Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 37

The last double gameweek of the season provides managers with their best chance of making big gains before the end of the season.
With that in mind, the Bookies XI contains nine doublers this week as we look to attack Gameweek 37 rocket up the rankings.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Player	Team	Probability	Probability match 2	Combined probability
Erling Haaland	MCI	67%	54%	85%
Marcus Rashford	MUN	52%	46%	74%
Julian Alvarez	MCI	44%	37%	65%
Evan Ferguson	BHA	50%	29%	64%
Bruno Fernandes	MUN	35%	36%	58%
Danny Welbeck	BHA	43%	25%	58%
Wout Weghorst	MUN	33%	34%	56%
Riyad Mahrez	MCI	32%	35%	55%
Alexis Mac Allister	BHA	41%	24%	55%
Antony	MUN	35%	30%	55%
Callum Wilson	NEW	54%		54%
Kaoru Mitoma	BHA	41%	22%	54%
Mohamed Salah	LIV	53%		53%
Phil Foden	MCI	33%	27%	51%
Alexander Isak	NEW	50%		50%
Anthony Martial	MUN	29%	28%	49%
Kevin De Bruyne	MCI	31%	26%	49%
Harry Kane	TOT	47%		47%
Ilkay Gundogan	MCI	29%	24%	46%
Aleksandar Mitrovic	FUL	44%		44%
Darwin Nunez	LIV	44%		44%
Jadon Sancho	MUN	25%	25%	44%
Gabriel Jesus	ARS	43%		43%
Bukayo Saka	ARS	38%		38%
Diego Jota	LIV	38%		38%
Gabriel Martinelli	ARS	38%		38%
Eddie Nketiah	ARS	38%		38%
Pascal Gross	BHA	27%	14%	37%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	CHE	16%	25%	37%
Joao Felix	CHE	15%	24%	36%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	EVE	35%		35%
Kai Havertz	CHE	15%	23%	35%
Jack Grealish	MCI	20%	17%	34%
Bernardo Silva	MCI	21%	17%	34%
Roberto Firmino	LIV	34%		34%
Son Heung-Min	TOT	34%		34%
Cody Gakpo	LIV	33%		33%
Martin Odegaard	ARS	33%		33%
Wilfried Zaha	CRY	33%		33%
Christian Eriksen	MUN	17%	18%	32%
Carlos Vinicius	FUL	32%		32%
Raheem Sterling	CHE	14%	20%	32%
Danny Ings	WHU	32%		32%
Leandro Trossard	ARS	31%		31%
Patrick Bamford	LEE	31%		31%
Miguel Almiron	NEW	31%		31%
Michail Antonio	WHU	29%		29%
Richarlison	TOT	29%		29%
Jean-Philippe Mateta	CRY	29%		29%
Ollie Watkins	AVL	28%		28%
Taiwo Awoniyi	NFO	28%		28%
Kelechi Iheanacho	LEI	27%		27%
Dominic Solanke	BOU	27%		27%
Rodrigo	LEE	27%		27%
Odsonne Edouard	CRY	26%		26%
Jarrod Bowen	WHU	26%		26%
Kieffer Moore	BOU	26%		26%
Said Benrahma	WHU	26%		26%
Raul Jimenez	WOL	26%		26%
Yoane Wissa	BRE	25%		25%
Allan Saint-Maximin	NEW	25%		25%
Matheus Cunha	WOL	24%		24%
Joe Willock	NEW	24%		24%
Christian Pulisic	CHE	11%	15%	24%
James Maddison	LEI	23%		23%
Sam Surridge	NFO	23%		23%
Jamie Vardy	LEI	23%		23%
Bryan Mbeumo	BRE	23%		23%
Lucas Paquetá	WHU	23%		23%
Daniel Podence	WOL	23%		23%
Neal Maupay	EVE	22%		22%
Lucas Moura	TOT	22%		22%
Hee-Chan Hwang	WOL	22%		22%
Bruno Guimaraes	NEW	22%		22%
Brennan Johnson	NFO	22%		22%
Anthony Gordon	NEW	21%		21%
Eberechi Eze	CRY	20%		20%
Diego Costa	WOL	20%		20%
Harvey Barnes	LEI	20%		20%
Chris Wood	NFO	19%		19%
Dejan Kulusevski	TOT	19%		19%
Patson Daka	LEI	19%		19%
Leon Bailey	AVL	18%		18%
Wilfred Gnonto	LEE	18%		18%
Bobby Reid	FUL	18%		18%
Adam Armstrong	SOU	18%		18%
Demarai Gray	EVE	17%		17%
Ivan Perisic	TOT	17%		17%
Emiliano Buendia	AVL	17%		17%
Harry Wilson	FUL	17%		17%
Mykhaylo Mudryk	CHE	8%	9%	16%
Philippe Coutinho	AVL	16%		16%
Che Adams	SOU	16%		16%
Granit Xhaka	ARS	13%		13%
Virgil van Dijk	LIV	10%		10%
Trent Alexander-Arnold	LIV	10%		10%
Brenden Aaronson	LEE	9%		9%
Mathias Jensen	BRE	8%		8%

Erling Haaland (84%) is once more the stand-out captain this gameweek as Manchester City inch ever closer to claiming the Premier League title.
His opponents this gameweek are Chelsea at home before a trip to Brighton. Chelsea haven’t managed a single clean sheet in their last six games and have conceded 11 goals in that time.
Brighton meanwhile are a very mixed bag, beating Arsenal and Man United whilst keeping a clean sheet before losing to both Everton and Newcastle, conceding nine goals in the process.
Haaland has been the best captaincy choice all year and unless you’re trying to chase down a massive lead, he’s the smart choice again this gameweek.

