FPL returns after the second international break of the season with a few juicy fixtures that look ripe for the picking.
This weekend the Bookies Advantage XI is packed with heavy hitters from the Big Six sides, however, injuries and rotation means there’s plenty of space for low ownership players.
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Goalscorer odds Gameweek 9
| Player | Probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 67% | 1.5 | MCI | FWD |
| Mohamed Salah | 53% | 1.89 | LIV | MID |
| Darwin Nunez | 50% | 2.02 | LIV | FWD |
| Son Heung-Min | 49% | 2.04 | TOT | MID |
| Callum Wilson | 49% | 2.05 | NEW | FWD |
| Ollie Watkins | 48% | 2.08 | AVL | FWD |
| Rasmus Højlund | 48% | 2.08 | MUN | FWD |
| Marcus Rashford | 48% | 2.1 | MUN | MID |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 46% | 2.18 | BRE | MID |
| Julian Alvarez | 43% | 2.32 | MCI | FWD |
| Diego Jota | 40% | 2.5 | LIV | MID |
| Alexander Isak | 40% | 2.5 | NEW | FWD |
| Richarlison | 40% | 2.5 | TOT | FWD |
| James Maddison | 38% | 2.65 | TOT | MID |
| Gabriel Jesus | 37% | 2.7 | ARS | FWD |
| Dominic Solanke | 37% | 2.7 | BOU | FWD |
| Luis Díaz | 37% | 2.7 | LIV | MID |
| Bruno Fernandes | 36% | 2.75 | MUN | MID |
| Phil Foden | 36% | 2.8 | MCI | MID |
| Eddie Nketiah | 33% | 3.05 | ARS | FWD |
| Carlos Vinicius | 33% | 3.05 | FUL | FWD |
| Moussa Diaby | 32% | 3.1 | AVL | MID |
| Anthony Martial | 32% | 3.1 | MUN | FWD |
| Sasa Kalajdzic | 31% | 3.2 | WOL | FWD |
| Kieffer Moore | 31% | 3.25 | BOU | FWD |
| Neal Maupay | 30% | 3.3 | BRE | FWD |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | 29% | 3.4 | NFO | FWD |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 29% | 3.45 | EVE | FWD |
| Bukayo Saka | 28% | 3.6 | ARS | MID |
| Cameron Archer | 28% | 3.6 | SHU | FWD |
| Raheem Sterling | 27% | 3.65 | CHE | MID |
| Carlton Morris | 27% | 3.65 | LUT | FWD |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | 27% | 3.7 | BRE | MID |
| Nicolas Jackson | 27% | 3.7 | CHE | FWD |
| Jeremy Doku | 27% | 3.7 | MCI | MID |
| Miguel Almiron | 27% | 3.75 | NEW | MID |
| Hee-Chan Hwang | 27% | 3.75 | WOL | MID |
| Mason Mount | 26% | 3.85 | MUN | MID |
| Dejan Kulusevski | 26% | 3.85 | TOT | MID |
| Danny Ings | 26% | 3.9 | WHU | FWD |
| Lyle Foster | 25% | 3.95 | BUR | FWD |
| Antony | 25% | 3.95 | MUN | MID |
| Evan Ferguson | 25% | 4 | BHA | FWD |
| Jarrod Bowen | 25% | 4 | WHU | MID |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 24% | 4.1 | ARS | MID |
| Yoane Wissa | 24% | 4.1 | BRE | FWD |
| Odsonne Edouard | 24% | 4.1 | CRY | FWD |
| Arnaout Danjuma | 24% | 4.1 | EVE | MID |
| Raúl Jiménez | 24% | 4.1 | FUL | FWD |
| Bernardo Silva | 24% | 4.1 | MCI | MID |
| Armando Broja | 24% | 4.2 | CHE | FWD |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 24% | 4.2 | CRY | FWD |
| Leon Bailey | 24% | 4.25 | AVL | MID |
| Martin Odegaard | 23% | 4.35 | ARS | MID |
| Leandro Trossard | 23% | 4.4 | ARS | MID |
| Christian Eriksen | 23% | 4.4 | MUN | MID |
| Michail Antonio | 21% | 4.75 | WHU | FWD |
| Kaoru Mitoma | 21% | 4.8 | BHA | MID |
| Ansu Fati | 20% | 4.9 | BHA | MID |
| Jay Rodriguez | 20% | 4.9 | BUR | FWD |
| William Osula | 20% | 4.9 | SHU | FWD |
| Kai Havertz | 19% | 5.2 | ARS | MID |
| Elijah Adebayo | 18% | 5.5 | LUT | FWD |
| Jack Grealish | 18% | 5.5 | MCI | MID |
| Benson | 18% | 5.6 | BUR | MID |
| Bobby Reid | 18% | 5.6 | FUL | MID |
| Harry Wilson | 15% | 6.5 | FUL | MID |
| Rodri | 15% | 6.5 | MCI | MID |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 15% | 6.5 | NEW | MID |
| Andreas Pereira | 14% | 7 | FUL | MID |
| Conor Gallagher | 13% | 7.5 | CHE | MID |
| Solly March | 13% | 8 | BHA | MID |
| Enzo | 12% | 8.5 | CHE | MID |
| Jordan Ayew | 10% | 10 | CRY | MID |
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Erling Haaland (67%) is in something of a drought by his standards. No goals in his last two Premier League games and last four in all competitions has led to the Norwegian being the most transferred out forward going into Gameweek 9.
