FPL is back! (mostly). After postponements last week, we return to action ahead of Gameweek 8. It’s a partial blank gameweek, with plenty of wildcards being triggered. While long-term planning is important, maximising short-term gains remains the priority.
Here are the bookies’ picks for Gameweek 8.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 8
| Player | Goal probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 63% | 1.58 | MCI | FWD |
| Harry Kane | 54% | 1.85 | TOT | FWD |
| Callum Wilson | 49% | 2.06 | NEW | FWD |
| Alexander Isak | 48% | 2.1 | NEW | FWD |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | 46% | 2.16 | FUL | FWD |
| Chris Wood | 45% | 2.2 | NEW | FWD |
| Gabriel Jesus | 45% | 2.2 | ARS | FWD |
| Julian Alvarez | 43% | 2.33 | MCI | FWD |
| Son Heung-Min | 41% | 2.43 | TOT | MID |
| Richarlison | 39% | 2.55 | TOT | FWD |
| Danny Ings | 38% | 2.6 | AVL | FWD |
| Ollie Watkins | 38% | 2.6 | AVL | FWD |
| Eddie Nketiah | 38% | 2.6 | ARS | FWD |
| Philippe Coutinho | 37% | 2.7 | AVL | MID |
| Ivan Toney | 37% | 2.7 | BRE | FWD |
| Bukayo Saka | 37% | 2.7 | ARS | MID |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 36% | 2.8 | NFO | FWD |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | 34% | 2.9 | NFO | FWD |
| Emmanuel Dennis | 34% | 2.9 | NFO | FWD |
| Sam Surridge | 33% | 3 | NFO | FWD |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 33% | 3 | ARS | MID |
| Carlos Vinicius | 32% | 3.1 | FUL | FWD |
| Gianluca Scamacca | 32% | 3.1 | WHU | FWD |
| Michail Antonio | 32% | 3.1 | WHU | FWD |
| Riyad Mahrez | 31% | 3.25 | MCI | MID |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 31% | 3.25 | MCI | MID |
| Che Adams | 30% | 3.3 | SOU | FWD |
| Adam Armstrong | 30% | 3.3 | SOU | FWD |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 30% | 3.3 | TOT | MID |
| Allan Saint-Maximin | 29% | 3.4 | NEW | MID |
| Neal Maupay | 29% | 3.4 | EVE | FWD |
| Anthony Gordon | 29% | 3.4 | EVE | MID |
| Brennan Johnson | 29% | 3.5 | NFO | FWD |
| Maxwel Cornet | 29% | 3.5 | WHU | MID |
| Leon Bailey | 28% | 3.6 | AVL | MID |
| Joe Willock | 28% | 3.6 | NEW | MID |
| Phil Foden | 27% | 3.7 | MCI | MID |
| Jamie Vardy | 27% | 3.7 | LEI | FWD |
| Ryan Fraser | 26% | 3.8 | NEW | MID |
| Elliot Anderson | 26% | 3.8 | NEW | MID |
| Joelinton | 26% | 3.8 | NEW | MID |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 26% | 3.8 | NEW | MID |
| Daniel James | 25% | 4 | FUL | MID |
| Ilkay Gundogan | 25% | 4 | MCI | MID |
| Jack Grealish | 25% | 4 | MCI | MID |
| Cole Palmer | 25% | 4 | MCI | MID |
| Martin Odegaard | 25% | 4 | ARS | MID |
| Yoane Wissa | 25% | 4 | BRE | MID |
| Dominic Solanke | 24% | 4.2 | BOU | FWD |
| Patson Daka | 24% | 4.2 | LEI | FWD |
| Kelechi Iheanacho | 24% | 4.2 | LEI | FWD |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | 24% | 4.2 | BRE | MID |
| Andreas Pereira | 23% | 4.4 | FUL | MID |
| Jarrod Bowen | 23% | 4.4 | WHU | MID |
| Bernardo Silva | 22% | 4.5 | MCI | MID |
| Diego Costa | 22% | 4.6 | WOL | FWD |
| Lucas Paqueta | 22% | 4.6 | WHU | MID |
| Ivan Perisic | 20% | 5 | TOT | DEF |
| Raul Jimenez | 19% | 5.2 | WOL | FWD |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 18% | 5.5 | BRE | FWD |
| Ryan Sessegnon | 15% | 6.5 | TOT | DEF |
| Joao Cancelo | 11% | 9 | MCI | DEF |
Turns out the only way to stop Erling Haaland (63%) is for the Monarch of the UK to pass away, thus postponing all fixtures for the gameweek. He returned to action in midweek, scoring an unbelievable goal against his former side Dortmund as if we needed further reminders as to what he’s capable of.
