Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 4

Upsets abound in the Premier League last weekend, but the bookies continue to bet on big at the back, counselling patience with the “Big Six” defenders. Meanwhile, the usual suspects continue up front, except the surprise inclusion of a long-forgotten Red Devil.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 4

PlayerGoal probabilityOddsTeamPosition
Erling Haaland71%1.4MCIFWD
Mohamed Salah65%1.55LIVMID
Diogo Jota59%1.7LIVMID
Julian Alvarez57%1.75MCIFWD
Harry Kane57%1.75TOTFWD
Cristiano Ronaldo56%1.8MUNFWD
Gabriel Jesus56%1.8ARSFWD
Son Heung-Min56%1.8TOTMID
Roberto Firmino51%1.95LIVMID
Luis Diaz48%2.1LIVMID
Riyad Mahrez48%2.1MCIMID
Ivan Toney45%2.2BREFWD
Bukayo Saka45%2.2ARSMID
Kai Havertz43%2.3CHEFWD
Kevin De Bruyne43%2.3MCIMID
Anthony Martial42%2.4MUNFWD
Phil Foden42%2.4MCIMID
Gabriel Martinelli42%2.4ARSMID
Neal Maupay40%2.5BHAFWD
Bruno Fernandes38%2.6MUNMID
Raheem Sterling38%2.6CHEMID
Nicolas Pepe38%2.6ARSMID
Raul Jimenez38%2.6WOLFWD
Danny Ings37%2.7AVLFWD
Ollie Watkins37%2.7AVLFWD
Ivan Perisic37%2.7TOTDEF
Marcus Rashford36%2.8MUNMID
Danny Welbeck36%2.8BHAFWD
Philippe Coutinho36%2.8AVLMID
Dejan Kulusevski36%2.8TOTMID
Patrick Bamford34%2.9LEEFWD
Emile Smith Rowe34%2.9ARSMID
Mason Mount33%3CHEMID
Ilkay Gundogan33%3MCIMID
Aleksandar Mitrovic33%3FULFWD
Che Adams30%3.3SOUFWD
Adam Armstrong30%3.3SOUFWD
Jamie Vardy30%3.3LEIFWD
Jack Grealish30%3.3MCIMID
Gianluca Scamacca29%3.4WHUFWD
Michail Antonio29%3.4WHUFWD
Jadon Sancho29%3.5MUNMID
Naby Keita29%3.5LIVMID
Callum Hudson-Odoi29%3.5CHEMID
Martin Odegaard29%3.5ARSMID
Anthony Elanga28%3.6MUNMID
Alexis Mac Allister28%3.6BHAMID
Leandro Trossard28%3.6BHAMID
Keane Lewis-Potter28%3.6BREMID
Bernardo Silva28%3.6MCIMID
Maxwel Cornet28%3.6WHUMID
Salomon Rondon26%3.8EVEFWD
Patson Daka26%3.8LEIFWD
Kelechi Iheanacho26%3.8LEIFWD
Leon Bailey26%3.8AVLMID
Mikkel Damsgaard25%4BREMID
Hwang Hee-Chan25%4WOLMID
Ryan Sessegnon25%4TOTDEF
Emmanuel Dennis24%4.2NFOFWD
Christian Eriksen23%4.4MUNMID
Anthony Gordon23%4.4EVEMID
Bryan Mbeumo23%4.4BREMID
Odsonne Edouard23%4.4CRYFWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta23%4.4CRYFWD
Pedro Neto23%4.4WOLMID
Daniel Podence23%4.4WOLMID
Sam Surridge23%4.4NFOFWD
Taiwo Awoniyi23%4.4NFOFWD
Jarrod Bowen22%4.6WHUMID
Allan Saint-Maximin21%4.8NEWMID
Daniel James20%5LEEMID
Luis Sinisterra20%5LEEMID
Pascal Gross20%5BHAMID
Wilfried Zaha20%5CRYMID
Said Benrahma20%5WHUMID
Pablo Fornals20%5WHUMID
James Maddison18%5.5LEIMID
Harvey Barnes18%5.5LEIMID
Ruben Neves18%5.5WOLMID
Bruno Guimaraes18%5.5NEWMID
Jack Harrison17%6LEEMID
Brenden Aaronson17%6LEEMID
Virgil Van Dijk17%6LIVDEF
Josh Dasilva17%6BREMID
Ben Chilwell17%6LEIDEF
Reece James17%6CHEDEF
Joao Cancelo17%6MCIDEF
Ryan Christie15%6.5BOUMID
Trent Alexander-Arnold15%6.5LIVDEF
Dele Alli15%6.5EVEMID
Andreas Pereira15%6.5FULMID
Tomas Soucek14%7WHUMID
Andrew Robertson13%7.5LIVDEF
Oleksandr Zinchenko13%7.5ARSDEF
Harry Maguire11%9MUNDEF
Mathias Jensen10%10BREMID
Marc Cucurella8%12CHEDEF
Goalscorer odds Gameweek 4

