Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 6

A slightly above-average score of 49 in what was a tough week in Gameweek 5 was a creditable result for the Bookies Advantage XI. Two clean sheet returns, a Mo Salah double assist as well as another captaincy return (taking us to 5/5) were our only notable points.

Looking forward to Gameweek 6, once again the top 6 teams dominate the side, with an attacking trio from Liverpool, but that doesn’t mean there’s no place for differentials. In fact, six of our starting XI have less than 10% ownership, while four of those have 5% or less TSB.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.

Notes:

• We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.

• The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Player	Probability	Odds	Team	Position
Erling Haaland	74%	1.35	MCI	FWD
Mohamed Salah	55%	1.82	LIV	MID
Darwin Nunez	51%	1.98	LIV	FWD
Callum Wilson	50%	2.02	NEW	FWD
Evan Ferguson	49%	2.04	BHA	FWD
Julian Alvarez	48%	2.07	MCI	FWD
Ansu Fati	48%	2.1	BHA	MID
Rasmus Højlund	45%	2.23	MUN	FWD
Marcus Rashford	43%	2.3	MUN	MID
Alexander Isak	43%	2.3	NEW	FWD
Nicolas Jackson	42%	2.4	CHE	FWD
Diego Jota	42%	2.4	LIV	MID
Gabriel Jesus	40%	2.5	ARS	FWD
Eddie Nketiah	39%	2.55	ARS	FWD
Yoane Wissa	39%	2.55	BRE	FWD
Luis Díaz	39%	2.55	LIV	MID
Kaoru Mitoma	38%	2.6	BHA	MID
Raheem Sterling	38%	2.63	CHE	MID
Phil Foden	38%	2.65	MCI	MID
Sasa Kalajdzic	38%	2.65	WOL	FWD
João Pedro	37%	2.7	BHA	FWD
Bukayo Saka	36%	2.75	ARS	MID
Bryan Mbeumo	36%	2.75	BRE	MID
Odsonne Edouard	36%	2.75	CRY	FWD
Son Heung-Min	36%	2.8	TOT	MID
Eberechi Eze	35%	2.85	CRY	MID
Harvey Barnes	35%	2.85	NEW	MID
Jeremy Doku	34%	2.9	MCI	MID
Bruno Fernandes	34%	2.9	MUN	MID
Solly March	33%	3.05	BHA	MID
Jean-Philippe Mateta	33%	3.05	CRY	FWD
Ollie Watkins	32%	3.15	AVL	FWD
Carlton Morris	31%	3.2	LUT	FWD
Gabriel Martinelli	31%	3.25	ARS	MID
Cody Gakpo	30%	3.35	LIV	FWD
Miguel Almiron	30%	3.35	NEW	MID
Carlos Vinicius	29%	3.4	FUL	FWD
Cameron Archer	29%	3.5	SHU	FWD
Dominic Solanke	29%	3.5	BOU	FWD
Neal Maupay	29%	3.5	BRE	FWD
Kai Havertz	27%	3.65	ARS	MID
Kevin Schade	27%	3.65	BRE	MID
Anthony Martial	27%	3.65	MUN	FWD
Bernardo Silva	27%	3.7	MCI	MID
Hee-Chan Hwang	27%	3.7	WOL	MID
Richarlison	27%	3.75	TOT	FWD
Pascal Gross	26%	3.8	BHA	MID
Anthony Gordon	26%	3.85	NEW	MID
Leandro Trossard	25%	3.95	ARS	MID
Keane Lewis-Potter	25%	3.95	BRE	MID
Raúl Jiménez	25%	3.95	FUL	FWD
Martin Odegaard	25%	4	ARS	MID
Moussa Diaby	25%	4	AVL	MID
Jay Rodriguez	24%	4.1	BUR	FWD
Zeki Amdouni	24%	4.1	BUR	FWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	24%	4.1	EVE	FWD
Elijah Adebayo	24%	4.1	LUT	FWD
Jack Grealish	24%	4.1	MCI	MID
Kieffer Moore	24%	4.2	BOU	FWD
Rodrigo Muniz	23%	4.4	FUL	FWD
Taiwo Awoniyi	22%	4.5	NFO	FWD
James Maddison	22%	4.5	TOT	MID
Arnaout Danjuma	22%	4.6	EVE	MID
Justin Kluivert	21%	4.7	BOU	MID
Mason Mount	21%	4.7	MUN	MID
Rodri	21%	4.8	MCI	MID
Jarrod Bowen	21%	4.8	WHU	MID
Danny Ings	21%	4.8	WHU	FWD
Michail Antonio	20%	5	WHU	FWD
Alex Mac Allister	19%	5.2	LIV	MID
Elliot Anderson	19%	5.3	NEW	MID
Leon Bailey	18%	5.5	AVL	MID
William Osula	18%	5.5	SHU	FWD
Conor Gallagher	18%	5.6	CHE	MID
Bobby Reid	18%	5.6	FUL	MID
Enzo	17%	5.8	CHE	MID
Bruno Guimaraes	17%	5.8	NEW	MID
Said Benrahma	16%	6.1	WHU	MID
Christian Eriksen	16%	6.4	MUN	MID
Harry Wilson	15%	6.5	FUL	MID
Philip Billing	15%	6.75	BOU	MID
Nathan Redmond	15%	6.75	BUR	MID
Reece James	15%	6.75	CHE	DEF
Mykhaylo Mudryk	15%	6.75	CHE	MID
Rhian Brewster	15%	6.75	SHU	FWD
Dejan Kulusevski	15%	6.75	TOT	MID
Andreas Pereira	14%	7	FUL	MID
Chris Wood	14%	7	NFO	FWD
Declan Rice	13%	8	ARS	MID
Sander Berge	13%	8	BUR	MID
Ivan Perisic	13%	8	TOT	DEF
Sandro Tonali	12%	8.5	NEW	MID
Morgan Gibbs-White	12%	8.5	NFO	FWD
Trent Alexander-Arnold	10%	10	LIV	DEF
Virgil van Dijk	10%	10.5	LIV	DEF

Those who bet against Erling Haaland (74%) with the captaincy in Gameweek 5 can consider themselves very lucky. The City striker hit the woodwork twice and missed four big chances, scoring one goal from an expected goal involvement (xGI) of 1.75.

