Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 6

A slightly above-average score of 49 in what was a tough week in Gameweek 5 was a creditable result for the Bookies Advantage XI. Two clean sheet returns, a Mo Salah double assist as well as another captaincy return (taking us to 5/5) were our only notable points.

Looking forward to Gameweek 6, once again the top 6 teams dominate the side, with an attacking trio from Liverpool, but that doesn’t mean there’s no place for differentials. In fact, six of our starting XI have less than 10% ownership, while four of those have 5% or less TSB.

Don’t miss our gameweek 6 captaincy candidate roundup here

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscoring Odds gameweek 6

Erling Haaland74%1.35MCIFWD
Mohamed Salah55%1.82LIVMID
Darwin Nunez51%1.98LIVFWD
Callum Wilson50%2.02NEWFWD
Evan Ferguson49%2.04BHAFWD
Julian Alvarez48%2.07MCIFWD
Ansu Fati48%2.1BHAMID
Rasmus Højlund45%2.23MUNFWD
Marcus Rashford43%2.3MUNMID
Alexander Isak43%2.3NEWFWD
Nicolas Jackson42%2.4CHEFWD
Diego Jota42%2.4LIVMID
Gabriel Jesus40%2.5ARSFWD
Eddie Nketiah39%2.55ARSFWD
Yoane Wissa39%2.55BREFWD
Luis Díaz39%2.55LIVMID
Kaoru Mitoma38%2.6BHAMID
Raheem Sterling38%2.63CHEMID
Phil Foden38%2.65MCIMID
Sasa Kalajdzic38%2.65WOLFWD
João Pedro37%2.7BHAFWD
Bukayo Saka36%2.75ARSMID
Bryan Mbeumo36%2.75BREMID
Odsonne Edouard36%2.75CRYFWD
Son Heung-Min36%2.8TOTMID
Eberechi Eze35%2.85CRYMID
Harvey Barnes35%2.85NEWMID
Jeremy Doku34%2.9MCIMID
Bruno Fernandes34%2.9MUNMID
Solly March33%3.05BHAMID
Jean-Philippe Mateta33%3.05CRYFWD
Ollie Watkins32%3.15AVLFWD
Carlton Morris31%3.2LUTFWD
Gabriel Martinelli31%3.25ARSMID
Cody Gakpo30%3.35LIVFWD
Miguel Almiron30%3.35NEWMID
Carlos Vinicius29%3.4FULFWD
Cameron Archer29%3.5SHUFWD
Dominic Solanke29%3.5BOUFWD
Neal Maupay29%3.5BREFWD
Kai Havertz27%3.65ARSMID
Kevin Schade27%3.65BREMID
Anthony Martial27%3.65MUNFWD
Bernardo Silva27%3.7MCIMID
Hee-Chan Hwang27%3.7WOLMID
Pascal Gross26%3.8BHAMID
Anthony Gordon26%3.85NEWMID
Leandro Trossard25%3.95ARSMID
Keane Lewis-Potter25%3.95BREMID
Raúl Jiménez25%3.95FULFWD
Martin Odegaard25%4ARSMID
Moussa Diaby25%4AVLMID
Jay Rodriguez24%4.1BURFWD
Zeki Amdouni24%4.1BURFWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin24%4.1EVEFWD
Elijah Adebayo24%4.1LUTFWD
Jack Grealish24%4.1MCIMID
Kieffer Moore24%4.2BOUFWD
Rodrigo Muniz23%4.4FULFWD
Taiwo Awoniyi22%4.5NFOFWD
James Maddison22%4.5TOTMID
Arnaout Danjuma22%4.6EVEMID
Justin Kluivert21%4.7BOUMID
Mason Mount21%4.7MUNMID
Jarrod Bowen21%4.8WHUMID
Danny Ings21%4.8WHUFWD
Michail Antonio20%5WHUFWD
Alex Mac Allister19%5.2LIVMID
Elliot Anderson19%5.3NEWMID
Leon Bailey18%5.5AVLMID
William Osula18%5.5SHUFWD
Conor Gallagher18%5.6CHEMID
Bobby Reid18%5.6FULMID
Bruno Guimaraes17%5.8NEWMID
Said Benrahma16%6.1WHUMID
Christian Eriksen16%6.4MUNMID
Harry Wilson15%6.5FULMID
Philip Billing15%6.75BOUMID
Nathan Redmond15%6.75BURMID
Reece James15%6.75CHEDEF
Mykhaylo Mudryk15%6.75CHEMID
Rhian Brewster15%6.75SHUFWD
Dejan Kulusevski15%6.75TOTMID
Andreas Pereira14%7FULMID
Chris Wood14%7NFOFWD
Declan Rice13%8ARSMID
Sander Berge13%8BURMID
Ivan Perisic13%8TOTDEF
Sandro Tonali12%8.5NEWMID
Morgan Gibbs-White12%8.5NFOFWD
Trent Alexander-Arnold10%10LIVDEF
Virgil van Dijk10%10.5LIVDEF
Goalscorer odds gameweek 6

Those who bet against Erling Haaland (74%) with the captaincy in Gameweek 5 can consider themselves very lucky. The City striker hit the woodwork twice and missed four big chances, scoring one goal from an expected goal involvement (xGI) of 1.75.