However, the Bookies understand that form is temporary but class is permanent, and his opponents this weekend, Brighton, sit 17th for goals conceded (16), 13th for both big chances conceded (21) as well as expected goals conceded (14.10)
He still ranks as the best captaincy option this gameweek.
Julian Alvarez (43%) joins his striker partner in a City attacking double up. The Argentinian has eight returns in eight games so far this season and is still a bargain at just £7.0m.
Mohammed Salah (53%) looks a popular alternative captaincy option this gameweek after his impressive 15 point haul away at Brighton in Gameweek 8. The Egyptian King is now the joint top points scorer in all of FPL with five goals and four assists.
Merseyside derbies which can often be cagey affairs, though the Reds have gotten the better of their Blue neighbours in three of their last four meetings. Despite Everton’s poor start in terms of points, their underlying data is not bad, ranking mid to top half of the table in most defensive metrics.
Still, Salah should be too strong for Sean Dyche’s side, and we expect the Reds to run rampant at Anfield this weekend.
Son Heung-min (49%) disappointed those who captained him in Gameweek 8 but an xGI of 0.71 in that game suggests he may have been unlucky not to return.
This week, he takes on Fulham who sit 16th for expected goals conceded (xGC) away from home so far this season.
The South Korean, on the other hand, is second for both big chances (4) and shots on target (7), as well as third for expected goal involvement (xGI).
Marcus Rashford (48%) is another frustrating asset right now but the bookies’ odds suggest he’s worth one more roll of the dice.
Sheffield United sit rock bottom for both goals and expected goals conceded, letting in two or more goals in seven of their eight games played so far this season.
Over the last four gameweeks Rashford ranks top three for penalty area touches,shots and shots in the box, though his xG numbers have dropped, he’s worth holding onto this gameweek.
Due to uncertainty of Darwin’s minutes as well as the Newcastle striker dilemma, Ollie Watkins (42%) takes up the last place in the XI, with the Aston Villa striker tied for top spot with Salah on points.
West Ham tend to concede a lot of chances centrally, with Alexander Isak scoring a brace against them in Gameweek 8.
Watkins is a man in form for a team playing with confidence, he makes an easy inclusion in our team this week.
On the bench for us in attack this week is Elliot Anderson (£4.4m) who may get the nod this week with Sandro Tonali expected to miss out, as well as Marvelous Nakamba (£4.4m) who makes a nice cheap enabler.
Clean Sheet odds Gameweek 9
Newcastle United (48%) have conceded the fewest big chances in the league and kept three clean sheets in their last four games, with Sven Botman expected to be back for the Magpies this weekend, the bookies fancy their odds of adding to that run.
They welcome a Crystal Palace side who look blunt in attack, especially with talisman Eberchi Eze expected to miss out again. The Eagles have scored just two goals in their last four matches, creating an xG of just 3.18, the worst in the league over that period.
Kieran Trippier (£6.9m) needs no more introduction as he looks back to his last season best, he’s joined by Dan Burn (£4.7m) who is the cheapest route in the Newcastle defence.
Nottingham Forest (47%) have conceded the least amount of xG conceded of any team in games played at home so far this season (2.72) and will be confident of keeping their second home clean sheet when they welcome Luton Town to the City Ground in Gameweek 9.
Conversely, the Hatters sit 18th for xG created away from home. With no goals from open play in any of their three away matches, it’s not hard to see why Forest are rated so highly for a clean sheet this week.
Matt Turner (£4.1m) makes for a great cheap option between the sticks.
Liverpool (42%) have only kept one clean sheet so far this season, however, have only conceded more than one goal on two occasions with one of those coming while being reduced to nine men.
At home, they look a lot better defensively, and that must be why the bookies fancy them. They are joint second for goals conceded at home this season (2) as well as third for xG conceded with (3.04)
Everton have scored just two goals from open play away from home and have suffered from some woeful finishing.
Kostas Tsmiikas (£4.4m) seems a shrewd choice this week, with Andy Robertson ruled out for 10 weeks. The Greek left-back is very attacking and could be a massive differential at just 0.6% owned.
Manchester United (42%) kept a clean sheet in their last away game, beating Burnley in a brutally boring 0-1. They wouldn’t mind the same boring results this weekend then they travel to the worst attacking team statistically in the league.
Sheffield United sit bottom for big chances (7), shots (71), shots in the box (50) and xG (6.11) over the first eight games of the season and show little signs of improvement.
Diogo Dalot seems like the best pick here. Will the full back injury crisis at Man United, he seems assured of his spot and provides some attacking impetus as compared to his centre backs.
On the bench for us in defence this weekend is Thomas Strakosha (£3.9) as well as Issa Kabore who continues to look like the best £4.0m defensive option.
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Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here