The Egyptian king is dead; long live the king from the North!
A new perma-captain arises, as this week in defence, we stick to familiar faces and take a few punts up front. The bigger hitters remain in place, as reliable as ever, while an FPL veteran returns to the fold.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 6
| Player | Goal probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 61% | 1.63 | MCI | FWD |
| Harry Kane | 53% | 1.89 | TOT | FWD |
| Mohamed Salah | 49% | 2.04 | LIV | MID |
| Ivan Toney | 48% | 2.1 | BRE | FWD |
| Darwin Nunez | 46% | 2.16 | LIV | FWD |
| Julian Alvarez | 46% | 2.18 | MCI | FWD |
| Diogo Jota | 43% | 2.3 | LIV | MID |
| Raul Jimenez | 43% | 2.3 | WOL | FWD |
| Heung-Min Son | 43% | 2.33 | TOT | MID |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 40% | 2.5 | MUN | FWD |
| Alexander Isak | 38% | 2.6 | NEW | FWD |
| Patrick Bamford | 38% | 2.6 | LEE | FWD |
| Roberto Firmino | 38% | 2.65 | LIV | FWD |
| Luis Diaz | 38% | 2.65 | LIV | MID |
| Richarlison | 37% | 2.7 | TOT | FWD |
| Lyle Taylor | 37% | 2.7 | NFO | FWD |
| Emmanuel Dennis | 37% | 2.7 | NFO | FWD |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | 37% | 2.7 | NFO | FWD |
| Jamie Vardy | 37% | 2.7 | LEI | FWD |
| Gabriel Jesus | 37% | 2.7 | ARS | FWD |
| Goncalo Guedes | 36% | 2.8 | WOL | MID |
| Raheem Sterling | 36% | 2.8 | CHE | MID |
| Sam Surridge | 36% | 2.8 | BOU | FWD |
| Deniz Undav | 36% | 2.8 | BHA | FWD |
| Danny Welbeck | 36% | 2.8 | BHA | FWD |
| Armando Broja | 35% | 2.85 | CHE | FWD |
| Kai Havertz | 34% | 2.95 | CHE | FWD |
| Riyad Mahrez | 33% | 3.05 | MCI | MID |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 33% | 3.05 | MCI | MID |
| Hakim Ziyech | 32% | 3.1 | CHE | MID |
| Yoane Wissa | 32% | 3.1 | BRE | MID |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | 32% | 3.15 | FUL | FWD |
| Fabio Carvalho | 31% | 3.2 | LIV | MID |
| Christian Pulisic | 31% | 3.2 | CHE | MID |
| Brennan Johnson | 31% | 3.2 | NFO | FWD |
| Odsonne Edouard | 30% | 3.3 | CRY | FWD |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 30% | 3.3 | CRY | FWD |
| Patson Daka | 30% | 3.3 | LEI | FWD |
| Eddie Nketiah | 30% | 3.3 | ARS | FWD |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 29% | 3.4 | TOT | MID |
| Mason Mount | 29% | 3.4 | CHE | MID |
| Kelechi Iheanacho | 29% | 3.4 | LEI | FWD |
| Phil Foden | 29% | 3.45 | MCI | MID |
| Bruno Fernandes | 29% | 3.45 | MUN | MID |
| Che Adams | 29% | 3.5 | SOU | FWD |
| Adam Armstrong | 29% | 3.5 | SOU | FWD |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | 29% | 3.5 | BRE | MID |
| Hwang Hee-Chan | 28% | 3.6 | WOL | MID |
| Sekou Mara | 28% | 3.6 | SOU | FWD |
| Wilfried Zaha | 28% | 3.6 | CRY | MID |
| Dominic Solanke | 28% | 3.6 | BOU | FWD |
| Leandro Trossard | 28% | 3.6 | BHA | MID |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 28% | 3.6 | BHA | MID |
| Anthony Martial | 28% | 3.6 | MUN | FWD |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 27% | 3.65 | BRE | FWD |
| Joe Gelhardt | 26% | 3.8 | LEE | FWD |
| Kieffer Moore | 26% | 3.8 | BOU | FWD |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 26% | 3.8 | ARS | MID |
| Marcus Rashford | 26% | 3.9 | MUN | MID |
| Ilkay Gundogan | 25% | 3.95 | MCI | MID |
| Pedro Neto | 25% | 4 | WOL | MID |
| Daniel Podence | 25% | 4 | WOL | MID |