It’s doubtful any will make the same mistake this week as City welcome a Nottingham Forest side who conceded three on their last trip to Manchester. Guardiola’s men won 6-0 in this fixture last year with Haaland scoring a hattrick.

He’s a no brainer for captaincy this weekend.

Mohammed Salah (55%) is one of only two players yet to blank this season, with two goals and four assists in five games the Liverpool man is ticking along nicely and remains somewhat low owned at just 27.7%.

Gameweek 6 sees him take on West Ham at home, who received a little dose of reality last week after their good start to the season. The Hammers underlying defensive data doesn’t look brilliant as they sit 19th for shots conceded (101), 18th for shots in the box conceded (60), joint 14th for big chances conceded (15) and 17th for expected goals conceded (xGC) with 10.44.

Meanwhile Salah is number one amongst all midfielders who have played significant minutes for xG, xGI while also scoring highly for shots in the box (15) and big chances (4).

Such is the bookies confidence in Liverpool this week that Darwin Nunez (51%) and Diogo Jota (42%) join Salah in a Liverpool attacking triple up. Nunez was rested last week but still looked dangerous off the bench racking up an xGI of 0.40 in 34 minutes. Expected to come back in this week he makes for an explosive option.

Jota meanwhile always seems to deliver when he plays, the Portuguese has an xG per 90 of 0.9 and an xGI per 90 of 1.2 so far this season.

Rasmus Hojlund (45%) has impressed in his opening three games for Manchester United, finally getting off the mark in midweek against Bayern Munich. With question marks over the minutes of both Callum Wilson (50%) and Evan Ferguson (49%), we’ve opted for the young Dane this week.

With such little minutes played it hard to glean much data from Hojlund’s performances but his opposition this week, Burnley, seem to have a weakness centrally as they conceded two to Haaland on the opening day as well as conceding three to Son Heung-min when he played centrally in Gameweek 4.

Marcus Rashford (43%) joins his Manchester United team mate in our XI this week, last weekend he had nine shots, hitting the woodwork with one and was literally inches away from an assist. The mercurial winger is worth holding on to this week.

On the bench for us in attack this week is Elliot Anderson who may get the nod for Newcastle this week, as well Marvelous Nakamba who is a safe bench fodder option at £4.4m.

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Clean sheet odds gameweek 6

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City57%1.74
Crystal Palace39%2.55
Man Utd37%2.7
Aston Villa20%5.1
Sheffield Utd15%6.5
West Ham11%9
Nottingham Forest8%13
Clean sheet odds gameweek 6

Manchester City (57%) continue to frustrate FPL managers on a weekly basis as they fail to keep clean sheets despite the imperious underlying data.

Pep Guardiola’s side remain number one for shots conceded, shots in the box conceded, shots on target conceded and xGC but still have just two clean sheets in five. The only metric they are not top for is big chances conceded where they are just one behind Arsenal and Newcastle with five each.

But as we are gluttons for punishment here, and because we follow the bookies always, we’re doubling up on City defence once again. The lottery is not as tough amid an injury crisis, we’ve gone for Kyle Walker, who has started every game so far this season as well as Manuel Akanji, who has started all but one due to an illness.

Arsenal (49%) put in another dominant away display as they restricted Everton to just 0.34 xG last weekend and continue their strange habit of keeping far more clean sheets on the road than they do at home.

This week they host a renewed Tottenham Hotspur side so I was quite surprised to see them second on the list, as the North London Derby usually means goals.

Spurs attacking stats do look quite good though fixtures have been kind so far which needs to be accounted for.

Oleksander Zinchenko (£4.9m) offers by far the most attacking threat and is a bonus point monster when he plays. At just 5.1% TSB, he could be a great differential this weekend.

Newcastle United (45%) kept their first clean sheet of the season last weekend at home to Brentford before keeping another in midweek away in Milan.

They should have an easier test this weekend when they take on Sheffield United away in Gameweek 6, as they look to get their season up and running after a poor start. The Blades remain blunt in attack, sitting bottom for shots, xG and big chances (excluding Burnley who played a game less.

Newcastle sit about 3rd or 4th in most defensive metrics and Fabian Schar is the man to pick from their defence this week as Sheffield United look weak when it comes to set pieces.

Brentford (41%) have been unlucky to keep just one clean sheet so far this season but should have a good chance this week when they take on an Everton side who are stuttering in attack with just two goals so far this season.

Flekken is the ideal candidate from the Brentford defence here as, this season, they seem to create a decent amount of chances but with no end product. This should mean plenty of opportunities for save points which the Dutchman has already collected three of this season.

On the bench for us in defence this week is Matt Turner (£4.0m) as well as Issa Kabore with a decent home fixture vs Wolves.

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Bookie’s Team of Gameweek 6

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here