Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 8

FPL is back! (mostly). After postponements last week, we return to action ahead of Gameweek 8. It’s a partial blank gameweek, with plenty of wildcards being triggered. While long-term planning is important, maximising short-term gains remains the priority.

Here are the bookies’ picks for Gameweek 8.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
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Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 8

PlayerGoal probabilityOddsTeamPosition
Erling Haaland63%1.58MCIFWD
Harry Kane54%1.85TOTFWD
Callum Wilson49%2.06NEWFWD
Alexander Isak48%2.1NEWFWD
Aleksandar Mitrovic46%2.16FULFWD
Chris Wood45%2.2NEWFWD
Gabriel Jesus45%2.2ARSFWD
Julian Alvarez43%2.33MCIFWD
Son Heung-Min41%2.43TOTMID
Danny Ings38%2.6AVLFWD
Ollie Watkins38%2.6AVLFWD
Eddie Nketiah38%2.6ARSFWD
Philippe Coutinho37%2.7AVLMID
Ivan Toney37%2.7BREFWD
Bukayo Saka37%2.7ARSMID
Dominic Calvert-Lewin36%2.8NFOFWD
Taiwo Awoniyi34%2.9NFOFWD
Emmanuel Dennis34%2.9NFOFWD
Sam Surridge33%3NFOFWD
Gabriel Martinelli33%3ARSMID
Carlos Vinicius32%3.1FULFWD
Gianluca Scamacca32%3.1WHUFWD
Michail Antonio32%3.1WHUFWD
Riyad Mahrez31%3.25MCIMID
Kevin De Bruyne31%3.25MCIMID
Che Adams30%3.3SOUFWD
Adam Armstrong30%3.3SOUFWD
Dejan Kulusevski30%3.3TOTMID
Allan Saint-Maximin29%3.4NEWMID
Neal Maupay29%3.4EVEFWD
Anthony Gordon29%3.4EVEMID
Brennan Johnson29%3.5NFOFWD
Maxwel Cornet29%3.5WHUMID
Leon Bailey28%3.6AVLMID
Joe Willock28%3.6NEWMID
Phil Foden27%3.7MCIMID
Jamie Vardy27%3.7LEIFWD
Ryan Fraser26%3.8NEWMID
Elliot Anderson26%3.8NEWMID
Bruno Guimaraes26%3.8NEWMID
Daniel James25%4FULMID
Ilkay Gundogan25%4MCIMID
Jack Grealish25%4MCIMID
Cole Palmer25%4MCIMID
Martin Odegaard25%4ARSMID
Yoane Wissa25%4BREMID
Dominic Solanke24%4.2BOUFWD
Patson Daka24%4.2LEIFWD
Kelechi Iheanacho24%4.2LEIFWD
Keane Lewis-Potter24%4.2BREMID
Andreas Pereira23%4.4FULMID
Jarrod Bowen23%4.4WHUMID
Bernardo Silva22%4.5MCIMID
Diego Costa22%4.6WOLFWD
Lucas Paqueta22%4.6WHUMID
Ivan Perisic20%5TOTDEF
Raul Jimenez19%5.2WOLFWD
Bryan Mbeumo18%5.5BREFWD
Ryan Sessegnon15%6.5TOTDEF
Joao Cancelo11%9MCIDEF
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 8

Turns out the only way to stop Erling Haaland (63%) is for the Monarch of the UK to pass away, thus postponing all fixtures for the gameweek. He returned to action in midweek, scoring an unbelievable goal against his former side Dortmund as if we needed further reminders as to what he’s capable of.
This weekend he takes on a Wolves side who recorded their first win of the season in Gameweek 6 at home to Southampton. However, this week will be a different test for Bruno Lage’s men.
Man City are top for all attacking metrics in the league, and the bookies heavily fancy them here. Of course, it goes without saying that Haaland is our captain for the 8th week in a row.