| Gianluca Scamacca | 25% | 4 | WHU | FWD |
| Michail Antonio | 25% | 4 | WHU | FWD |
| Ryan Christie | 25% | 4 | BOU | MID |
| Enock Mwepu | 25% | 4 | BHA | MID |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | 24% | 4.2 | NFO | MID |
| Jesse Lingard | 24% | 4.2 | NFO | MID |
| Bukayo Saka | 24% | 4.25 | ARS | MID |
| Harvey Elliott | 23% | 4.3 | LIV | MID |
| Malcolm Ebiowei | 23% | 4.4 | NEW | MID |
| Jorginho | 23% | 4.4 | CHE | MID |
| Mikkel Damsgaard | 23% | 4.4 | BRE | MID |
| Daniel James | 23% | 4.4 | LEE | MID |
| Jack Grealish | 23% | 4.4 | MCI | MID |
| Bernardo Silva | 23% | 4.4 | MCI | MID |
| Emile Smith Rowe | 23% | 4.4 | ARS | MID |
| Allan Saint-Maximin | 22% | 4.5 | NEW | MID |
| Joe Willock | 22% | 4.6 | NEW | MID |
| Maxwel Cornet | 22% | 4.6 | WHU | MID |
| Ivan Perisic | 21% | 4.75 | TOT | DEF |
| Neal Maupay | 21% | 4.8 | EVE | FWD |
| Luis Sinisterra | 21% | 4.8 | LEE | MID |
| James Maddison | 21% | 4.8 | LEI | MID |
| Antony | 21% | 4.8 | MUN | MID |
| Danny Ings | 20% | 4.9 | AVL | FWD |
| Ollie Watkins | 20% | 4.9 | AVL | FWD |
| Jadon Sancho | 20% | 4.9 | MUN | MID |
| Ruben Neves | 20% | 5 | WOL | MID |
| Mohamed Elyounoussi | 20% | 5 | SOU | MID |
| Joelinton | 20% | 5 | NEW | MID |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 20% | 5 | NEW | FWD |
| Ryan Fraser | 20% | 5 | NEW | FWD |
| Brenden Aaronson | 20% | 5 | LEE | MID |
| Harvey Barnes | 20% | 5 | LEI | MID |
| Pascal Gross | 20% | 5 | BHA | MID |
| Martin Odegaard | 20% | 5.1 | ARS | MID |
| Anthony Gordon | 19% | 5.4 | EVE | MID |
| Anthony Elanga | 19% | 5.4 | MUN | MID |
| Eberechi Eze | 18% | 5.5 | CRY | MID |
| Michael Olise | 18% | 5.5 | CRY | MID |
| Miguel Almiron | 18% | 5.5 | NEW | MID |
| Jarrod Bowen | 18% | 5.5 | WHU | MID |
| Jack Harrison | 18% | 5.5 | LEE | MID |
| Elliot Anderson | 17% | 5.75 | NEW | MID |
| Pablo Fornals | 17% | 6 | WHU | MID |
| Lucas Paqueta | 17% | 6 | WHU | MID |
| Said Benrahma | 17% | 6 | WHU | MID |
| Christian Eriksen | 16% | 6.25 | MUN | MID |
| Josh Dasilva | 16% | 6.4 | BRE | MID |
| Manuel Lanzini | 15% | 6.5 | WHU | MID |
| Demarai Gray | 15% | 6.75 | EVE | MID |
| Ryan Sessegnon | 15% | 6.75 | TOT | DEF |
| Bobby De Cordova-Reid | 15% | 6.75 | FUL | MID |
| Reece James | 15% | 6.75 | CHE | DEF |
| Philippe Coutinho | 14% | 7 | AVL | MID |
| Leon Bailey | 14% | 7 | AVL | MID |
| Emiliano Buendia | 13% | 7.5 | AVL | MID |
| Virgil Van Dijk | 13% | 8 | LIV | DEF |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 13% | 8 | LIV | DEF |
| Tomas Soucek | 13% | 8 | WHU | MID |
| Ben Chilwell | 12% | 8.5 | CHE | DEF |
| Joao Cancelo | 11% | 9 | MCI | DEF |
| Andrew Robertson | 10% | 10.5 | LIV | DEF |
| John McGinn | 9% | 11 | AVL | MID |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko | 8% | 12 | ARS | DEF |
| Marc Cucurella | 8% | 13 | CHE | DEF |
Haaland (61%) is unstoppable at this moment in time as the Man City juggernaut gathers momentum.
Back-to-back hattricks have broken many a manager’s heart as rotation fears grow with every passing game. But, it seems Pep Roulette is the only thing that can stop the relentless force that is Erling Haaland.
This week he travels to an Aston Villa side under immense pressure. Gerrard’s men conceded chance after chance against Arsenal on Wednesday. If they defend similarly in Gameweek 6, I fear it may be a bloodbath.
