Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 5

Gameweek 4 saw the Bookies Advantage XI catch a double hattrick, with the inclusion of Son Heung-min (6.0% TSB) & Erling Haaland (91% TSB), raking in 88 points in what was a very successful weekend and making it four out of four in terms of captaincy returns this season.

After a painstaking fortnight of FPL-free football, we return to fantasy land this weekend with the “Big Seven” sides unsurprisingly dominating our starting lineup.

In the Bookies Advantage XI in Gameweek 5 is an exciting mix of explosive differentials, paired nicely with some old reliables.

Check out our captaincy advice for gameweek 5 here

Goalscorer odds Gameweek 5

Erling Haaland65%1.54MCIFWD
Son Heung-Min58%1.73TOTMID
Mohamed Salah55%1.83LIVMID
Darwin Nunez52%1.92LIVFWD
Callum Wilson45%2.23NEWFWD
Nicolas Jackson44%2.28CHEFWD
Alexander Isak44%2.28NEWFWD
Gabriel Jesus43%2.35ARSFWD
Carlos Vinicius43%2.35FULFWD
Ollie Watkins41%2.45AVLFWD
James Maddison41%2.45TOTMID
Raheem Sterling40%2.5CHEMID
Diego Jota40%2.5LIVMID
Taiwo Awoniyi40%2.5NFOFWD
Eddie Nketiah39%2.55ARSFWD
Bukayo Saka39%2.55ARSMID
Evan Ferguson39%2.55BHAFWD
Julian Alvarez38%2.6MCIFWD
Harvey Barnes38%2.63NEWMID
Luis Díaz36%2.75LIVMID
Marcus Rashford36%2.8MUNMID
Moussa Diaby33%3AVLMID
Odsonne Edouard33%3CRYFWD
Bruno Fernandes33%3MUNMID
Gabriel Martinelli32%3.1ARSMID
Dominic Solanke31%3.2BOUFWD
Kai Havertz31%3.25ARSMID
Cody Gakpo31%3.25LIVFWD
Phil Foden31%3.25MCIMID
Kieffer Moore29%3.45BOUFWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta29%3.45CRYFWD
Bobby Reid28%3.55FULMID
Leandro Trossard28%3.6ARSMID
Martin Odegaard27%3.65ARSMID
Dominic Calvert-Lewin27%3.7EVEFWD
Yoane Wissa27%3.75BREFWD
Miguel Almiron27%3.75NEWMID
Sasa Kalajdzic27%3.75WOLFWD
Kaoru Mitoma26%3.8BHAMID
Harry Wilson26%3.8FULMID
Dejan Kulusevski26%3.85TOTMID
João Pedro25%3.95BHAFWD
Anthony Martial24%4.1MUNFWD
Andreas Pereira24%4.25FULMID
Bryan Mbeumo23%4.35BREMID
Jadon Sancho23%4.4MUNMID
Eberechi Eze22%4.5CRYMID
Anthony Gordon22%4.6NEWMID
Elijah Adebayo21%4.7LUTFWD
Arnaout Danjuma21%4.75EVEMID
Elliot Anderson20%5NEWMID
Conor Gallagher19%5.2CHEMID
Ivan Perisic19%5.2TOTDEF
Solly March19%5.25BHAMID
Jack Grealish19%5.25MCIMID
Hee-Chan Hwang19%5.4WOLMID
Pascal Gross18%5.6BHAMID
Michail Antonio18%5.6WHUFWD
William Osula17%5.75SHUFWD
Bruno Guimaraes17%5.8NEWMID
Jarrod Bowen17%5.8WHUMID
Reece James17%6CHEDEF
Christian Eriksen16%6.1MUNMID
Mykhaylo Mudryk16%6.4CHEMID
Kevin Schade15%6.5BREMID
Alex Mac Allister15%6.5LIVMID
Keane Lewis-Potter15%6.75BREMID
Said Benrahma15%6.75WHUMID
Declan Rice13%7.6ARSMID
Rhian Brewster13%8SHUFWD
Trent Alexander-Arnold10%10LIVDEF
Virgil van Dijk9%11.5LIVDEF
Ismaila Coulibaly6%18SHUMID

Once again, Erling Haaland (65%) is favoured in terms of goal scoring odds, though not as heavily as usual. The Norwegian netted a hattrick and an assist in Gameweek 4 for a 20 point haul, once again showing the perils of any who dare to captain other assets.

It’s become a popular theory among some in the community to back against Haaland in his tougher away games, however the Bookies disagree and the underlying data back that up.

