Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 37

The last double gameweek of the season provides managers with their best chance of making big gains before the end of the season.
With that in mind, the Bookies XI contains nine doublers this week as we look to attack Gameweek 37 rocket up the rankings.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscorer Odds

PlayerTeamProbabilityProbability match 2Combined probability
Erling HaalandMCI67%54%85%
Marcus RashfordMUN52%46%74%
Julian AlvarezMCI44%37%65%
Evan FergusonBHA50%29%64%
Bruno FernandesMUN35%36%58%
Danny WelbeckBHA43%25%58%
Wout WeghorstMUN33%34%56%
Riyad MahrezMCI32%35%55%
Alexis Mac AllisterBHA41%24%55%
Callum WilsonNEW54%54%
Kaoru MitomaBHA41%22%54%
Mohamed SalahLIV53%53%
Phil FodenMCI33%27%51%
Alexander IsakNEW50%50%
Anthony MartialMUN29%28%49%
Kevin De BruyneMCI31%26%49%
Harry KaneTOT47%47%
Ilkay GundoganMCI29%24%46%
Aleksandar MitrovicFUL44%44%
Darwin NunezLIV44%44%
Jadon SanchoMUN25%25%44%
Gabriel JesusARS43%43%
Bukayo SakaARS38%38%
Diego JotaLIV38%38%
Gabriel MartinelliARS38%38%
Eddie NketiahARS38%38%
Pascal GrossBHA27%14%37%
Pierre-Emerick AubameyangCHE16%25%37%
Joao FelixCHE15%24%36%
Dominic Calvert-LewinEVE35%35%
Kai HavertzCHE15%23%35%
Jack GrealishMCI20%17%34%
Bernardo SilvaMCI21%17%34%
Roberto FirminoLIV34%34%
Son Heung-MinTOT34%34%
Cody GakpoLIV33%33%
Martin OdegaardARS33%33%
Wilfried ZahaCRY33%33%
Christian EriksenMUN17%18%32%
Carlos ViniciusFUL32%32%
Raheem SterlingCHE14%20%32%
Danny IngsWHU32%32%
Leandro TrossardARS31%31%
Patrick BamfordLEE31%31%
Miguel AlmironNEW31%31%
Michail AntonioWHU29%29%
Jean-Philippe MatetaCRY29%29%
Ollie WatkinsAVL28%28%
Taiwo AwoniyiNFO28%28%
Kelechi IheanachoLEI27%27%
Dominic SolankeBOU27%27%
Odsonne EdouardCRY26%26%
Jarrod BowenWHU26%26%
Kieffer MooreBOU26%26%
Said BenrahmaWHU26%26%
Raul JimenezWOL26%26%
Yoane WissaBRE25%25%
Allan Saint-MaximinNEW25%25%
Matheus CunhaWOL24%24%
Joe WillockNEW24%24%
Christian PulisicCHE11%15%24%
James MaddisonLEI23%23%
Sam SurridgeNFO23%23%
Jamie VardyLEI23%23%
Bryan MbeumoBRE23%23%
Lucas PaquetáWHU23%23%
Daniel PodenceWOL23%23%
Neal MaupayEVE22%22%
Lucas MouraTOT22%22%
Hee-Chan HwangWOL22%22%
Bruno GuimaraesNEW22%22%
Brennan JohnsonNFO22%22%
Anthony GordonNEW21%21%
Eberechi EzeCRY20%20%
Diego CostaWOL20%20%
Harvey BarnesLEI20%20%
Chris WoodNFO19%19%
Dejan KulusevskiTOT19%19%
Patson DakaLEI19%19%
Leon BaileyAVL18%18%
Wilfred GnontoLEE18%18%
Bobby ReidFUL18%18%
Adam ArmstrongSOU18%18%
Demarai GrayEVE17%17%
Ivan PerisicTOT17%17%
Emiliano BuendiaAVL17%17%
Harry WilsonFUL17%17%
Mykhaylo MudrykCHE8%9%16%
Philippe CoutinhoAVL16%16%
Che AdamsSOU16%16%
Granit XhakaARS13%13%
Virgil van DijkLIV10%10%
Trent Alexander-ArnoldLIV10%10%
Brenden AaronsonLEE9%9%
Mathias JensenBRE8%8%
Goalscorer odds Gameweek 37

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Erling Haaland (84%) is once more the stand-out captain this gameweek as Manchester City inch ever closer to claiming the Premier League title.
His opponents this gameweek are Chelsea at home before a trip to Brighton. Chelsea haven’t managed a single clean sheet in their last six games and have conceded 11 goals in that time.
Brighton meanwhile are a very mixed bag, beating Arsenal and Man United whilst keeping a clean sheet before losing to both Everton and Newcastle, conceding nine goals in the process.
Haaland has been the best captaincy choice all year and unless you’re trying to chase down a massive lead, he’s the smart choice again this gameweek.

