Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 8

As for many, last week was a tough week for the Bookies Advantage XI. Between hidden injuries (thank you Eddie Howe) and under-performance from favourites we scored a bang average 49 points.

This week is a very interesting week as last season’s top two play each other making other assets more viable, especially for captaincy. Some high upside differentials make our team this week as the bookies predict clean sheets to be hard to come by.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscorer odds gameweek 8

Son Heung-Min51%1.95TOTMID
Mohamed Salah48%2.08LIVMID
Erling Haaland47%2.15MCIFWD
Darwin Nunez46%2.17LIVFWD
Callum Wilson44%2.25NEWFWD
Carlos Vinicius43%2.3FULFWD
Evan Ferguson42%2.38BHAFWD
Marcus Rashford42%2.38MUNMID
Ollie Watkins39%2.55AVLFWD
Raheem Sterling39%2.55CHEMID
Raúl Jiménez39%2.55FULFWD
Rasmus Højlund38%2.63MUNFWD
Odsonne Edouard38%2.65CRYFWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin38%2.65EVEFWD
James Maddison38%2.65TOTMID
Nicolas Jackson36%2.75CHEFWD
Alexander Isak36%2.75NEWFWD
Bruno Fernandes36%2.8MUNMID
Luis Díaz33%3LIVMID
Sasa Kalajdzic32%3.1WOLFWD
Julian Alvarez32%3.1MCIFWD
Kaoru Mitoma31%3.2BHAMID
Armando Broja31%3.2CHEFWD
Ansu Fati31%3.25BHAMID
Dominic Solanke29%3.4BOUFWD
Bryan Mbeumo29%3.4BREMID
Moussa Diaby28%3.55AVLMID
Gabriel Jesus28%3.6ARSFWD
Bobby Reid28%3.6FULMID
Eddie Nketiah27%3.65ARSFWD
Bukayo Saka27%3.75ARSMID
João Pedro27%3.75BHAFWD
Anthony Martial27%3.75MUNFWD
Dejan Kulusevski26%3.8TOTMID
Yoane Wissa26%3.85BREFWD
Harry Wilson25%3.95FULMID
Jarrod Bowen25%3.95WHUMID
Lyle Foster25%4BURFWD
Carlton Morris25%4LUTFWD
Cameron Archer25%4SHUFWD
Danny Ings25%4WHUFWD
Phil Foden24%4.1MCIMID
Kieffer Moore23%4.3BOUFWD
Andreas Pereira23%4.4FULMID
Michail Antonio23%4.4WHUFWD
Leon Bailey22%4.5AVLMID
Miguel Almiron21%4.75NEWMID
Justin Kluivert21%4.8BOUMID
Gabriel Martinelli20%5ARSMID
Solly March20%5BHAMID
Jay Rodriguez20%5BURFWD
Mason Mount20%5MUNMID
Hee-Chan Hwang20%5WOLMID
Kai Havertz19%5.2ARSMID
Said Benrahma19%5.3WHUMID
Conor Gallagher19%5.4CHEMID
Neal Maupay18%5.5BREFWD
Elijah Adebayo18%5.5LUTFWD
Martin Odegaard18%5.6ARSMID
Pascal Gross18%5.6BHAMID
Leandro Trossard17%5.75ARSMID
Christian Eriksen17%5.75MUNMID
Jeremy Doku17%5.75MCIMID
William Osula17%5.8SHUFWD
Keane Lewis-Potter16%6.1BREMID
Philip Billing16%6.25BOUMID
Bernardo Silva16%6.25MCIMID
Jack Grealish16%6.25MCIMID
Bruno Guimaraes15%6.75NEWMID
Reece James14%7CHEDEF
Mykhaylo Mudryk14%7CHEMID
Elliot Anderson14%7NEWMID
Alex Mac Allister13%7.5LIVMID
Sandro Tonali9%11.5NEWMID
Trent Alexander-Arnold8%12.5LIVDEF
Virgil van Dijk8%13LIVDEF
Goalscorer odds gameweek 8

Son Heung-min (51%) vs Mohammed Salah (48%) as an alternative captaincy to Erling Haaland (47%) has been the question on everyone’s lips going into Gameweek 8 as the chasing pack look to gain an advantage on those ahead. While it’s always a risky strategy to back against the Norwegian Terminator, if you are going to take him on this weekend, the bookies slightly favour the South Korean over the Egyptian.

In comparing the two’s underlying data over the last four gameweeks we see that Son wins out in terms of non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) 2.66 vs 1.32, while Salah dominates in terms of expected assists 2.19 vs 0.56.