Only Harry Kane scored more away goals than Haaland last season (16 vs 14), and the City striker was the clear number one for both big chances (28) and xG (13.07).

Haaland scored a brace in this fixture last season on his Premier League debut and there’s no reason to think he can’t do the same again this weekend.

Heung-min Son (58%) announced his return to form (and many FPL teams) with a hattrick  at Burnley in Gameweek 4 as Spurs ran out 2-5 winners.

This week he takes on Sheffield United at home, a side without a clean sheet and struggling defensively, conceding 12 big chances in four games, they are also 19th for expected goals conceded (9.47).

Having been pushed wide early on, it remains to be seen if Son can sustain his form through the middle for Spurs, but the bookies (and us) are willing to buy a ticket to the raffle.

Mohammed Salah (55%) also returned in Gameweek 4 as Liverpool put in a dominant display against a Villa side who are no mugs. Early signs of a Klopp revival should give fans and FPL managers alike some optimism.

This week he travels to Wolves, joint 19th for big chances conceded (15) and joint 16th for goals conceded so far this season.

Salah is joined by teammate Darwin Nunez (52%) who now has four returns in his last two games with two goals and two assists. The Uruguayan is very much a confidence player and is definitely worth getting while he’s hot.

Alexander Isak (44%) has fallen a bit flat since his opening day brace, though he did put up a decent xG against Brighton last time out. He’ll be hoping to get back on the score sheet this week as he welcomes Brentford to St. James’ Park, while Thomas Frank’s side have good underlying defensive data, they have been leaking goals, conceding five in their opening four.

Raheem Sterling (40%) also disappointed buyers last week after his 19 point haul the week before but remains Chelsea’s most likely route to goal with both his scoring and assist potential. Bournemouth have conceded four goals to right sided wingers in their first four games (Bowen, Salah, Kulusevski and Mbuemo) which bodes well for Sterling this week.

On our bench in attack this week is Andreas Pereira with a plum home fixture against Luton, as well as Marvelous Nakamba who is a decent bench fodder option at £4.5m.

Clean sheet odds gameweek 5

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City43%2.35
Aston Villa37%2.7
Nottingham Forest36%2.8
Man Utd25%3.95
Crystal Palace22%4.6
West Ham14%7
Sheffield Utd10%10.5
Clean sheet odds gameweek 5

Spurs (52%) top the table in terms of defensive odds this weekend, having kept two clean sheets in their first four games, one of only two teams to do so.

This weekend they welcome Sheffield United who, despite scoring two against Everton last time out, have been less than inspiring upfront. Bottom amongst all teams who have played four games for big chances (5), as well as xG (2.87) it’s clear the Blades are looking a bit blunt in attack.

Pedro Porro (£5.0m) and Destiny Udogie (£4.7m) make a good defensive double up, but offer loads in attacking potential as well. The former offers a bit more in terms of goal threat while the latter offers more in the way of assists, but combined, they make for an exciting pair.

Surprisingly, Fulham (44%) come out second in terms of clean sheet odds this weekend having kept just one clean sheet so far this season.

This week they host Luton Town who despite scoring a couple of goals so far are bottom for xG from open play as well as 19th for big chances, though they have only played three games so far.

Bernd Leno has made the most saves of any keeper so far this season with 22. The ex-Arsenal shot stopper is always a decent option between the sticks with the potential for massive hauls in any game.

Newcastle (44%) are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league so far this season, however, their underlying defensive data looks good, despite tough fixtures. Eddie Howe’s men are joint first with Man City for big chances conceded (4) and 6th for expected goals conceded xGC despite playing Man City (away), Liverpool (home) and Brighton (away) in their opening four games.

Fabian Schar (£5.0m) is always a menace in the air. No defender had more shots, shots on target, shots in the box, big chances or xG in home games than the Swiss last season.

Man City (43%) are the other side with two clean sheets from their first four but remain statistically the strongest defence.

This week they travel to West Ham, who will be feeling bullish after their fine start to the season. David Moyes’ men will hope to catch City on the counter, however their numbers for shots, shots in the box, big chances and xG are all distinctly mid-table.

City on the other hand are number one across all defensive metrics and will provide a much tougher test than West Ham have faced thus far.

Manuel Akanji seems to be a safe pick in this City backline but it’s anyone’s guess really. We’re rolling the dice on him this weekend.

On the bench for us this week are Matt Turner (£4.0m) with a reasonable shout of a clean sheet at home to Burnley, as well as Issa Kabore (£4.0m) who continues to look like the best defensive fodder in the game.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here