Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 6

The Egyptian king is dead; long live the king from the North!

A new perma-captain arises, as this week in defence, we stick to familiar faces and take a few punts up front. The bigger hitters remain in place, as reliable as ever, while an FPL veteran returns to the fold.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 6

PlayerGoal probabilityOddsTeamPosition
Erling Haaland61%1.63MCIFWD
Harry Kane53%1.89TOTFWD
Mohamed Salah49%2.04LIVMID
Ivan Toney48%2.1BREFWD
Darwin Nunez46%2.16LIVFWD
Julian Alvarez46%2.18MCIFWD
Diogo Jota43%2.3LIVMID
Raul Jimenez43%2.3WOLFWD
Heung-Min Son43%2.33TOTMID
Cristiano Ronaldo40%2.5MUNFWD
Alexander Isak38%2.6NEWFWD
Patrick Bamford38%2.6LEEFWD
Roberto Firmino38%2.65LIVFWD
Luis Diaz38%2.65LIVMID
Lyle Taylor37%2.7NFOFWD
Emmanuel Dennis37%2.7NFOFWD
Taiwo Awoniyi37%2.7NFOFWD
Jamie Vardy37%2.7LEIFWD
Gabriel Jesus37%2.7ARSFWD
Goncalo Guedes36%2.8WOLMID
Raheem Sterling36%2.8CHEMID
Sam Surridge36%2.8BOUFWD
Deniz Undav36%2.8BHAFWD
Danny Welbeck36%2.8BHAFWD
Armando Broja35%2.85CHEFWD
Kai Havertz34%2.95CHEFWD
Riyad Mahrez33%3.05MCIMID
Kevin De Bruyne33%3.05MCIMID
Hakim Ziyech32%3.1CHEMID
Yoane Wissa32%3.1BREMID
Aleksandar Mitrovic32%3.15FULFWD
Fabio Carvalho31%3.2LIVMID
Christian Pulisic31%3.2CHEMID
Brennan Johnson31%3.2NFOFWD
Odsonne Edouard30%3.3CRYFWD
Jean-Philippe Mateta30%3.3CRYFWD
Patson Daka30%3.3LEIFWD
Eddie Nketiah30%3.3ARSFWD
Dejan Kulusevski29%3.4TOTMID
Mason Mount29%3.4CHEMID
Kelechi Iheanacho29%3.4LEIFWD
Phil Foden29%3.45MCIMID
Bruno Fernandes29%3.45MUNMID
Che Adams29%3.5SOUFWD
Adam Armstrong29%3.5SOUFWD
Keane Lewis-Potter29%3.5BREMID
Hwang Hee-Chan28%3.6WOLMID
Sekou Mara28%3.6SOUFWD
Wilfried Zaha28%3.6CRYMID
Dominic Solanke28%3.6BOUFWD
Leandro Trossard28%3.6BHAMID
Alexis Mac Allister28%3.6BHAMID
Anthony Martial28%3.6MUNFWD
Bryan Mbeumo27%3.65BREFWD
Joe Gelhardt26%3.8LEEFWD
Kieffer Moore26%3.8BOUFWD
Gabriel Martinelli26%3.8ARSMID
Marcus Rashford26%3.9MUNMID
Ilkay Gundogan25%3.95MCIMID
Pedro Neto25%4WOLMID
Daniel Podence25%4WOLMID
Gianluca Scamacca25%4WHUFWD
Michail Antonio25%4WHUFWD
Ryan Christie25%4BOUMID
Enock Mwepu25%4BHAMID
Morgan Gibbs-White24%4.2NFOMID
Jesse Lingard24%4.2NFOMID
Bukayo Saka24%4.25ARSMID
Harvey Elliott23%4.3LIVMID
Malcolm Ebiowei23%4.4NEWMID
Mikkel Damsgaard23%4.4BREMID
Daniel James23%4.4LEEMID
Jack Grealish23%4.4MCIMID
Bernardo Silva23%4.4MCIMID
Emile Smith Rowe23%4.4ARSMID
Allan Saint-Maximin22%4.5NEWMID
Joe Willock22%4.6NEWMID
Maxwel Cornet22%4.6WHUMID
Ivan Perisic21%4.75TOTDEF
Neal Maupay21%4.8EVEFWD
Luis Sinisterra21%4.8LEEMID
James Maddison21%4.8LEIMID
Danny Ings20%4.9AVLFWD
Ollie Watkins20%4.9AVLFWD
Jadon Sancho20%4.9MUNMID
Ruben Neves20%5WOLMID
Mohamed Elyounoussi20%5SOUMID
Bruno Guimaraes20%5NEWFWD
Ryan Fraser20%5NEWFWD
Brenden Aaronson20%5LEEMID
Harvey Barnes20%5LEIMID
Pascal Gross20%5BHAMID
Martin Odegaard20%5.1ARSMID
Anthony Gordon19%5.4EVEMID
Anthony Elanga19%5.4MUNMID
Eberechi Eze18%5.5CRYMID
Michael Olise18%5.5CRYMID
Miguel Almiron18%5.5NEWMID
Jarrod Bowen18%5.5WHUMID
Jack Harrison18%5.5LEEMID
Elliot Anderson17%5.75NEWMID
Pablo Fornals17%6WHUMID
Lucas Paqueta17%6WHUMID
Said Benrahma17%6WHUMID
Christian Eriksen16%6.25MUNMID
Josh Dasilva16%6.4BREMID
Manuel Lanzini15%6.5WHUMID
Demarai Gray15%6.75EVEMID
Ryan Sessegnon15%6.75TOTDEF
Bobby De Cordova-Reid15%6.75FULMID
Reece James15%6.75CHEDEF
Philippe Coutinho14%7AVLMID
Leon Bailey14%7AVLMID
Emiliano Buendia13%7.5AVLMID
Virgil Van Dijk13%8LIVDEF
Trent Alexander-Arnold13%8LIVDEF
Tomas Soucek13%8WHUMID
Ben Chilwell12%8.5CHEDEF
Joao Cancelo11%9MCIDEF
Andrew Robertson10%10.5LIVDEF
John McGinn9%11AVLMID
Oleksandr Zinchenko8%12ARSDEF
Marc Cucurella8%13CHEDEF
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 6

