Even with talk of template breaking, the odds indicate patience may pay off this gameweek. With fixture swings imminent and wildcards at the ready, holding your nerve may be the really “bold move”.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 7
|Emile Smith Rowe||31%||3.2||ARS||MID|
|Kevin De Bruyne||31%||3.25||MCI||MID|
|Alexis Mac Allister||27%||3.7||BHA||MID|
|Virgil Van Dijk||13%||7.5||LIV||DEF|
Death, taxes and Erling Haaland (67%) having the best odds to score in any given week. The City striker made it ten goals in six games at the weekend to continue his record-breaking start to the season.
Gameweek 7 provides a more challenging test, however, with Man City having their first “Top Six” clash of the campaign when they take on Spurs.
Antonio Conte’s men were outplayed at Stamford Bridge in Gameweek 2, and the bookies expect that if this game follows a similar pattern, Haaland will put them to the sword in a way Chelsea just couldn’t. So for the seventh week running, Haaland is our captain.
Many managers are questioning Salah’s place in their team. However, the bookies advise patience, at least for this week.
The lack of alternatives is one of the main arguments for keeping Salah. Another is the rather lacklustre form of Wolves. While Bruno Lage’s men did pick up their first win of the season in Gameweek 6, their fixtures have been kind, and even then, they have looked vulnerable.
Salah remains 2nd (behind De Bruyne) for expected goal involvement (xGI) among all midfielders, and with Man City and Spurs playing each other this week, we’re rolling the dice on Mo Salah yet again.
Wilfried Zaha (32%) leads the way for big chances involvements for midfielders after six games. The Ivorian winger remains the talisman in a rapidly improving Crystal Palace side. Only Kane (17) and Son (15) have scored more Premier League goals since January than Zaha (13).
This week he faces a resurgent Manchester United side, buoyed by 4 wins on the bounce. While many think this United team have turned a corner under Ten Hag, the bookies still need some convincing. Selhurst Park is a tough place to go; if anyone is going to bring Man United back to earth, it’s Zaha.
Aleksander Mitrovic (38%) continues to tick along. After finding the net against Spurs last weekend, the Serb now has 6 goals in 6 games, having played 3 of the “Big Six” already.
This week he takes on a Chelsea side, fresh from sacking Thomas Tuchel on Wednesday after a string of underwhelming performances.
Saturday might be too early for the so-called “new manager bounce” and the bookies expect Chelsea to be even more disorganised defensively when they go to Craven Cottage this gameweek.
Coming off a blank each in Gameweek 6, Gabriels Jesus (50%) and Martinelli (36%) return to our XI this week. Martinelli, in particular, was unlucky not to return against Man United as he saw his first-half strike chalked off by VAR.
They come up against an Everton side with the 5th highest expected goals conceded (xGC) of 7.1 this season.
After a disappointing result, the bookies expect Arsenal to bounce back and their two main men to be heavily involved.
Making up the bench this week is Andreas (13%), pick of the budget mids , as well as Chukwuemeka (£4.3) for his low price.
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 7
|Team||Clean Sheet Probability||Odds|
Liverpool (53%) managed a clean sheet away at Everton in Gameweek 6, however, FPL managers were still left frustrated with Alexander-Arnold and Robertson returning just the 1 point a piece.As frustration grows, many FPL managers want them out to free up some funds, though this is not the week to do so.
Wolves have been toothless in attack thus far, with the joint lowest goal return in the league (3). With an unfortunate injury to their new striker, Kalajdzic, the bookies expect their poor form in front of goal to continue.
Once again we roll out with Alexander-Arnold as he has the highest ceiling of any of the Liverpool defenders. He’s joined once more by Alisson who returned a nice 8 points last weekend.
Arsenal (50%) are another team that has frustrated in terms of clean sheets. The Gunners are underperforming their xGC by over two goals with individual errors costing them at key moments.
This week they take on Everton, who were impressive in the Merseyside derby last gameweek. However, they remain a side much better at home than away, a trend that goes back to last season.
Oleksandr Zinchenko has by far the highest xGI of Arsenal defenders and with his return from injury last weekend, he goes straight into our lineup this week.
Surprisingly, Man City (44%) are the third most likely team to keep a clean sheet this week when they host their perennial bogey team, Tottenham Hotspur.
Spurs sit firmly in mid-table for xG away from home this season and the bookies expect this trend to continue. Still Pep Guardiola’s men will have a tough time keeping Tottenham’s triple threat in attack quiet. It’s also worth noting that Man City have conceded just 0.91 xG in home games thus far.
Bagging a couple of assists in the Champions League midweek, Joao Cancelo remains far and away the best Man City defensive asset. He takes his place among our starting XI for the seventh week running.
Making their well-deserved first appearance in our defensive lineup are Brighton (42%). Keeping three clean sheets in six, they sit 5th for xGC away from home this season, despite playing away in Old Trafford on the opening day.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth are bottom of the table for xG from open play in home games this year with just 0.91 from three games played.
Lewis Dunk represents brilliant value at just £4.6m. Pascal Groß’s set piece delivery combined with Dunk’s heading ability means the chance of a goal is always present.
Neco Williams (£4.1) got his first return of the season in Gameweek 6. He is 3rd amongst defenders in terms of xGI (behind Alexander- Arnold and James). Daniel Iversen (£3.9) takes the goalkeeper bench spot as his price allows us to squeeze every last drop out of the starting XI.
Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 7
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.