Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 4

Last week, all six of our front six players returned, including a mega-haul from 2.3% owned Raheem Sterling. Our captain, Erling Haaland returned again (just about), keeping our 100 percent record for captaincy returns this season.

Going into Gameweek 4, the Bookies Advantage XI includes four players under 10% ownership, with one ultra differential coming in at 0.6% TSB.

Add to this a few of the usual heavy hitters and we’ve got the recipe for a very exciting gameweek.

Check out our captaincy analysis here

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Player	Probability	Odds	Team	Position
Erling Haaland	77%	1.3	MCI	FWD
Mohamed Salah	51%	1.97	LIV	MID
Darwin Nunez	46%	2.16	LIV	FWD
Son Heung-Min	45%	2.2	TOT	MID
Nicolas Jackson	44%	2.25	CHE	FWD
Julian Alvarez	44%	2.28	MCI	FWD
Bryan Mbeumo	43%	2.33	BRE	MID
Raheem Sterling	42%	2.4	CHE	MID
Callum Wilson	41%	2.45	NEW	FWD
Eddie Nketiah	39%	2.55	ARS	FWD
Evan Ferguson	39%	2.55	BHA	FWD
James Maddison	39%	2.55	TOT	MID
Yoane Wissa	38%	2.63	BRE	FWD
Odsonne Edouard	38%	2.65	CRY	FWD
Diego Jota	38%	2.65	LIV	MID
Phil Foden	38%	2.65	MCI	MID
Jean-Philippe Mateta	37%	2.7	CRY	FWD
Gabriel Jesus	36%	2.75	ARS	FWD
Richarlison	36%	2.8	TOT	FWD
Luis Díaz	35%	2.85	LIV	MID
Alexander Isak	35%	2.88	NEW	FWD
Bukayo Saka	33%	3.05	ARS	MID
Arnaout Danjuma	32%	3.1	EVE	MID
Danny Ings	32%	3.15	WHU	FWD
Dominic Solanke	31%	3.2	BOU	FWD
Gabriel Martinelli	31%	3.25	ARS	MID
Ollie Watkins	31%	3.25	AVL	FWD
Keane Lewis-Potter	30%	3.3	BRE	MID
Harvey Barnes	30%	3.3	NEW	MID
Kai Havertz	29%	3.4	ARS	MID
Carlton Morris	29%	3.4	LUT	FWD
Michail Antonio	29%	3.4	WHU	FWD
Jarrod Bowen	29%	3.45	WHU	MID
João Pedro	29%	3.5	BHA	FWD
Benson	29%	3.5	BUR	MID
Palmer Cole	29%	3.5	MCI	MID
Kieffer Moore	28%	3.55	BOU	FWD
Cody Gakpo	28%	3.55	LIV	FWD
Kaoru Mitoma	27%	3.65	BHA	MID
Kevin Schade	27%	3.65	BRE	MID
Marcus Rashford	27%	3.65	MUN	MID
Moussa Diaby	27%	3.7	AVL	MID
Eberechi Eze	27%	3.7	CRY	MID
Jay Rodriguez	27%	3.75	BUR	FWD
William Osula	26%	3.8	SHU	FWD
Leandro Trossard	26%	3.85	ARS	MID
Said Benrahma	26%	3.85	WHU	MID
Sasa Kalajdzic	25%	3.95	WOL	FWD
Justin Kluivert	25%	4	BOU	MID
Bernardo Silva	25%	4	MCI	MID
Martin Odegaard	24%	4.1	ARS	MID
Neal Maupay	24%	4.1	EVE	FWD
Taiwo Awoniyi	24%	4.2	NFO	FWD
Lyle Foster	23%	4.4	BUR	FWD
Jack Grealish	23%	4.4	MCI	MID
Conor Gallagher	22%	4.6	CHE	MID
Enzo	22%	4.6	CHE	MID
Bruno Fernandes	22%	4.6	MUN	MID
Ivan Perisic	21%	4.7	TOT	DEF
Elijah Adebayo	21%	4.75	LUT	FWD
Zeki Amdouni	21%	4.8	BUR	FWD
Alex Mac Allister	21%	4.8	LIV	MID
Dejan Kulusevski	20%	4.9	TOT	MID
Miguel Almiron	20%	5	NEW	MID
Solly March	20%	5.1	BHA	MID
Anthony Martial	19%	5.2	MUN	FWD
Carlos Vinicius	19%	5.25	FUL	FWD
Mykhaylo Mudryk	19%	5.3	CHE	MID
Rodri	19%	5.4	MCI	MID
Pascal Gross	18%	5.5	BHA	MID
Nathan Redmond	17%	5.8	BUR	MID
Rodrigo Muniz	17%	5.8	FUL	FWD
Philip Billing	16%	6.1	BOU	MID
Jadon Sancho	16%	6.1	MUN	MID
Cauley Woodrow	16%	6.25	LUT	FWD
Hee-Chan Hwang	16%	6.25	WOL	MID
Antony	16%	6.4	MUN	MID
Elliot Anderson	16%	6.4	NEW	MID
Chris Wood	16%	6.4	NFO	FWD
Daniel Podence	16%	6.4	WOL	MID
Anthony Gordon	15%	6.5	NEW	MID
Sander Berge	14%	7	BUR	MID
Bruno Guimaraes	14%	7	NEW	MID
Luke Berry	13%	7.5	LUT	MID
Brennan Johnson	13%	7.5	NFO	FWD
Bobby Reid	11%	9.5	FUL	MID
Christian Eriksen	10%	10	MUN	MID
Sandro Tonali	9%	11	NEW	MID
Trent Alexander-Arnold	9%	11.5	LIV	DEF

Erling Haaland (77%) is once again the  bookies favourite to score this weekend, after missing a penalty away at Sheffield United last time out.

