Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 38

And so it ends.

With Gameweek 38 upon us, it’s do-or-die time. The Bookies Advantage XI has plenty of ultra differentials in defence this week while up front, the usual suspects remain but with a differential captaincy the chance for big gains still exists.

Don’t miss our analysis of the best captaincy options for the final gameweek here

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscorer odds gameweek 38

Mohamed Salah55%1.83LIVMID
Erling Haaland54%1.85MCIFWD
Harry Kane51%1.97TOTFWD
Marcus Rashford50%2MUNMID
Darwin Nunez50%2.02LIVFWD
Ollie Watkins48%2.1AVLFWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin46%2.16EVEFWD
Gabriel Jesus45%2.2ARSFWD
Diego Jota45%2.2LIVMID
Odsonne Edouard45%2.23CRYFWD
Eddie Nketiah43%2.35ARSFWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta43%2.35CRYFWD
Callum Wilson43%2.35NEWFWD
Jamie Vardy41%2.45LEIFWD
Kelechi Iheanacho41%2.45LEIFWD
Roberto Firmino41%2.45LIVFWD
Bukayo Saka38%2.6ARSMID
Eberechi Eze37%2.7CRYMID
Aleksandar Mitrovic36%2.75FULFWD
Julian Alvarez36%2.75MCIFWD
James Maddison36%2.8LEIMID
Cody Gakpo36%2.8LIVMID
Patrick Bamford35%2.85LEEFWD
Son Heung-Min35%2.85TOTMID
Wout Weghorst35%2.88MUNFWD
Bruno Fernandes35%2.88MUNMID
Neal Maupay34%2.95EVEFWD
Alexander Isak33%3NEWFWD
Leandro Trossard32%3.1ARSMID
Harvey Barnes32%3.15LEIMID
Evan Ferguson31%3.2BHAFWD
Patson Daka31%3.2LEIFWD
Riyad Mahrez31%3.2MCIMID
Anthony Martial30%3.3MUNFWD
Demarai Gray30%3.35EVEMID
Martin Odegaard29%3.45ARSMID
Yoane Wissa29%3.5BREMID
Danny Ings28%3.55WHUFWD
Taiwo Awoniyi28%3.6NFOFWD
Leon Bailey27%3.65AVLMID
Kai Havertz27%3.65CHEFWD
Danny Welbeck27%3.75BHAFWD
Raheem Sterling27%3.75CHEMID
Emiliano Buendia26%3.8AVLMID
Dominic Solanke26%3.8BOUFWD
Carlos Vinicius26%3.8FULFWD
Joao Felix26%3.85CHEFWD
Jadon Sancho26%3.9MUNMID
Bryan Mbeumo25%3.95BREFWD
Wilfred Gnonto25%3.95LEEMID
Michael Olise25%4CRYMID
Kaoru Mitoma24%4.1BHAMID
Phil Foden24%4.1MCIMID
Kevin De Bruyne24%4.1MCIMID
Michail Antonio24%4.1WHUFWD
Alex Mac Allister24%4.2BHAMID
Sam Surridge23%4.3NFOFWD
Crysencio Summerville23%4.4LEEMID
Adam Armstrong23%4.4SOUFWD
Jarrod Bowen23%4.4WHUMID
Ilkay Gundogan22%4.5MCIMID
Brennan Johnson21%4.75NFOFWD
Lucas Moura21%4.8TOTMID
Raul Jimenez21%4.8WOLFWD
Kieffer Moore20%4.9BOUFWD
Che Adams20%4.9SOUFWD
Said Benrahma20%4.9WHUMID
Miguel Almiron20%5NEWMID
Kevin Schade19%5.2BREFWD
Matheus Cunha19%5.25WOLFWD
Christian Eriksen19%5.3MUNMID
Christian Pulisic19%5.4CHEMID
Mason Mount18%5.6CHEMID
Joe Willock18%5.6NEWMID
Daniel Podence18%5.6WOLMID
Hee-Chan Hwang18%5.6WOLMID
Dejan Kulusevski17%5.8TOTMID
Ivan Perisic17%6TOTDEF
Bernardo Silva16%6.25MCIMID
Jack Grealish16%6.4MCIMID
Pascal Gross15%6.5BHAMID
Diego Costa15%6.5WOLFWD
Allan Saint-Maximin15%6.75NEWMID
Granit Xhaka14%7ARSMID
Philip Billing14%7BOUMID
Mykhaylo Mudryk14%7CHEMID
Bobby Reid14%7FULMID
Bruno Guimaraes14%7NEWMID
Harry Wilson13%7.5FULMID
Anthony Gordon13%8NEWMID
Virgil van Dijk12%8.5LIVDEF
Trent Alexander-Arnold9%11LIVDEF
Goalscorer odds gameweek 38

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Mohammed Salah (55%) just edges out Erling Haaland (54%) in the goal-scoring odds going into the final gameweek.
Mo Salah has only blanked once in his last nine games and has returned double digits in two of his last three away games, as no midfielder has more FPL points than Salah over the last six gameweeks.
This weekend he travels to a Southampton side with the worst home record in the league, conceding 33 goals (20th), keeping just one clean sheet (20th) and picking up just 10 points in the process (20th).
The Saints look like a beaten docket, and we’re ready to go all in on Salah cashing in big time come Sunday.

