Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 4

Last week, all six of our front six players returned, including a mega-haul from 2.3% owned Raheem Sterling. Our captain, Erling Haaland returned again (just about), keeping our 100 percent record for captaincy returns this season.

Going into Gameweek 4, the Bookies Advantage XI includes four players under 10% ownership, with one ultra differential coming in at 0.6% TSB.

Add to this a few of the usual heavy hitters and we’ve got the recipe for a very exciting gameweek.

Check out our captaincy analysis here

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscorer Odds gameeweek 4

Erling Haaland77%1.3MCIFWD
Mohamed Salah51%1.97LIVMID
Darwin Nunez46%2.16LIVFWD
Son Heung-Min45%2.2TOTMID
Nicolas Jackson44%2.25CHEFWD
Julian Alvarez44%2.28MCIFWD
Bryan Mbeumo43%2.33BREMID
Raheem Sterling42%2.4CHEMID
Callum Wilson41%2.45NEWFWD
Eddie Nketiah39%2.55ARSFWD
Evan Ferguson39%2.55BHAFWD
James Maddison39%2.55TOTMID
Yoane Wissa38%2.63BREFWD
Odsonne Edouard38%2.65CRYFWD
Diego Jota38%2.65LIVMID
Phil Foden38%2.65MCIMID
Jean-Philippe Mateta37%2.7CRYFWD
Gabriel Jesus36%2.75ARSFWD
Luis Díaz35%2.85LIVMID
Alexander Isak35%2.88NEWFWD
Bukayo Saka33%3.05ARSMID
Arnaout Danjuma32%3.1EVEMID
Danny Ings32%3.15WHUFWD
Dominic Solanke31%3.2BOUFWD
Gabriel Martinelli31%3.25ARSMID
Ollie Watkins31%3.25AVLFWD
Keane Lewis-Potter30%3.3BREMID
Harvey Barnes30%3.3NEWMID
Kai Havertz29%3.4ARSMID
Carlton Morris29%3.4LUTFWD
Michail Antonio29%3.4WHUFWD
Jarrod Bowen29%3.45WHUMID
João Pedro29%3.5BHAFWD
Palmer Cole29%3.5MCIMID
Kieffer Moore28%3.55BOUFWD
Cody Gakpo28%3.55LIVFWD
Kaoru Mitoma27%3.65BHAMID
Kevin Schade27%3.65BREMID
Marcus Rashford27%3.65MUNMID
Moussa Diaby27%3.7AVLMID
Eberechi Eze27%3.7CRYMID
Jay Rodriguez27%3.75BURFWD
William Osula26%3.8SHUFWD
Leandro Trossard26%3.85ARSMID
Said Benrahma26%3.85WHUMID
Sasa Kalajdzic25%3.95WOLFWD
Justin Kluivert25%4BOUMID
Bernardo Silva25%4MCIMID
Martin Odegaard24%4.1ARSMID
Neal Maupay24%4.1EVEFWD
Taiwo Awoniyi24%4.2NFOFWD
Lyle Foster23%4.4BURFWD
Jack Grealish23%4.4MCIMID
Conor Gallagher22%4.6CHEMID
Bruno Fernandes22%4.6MUNMID
Ivan Perisic21%4.7TOTDEF
Elijah Adebayo21%4.75LUTFWD
Zeki Amdouni21%4.8BURFWD
Alex Mac Allister21%4.8LIVMID
Dejan Kulusevski20%4.9TOTMID
Miguel Almiron20%5NEWMID
Solly March20%5.1BHAMID
Anthony Martial19%5.2MUNFWD
Carlos Vinicius19%5.25FULFWD
Mykhaylo Mudryk19%5.3CHEMID
Pascal Gross18%5.5BHAMID
Nathan Redmond17%5.8BURMID
Rodrigo Muniz17%5.8FULFWD
Philip Billing16%6.1BOUMID
Jadon Sancho16%6.1MUNMID
Cauley Woodrow16%6.25LUTFWD
Hee-Chan Hwang16%6.25WOLMID
Elliot Anderson16%6.4NEWMID
Chris Wood16%6.4NFOFWD
Daniel Podence16%6.4WOLMID
Anthony Gordon15%6.5NEWMID
Sander Berge14%7BURMID
Bruno Guimaraes14%7NEWMID
Luke Berry13%7.5LUTMID
Brennan Johnson13%7.5NFOFWD
Bobby Reid11%9.5FULMID
Christian Eriksen10%10MUNMID
Sandro Tonali9%11NEWMID
Trent Alexander-Arnold9%11.5LIVDEF
Goalscorer odds gameweek 4 23/24

Don’t miss out on your €200 bonus

You know football! Capitalise on your knowledge.

Our betting partner Bethard currently offers up to €200 in first deposit bonus. Claim your offer here. 18+, T&Cs apply.


Erling Haaland (77%) is once again the  bookies favourite to score this weekend, after missing a penalty away at Sheffield United last time out.

