Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 38

And so it ends.

With Gameweek 38 upon us, it’s do-or-die time. The Bookies Advantage XI has plenty of ultra differentials in defence this week while up front, the usual suspects remain but with a differential captaincy the chance for big gains still exists.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Player	Probability	Odds	Team	Position
Mohamed Salah	55%	1.83	LIV	MID
Erling Haaland	54%	1.85	MCI	FWD
Harry Kane	51%	1.97	TOT	FWD
Marcus Rashford	50%	2	MUN	MID
Darwin Nunez	50%	2.02	LIV	FWD
Ollie Watkins	48%	2.1	AVL	FWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	46%	2.16	EVE	FWD
Gabriel Jesus	45%	2.2	ARS	FWD
Diego Jota	45%	2.2	LIV	MID
Odsonne Edouard	45%	2.23	CRY	FWD
Eddie Nketiah	43%	2.35	ARS	FWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta	43%	2.35	CRY	FWD
Callum Wilson	43%	2.35	NEW	FWD
Jamie Vardy	41%	2.45	LEI	FWD
Kelechi Iheanacho	41%	2.45	LEI	FWD
Roberto Firmino	41%	2.45	LIV	FWD
Bukayo Saka	38%	2.6	ARS	MID
Eberechi Eze	37%	2.7	CRY	MID
Aleksandar Mitrovic	36%	2.75	FUL	FWD
Julian Alvarez	36%	2.75	MCI	FWD
James Maddison	36%	2.8	LEI	MID
Cody Gakpo	36%	2.8	LIV	MID
Patrick Bamford	35%	2.85	LEE	FWD
Son Heung-Min	35%	2.85	TOT	MID
Wout Weghorst	35%	2.88	MUN	FWD
Bruno Fernandes	35%	2.88	MUN	MID
Neal Maupay	34%	2.95	EVE	FWD
Rodrigo	33%	3	LEE	MID
Alexander Isak	33%	3	NEW	FWD
Leandro Trossard	32%	3.1	ARS	MID
Harvey Barnes	32%	3.15	LEI	MID
Evan Ferguson	31%	3.2	BHA	FWD
Patson Daka	31%	3.2	LEI	FWD
Riyad Mahrez	31%	3.2	MCI	MID
Anthony Martial	30%	3.3	MUN	FWD
Demarai Gray	30%	3.35	EVE	MID
Martin Odegaard	29%	3.45	ARS	MID
Yoane Wissa	29%	3.5	BRE	MID
Danny Ings	28%	3.55	WHU	FWD
Taiwo Awoniyi	28%	3.6	NFO	FWD
Leon Bailey	27%	3.65	AVL	MID
Kai Havertz	27%	3.65	CHE	FWD
Richarlison	27%	3.65	TOT	FWD
Danny Welbeck	27%	3.75	BHA	FWD
Raheem Sterling	27%	3.75	CHE	MID
Emiliano Buendia	26%	3.8	AVL	MID
Dominic Solanke	26%	3.8	BOU	FWD
Carlos Vinicius	26%	3.8	FUL	FWD
Joao Felix	26%	3.85	CHE	FWD
Jadon Sancho	26%	3.9	MUN	MID
Bryan Mbeumo	25%	3.95	BRE	FWD
Wilfred Gnonto	25%	3.95	LEE	MID
Michael Olise	25%	4	CRY	MID
Kaoru Mitoma	24%	4.1	BHA	MID
Phil Foden	24%	4.1	MCI	MID
Kevin De Bruyne	24%	4.1	MCI	MID
Michail Antonio	24%	4.1	WHU	FWD
Alex Mac Allister	24%	4.2	BHA	MID
Sam Surridge	23%	4.3	NFO	FWD
Crysencio Summerville	23%	4.4	LEE	MID
Adam Armstrong	23%	4.4	SOU	FWD
Jarrod Bowen	23%	4.4	WHU	MID
Ilkay Gundogan	22%	4.5	MCI	MID
Brennan Johnson	21%	4.75	NFO	FWD
Lucas Moura	21%	4.8	TOT	MID
Raul Jimenez	21%	4.8	WOL	FWD
Kieffer Moore	20%	4.9	BOU	FWD
Che Adams	20%	4.9	SOU	FWD
Said Benrahma	20%	4.9	WHU	MID
Miguel Almiron	20%	5	NEW	MID
Kevin Schade	19%	5.2	BRE	FWD
Matheus Cunha	19%	5.25	WOL	FWD
Christian Eriksen	19%	5.3	MUN	MID
Christian Pulisic	19%	5.4	CHE	MID
Mason Mount	18%	5.6	CHE	MID
Joe Willock	18%	5.6	NEW	MID
Daniel Podence	18%	5.6	WOL	MID
Hee-Chan Hwang	18%	5.6	WOL	MID
Dejan Kulusevski	17%	5.8	TOT	MID
Ivan Perisic	17%	6	TOT	DEF
Bernardo Silva	16%	6.25	MCI	MID
Jack Grealish	16%	6.4	MCI	MID
Pascal Gross	15%	6.5	BHA	MID
Diego Costa	15%	6.5	WOL	FWD
Allan Saint-Maximin	15%	6.75	NEW	MID
Granit Xhaka	14%	7	ARS	MID
Philip Billing	14%	7	BOU	MID
Mykhaylo Mudryk	14%	7	CHE	MID
Bobby Reid	14%	7	FUL	MID
Bruno Guimaraes	14%	7	NEW	MID
Harry Wilson	13%	7.5	FUL	MID
Anthony Gordon	13%	8	NEW	MID
Virgil van Dijk	12%	8.5	LIV	DEF
Trent Alexander-Arnold	9%	11	LIV	DEF

Mohammed Salah (55%) just edges out Erling Haaland (54%) in the goal-scoring odds going into the final gameweek.
Mo Salah has only blanked once in his last nine games and has returned double digits in two of his last three away games, as no midfielder has more FPL points than Salah over the last six gameweeks.
This weekend he travels to a Southampton side with the worst home record in the league, conceding 33 goals (20th), keeping just one clean sheet (20th) and picking up just 10 points in the process (20th).
The Saints look like a beaten docket, and we’re ready to go all in on Salah cashing in big time come Sunday.