Erling Haaland, for the sixth gameweek in a row, takes the captain’s armband for us. Has the City striker usurped Mo Salah as the King of FPL?
Speaking of Salah (49%), he managed to throw a lifeline to those who chose to captain him over Haaland in midweek with two assists and a couple of bonus points. Even still, Liverpool look far from convincing in attack. They play a dogged Everton team that will no doubt smell blood come Saturday at Goodison.
Having said that, Everton have conceded the 3rd most xG from open play in the league (8.10). Salah’s good recent record against Everton (3 goals, 1 assist in 4 games) makes him an easy inclusion in our team this week.
Riyad Mahrez (33%) also comes in for City. The Algerian winger managed an assist off the bench during the week and has been one of the biggest underperformers of his xG the last two gameweeks. However, the bookies are betting on this, meaning that goals are imminent.
Ivan Toney (48%) has had a decent start to the new season, bagging two goals and two assists in his first five games. He was also 6th of shots in the box, 5th for xGI and joint 3rd for Big Chances (level with Jesus and Kane). He plays Leeds at home this week, who have looked less than convincing in away games so far this season.
The last two names on the team sheet may surprise some, given their team’s slow start to the season. FPL veteran Raul Jimenez (43%) and new boy Goncalo Guedes (36%) are both included in our lineup this week.
Jimenez had 5 shots in the box and 1 big chance this week and really should have scored. If he keeps getting such high-quality opportunities, he will eventually tuck one away.
Filling out the bench are midfielders Andreas (13%), who grabbed another assist during the week, and Newcastle’s Jacob Murphy, who is an excellent enabler at £4.4m.
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 6
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Liverpool | 47% | 2.15 |
| Man City | 46% | 2.18 |
| Chelsea | 44% | 2.25 |
| Tottenham | 44% | 2.28 |
| Nottingham Forest | 40% | 2.5 |
| Brighton | 38% | 2.63 |
| Newcastle | 38% | 2.65 |
| Wolves | 34% | 2.95 |
| Brentford | 31% | 3.25 |
| Bournemouth | 25% | 4 |
| Southampton | 24% | 4.1 |
| Man Utd | 24% | 4.2 |
| Arsenal | 24% | 4.25 |
| Crystal Palace | 24% | 4.25 |
| Leeds | 21% | 4.75 |
| Leicester | 21% | 4.8 |
| West Ham | 15% | 6.75 |
| Fulham | 13% | 7.5 |
| Everton | 12% | 8.5 |
| Aston Villa | 11% | 9.5 |
Liverpool (47%) had another ropey performance during the week as they relied on a very late goal to breach the Newcastle defence.
The bookies look to allay fears this week and counsel trust in the Red’s defence to steady the ship. They welcome a steadily improving Everton side in a challenging derby for Jurgen Klopp’s men.
After Alexander-Arnold’s 17-point-haul in Gameweek 4, it would take a brave man to leave him out, and we are anything but brave. He is joined by Alisson in goal for a Liverpool defensive double-up.
Man City (46%) were back to their dominant ways against Nottingham Forest on Wednesday night with the visitors just managing the one shot on target in the 90 minutes.
Aston Villa too looked abject in attack against Arsenal and were very fortunate to get their goal, accumulating just 0.36 xG on the night.
Joao Cancelo punished the sellers as he recorded his first goal of the season. He takes his spot in our lineup again this week.
Chelsea (44%) seem in defensive disarray just now, falling to a 2-1 defeat to Southampton on Tuesday night.
Luckily for them, West Ham are having problems of their own in attack, which may beg the question – “What happens when a resistible force meets a moveable object?”
The bookies seem to think it means a lack of goals, and with a few injuries returning, as well as the addition of Wesley Fofana, they expect Chelsea to get the clean sheet too.
Marc Cucurella hasn’t had the best start to life as a Chelsea player, but he’s still creating chances and taking up some very advanced positions. As a result, he takes the 5th spot in our defence this week.
Spurs (44%) were underwhelming in midweek as they limped to a 1-1 draw to London rivals West Ham. They play a Fulham side in full flow and will have to work hard to keep Mitrovic under wraps.
Spurs are a different beast at home, however, conceding the 2nd least xG at home so far this season (1.19).
With Perisic playing a full 90+ minutes against the Hammers on Wednesday, it’s reasonable to expect Ryan Sessegnon to get the nod at left-back this weekend and with one goal to his name already this season, the chance of a monster haul is always there.
For our bench this week, we round it out with Iversen (£3.9m) & Kongolo (£3.9m) because, even though they don’t start for their sides, their price allows us to put all our funds into our starting XI.
Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 6
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.