Salah has had more touches in the final third (99 vs 61) as well as more penalty area touches (34 vs 26), while Son has had a much better goal involvement percentage (75 vs 40) and has a much better minutes per attempt ratio, taking a shot every 19 minutes vs Salah’s shot every 31 minutes.

The pair are incredibly hard to split but by looking at their opponent’s defensive data we see where Son may have the edge as Brighton have conceded less shots, less shots on target, less big chances and less xGC when compared to Luton.

For this reason, the South Korean just edges out Salah for captaincy this week.

Erling Haaland (47%) still makes the XI however as leaving the City striker out altogether seems nothing short of madness as he continues to lead in nearly all attacking metrics this year and while Arsenal continue to look less robust defensively when compared to last year.

Even last year they still conceded seven goals in their two games against City last season with Haaland grabbing two goals and two assists over the course of the two games.

Darwin Nunez (46%) is also included for a Liverpool attacking double up. With Gakpo injured and Jota suspended, the Uruguayan looks assured of a starting place and with Brighton’s failure to keep a clean sheet so far this season Nunez should be afforded plenty of opportunities. Whether he’s capable of taking them is another question.

Evan Ferguson (42%) may be a surprise inclusion in the list but with Liverpool failing to keep an away clean sheet so far this season it may look more understandable. Add to this the fact Brighton have scored eight goals in their last three games against Liverpool and the young Irishman looks like an interesting punt ahead of Gameweek 8.

Marcus Rashford (42%) takes up the last place on our starting attackers. Despite poor form in recent weeks the Bookies continue to back the mercurial winger. No attacking returns in his last three games will give managers itchy fingers but an xGI of 1.36 in that time suggests he’s been slightly unlucky.

His opponents this week Brentford have been in poor form of late, especially defensively, conceding seven in their last four. He’s worth rolling the dice on again this week.

On the bench for us this week are Douglas Luiz, as well as Marvelous Nakamba.

Clean sheet odds Gameweek 8

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Aston Villa33%3
Crystal Palace42%2.4
Man City29%3.4
Man Utd39%2.55
Nottingham Forest30%3.35
Sheffield Utd19%5.25
West Ham20%4.9
Clean sheet odds gameweek 8

Fulham (44%) sit top of the rankings for clean sheets ahead of Gameweek 8 as Bernd Leno continues his stint as the highest scoring goalkeeper so far this season.

It’s somewhat paradoxical as their underlying defensive data is poor but often that’s what makes the German keeper such a good pick. Fulham concede a lot of chances but Leno’s ability at shot stopping allows him to score highly.

This week, their odds are reflective of their opposition as they take on last place Sheffield United. Heckingbottom’s side sit rock bottom for goals, shots, shots on target and xG.

Bernd Leno is an easy choice for us in goal this week, and he is joined by team mate Timothy Castagne who has decent FPL pedigree.

Spurs (42%) sit second in the stakes for clean sheets having kept just two in their first seven so far this season, albeit, with tough fixtures.

This week they travel to Luton Town, who sit firmly bottom half of the table for goals (16th), attempts (12th), big chances (13th) and xG (13th).

Spurs defensive data is nothing too impressive though it is worth noting they have played Man United, Liverpool and Arsenal in their first seven

Pedro Porro is our choice in Spurs defence this week as he has the highest xGI of all the Spurs defenders and loves to get forward especially in games like these.

Chelsea (40%) may be finding their defensive groove as they kept their 3rd clean sheet of the season last weekend, running out 2-0 winners away to Fulham.

Only six goals conceded (3rd) whilst sitting fourth for xGC (7.46) may be somewhat deceptive as they have had a kind run of fixtures so far but with Burnley at home this week, Chelsea defenders look a decent hold for one more week.

Six goals in seven games, with a xG of 5.82 shows how Burnley have struggled to create at this level and may continue to struggle in a tough away game this weekend.

Crystal Palace (39%) are another one of the five teams on three clean sheets as they managed an impressive away win against Manchester United last week. Roy Hodgson has got Palace back to their old reliable defensive selves again.

Joint fourth for goals conceded (7) as well as third for shots on target conceded makes the Eagles a formidable defensive unit who this week hope to hold out Nottingham Forest looking better this season continue to have poor underlying attacking data away from home.

Joachim Andersen is the top scoring defender in FPL so far this season with two goals to his name. He gets the nod in our XI this week, On the bench for us this week is Matt Turner (£4.0m) who still looks the best sub keeper to own as well as Issa Kabore (£4.0m)

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here