Despite scoring just one goal in his last three starts the Bookies favour Haaland (54%) to end the campaign well, as he looks to extend his record-breaking season beyond 36 goals.
He travels to a tough Brentford side, who still have something to play for.
The Bees have good defensive statistics at home, both recently and when looking at the whole season, so the Bookies seem to be basing his odds mainly on the pedigree of the City striker.
Backing against Haaland in terms of captaincy is brave, but leaving him out of the team altogether is madness.

Harry Kane (51%) makes up the last captaincy option as he lurks not far behind Salah and Haaland in the odds.
The Spurs striker has enjoyed an incredible season of 28 goals and eight assists to record his highest ever total of 247 FPL points still with a game to go.
This weekend he plays Leeds who are joint 20th with Southampton for goals conceded in home games this season (33). Leeds’ desperate need to win should provide Spurs with plenty of opportunities on the break.

Marcus Rashford (50%) returned to the team and to the scoresheet in midweek as he grabbed the fourth in a rout at Old Trafford vs Chelsea.
Rashford has four returns in his last five games (two goals, two assists) and while Fulham have a decent away record, it’s hard to see them keeping Man United out in this one.

Ollie Watkins (48%) was the flavour of the month in April, however, is now on a six-game drought. He’s been unlucky though, as his expected goal involvement (xGI) of 2.60 in that time reflects.
With Brighton potentially on the beach after securing Europa League football during the week and Villa needing a win, he looks a decent choice this game week.

Bukayo Saka (37%) is another player who has had a brilliant season but has been off the boil lately, without an attacking return in five.
However, with Wolves woeful away record and the fact that Arsenal will want to go out on a high after a brilliant but disappointing season, were backing the young winger to find his form again.

On the bench for us this weekend is Leon Bailey (27%) and Alejandro Garnacho who could get a start with Man United securing top four during the week.

Clean sheet odds gameweek 38

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man Utd40%2.48
Crystal Palace39%2.55
Man City36%2.8
Aston Villa30%3.35
West Ham21%4.7
Nottingham Forest18%5.6
Clean sheet odds gameweek 38

Surprisingly, Everton (47%) top the clean sheet odds going into Gameweek 38 as they host a Bournemouth side who have already secured survival a few weeks ago. Since then, they’ve lost three on the bounce, scoring just one goal.
Everton don’t have much defensive form, keeping just one clean sheet in their last six, though fixtures have been tough. The Bookies are betting on a cagey affair as Everton may even be safe with a draw.
Jordan Pickford looks like a decent selection here, he’s third for saves (123) over the course of the season. He’s joined in a defensive double up with Yerry Mina in what feels like a massive differential punt at just 0.2% ownership. No team has conceded more goals from set-pieces this season than Bournemouth (21) and Mina is always dangerous in the air.

Arsenal’s (45%) defensive form has collapsed in the last leg of the season, keeping just one clean sheet in their last ten games.
This weekend they welcome Wolves who have been as bad at attacking as the Gunners have been at defending, so it will be interesting to see which wins out.
Since the World Cup, Wolves sit 19th for xG and in ten away games since then they have only scored more than one on two occasions (Southampton & Everton) while being kept scoreless on three occasions.
Jakub Kiwior seems a relatively inexpensive punt at just £4.0m and 0.2%.

Liverpool’s (43%) charge toward the top four came to a halt at home to Aston Villa in Gameweek 37 as they drew 0-0 in a game fraught with controversy.
This Sunday they make the trip to St.Mary’s to play Southampton in what looks a bit of a dead rubber, though no doubt Klopp will want his men to lay down a marker going into next season.
Southampton are bottom of the league for big chances (24), goals (15) and xG (18.98) in all home games.
After eight returns in a row, Trent Alexander-Arnold finally blanked last gameweek but with the positions he’s taking up, he remains a no-brainer this gameweek.

Man United (40%) have the best home defensive record in the league this season, conceding just nine goals in 18 games and were so close to adding to that in midweek before Chelsea’s late consolation goal.
Hosting Fulham this week who sit 15th in the league for xG away from home this season, the Bookies expect them to get the job done again here.
Victor Lindelof, again, looks like a relatively inexpensive choice here. Since coming into the team in Gameweek 31 to replace the injured Martinez, Ten Hag’s men have kept four clean sheets in eight games.

On the bench for us this weekend is Daniel Iversen (£3.9m) who subbed on for a nine pointer for us last week, as well as Hugo Bueno (£3.8).

Don’t miss our analysis of the best captaincy options for the final gameweek here

Don’t miss out on your €200 bonus

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Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here