In Gameweek 4, he comes up against a Fulham side who look very weak defensively, conceding 14 big chances (20th) as well as 9.85 expected goals.

Haaland himself needs little justification. Already, he is top for shots (16), shots in the box (16), big chances (5) and shots on target (7).

It would take a very brave FPL manager to back against the big Norwegian this week.

Mohammed Salah (51%) returns to the Bookies Advantage XI after being left out vs Newcastle last weekend. The Egyptian now has three five point returns in a row but FPL managers will be looking for something a bit more substantial if he’s going to justify his lofty price of £12.5m.

The Bookies are counselling patience though, as Liverpool host Aston Villa, who have bounced back from their crushing opening day defeat to record two wins.

However, with Lucas Digne at left back, they have a zonal weakness in their defence, conceding 12 chances down the left as opposed to seven down their right.

This makes Salah a good option this gameweek.

Son Heung-min (45%) comes in at third in the Bookies reckoning ahead of Gameweek 4, as Spurs start the move towards top gear.

This weekend they travel to Turf Moor to take on Vincent Komany’s new look Burnley, who seem to be struggling to make the step up to Premier League level, conceding six goals in their opening two games.

The Clarets tend to play a high line, especially at home, something the South Korean is more than capable of exploiting.

With rumours he could start as the striker and may possibly be on penalties, he could make a shrewd pick at just 6.0% ownership.

Nicolas Jackson (44%) scored the third and opened his account for Chelsea as they put Luton Town to the sword in Gameweek 3. The Bookies are backing him to score again this weekend when he plays Nottingham Forest who conceded three away at Old Trafford last weekend.

He’s joined by teammate and player of the gameweek Raheem Sterling who returned a 19 point haul last Friday night. The winger is in hot demand as he is the most transferred in player ahead of Gameweek 4.

Bryan Mbeumo (43%) blanked for the first time this season last weekend but remains a good pick in a good Brentford team. They host Bournemouth this weekend who are 16th for expected goals conceded, 18th for shots in the box conceded and 15th for big chances conceded.

Add to that he’s nailed for 90 minutes and on penalties and he remains good value at £6.8m.

On the bench for us this week in attack is Eddie Nketiah (39%) who has a good chance of scoring despite a tough fixture, as well as Elliot Anderson (16%) who makes for decent bench fodder at just £4.4m.

Team	Clean Sheet Probability	Odds
Man City	59%	1.7
Chelsea	49%	2.06
West Ham	43%	2.33
Crystal Palace	42%	2.38
Brentford	38%	2.6
Everton	36%	2.8
Arsenal	34%	2.95
Tottenham	33%	3
Liverpool	31%	3.2
Sheffield Utd	30%	3.3
Wolves	25%	4
Newcastle	23%	4.35
Brighton	23%	4.4
Luton	21%	4.7
Bournemouth	19%	5.3
Burnley	18%	5.5
Man Utd	17%	6
Nottingham Forest	14%	7
Aston Villa	13%	7.5
Fulham	7%	15

Manchester City (59%) look like they may be up to their old tricks as they conceded to the first and only shot on target against Sheffield United last weekend.

This weekend they host Marco Silva’s side, who seem to be struggling to adjust to life post-Mitrovic as they sit 17th for expected goals (2.52) with two teams below them (Luton Town & Burnley) having played a game less.

As we continue to spin the Pep roulette in hopes of hitting the jackpot, we’ve opted for Ederson in goal this week, along with Josko Gvardiol who seems to have nailed down that left-back spot.

Chelsea (49%) recorded their first clean sheet of the season in Gameweek 3 and the Blues will be hoping to make it two from two when they welcome Nottingham Forest to Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

Steve Cooper’s side were bottom for goals and expected goals in all away games last season though seem to have improved somewhat in their first two away games this year.

Malo Gusto impressed against Luton last week, but it was Ben Chilwell that looked by far the more threatening, often playing very advanced in a left wing position. He makes an easy choice this week.

West Ham (43%) put on a Moyes masterclass last weekend as they ran out 3-1 winners against Brighton despite only having 23% possession. This week they will be tested in possession however as they travel to Kenilworth Road for the first ever Premier League game to be hosted in the stadium.

The Hatters have failed to impress thus far, especially in attack, having not scored a goal from open play in their first two games.

Nayef Aguerd (£4.5m) is back from suspension and looks a decent pick at just 0.6% ownership. The Moroccan scored two goals in 17 games last season and already has one this campaign, with James Ward-Prowse swinging in corners for the Hammers, he won’t be long scoring a few more.

Crystal Palace (42%) are 1st for expected goals conceded since re-appointing Roy Hodgson at the back end of last season and have continued that good defensive form into this season conceding just one goal from open play in their first three games.

Wolves meanwhile have struggled to put the ball in the back of the net, scoring their first of the season away at Everton last weekend with a late winner, in off the shoulder of 6ft 6inch (2m) Sasa Kalajdzic.

Joachim Andersen (£4.6m) is joint top for points among defenders with Matty Cash, he has both assist potential and goal threat and makes a good inclusion at just 5.9% ownership.

On the bench for us in defence this week is Alphonse Areola who made nine saves in Gameweek 3, as well as Issa Kabore, who looks the best £4.0m defender.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here