Once again, the FPL community is divided in terms of captaincy this week, and there are no prizes for guessing the two primary candidates.
Mo Salah (67%) comes into this game having nabbed a scrappy goal against a resilient Manchester United in Gameweek 3. Liverpool’s attack has looked blunt, with injuries piling up the midfield areas, though Salah has still managed three returns in as many games this season.
On the other hand, Erling Haaland (73%) and Manchester City have hit the ground running, certainly in an attacking sense. Man City are 1st for xG (4.43), while Haaland is 2nd for non-penalty xG (1.70), 2nd for shots (11) and shots in the box (10) and 1st for big chance involvements (7).
Though Crystal Palace are undoubtedly a better defence than Bournemouth, the bookies still slightly favour the Man City striker. He takes the captain’s armband for us for the fourth week in a row, with Salah vice-captain in the premium midfield spot.

Arsenal’s Brazilian duo continue to shine like the white sand beaches of the Copacabana. The returns keep pouring in as the Gunners flow forward in wave after wave of attack. Jesus (64%) & Martinelli (44%) both picked up an assist in Gameweek 3 and were perhaps unlucky not to come away with more.
Arsenal sit second in the table for xG from open play, with Jesus top amongst forwards for xGI (2.13). They take on Fulham at the Emirates in Gameweek 4, who are second last for big chances conceded (9). Following the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” model of FPL, both continue in our starting XI this week.

Ivan Toney (45%) has four returns in his opening three games, and the Bees are buzzing along nicely. They come up against a woeful Everton side this weekend who tend to struggle away from home. Brentford put four past Man United when they last played at home in Gameweek 2.
With good form and a great fixture, Toney takes the third forward spot in our team.

Lastly, is a man long forgotten on a team much forgotten (in FPL terms anyway). Marcus Rashford (36%) and Manchester United bounced back brilliantly against Liverpool on Monday night.
They travel to St.Marys in Gameweek 4 to play a Southampton side who have been known to fall apart on occasion, shipping four, five (even nine) goals.
Rashford has long been a “confidence player”, and with the boost he got in Gameweek 3, the bookies expect him to continue his goal-scoring form this weekend.

The bench is filled by Andreas Pereira, who recorded an assist for a nice 8-pointer last weekend, and Harry Arter (NFO), who makes an excellent enabler at £4.4m.

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Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 4

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City58%1.73
Man Utd32%3.1
Aston Villa31%3.25
West Ham24%4.25
Nottingham Forest14%7
Crystal Palace7%14
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 4

Liverpool (65%) fell to one of the many shock results in the Premier League last weekend as they sleepwalked into a nightmare result at the Theatre of Dreams.
Jurgen Klopps’ men remain vulnerable on the counterattack, though luckily for them they play Bournemouth this week, who have very little to offer in that department. The Cherries stay rooted to the bottom of the stats tables for shots, shots in the box, big chances and xG, and appeared utterly toothless against Arsenal in Gameweek 3.
Meanwhile, Alexander Arnold sits top amongst defenders for chances created, big chance involvements, xA and xGI. For now, patience with the young fullback is advised, and Joe Gomez (£4.5m) joins him in a cheap defensive double-up.

Manchester City (58%) are the second most likely to keep a clean sheet this week. An underwhelming defensive display left FPL managers stunned, as clean sheets were hard to come by. An energetic Newcastle side ripped through City’s defence repeatedly; by the end, there could have even been more.
The bookies, however, are undeterred by this and fancy Guardiola’s men to revert to type at home to Crystal Palace in Gameweek 4. No doubt the Eagles will set up similar to how they did in Anfield in Gameweek 2, sitting deep and trying to hit on the counter with Zaha’s pace. Joao Cancelo has the highest xGI numbers of any of the City defenders by far and keeps his place in our side this week.

Similarly, Chelsea (48%) were run ragged defensively on a tough away day in Leeds where Mendy gifted the home side their first goal.
They take on a Leicester side in disarray, having taken just one point from their opening three games. The Foxes were even lucky to score one at home to Southampton in Gameweek 3, managing just one shot on target and accumulating just 0.26 xG.
This should bode well for Reece James, who might expect an easier run out in Gameweek 4.

Arsenal (48%) have looked defensively solid so far this season, albeit with a kind run of fixtures. They welcome a Fulham team that have impressed in their opening games and look like a really good attacking outfit.
With that said, the bookies fancy Arsenal for a clean sheet, with Fulham decent attackers, shots can be expected and that provides Aaron Ramsdale with a chance at extra points.
He’s our choice between the posts this week.

Danny Ward (£4.0m) continues on our bench despite Leicester’s poor defensive performance. Everton (25%) slightly edge out Nottingham Forest (15%), and for that reason, Nathan Patterson (£4.0m) continues as our defensive bench fodder.

Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 4

Goalscorer odds gameweek 4

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.

You can follow him on Twitter here