In Gameweek 4, he comes up against a Fulham side who look very weak defensively, conceding 14 big chances (20th) as well as 9.85 expected goals.

Haaland himself needs little justification. Already, he is top for shots (16), shots in the box (16), big chances (5) and shots on target (7).

It would take a very brave FPL manager to back against the big Norwegian this week.

Mohammed Salah (51%) returns to the Bookies Advantage XI after being left out vs Newcastle last weekend. The Egyptian now has three five point returns in a row but FPL managers will be looking for something a bit more substantial if he’s going to justify his lofty price of £12.5m.

The Bookies are counselling patience though, as Liverpool host Aston Villa, who have bounced back from their crushing opening day defeat to record two wins.

However, with Lucas Digne at left back, they have a zonal weakness in their defence, conceding 12 chances down the left as opposed to seven down their right.

This makes Salah a good option this gameweek.

Son Heung-min (45%) comes in at third in the Bookies reckoning ahead of Gameweek 4, as Spurs start the move towards top gear.

This weekend they travel to Turf Moor to take on Vincent Komany’s new look Burnley, who seem to be struggling to make the step up to Premier League level, conceding six goals in their opening two games.

The Clarets tend to play a high line, especially at home, something the South Korean is more than capable of exploiting.

With rumours he could start as the striker and may possibly be on penalties, he could make a shrewd pick at just 6.0% ownership.

Nicolas Jackson (44%) scored the third and opened his account for Chelsea as they put Luton Town to the sword in Gameweek 3. The Bookies are backing him to score again this weekend when he plays Nottingham Forest who conceded three away at Old Trafford last weekend.

He’s joined by teammate and player of the gameweek Raheem Sterling who returned a 19 point haul last Friday night. The winger is in hot demand as he is the most transferred in player ahead of Gameweek 4.

Bryan Mbeumo (43%) blanked for the first time this season last weekend but remains a good pick in a good Brentford team. They host Bournemouth this weekend who are 16th for expected goals conceded, 18th for shots in the box conceded and 15th for big chances conceded.

Add to that he’s nailed for 90 minutes and on penalties and he remains good value at £6.8m.

On the bench for us this week in attack is Eddie Nketiah (39%) who has a good chance of scoring despite a tough fixture, as well as Elliot Anderson (16%) who makes for decent bench fodder at just £4.4m.

Clean sheet odds gameweek 4

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City59%1.7
West Ham43%2.33
Crystal Palace42%2.38
Sheffield Utd30%3.3
Man Utd17%6
Nottingham Forest14%7
Aston Villa13%7.5

Manchester City (59%) look like they may be up to their old tricks as they conceded to the first and only shot on target against Sheffield United last weekend.

This weekend they host Marco Silva’s side, who seem to be struggling to adjust to life post-Mitrovic as they sit 17th for expected goals (2.52) with two teams below them (Luton Town & Burnley) having played a game less.

As we continue to spin the Pep roulette in hopes of hitting the jackpot, we’ve opted for Ederson in goal this week, along with Josko Gvardiol who seems to have nailed down that left-back spot.

Chelsea (49%) recorded their first clean sheet of the season in Gameweek 3 and the Blues will be hoping to make it two from two when they welcome Nottingham Forest to Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

Steve Cooper’s side were bottom for goals and expected goals in all away games last season though seem to have improved somewhat in their first two away games this year.

Malo Gusto impressed against Luton last week, but it was Ben Chilwell that looked by far the more threatening, often playing very advanced in a left wing position. He makes an easy choice this week.

West Ham (43%) put on a Moyes masterclass last weekend as they ran out 3-1 winners against Brighton despite only having 23% possession. This week they will be tested in possession however as they travel to Kenilworth Road for the first ever Premier League game to be hosted in the stadium.

The Hatters have failed to impress thus far, especially in attack, having not scored a goal from open play in their first two games.

Nayef Aguerd (£4.5m) is back from suspension and looks a decent pick at just 0.6% ownership. The Moroccan scored two goals in 17 games last season and already has one this campaign, with James Ward-Prowse swinging in corners for the Hammers, he won’t be long scoring a few more.

Crystal Palace (42%) are 1st for expected goals conceded since re-appointing Roy Hodgson at the back end of last season and have continued that good defensive form into this season conceding just one goal from open play in their first three games.

Wolves meanwhile have struggled to put the ball in the back of the net, scoring their first of the season away at Everton last weekend with a late winner, in off the shoulder of 6ft 6inch (2m) Sasa Kalajdzic.

Joachim Andersen (£4.6m) is joint top for points among defenders with Matty Cash, he has both assist potential and goal threat and makes a good inclusion at just 5.9% ownership.

On the bench for us in defence this week is Alphonse Areola who made nine saves in Gameweek 3, as well as Issa Kabore, who looks the best £4.0m defender.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here

Don’t miss out on your €200 bonus

You know football! Capitalise on your knowledge.

Our betting partner Bethard currently offers up to €200 in first deposit bonus. Claim your offer here. 18+, T&Cs apply.