Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 7

Even with talk of template breaking, the odds indicate patience may pay off this gameweek. With fixture swings imminent and wildcards at the ready, holding your nerve may be the really “bold move”.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
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Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 7

PlayerGoal probabilityOddsTeamPosition
Erling Haaland63%1.58MCIFWD
Mohamed Salah52%1.93LIVMID
Gabriel Jesus50%2.02ARSFWD
Darwin Nunez48%2.07LIVFWD
Diogo Jota46%2.18LIVFWD
Julian Alvarez45%2.2MCIFWD
Roberto Firmino41%2.43LIVFWD
Cristiano Ronaldo41%2.43MUNFWD
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang39%2.55CHEFWD
Patrick Bamford39%2.55LEEFWD
Jamie Vardy38%2.6LEIFWD
Luis Diaz38%2.6LIVMID
Aleksandar Mitrovic38%2.65FULFWD
Ivan Toney38%2.65BREFWD
Gabriel Martinelli36%2.8ARSMID
Deniz Undav35%2.85BHAFWD
Raheem Sterling34%2.9CHEMID
Fabio Carvalho34%2.95LIVMID
Joe Gelhardt34%2.95LEEFWD
Armando Broja33%3.05CHEFWD
Che Adams33%3.05SOUFWD
Patson Daka33%3.05LEIFWD
Danny Welbeck33%3.05BHAFWD
Wilfried Gnonto33%3.05LEEFWD
Bukayo Saka32%3.1ARSMID
Kai Havertz32%3.15CHEFWD
Sekou Mara32%3.15SOUFWD
Wilfried Zaha32%3.15CRYMID
Emile Smith Rowe31%3.2ARSMID
Kelechi Iheanacho31%3.25LEIFWD
Riyad Mahrez31%3.25MCIMID
Kevin De Bruyne31%3.25MCIMID
Gianluca Scamacca31%3.25WHUFWD
Alexander Isak31%3.25NEWFWD
Bruno Fernandes30%3.3MUNMID
Marcus Rashford30%3.3MUNMID
Luis Sinisterra30%3.3LEEMID
Danny Ings30%3.35AVLFWD
Ollie Watkins30%3.35AVLFWD
Christian Pulisic29%3.45CHEMID
Michail Antonio29%3.5WHUFWD
Harry Kane28%3.6TOTMID
Odsonne Edouard28%3.6CRYFWD
Mason Mount27%3.65CHEMID
James Ward-Prowse27%3.65SOUMID
Jack Harrison27%3.65LEEMID
Alexis Mac Allister27%3.7BHAMID
Dominic Solanke27%3.7BOUFWD
Phil Foden27%3.7MCIMID
Martin Odegaard27%3.7ARSMID
Jean-Philippe Mateta27%3.7CRYFWD
James Maddison27%3.75LEIMID
Jarrod Bowen27%3.75WHUMID
Adam Armstrong26%3.8SOUFWD
Taiwo Awoniyi26%3.8NFOFWD
Hakim Ziyech26%3.85CHEMID
Leandro Trossard26%3.85BHAMID
Ilkay Gundogan25%3.95MCIMID
Yoane Wissa25%4BREMID
Harvey Elliott24%4.1LIVMID
Brenden Aaronson24%4.1LEEMID
Emmanuel Dennis24%4.2NFOFWD
Brennan Johnson24%4.2NFOFWD
Harvey Barnes23%4.3LEIMID
Maxwel Cornet23%4.3WHUMID
Lucas Paqueta23%4.3WHUMID
Keane Lewis-Potter23%4.35BREMID
Mohamed Elyounoussi22%4.5SOUFWD
Jack Grealish22%4.5MCIMID
Bernardo Silva22%4.5MCIMID
Said Benrahma22%4.5WHUMID
Conor Gallagher22%4.6CHEMID
Joe Aribo22%4.6SOUMID
Kieffer Moore22%4.6BOUFWD
Jadon Sancho22%4.6MUNMID
Philippe Coutinho21%4.7AVLMID
Bryan Mbeumo21%4.8BREMID
Leon Bailey20%4.9AVLMID
Son Heung-Min20%4.9TOTMID
Allan Saint-Maximin20%4.9NEWMID
Enock Mwepu20%5.1BHAMID
Pascal Gross20%5.1BHAMID
Emiliano Buendia19%5.2AVLMID
Neal Maupay19%5.2EVEFWD
Youri Tielemans19%5.4LEIMID
Daniel James18%5.6FULMID
Mikkel Damsgaard18%5.6BREMID
Raul Jimenez17%5.75WOLFWD
Pablo Fornals17%5.75WHUMID
Bruno Guimaraes17%5.75NEWMID
Anthony Gordon17%5.8EVEMID
Jacob Ramsey17%6AVLMID
Philip Billing17%6BOUMID
Christian Eriksen17%6MUNMID
Tomas Soucek16%6.1WHUMID
Miguel Almiron16%6.1NEWMID
Goncalo Guedes15%6.75WOLMID
Hwang Hee-Chan15%6.75WOLMID
Dejan Kulusevski15%6.75TOTMID
Pedro Neto14%7WOLMID
Demarai Gray14%7EVEMID
Ruben Loftus-Cheek13%7.5CHEMID
Andreas Pereira13%7.5FULMID
Reece James13%7.5CHEDEF
Josh Dasilva13%7.5BREMID
John McGinn13%7.5AVLMID
Virgil Van Dijk13%7.5LIVDEF
Daniel Podence13%8WOLMID
Ryan Christie13%8BOUMID
Trent Alexander-Arnold12%8.5LIVDEF
Joao Cancelo11%9MCIDEF
Oleksandr Zinchenko11%9ARSDEF
Ivan Perisic11%9.5TOTDEF
Joe Willock11%9.5NEWMID
Kostas Tsimikas9%11LIVDEF
Kieran Trippier8%12.5NEWDEF
Ryan Sessegnon8%13TOTDEF
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 7

