Gameweek 4 saw the Bookies Advantage XI catch a double hattrick, with the inclusion of Son Heung-min (6.0% TSB) & Erling Haaland (91% TSB), raking in 88 points in what was a very successful weekend and making it four out of four in terms of captaincy returns this season.
After a painstaking fortnight of FPL-free football, we return to fantasy land this weekend with the “Big Seven” sides unsurprisingly dominating our starting lineup.
In the Bookies Advantage XI in Gameweek 5 is an exciting mix of explosive differentials, paired nicely with some old reliables.
Check out our captaincy advice for gameweek 5 here
Goalscorer odds Gameweek 5
| Player | Probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 65% | 1.54 | MCI | FWD |
| Son Heung-Min | 58% | 1.73 | TOT | MID |
| Mohamed Salah | 55% | 1.83 | LIV | MID |
| Darwin Nunez | 52% | 1.92 | LIV | FWD |
| Callum Wilson | 45% | 2.23 | NEW | FWD |
| Richarlison | 44% | 2.25 | TOT | FWD |
| Nicolas Jackson | 44% | 2.28 | CHE | FWD |
| Alexander Isak | 44% | 2.28 | NEW | FWD |
| Gabriel Jesus | 43% | 2.35 | ARS | FWD |
| Carlos Vinicius | 43% | 2.35 | FUL | FWD |
| Ollie Watkins | 41% | 2.45 | AVL | FWD |
| James Maddison | 41% | 2.45 | TOT | MID |
| Raheem Sterling | 40% | 2.5 | CHE | MID |
| Diego Jota | 40% | 2.5 | LIV | MID |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | 40% | 2.5 | NFO | FWD |
| Eddie Nketiah | 39% | 2.55 | ARS | FWD |
| Bukayo Saka | 39% | 2.55 | ARS | MID |
| Evan Ferguson | 39% | 2.55 | BHA | FWD |
| Julian Alvarez | 38% | 2.6 | MCI | FWD |
| Harvey Barnes | 38% | 2.63 | NEW | MID |
| Luis Díaz | 36% | 2.75 | LIV | MID |
| Marcus Rashford | 36% | 2.8 | MUN | MID |
| Moussa Diaby | 33% | 3 | AVL | MID |
| Odsonne Edouard | 33% | 3 | CRY | FWD |
| Bruno Fernandes | 33% | 3 | MUN | MID |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 32% | 3.1 | ARS | MID |
| Dominic Solanke | 31% | 3.2 | BOU | FWD |
| Kai Havertz | 31% | 3.25 | ARS | MID |
| Cody Gakpo | 31% | 3.25 | LIV | FWD |
| Phil Foden | 31% | 3.25 | MCI | MID |
| Kieffer Moore | 29% | 3.45 | BOU | FWD |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 29% | 3.45 | CRY | FWD |
| Bobby Reid | 28% | 3.55 | FUL | MID |
| Leandro Trossard | 28% | 3.6 | ARS | MID |
| Martin Odegaard | 27% | 3.65 | ARS | MID |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 27% | 3.7 | EVE | FWD |
| Yoane Wissa | 27% | 3.75 | BRE | FWD |
| Miguel Almiron | 27% | 3.75 | NEW | MID |
| Sasa Kalajdzic | 27% | 3.75 | WOL | FWD |
| Kaoru Mitoma | 26% | 3.8 | BHA | MID |
| Harry Wilson | 26% | 3.8 | FUL | MID |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 26% | 3.85 | TOT | MID |
| João Pedro | 25% | 3.95 | BHA | FWD |
| Anthony Martial | 24% | 4.1 | MUN | FWD |
| Andreas Pereira | 24% | 4.25 | FUL | MID |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 23% | 4.35 | BRE | MID |
| Jadon Sancho | 23% | 4.4 | MUN | MID |
| Eberechi Eze | 22% | 4.5 | CRY | MID |
| Anthony Gordon | 22% | 4.6 | NEW | MID |
| Elijah Adebayo | 21% | 4.7 | LUT | FWD |
| Arnaout Danjuma | 21% | 4.75 | EVE | MID |
| Elliot Anderson | 20% | 5 | NEW | MID |
| Conor Gallagher | 19% | 5.2 | CHE | MID |
| Ivan Perisic | 19% | 5.2 | TOT | DEF |
| Solly March | 19% | 5.25 | BHA | MID |
| Jack Grealish | 19% | 5.25 | MCI | MID |
| Hee-Chan Hwang | 19% | 5.4 | WOL | MID |
| Pascal Gross | 18% | 5.6 | BHA | MID |
| Enzo | 18% | 5.6 | CHE | MID |
| Michail Antonio | 18% | 5.6 | WHU | FWD |
| William Osula | 17% | 5.75 | SHU | FWD |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 17% | 5.8 | NEW | MID |
| Jarrod Bowen | 17% | 5.8 | WHU | MID |
| Reece James | 17% | 6 | CHE | DEF |
| Christian Eriksen | 16% | 6.1 | MUN | MID |
| Mykhaylo Mudryk | 16% | 6.4 | CHE | MID |
| Kevin Schade | 15% | 6.5 | BRE | MID |
| Alex Mac Allister | 15% | 6.5 | LIV | MID |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | 15% | 6.75 | BRE | MID |
| Said Benrahma | 15% | 6.75 | WHU | MID |
| Declan Rice | 13% | 7.6 | ARS | MID |
| Rhian Brewster | 13% | 8 | SHU | FWD |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 10% | 10 | LIV | DEF |
| Virgil van Dijk | 9% | 11.5 | LIV | DEF |
| Ismaila Coulibaly | 6% | 18 | SHU | MID |
Once again, Erling Haaland (65%) is favoured in terms of goal scoring odds, though not as heavily as usual. The Norwegian netted a hattrick and an assist in Gameweek 4 for a 20 point haul, once again showing the perils of any who dare to captain other assets.
