villa	31%		31%
Fulham	31%		31%
Southampton	29%		29%
Tottenham	26%		26%
West Ham	25%		25%
Bournemouth	22%		22%
Leeds	17%		17%
Nottingham Forest	17%		17%
Leicester	14%		14%
Wolves	14%		14%
Everton	13%		13%

Newcastle United (59%) top the charts for clean sheet odds going into Gameweek 36 where they have a double of Leeds United (away) before playing Brighton (home).
The Magpies have been desperately unlucky to keep just one clean sheet in their last seven home matches conceding just one goal in four of those games.
Meanwhile, Leeds look rudderless and abject in attack, even at home. They have just six goals from open play in their last six home games.
Their other opponent Brighton look tired and will be even more so by the time they make it up to St. James park on Thursday night.
Kieran Trippier and Fabian Schar look the best choices for a double up here, they have by far the most expected goal involvement (xGI) amongst Newcastle defenders.

Manchester City (52%) are another side frustrating managers where clean sheets are concerned, having kept just one in their last seven. The underlying data is still good however, and the Bookies give them a good chance of a shut out at Everton in Gameweek 36.
Despite scoring five away from home in Gameweek 35, Everton sit 18th for expected goals (xG) from open play over their last six home games. Given the stakes for both sides, a cagey game is likely with Man City dominating possession.
John Stones looks a good pick here. Playing slightly more advanced of late, he often pops up on the edge of the box and it’s not beyond him to play a killer pass or even have a pop at goal himself.

Manchester United (50%) have also been somewhat unlucky not to come away with two clean sheets from their last two games, conceding a 99th minute penalty against Brighton, before a howler from De Gea away at West Ham made it two 0-1 losses in a row.
Ten Hag’s men sit first for goals conceded at home in their last six matches (2), as well as second for expected goals conceded (xGC) in the same time period (5.66)
Wolves on the other hand have been really poor away from home, sitting 20th for goals scored in their last six away (4), as well as 19th for xG (4.95).

Chelsea (50%) are another surprise inclusion in the Bookies Advantage starting XI this week as they welcome Nottingham Forest to Stamford Bridge having not kept a clean sheet since they hosted Liverpool in Gameweek 29.
The underlying data does suggest a Chelsea clean sheet here. Since Gameweek 29, the Blues are fifth in the league for xGC (7.53), while Forest are rock bottom for open play xG over the same period (2.34).
Kepa Arrizabalaga is always capable of making a few saves to make a ten point haul. He gets the nod for us between the sticks this week.

Our bench this week consists of Daniel Iversen (£3.8m), as well as Marc Guehi with a reasonable chance of a clean sheet (40%) at home to Bournemouth.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here