With value options being favoured this week, a threemium set-up is entirely possible. Harry Kane (54%) and Heung-Min Son (41%) will be hoping to get Spurs back to winning ways after a disappointing result away in the Champions League during the week.
They play Leicester, who have conceded 11 goals in just 3 away games. Spurs, by contrast, have good home form winning all three of their games at home.
Son has had a slow start to the season, but things can change quickly in football. The Foxes are the perfect side for him to gain a bit of confidence. Kane has 5 goals and 1 assist in 6 league games. Both take place in our XI this week.

Alexander Isak (48%) made a quick start to life in the Premier League, scoring on his debut in Gameweek 5. As the focal point in a dynamic Newcastle attack, he should be in for plenty more.
This week he takes on Bournemouth at home. It’s a long way up north for the Cherries, and we expect them to wilt before the St. James Park crowd. So Isak takes the final striker spot in our lineup.

Martinelli (33%) was unlucky to see his goal against Man United chalked off in Gameweek 6. However, the young Brazilian has proven to be the mid-priced midfielder of choice, with his ownership now hitting 47.1%. Arsenal go to Brentford this week, the scene of their opening day humiliation last season. The Bees have conceded the second most shots on target so far (35), and with the Gunners out for revenge, we’re backing Martinelli to be amongst the goals.

Anthony Gordon (29%) has been the bright spark in an otherwise dull Everton attack. The local lad has found the net twice in his last three games and looked dangerous against Liverpool in Gameweek 6. This week he takes on a West Ham side who have only kept 1 clean sheet thus far. With midweek duties, Moyes’ men could be caught napping come Sunday lunchtime.

Bailey (28%) takes the first spot on the bench after an impressive display against Man City, and Andreas (23%) joins him as the £4.5m midfielder of choice.

Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 8

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City48%2.07
Aston Villa33%3
West Ham32%3.1
Nottingham Forest25%3.95
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 8

Newcastle (49%) top the billing for clean sheets this weekend when they take on a Bournemouth side who will be buoyed by a defiant display at Nottingham Forest last time out where they came from 2-0 down at halftime to win 2-3.
Newcastle’s defence is made of sterner stuff; however, the Magpies have kept two clean sheets from three home games this season (Man City being the only exception). By contrast, Bournemouth are bottom of the table for expected goals (xG), and by some distance as well.
Nick Pope is the top-scoring keeper in FPL going into Gameweek 8, despite some tricky fixtures. His pedigree in terms of fantasy football cannot be questioned, and he takes his place between the posts for us this week. He is joined by teammate Trippier who has points potential at both ends of the pitch.
Manchester City (48%) have frustrated FPL managers in terms of clean sheets so far this season though are desperately unlucky to have conceded as many as they have, conceding 6 goals from just 11 shots on target.
This week they play a Wolves team struggling for goals. Bruno Lage’s men sit joint bottom for goals scored after 6 games (3). With an unfortunate injury to new striker Kaladjzic it’s unlikely to improve soon.
Another defensive double up for us sees Cancelo and Dias in our starting XI. The pair are the most secure route into the Man City defence.

Lastly, Spurs (40%), while playing the ugliest brand of football known to man, are still attractive from an FPL point of view. Conte’s counter-attacking style has led Spurs to be second lowest in both goals conceded, and shots on target conceded.
This week they host Leicester who look in all sorts of trouble, with many calling for Brendan Rodgers’ job. The Foxes sit 3rd from the bottom for expected goals and are expected to struggle away against a suffocating Spurs side.
Ryan Sessegnon has 1 goal and 1 assist from 3 starts in the league and is expected to start after Perisic played 90 minutes in midweek away in Portugal. He takes the final defensive spot in our team this week.

Neco Williams (25%) got his first assist in Gameweek 6. At £4.1 he is still the budget defender of choice.

Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 8

Goalscorer odds gameweek 8
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Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.

You can follow him on Twitter here