This weekend he takes on a Wolves side who recorded their first win of the season in Gameweek 6 at home to Southampton. However, this week will be a different test for Bruno Lage’s men.
Man City are top for all attacking metrics in the league, and the bookies heavily fancy them here. Of course, it goes without saying that Haaland is our captain for the 8th week in a row.
With value options being favoured this week, a threemium set-up is entirely possible. Harry Kane (54%) and Heung-Min Son (41%) will be hoping to get Spurs back to winning ways after a disappointing result away in the Champions League during the week.
They play Leicester, who have conceded 11 goals in just 3 away games. Spurs, by contrast, have good home form winning all three of their games at home.
Son has had a slow start to the season, but things can change quickly in football. The Foxes are the perfect side for him to gain a bit of confidence. Kane has 5 goals and 1 assist in 6 league games. Both take place in our XI this week.
Alexander Isak (48%) made a quick start to life in the Premier League, scoring on his debut in Gameweek 5. As the focal point in a dynamic Newcastle attack, he should be in for plenty more.
This week he takes on Bournemouth at home. It’s a long way up north for the Cherries, and we expect them to wilt before the St. James Park crowd. So Isak takes the final striker spot in our lineup.
Martinelli (33%) was unlucky to see his goal against Man United chalked off in Gameweek 6. However, the young Brazilian has proven to be the mid-priced midfielder of choice, with his ownership now hitting 47.1%. Arsenal go to Brentford this week, the scene of their opening day humiliation last season. The Bees have conceded the second most shots on target so far (35), and with the Gunners out for revenge, we’re backing Martinelli to be amongst the goals.
Anthony Gordon (29%) has been the bright spark in an otherwise dull Everton attack. The local lad has found the net twice in his last three games and looked dangerous against Liverpool in Gameweek 6. This week he takes on a West Ham side who have only kept 1 clean sheet thus far. With midweek duties, Moyes’ men could be caught napping come Sunday lunchtime.
Bailey (28%) takes the first spot on the bench after an impressive display against Man City, and Andreas (23%) joins him as the £4.5m midfielder of choice.
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 8
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Newcastle | 49% | 2.05 |
| Man City | 48% | 2.07 |
| Tottenham | 40% | 2.48 |
| Arsenal | 34% | 2.95 |
| Aston Villa | 33% | 3 |
| West Ham | 32% | 3.1 |
| Everton | 28% | 3.55 |
| Fulham | 27% | 3.7 |
| Nottingham Forest | 25% | 3.95 |
| Southampton | 21% | 4.7 |
| Brentford | 17% | 5.8 |
| Bournemouth | 14% | 7 |
| Leicester | 13% | 8 |
| Wolves | 11% | 9.5 |
Newcastle (49%) top the billing for clean sheets this weekend when they take on a Bournemouth side who will be buoyed by a defiant display at Nottingham Forest last time out where they came from 2-0 down at halftime to win 2-3.
Newcastle’s defence is made of sterner stuff; however, the Magpies have kept two clean sheets from three home games this season (Man City being the only exception). By contrast, Bournemouth are bottom of the table for expected goals (xG), and by some distance as well.
Nick Pope is the top-scoring keeper in FPL going into Gameweek 8, despite some tricky fixtures. His pedigree in terms of fantasy football cannot be questioned, and he takes his place between the posts for us this week. He is joined by teammate Trippier who has points potential at both ends of the pitch.
Manchester City (48%) have frustrated FPL managers in terms of clean sheets so far this season though are desperately unlucky to have conceded as many as they have, conceding 6 goals from just 11 shots on target.
This week they play a Wolves team struggling for goals. Bruno Lage’s men sit joint bottom for goals scored after 6 games (3). With an unfortunate injury to new striker Kaladjzic it’s unlikely to improve soon.
Another defensive double up for us sees Cancelo and Dias in our starting XI. The pair are the most secure route into the Man City defence.
Lastly, Spurs (40%), while playing the ugliest brand of football known to man, are still attractive from an FPL point of view. Conte’s counter-attacking style has led Spurs to be second lowest in both goals conceded, and shots on target conceded.
This week they host Leicester who look in all sorts of trouble, with many calling for Brendan Rodgers’ job. The Foxes sit 3rd from the bottom for expected goals and are expected to struggle away against a suffocating Spurs side.
Ryan Sessegnon has 1 goal and 1 assist from 3 starts in the league and is expected to start after Perisic played 90 minutes in midweek away in Portugal. He takes the final defensive spot in our team this week.
Neco Williams (25%) got his first assist in Gameweek 6. At £4.1 he is still the budget defender of choice.
Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 8
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.