Marcus Rashford (74%) appears to be back in contention to play this gameweek after picking up a knock which kept him out last weekend.
This week he takes on Bournemouth, who have a very poor goals conceded record against top six opposition, even at home, this season. The second half of his double sees him take on Chelsea who as pointed out before have terrible defensive stats.
With many selling the Man United winger early in the week, he may just punish those for their impatience.

Bruno Fernandes (58%) has the most chances created (26), big chances created (10) and shots (23) amongst all midfielders over the last six gameweeks. He’ll be hoping to turn that into FPL points this gameweek when he plays Bournemouth and Chelsea, two teams with nothing to play for who are vulnerable down their centre.

Evan Ferguson (64%) also returned to action in Gameweek 36, playing 110 minutes over the two games. He’s expected to start vs Southampton, who conceded to both of Fulham’s central strikers last week showing they are weak down the middle of their defence.
He then comes up against Man City who may already be champions and may rotate massively in that game.
Ferguson probably falls in the “fun punt” territory and could be a shrewd inclusion in your Gameweek 37 team.
Alexis Mac Allister (55%) was benched in midweek so should expect to start these two games in the double. He narrowly beats Mitoma (54%) in terms of goal scoring odds but in terms of expected goal involvement, he beats him quite comprehensively (3.98 vs 2.32) over the last six gameweeks.

Callum Wilson (54%) is one of only two single gameweekers in our starting XI. The Newcastle talisman returned three goals and an assist in Gameweek 36 to delight those who gambled on the striker. This gameweek he takes on a Leicester City low on confidence with no clean sheets and 15 goals conceded in their last six games.

Mohammed Salah (53%) also makes the team after his hat-trick of assists vs Leicester on Monday night. He plays a Villa side who have just been starting to wobble of late failing to win in their last three away matches.

The bench this week is made up of Miguel Almiron (31%) who looked very dangerous vs Brighton on Thursday night.

Clean sheet odds

TeamCS ProbabilityCS Probability game 2Combined probability
Man City54%33%70%
Man Utd43%38%65%
West Ham31%31%
Crystal Palace29%29%
Nottingham Forest15%15%
Aston Villa14%14%
Clean sheet odds Gameweek 37

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Manchester City (70%) have now kept two clean sheets in their last three games and have been given the best chance of doing so again in one of their two games this double gameweek.
First up, they take on Chelsea who look limp in attack having been kept scoreless in four of their last eight games, they currently sit 16th for expected goals (xG) in that time.
Next, Guardiola’s men take on Brighton, who have mixed results of late. It’s hard to find a statistical basis for a clean sheet against Brighton but with it being the second game of the double, any points from this match are to be considered bonus points.
The hardest part in all this is predicting who will actually play in both games. Ruben Dias has the most minutes of any defender over the last 14 gameweeks, so seems a reasonable pick. He is joined in a double up by the second most nailed defensive asset in Ederson (cue Scott Carson’s first start of the season!)

Manchester United (65%) are given the second best odds of at least one clean sheet over the two games of their double as they look to improve on their impressive 16 clean sheets so far this season.
They will have a good chance of doing so too when they first play Bournemouth away. Ten Hag’s men have a good away record against teams from the bottom half, taking 23 points from 27 available and conceding just five goals in those nine matches.
They then take on Chelsea at home where United have a good defensive record, with Chelsea’s poor attacking stats being highlighted above.
Luke Shaw seems the best pick here, now playing again at left-back he should have the opportunity for returns at both ends of the pitch.

Brighton (62%) have three clean sheets in their last five games, though they did concede nine goals in their other two, showing their inconsistency as the games pile up at the end of the season.
They will be confident of adding another when they host Southampton in the first half of their double. The Saints were officially relegated last week and have failed to score in four of their last eight gameweeks, sitting 19th for xG in that time.
The Seagulls will then welcome Man City to the Amex who may already be crowned champions at that stage, while unlikely to be kept scoreless, we can expect a lot of rotation and Brighton’s defensive record against big six sides has been very good this year.
Estupinan scored a massive 17 points in the first half of his double this gameweek. His haul potential is clear for anyone to see and is an obvious choice in our XI this gameweek.

The bench in defence this week is made up of Kieran Trippier (47%) who managed two assists on Thursday night as well as Hugo Bueno (33%) who has a decent home game vs Everton.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here