It’s become a popular theory among some in the community to back against Haaland in his tougher away games, however the Bookies disagree and the underlying data back that up.
Only Harry Kane scored more away goals than Haaland last season (16 vs 14), and the City striker was the clear number one for both big chances (28) and xG (13.07).
Haaland scored a brace in this fixture last season on his Premier League debut and there’s no reason to think he can’t do the same again this weekend.
Heung-min Son (58%) announced his return to form (and many FPL teams) with a hattrick at Burnley in Gameweek 4 as Spurs ran out 2-5 winners.
This week he takes on Sheffield United at home, a side without a clean sheet and struggling defensively, conceding 12 big chances in four games, they are also 19th for expected goals conceded (9.47).
Having been pushed wide early on, it remains to be seen if Son can sustain his form through the middle for Spurs, but the bookies (and us) are willing to buy a ticket to the raffle.
Mohammed Salah (55%) also returned in Gameweek 4 as Liverpool put in a dominant display against a Villa side who are no mugs. Early signs of a Klopp revival should give fans and FPL managers alike some optimism.
This week he travels to Wolves, joint 19th for big chances conceded (15) and joint 16th for goals conceded so far this season.
Salah is joined by teammate Darwin Nunez (52%) who now has four returns in his last two games with two goals and two assists. The Uruguayan is very much a confidence player and is definitely worth getting while he’s hot.
Alexander Isak (44%) has fallen a bit flat since his opening day brace, though he did put up a decent xG against Brighton last time out. He’ll be hoping to get back on the score sheet this week as he welcomes Brentford to St. James’ Park, while Thomas Frank’s side have good underlying defensive data, they have been leaking goals, conceding five in their opening four.
Raheem Sterling (40%) also disappointed buyers last week after his 19 point haul the week before but remains Chelsea’s most likely route to goal with both his scoring and assist potential. Bournemouth have conceded four goals to right sided wingers in their first four games (Bowen, Salah, Kulusevski and Mbuemo) which bodes well for Sterling this week.
On our bench in attack this week is Andreas Pereira with a plum home fixture against Luton, as well as Marvelous Nakamba who is a decent bench fodder option at £4.5m.
Clean sheet odds gameweek 5
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Tottenham | 52% | 1.94 |
| Fulham | 44% | 2.28 |
| Newcastle | 44% | 2.28 |
| Man City | 43% | 2.35 |
| Arsenal | 42% | 2.38 |
| Liverpool | 42% | 2.4 |
| Aston Villa | 37% | 2.7 |
| Chelsea | 36% | 2.75 |
| Nottingham Forest | 36% | 2.8 |
| Burnley | 26% | 3.8 |
| Man Utd | 25% | 3.95 |
| Crystal Palace | 22% | 4.6 |
| Brighton | 19% | 5.4 |
| Luton | 18% | 5.5 |
| Bournemouth | 17% | 6 |
| Brentford | 15% | 6.75 |
| Everton | 14% | 7 |
| West Ham | 14% | 7 |
| Wolves | 11% | 9 |
| Sheffield Utd | 10% | 10.5 |
Spurs (52%) top the table in terms of defensive odds this weekend, having kept two clean sheets in their first four games, one of only two teams to do so.
This weekend they welcome Sheffield United who, despite scoring two against Everton last time out, have been less than inspiring upfront. Bottom amongst all teams who have played four games for big chances (5), as well as xG (2.87) it’s clear the Blades are looking a bit blunt in attack.
Pedro Porro (£5.0m) and Destiny Udogie (£4.7m) make a good defensive double up, but offer loads in attacking potential as well. The former offers a bit more in terms of goal threat while the latter offers more in the way of assists, but combined, they make for an exciting pair.
Surprisingly, Fulham (44%) come out second in terms of clean sheet odds this weekend having kept just one clean sheet so far this season.
This week they host Luton Town who despite scoring a couple of goals so far are bottom for xG from open play as well as 19th for big chances, though they have only played three games so far.
Bernd Leno has made the most saves of any keeper so far this season with 22. The ex-Arsenal shot stopper is always a decent option between the sticks with the potential for massive hauls in any game.
Newcastle (44%) are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league so far this season, however, their underlying defensive data looks good, despite tough fixtures. Eddie Howe’s men are joint first with Man City for big chances conceded (4) and 6th for expected goals conceded xGC despite playing Man City (away), Liverpool (home) and Brighton (away) in their opening four games.
Fabian Schar (£5.0m) is always a menace in the air. No defender had more shots, shots on target, shots in the box, big chances or xG in home games than the Swiss last season.
Man City (43%) are the other side with two clean sheets from their first four but remain statistically the strongest defence.
This week they travel to West Ham, who will be feeling bullish after their fine start to the season. David Moyes’ men will hope to catch City on the counter, however their numbers for shots, shots in the box, big chances and xG are all distinctly mid-table.
City on the other hand are number one across all defensive metrics and will provide a much tougher test than West Ham have faced thus far.
Manuel Akanji seems to be a safe pick in this City backline but it’s anyone’s guess really. We’re rolling the dice on him this weekend.
On the bench for us this week are Matt Turner (£4.0m) with a reasonable shout of a clean sheet at home to Burnley, as well as Issa Kabore (£4.0m) who continues to look like the best defensive fodder in the game.
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here