Haaland (61%) is unstoppable at this moment in time as the Man City juggernaut gathers momentum.
Back-to-back hattricks have broken many a manager’s heart as rotation fears grow with every passing game. But, it seems Pep Roulette is the only thing that can stop the relentless force that is Erling Haaland.
This week he travels to an Aston Villa side under immense pressure. Gerrard’s men conceded chance after chance against Arsenal on Wednesday. If they defend similarly in Gameweek 6, I fear it may be a bloodbath.
Erling Haaland, for the sixth gameweek in a row, takes the captain’s armband for us. Has the City striker usurped Mo Salah as the King of FPL?

Speaking of Salah (49%), he managed to throw a lifeline to those who chose to captain him over Haaland in midweek with two assists and a couple of bonus points. Even still, Liverpool look far from convincing in attack. They play a dogged Everton team that will no doubt smell blood come Saturday at Goodison.
Having said that, Everton have conceded the 3rd most xG from open play in the league (8.10). Salah’s good recent record against Everton (3 goals, 1 assist in 4 games) makes him an easy inclusion in our team this week.

Riyad Mahrez (33%) also comes in for City. The Algerian winger managed an assist off the bench during the week and has been one of the biggest underperformers of his xG the last two gameweeks. However, the bookies are betting on this, meaning that goals are imminent.

Ivan Toney (48%) has had a decent start to the new season, bagging two goals and two assists in his first five games. He was also 6th of shots in the box, 5th for xGI and joint 3rd for Big Chances (level with Jesus and Kane). He plays Leeds at home this week, who have looked less than convincing in away games so far this season.

The last two names on the team sheet may surprise some, given their team’s slow start to the season. FPL veteran Raul Jimenez (43%) and new boy Goncalo Guedes (36%) are both included in our lineup this week.
Jimenez had 5 shots in the box and 1 big chance this week and really should have scored. If he keeps getting such high-quality opportunities, he will eventually tuck one away.

Filling out the bench are midfielders Andreas (13%), who grabbed another assist during the week, and Newcastle’s Jacob Murphy, who is an excellent enabler at £4.4m.

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Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 6

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City46%2.18
Nottingham Forest40%2.5
Man Utd24%4.2
Crystal Palace24%4.25
West Ham15%6.75
Aston Villa11%9.5
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 6

Liverpool (47%) had another ropey performance during the week as they relied on a very late goal to breach the Newcastle defence.
The bookies look to allay fears this week and counsel trust in the Red’s defence to steady the ship. They welcome a steadily improving Everton side in a challenging derby for Jurgen Klopp’s men.
After Alexander-Arnold’s 17-point-haul in Gameweek 4, it would take a brave man to leave him out, and we are anything but brave. He is joined by Alisson in goal for a Liverpool defensive double-up.

Man City (46%) were back to their dominant ways against Nottingham Forest on Wednesday night with the visitors just managing the one shot on target in the 90 minutes.
Aston Villa too looked abject in attack against Arsenal and were very fortunate to get their goal, accumulating just 0.36 xG on the night.
Joao Cancelo punished the sellers as he recorded his first goal of the season. He takes his spot in our lineup again this week.

Chelsea (44%) seem in defensive disarray just now, falling to a 2-1 defeat to Southampton on Tuesday night.
Luckily for them, West Ham are having problems of their own in attack, which may beg the question – “What happens when a resistible force meets a moveable object?”
The bookies seem to think it means a lack of goals, and with a few injuries returning, as well as the addition of Wesley Fofana, they expect Chelsea to get the clean sheet too.
Marc Cucurella hasn’t had the best start to life as a Chelsea player, but he’s still creating chances and taking up some very advanced positions. As a result, he takes the 5th spot in our defence this week.

Spurs (44%) were underwhelming in midweek as they limped to a 1-1 draw to London rivals West Ham. They play a Fulham side in full flow and will have to work hard to keep Mitrovic under wraps.
Spurs are a different beast at home, however, conceding the 2nd least xG at home so far this season (1.19).
With Perisic playing a full 90+ minutes against the Hammers on Wednesday, it’s reasonable to expect Ryan Sessegnon to get the nod at left-back this weekend and with one goal to his name already this season, the chance of a monster haul is always there.

For our bench this week, we round it out with Iversen (£3.9m) & Kongolo (£3.9m) because, even though they don’t start for their sides, their price allows us to put all our funds into our starting XI.

Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 6

Dream Team Gameweek 6
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Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.

You can follow him on Twitter here