The gameweeks are coming thick and fast as we approach a hectic few months. Luckily we have the assistance of the bookies to help us navigate these crucial gameweeks.
This midweek they favour sticking with the tried and trusted FPL assets, bar the inclusion of a Wolves winger with a plum fixture.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 5
|Kevin De Bruyne||44%||2.28||MCI||MID|
|Emile Smith Rowe||29%||3.5||ARS||MID|
|Alexis Mac Allister||25%||4||BHA||MID|
|Bobby De Cordova-Reid||20%||5||FUL||MID|
|Trent Alexander Arnold||13%||7.5||LIV||DEF|
|Virgil Van Dijk||13%||7.5||LIV||DEF|
Did you dare to trust the bookies last weekend? They recommended Haaland over Salah, who justified his selection as he bagged a hat-trick and 17 points at home to Crystal Palace. It’s impossible to look past Haaland (76%) again in Gameweek 5 with massive odds to score against newly promoted Nottingham Forest. They have the highest xGC (expected goals conceded) for the first 4 gameweeks at 7.91 (even higher than Bournemouth!).
The bookies are clear in their selection again, and for the 5th gameweek in a row, Erling Haaland takes the captain’s armband in our XI. However, be aware that the odds are based on the player starting the match. Pep might very well rest the Norwegian, so make your decision accordingly.
The only thing more surprising than the scoreline at Anfield on Saturday was that Mo Salah (52%) had no involvement in any of the nine goals scored. FPL managers must have been pulling their hair out to see the golden opportunities wasted by the prolific goalscorer. So much so that Salah is the 2nd most transferred out player going into Gameweek 5.
This appears to be a mistake. Salah is still getting chances in a Liverpool team starting to find its groove. His underlying data is still good, and this is borne out in the odds.
Playing at home against a Newcastle team who appear to suffer a few injuries, the bookies expect the Egyptian King to return to the scoresheet in Gameweek 5.
Arsenal’s Brazilian duo of Jesus (50%) and Martinelli (36%) continue to rank highly in the goal-scoring odds market. Martinelli, in particular, was unlucky not to come away with a return last week. The winger had five key passes and one big chance created, as well as two shots in the box and one which hit the woodwork.
They come up against a struggling Aston Villa side without a clean sheet in 9 in a run that stretches back to last season. With Mings a doubt through illness it looks as if Arsenal forwards may have the freedom of the Emirates come Wednesday night.
Mitrovic (42%) can’t stop scoring at the moment, having now netted 4 goals in 4 games to start his campaign.
His odds of scoring seem somewhat surprising this week given he comes up against a Brighton side who have conceded just one goal in their first four games, an own goal away at Man United.
If anyone can breach a resolute Brighton defence, it’s the Serbian striker and with a goal involvement rate of 67%, the bookies expect Mitrovic’s good form to continue this weekend.
Lastly, the surprise inclusion of Wolves’ new boy Goncalo Guedes (34%) finalises our starting XI. The Portuguese winger registered his first assist for his new club against Newcastle in Gameweek 4 and looked good from an eye test point of view though the underlying statistics don’t exactly stand out.
The bookies like his chances, though, so he takes up our 3rd midfield spot.
The bench is filled out by Josh Da Silva (13%) and Jacob Murphy (£4.4m) who is a good enabler who may play this week due to Newcastle’s injury problems.
Check out our roundup of the most helpful Twitter posts on gameweek 5
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 5
|Team||Clean Sheet Probability||Odds|
Despite recent defensive performances, it’s unsurprising that Manchester City (63%) are the bookies’ favourites to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 5. The reigning champions have now gone two goals behind in 4 of their last 6 going back to last season, though they have not lost any of these games.
They host Nottingham Forest, who have looked lively if somewhat blunt in attack. They sit 3rd from bottom in terms of xG from open play, while City boasts the lowest xGC this season, conceding 5 goals from an xGC of 2.55.
Many are starting to lose patience with the likes of Joao Cancelo, but this is not the week to sell. He and Walker make up a double City defence in our team for Gameweek 5.
Arsenal (48%) are second most likely to keep a clean sheet this midweek when they host an out-of-sorts Aston Villa, with the pressure on Steven Gerrard growing greater every week.
The Gunners also sit second in terms of xGC (expected goals conceded with just 2.79 expected goals conceded. An unfortunate error cost them their clean sheet at home to Fulham this weekend, but the bookies expect them to put that right against the Villains, who look dreadful in attack.
Arsenal have conceded the least amount of shots from outside the box this season which has led to fewer save opportunities for Aaron Ramsdale. However, with Arsenal’s defence providing him with this protection, he’s our choice between the posts this week.
Liverpool (45%) laid down a marker in Gameweek 4, albeit against weak opposition, with a scoreline that showed they are still a force to be reckoned with at home. They welcome an injury leaden Newcastle to Anfield this midweek, who seem to struggle to score away from home (St. Maximin worldies aside).
Alexander-Arnold punished sellers with a 17-point haul against Bournemouth. His attacking threat just makes him too hard to leave out, and he remains in our side for this week.
Chelsea (39%) continued their slow start defensively in Gameweek 4 though they were forced to play with 10 men for over 60 minutes after a Conor Gallagher red card halfway through the first half.
They play away at a Southampton side struggling for form and goals after failing to find the net at home to Man United in Gameweek 4.
Reece James was very good from an attacking point of view against Leicester on the weekend, getting a nice assist and hitting the woodwork with a brilliant shot. Just like Alexander-Arnold, a mega haul is never far away, and we should keep faith with the Chelsea wingback for now.
Once again Danny Ward (£4.0) makes the bench due to his budget enabler status, as well as Nathan Patterson, winning the battle of the £4.0 defenders with Everton having a 22% chance of a clean sheet compared to Neco Williams and Forest’s 5%.
Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 5
Check out our roundup of the most helpful Twitter posts on gameweek 5
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.