Marcus Rashford (74%) appears to be back in contention to play this gameweek after picking up a knock which kept him out last weekend.
This week he takes on Bournemouth, who have a very poor goals conceded record against top six opposition, even at home, this season. The second half of his double sees him take on Chelsea who as pointed out before have terrible defensive stats.
With many selling the Man United winger early in the week, he may just punish those for their impatience.

Bruno Fernandes (58%) has the most chances created (26), big chances created (10) and shots (23) amongst all midfielders over the last six gameweeks. He’ll be hoping to turn that into FPL points this gameweek when he plays Bournemouth and Chelsea, two teams with nothing to play for who are vulnerable down their centre.

Evan Ferguson (64%) also returned to action in Gameweek 36, playing 110 minutes over the two games. He’s expected to start vs Southampton, who conceded to both of Fulham’s central strikers last week showing they are weak down the middle of their defence.
He then comes up against Man City who may already be champions and may rotate massively in that game.
Ferguson probably falls in the “fun punt” territory and could be a shrewd inclusion in your Gameweek 37 team.
Alexis Mac Allister (55%) was benched in midweek so should expect to start these two games in the double. He narrowly beats Mitoma (54%) in terms of goal scoring odds but in terms of expected goal involvement, he beats him quite comprehensively (3.98 vs 2.32) over the last six gameweeks.

Callum Wilson (54%) is one of only two single gameweekers in our starting XI. The Newcastle talisman returned three goals and an assist in Gameweek 36 to delight those who gambled on the striker. This gameweek he takes on a Leicester City low on confidence with no clean sheets and 15 goals conceded in their last six games.

Mohammed Salah (53%) also makes the team after his hat-trick of assists vs Leicester on Monday night. He plays a Villa side who have just been starting to wobble of late failing to win in their last three away matches.

The bench this week is made up of Miguel Almiron (31%) who looked very dangerous vs Brighton on Thursday night.

Team	CS Probability	CS Probability game 2	Combined probability
Man City	54%	33%	70%
Man Utd	43%	38%	65%
Brighton	53%	18%	62%
Newcastle	47%		47%
Liverpool	42%		42%
Arsenal	41%		41%
Tottenham	38%		38%
Fulham	34%		34%
Everton	33%		33%
Wolves	32%		32%
West Ham	31%		31%
Crystal Palace	29%		29%
Leeds	26%		26%
Chelsea	10%	16%	25%
Brentford	20%		20%
Nottingham Forest	15%		15%
Aston Villa	14%		14%
Bournemouth	13%		13%
Leicester	13%		13%
Southampton	8%		8%

Manchester City (70%) have now kept two clean sheets in their last three games and have been given the best chance of doing so again in one of their two games this double gameweek.
First up, they take on Chelsea who look limp in attack having been kept scoreless in four of their last eight games, they currently sit 16th for expected goals (xG) in that time.
Next, Guardiola’s men take on Brighton, who have mixed results of late. It’s hard to find a statistical basis for a clean sheet against Brighton but with it being the second game of the double, any points from this match are to be considered bonus points.
The hardest part in all this is predicting who will actually play in both games. Ruben Dias has the most minutes of any defender over the last 14 gameweeks, so seems a reasonable pick. He is joined in a double up by the second most nailed defensive asset in Ederson (cue Scott Carson’s first start of the season!)

Manchester United (65%) are given the second best odds of at least one clean sheet over the two games of their double as they look to improve on their impressive 16 clean sheets so far this season.
They will have a good chance of doing so too when they first play Bournemouth away. Ten Hag’s men have a good away record against teams from the bottom half, taking 23 points from 27 available and conceding just five goals in those nine matches.
They then take on Chelsea at home where United have a good defensive record, with Chelsea’s poor attacking stats being highlighted above.
Luke Shaw seems the best pick here, now playing again at left-back he should have the opportunity for returns at both ends of the pitch.

Brighton (62%) have three clean sheets in their last five games, though they did concede nine goals in their other two, showing their inconsistency as the games pile up at the end of the season.
They will be confident of adding another when they host Southampton in the first half of their double. The Saints were officially relegated last week and have failed to score in four of their last eight gameweeks, sitting 19th for xG in that time.
The Seagulls will then welcome Man City to the Amex who may already be crowned champions at that stage, while unlikely to be kept scoreless, we can expect a lot of rotation and Brighton’s defensive record against big six sides has been very good this year.
Estupinan scored a massive 17 points in the first half of his double this gameweek. His haul potential is clear for anyone to see and is an obvious choice in our XI this gameweek.

The bench in defence this week is made up of Kieran Trippier (47%) who managed two assists on Thursday night as well as Hugo Bueno (33%) who has a decent home game vs Everton.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here