It’s doubtful any will make the same mistake this week as City welcome a Nottingham Forest side who conceded three on their last trip to Manchester. Guardiola’s men won 6-0 in this fixture last year with Haaland scoring a hattrick.

He’s a no brainer for captaincy this weekend.

Mohammed Salah (55%) is one of only two players yet to blank this season, with two goals and four assists in five games the Liverpool man is ticking along nicely and remains somewhat low owned at just 27.7%.

Gameweek 6 sees him take on West Ham at home, who received a little dose of reality last week after their good start to the season. The Hammers underlying defensive data doesn’t look brilliant as they sit 19th for shots conceded (101), 18th for shots in the box conceded (60), joint 14th for big chances conceded (15) and 17th for expected goals conceded (xGC) with 10.44.

Meanwhile Salah is number one amongst all midfielders who have played significant minutes for xG, xGI while also scoring highly for shots in the box (15) and big chances (4).

Such is the bookies confidence in Liverpool this week that Darwin Nunez (51%) and Diogo Jota (42%) join Salah in a Liverpool attacking triple up. Nunez was rested last week but still looked dangerous off the bench racking up an xGI of 0.40 in 34 minutes. Expected to come back in this week he makes for an explosive option.

Jota meanwhile always seems to deliver when he plays, the Portuguese has an xG per 90 of 0.9 and an xGI per 90 of 1.2 so far this season.

Rasmus Hojlund (45%) has impressed in his opening three games for Manchester United, finally getting off the mark in midweek against Bayern Munich. With question marks over the minutes of both Callum Wilson (50%) and Evan Ferguson (49%), we’ve opted for the young Dane this week.

With such little minutes played it hard to glean much data from Hojlund’s performances but his opposition this week, Burnley, seem to have a weakness centrally as they conceded two to Haaland on the opening day as well as conceding three to Son Heung-min when he played centrally in Gameweek 4.

Marcus Rashford (43%) joins his Manchester United team mate in our XI this week, last weekend he had nine shots, hitting the woodwork with one and was literally inches away from an assist. The mercurial winger is worth holding on to this week.

On the bench for us in attack this week is Elliot Anderson who may get the nod for Newcastle this week, as well Marvelous Nakamba who is a safe bench fodder option at £4.4m.

Team	Clean Sheet Probability	Odds
Man City	57%	1.74
Arsenal	49%	2.05
Newcastle	45%	2.2
Brentford	41%	2.45
Brighton	39%	2.55
Crystal Palace	39%	2.55
Liverpool	38%	2.6
Man Utd	37%	2.7
Chelsea	34%	2.9
Wolves	34%	2.9
Luton	26%	3.9
Fulham	24%	4.2
Everton	20%	5
Aston Villa	20%	5.1
Burnley	16%	6.1
Tottenham	16%	6.4
Sheffield Utd	15%	6.5
West Ham	11%	9
Bournemouth	10%	10.5
Nottingham Forest	8%	13

Manchester City (57%) continue to frustrate FPL managers on a weekly basis as they fail to keep clean sheets despite the imperious underlying data.

Pep Guardiola’s side remain number one for shots conceded, shots in the box conceded, shots on target conceded and xGC but still have just two clean sheets in five. The only metric they are not top for is big chances conceded where they are just one behind Arsenal and Newcastle with five each.

But as we are gluttons for punishment here, and because we follow the bookies always, we’re doubling up on City defence once again. The lottery is not as tough amid an injury crisis, we’ve gone for Kyle Walker, who has started every game so far this season as well as Manuel Akanji, who has started all but one due to an illness.

Arsenal (49%) put in another dominant away display as they restricted Everton to just 0.34 xG last weekend and continue their strange habit of keeping far more clean sheets on the road than they do at home.

This week they host a renewed Tottenham Hotspur side so I was quite surprised to see them second on the list, as the North London Derby usually means goals.

Spurs attacking stats do look quite good though fixtures have been kind so far which needs to be accounted for.

Oleksander Zinchenko (£4.9m) offers by far the most attacking threat and is a bonus point monster when he plays. At just 5.1% TSB, he could be a great differential this weekend.

Newcastle United (45%) kept their first clean sheet of the season last weekend at home to Brentford before keeping another in midweek away in Milan.

They should have an easier test this weekend when they take on Sheffield United away in Gameweek 6, as they look to get their season up and running after a poor start. The Blades remain blunt in attack, sitting bottom for shots, xG and big chances (excluding Burnley who played a game less.

Newcastle sit about 3rd or 4th in most defensive metrics and Fabian Schar is the man to pick from their defence this week as Sheffield United look weak when it comes to set pieces.

Brentford (41%) have been unlucky to keep just one clean sheet so far this season but should have a good chance this week when they take on an Everton side who are stuttering in attack with just two goals so far this season.

Flekken is the ideal candidate from the Brentford defence here as, this season, they seem to create a decent amount of chances but with no end product. This should mean plenty of opportunities for save points which the Dutchman has already collected three of this season.

On the bench for us in defence this week is Matt Turner (£4.0m) as well as Issa Kabore with a decent home fixture vs Wolves.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here