Death, taxes and Erling Haaland (67%) having the best odds to score in any given week. The City striker made it ten goals in six games at the weekend to continue his record-breaking start to the season.
Gameweek 7 provides a more challenging test, however, with Man City having their first “Top Six” clash of the campaign when they take on Spurs.
Antonio Conte’s men were outplayed at Stamford Bridge in Gameweek 2, and the bookies expect that if this game follows a similar pattern, Haaland will put them to the sword in a way Chelsea just couldn’t. So for the seventh week running, Haaland is our captain.

Many managers are questioning Salah’s place in their team. However, the bookies advise patience, at least for this week.
The lack of alternatives is one of the main arguments for keeping Salah. Another is the rather lacklustre form of Wolves. While Bruno Lage’s men did pick up their first win of the season in Gameweek 6, their fixtures have been kind, and even then, they have looked vulnerable.
Salah remains 2nd (behind De Bruyne) for expected goal involvement (xGI) among all midfielders, and with Man City and Spurs playing each other this week, we’re rolling the dice on Mo Salah yet again.

Wilfried Zaha (32%) leads the way for big chances involvements for midfielders after six games. The Ivorian winger remains the talisman in a rapidly improving Crystal Palace side. Only Kane (17) and Son (15) have scored more Premier League goals since January than Zaha (13).
This week he faces a resurgent Manchester United side, buoyed by 4 wins on the bounce. While many think this United team have turned a corner under Ten Hag, the bookies still need some convincing. Selhurst Park is a tough place to go; if anyone is going to bring Man United back to earth, it’s Zaha.

Aleksander Mitrovic (38%) continues to tick along. After finding the net against Spurs last weekend, the Serb now has 6 goals in 6 games, having played 3 of the “Big Six” already.
This week he takes on a Chelsea side, fresh from sacking Thomas Tuchel on Wednesday after a string of underwhelming performances.
Saturday might be too early for the so-called “new manager bounce” and the bookies expect Chelsea to be even more disorganised defensively when they go to Craven Cottage this gameweek.

Coming off a blank each in Gameweek 6, Gabriels Jesus (50%) and Martinelli (36%) return to our XI this week. Martinelli, in particular, was unlucky not to return against Man United as he saw his first-half strike chalked off by VAR.
They come up against an Everton side with the 5th highest expected goals conceded (xGC) of 7.1 this season.
After a disappointing result, the bookies expect Arsenal to bounce back and their two main men to be heavily involved.

Making up the bench this week is Andreas (13%), pick of the budget mids , as well as Chukwuemeka (£4.3) for his low price.

Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 7

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City42%2.38
Man Utd32%3.15
West Ham29%3.4
Aston Villa26%3.8
Crystal Palace22%4.5
Nottingham Forest17%5.75
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 7

Liverpool (53%) managed a clean sheet away at Everton in Gameweek 6, however, FPL managers were still left frustrated with Alexander-Arnold and Robertson returning just the 1 point a piece.As frustration grows, many FPL managers want them out to free up some funds, though this is not the week to do so.
Wolves have been toothless in attack thus far, with the joint lowest goal return in the league (3). With an unfortunate injury to their new striker, Kalajdzic, the bookies expect their poor form in front of goal to continue.
Once again we roll out with Alexander-Arnold as he has the highest ceiling of any of the Liverpool defenders. He’s joined once more by Alisson who returned a nice 8 points last weekend.

Arsenal (50%) are another team that has frustrated in terms of clean sheets. The Gunners are underperforming their xGC by over two goals with individual errors costing them at key moments.
This week they take on Everton, who were impressive in the Merseyside derby last gameweek. However, they remain a side much better at home than away, a trend that goes back to last season.
Oleksandr Zinchenko has by far the highest xGI of Arsenal defenders and with his return from injury last weekend, he goes straight into our lineup this week.

Surprisingly, Man City (44%) are the third most likely team to keep a clean sheet this week when they host their perennial bogey team, Tottenham Hotspur.
Spurs sit firmly in mid-table for xG away from home this season and the bookies expect this trend to continue. Still Pep Guardiola’s men will have a tough time keeping Tottenham’s triple threat in attack quiet. It’s also worth noting that Man City have conceded just 0.91 xG in home games thus far.
Bagging a couple of assists in the Champions League midweek, Joao Cancelo remains far and away the best Man City defensive asset. He takes his place among our starting XI for the seventh week running.

Making their well-deserved first appearance in our defensive lineup are Brighton (42%). Keeping three clean sheets in six, they sit 5th for xGC away from home this season, despite playing away in Old Trafford on the opening day.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth are bottom of the table for xG from open play in home games this year with just 0.91 from three games played.
Lewis Dunk represents brilliant value at just £4.6m. Pascal Groß’s set piece delivery combined with Dunk’s heading ability means the chance of a goal is always present.

Neco Williams (£4.1) got his first return of the season in Gameweek 6. He is 3rd amongst defenders in terms of xGI (behind Alexander- Arnold and James). Daniel Iversen (£3.9) takes the goalkeeper bench spot as his price allows us to squeeze every last drop out of the starting XI.

Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 7

FPL Captain Gameweek 7

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.

You can follow him on Twitter here