Despite scoring just one goal in his last three starts the Bookies favour Haaland (54%) to end the campaign well, as he looks to extend his record-breaking season beyond 36 goals.
He travels to a tough Brentford side, who still have something to play for.
The Bees have good defensive statistics at home, both recently and when looking at the whole season, so the Bookies seem to be basing his odds mainly on the pedigree of the City striker.
Backing against Haaland in terms of captaincy is brave, but leaving him out of the team altogether is madness.

Harry Kane (51%) makes up the last captaincy option as he lurks not far behind Salah and Haaland in the odds.
The Spurs striker has enjoyed an incredible season of 28 goals and eight assists to record his highest ever total of 247 FPL points still with a game to go.
This weekend he plays Leeds who are joint 20th with Southampton for goals conceded in home games this season (33). Leeds’ desperate need to win should provide Spurs with plenty of opportunities on the break.

Marcus Rashford (50%) returned to the team and to the scoresheet in midweek as he grabbed the fourth in a rout at Old Trafford vs Chelsea.
Rashford has four returns in his last five games (two goals, two assists) and while Fulham have a decent away record, it’s hard to see them keeping Man United out in this one.

Ollie Watkins (48%) was the flavour of the month in April, however, is now on a six-game drought. He’s been unlucky though, as his expected goal involvement (xGI) of 2.60 in that time reflects.
With Brighton potentially on the beach after securing Europa League football during the week and Villa needing a win, he looks a decent choice this game week.

Bukayo Saka (37%) is another player who has had a brilliant season but has been off the boil lately, without an attacking return in five.
However, with Wolves woeful away record and the fact that Arsenal will want to go out on a high after a brilliant but disappointing season, were backing the young winger to find his form again.

On the bench for us this weekend is Leon Bailey (27%) and Alejandro Garnacho who could get a start with Man United securing top four during the week.

Team	Clean Sheet Probability	Odds
Everton	47%	2.14
Arsenal	45%	2.23
Liverpool	43%	2.35
Man Utd	40%	2.48
Crystal Palace	39%	2.55
Man City	36%	2.8
Leicester	35%	2.88
Aston Villa	30%	3.35
Newcastle	29%	3.5
Chelsea	25%	3.95
Tottenham	24%	4.1
Leeds	22%	4.5
West Ham	21%	4.7
Brighton	20%	5
Brentford	20%	5.1
Nottingham Forest	18%	5.6
Bournemouth	15%	6.5
Fulham	13%	7.5
Wolves	11%	9
Southampton	11%	9.5

Surprisingly, Everton (47%) top the clean sheet odds going into Gameweek 38 as they host a Bournemouth side who have already secured survival a few weeks ago. Since then, they’ve lost three on the bounce, scoring just one goal.
Everton don’t have much defensive form, keeping just one clean sheet in their last six, though fixtures have been tough. The Bookies are betting on a cagey affair as Everton may even be safe with a draw.
Jordan Pickford looks like a decent selection here, he’s third for saves (123) over the course of the season. He’s joined in a defensive double up with Yerry Mina in what feels like a massive differential punt at just 0.2% ownership. No team has conceded more goals from set-pieces this season than Bournemouth (21) and Mina is always dangerous in the air.

Arsenal’s (45%) defensive form has collapsed in the last leg of the season, keeping just one clean sheet in their last ten games.
This weekend they welcome Wolves who have been as bad at attacking as the Gunners have been at defending, so it will be interesting to see which wins out.
Since the World Cup, Wolves sit 19th for xG and in ten away games since then they have only scored more than one on two occasions (Southampton & Everton) while being kept scoreless on three occasions.
Jakub Kiwior seems a relatively inexpensive punt at just £4.0m and 0.2%.

Liverpool’s (43%) charge toward the top four came to a halt at home to Aston Villa in Gameweek 37 as they drew 0-0 in a game fraught with controversy.
This Sunday they make the trip to St.Mary’s to play Southampton in what looks a bit of a dead rubber, though no doubt Klopp will want his men to lay down a marker going into next season.
Southampton are bottom of the league for big chances (24), goals (15) and xG (18.98) in all home games.
After eight returns in a row, Trent Alexander-Arnold finally blanked last gameweek but with the positions he’s taking up, he remains a no-brainer this gameweek.

Man United (40%) have the best home defensive record in the league this season, conceding just nine goals in 18 games and were so close to adding to that in midweek before Chelsea’s late consolation goal.
Hosting Fulham this week who sit 15th in the league for xG away from home this season, the Bookies expect them to get the job done again here.
Victor Lindelof, again, looks like a relatively inexpensive choice here. Since coming into the team in Gameweek 31 to replace the injured Martinez, Ten Hag’s men have kept four clean sheets in eight games.

On the bench for us this weekend is Daniel Iversen (£3.9m) who subbed on for a nine pointer for us last week, as well as Hugo Bueno (£3.8).

Don’t miss our analysis of the best captaincy options for the final gameweek here

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here