Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 9

A Leicester triple-up shows that the bookies clearly favour fixture over form as we enter a period where many of the “Big Six” play one another. A mixture of new and exciting, together with some old reliables, makes for an exciting Bookies Advantage XI this week.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 9

PlayerGoal probabilityOddsTeamPosition
Erling Haaland65%1.55MCIFWD
Jamie Vardy56%1.8LEIFWD
Patson Daka50%2LEIFWD
Mohamed Salah48%2.08LIVMID
Kelechi Iheanacho48%2.1LEIFWD
Julian Alvarez47%2.15MCIFWD
Darwin Nunez45%2.23LIVFWD
Aleksandar Mitrovic43%2.3FULFWD
Diogo Jota43%2.3LIVMID
Patrick Bamford43%2.3LEEFWD
Ivan Toney40%2.5BREFWD
Gabriel Jesus39%2.55ARSFWD
Roberto Firmino39%2.55LIVFWD
Callum Wilson38%2.6NEWFWD
Luis Diaz38%2.65LIVMID
Alexander Isak37%2.7NEWFWD
Harry Kane36%2.8TOTFWD
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang36%2.8CHEFWD
Michail Antonio36%2.8WHUFWD
James Maddison36%2.8LEIMID
Gianluca Scamacca34%2.9WHUFWD
Ayoze Perez34%2.9LEIMID
Harvey Barnes34%2.9LEIMID
Eddie Nketiah33%3ARSFWD
Maxwel Cornet33%3WHUMID
Danny Ings33%3AVLFWD
Ollie Watkins33%3AVLFWD
Che Adams32%3.1SOUFWD
Sekou Mara32%3.1SOUFWD
Dominic Solanke32%3.15BOUFWD
Fabio Carvalho32%3.15LIVMID
Riyad Mahrez32%3.15MCIMID
Kevin De Bruyne32%3.15MCIMID
Armando Broja31%3.2CHEFWD
Raheem Sterling31%3.2CHEMID
Philippe Coutinho31%3.2AVLMID
Gabriel Martinelli29%3.45ARSMID
Dominic Calvert-Lewin29%3.5EVEFWD
Joe Gelhardt29%3.5LEEFWD
Taiwo Awoniyi29%3.5NFOFWD
Lyle Taylor29%3.5NFOFWD
Emmanuel Dennis29%3.5NFOFWD
Sam Surridge29%3.5NFOFWD
Son Heung-Min28%3.55TOTMID
Kai Havertz28%3.6CHEFWD
Phil Foden28%3.6MCIMID
Neal Maupay27%3.7EVEFWD
Yoane Wissa27%3.75BREMID
Cristiano Ronaldo27%3.75MUNFWD
Christian Pulisic26%3.8CHEMID
Jarrod Bowen26%3.8WHUMID
Raul Jimenez26%3.8WOLFWD
Brennan Johnson26%3.8NFOFWD
Bukayo Saka26%3.85ARSMID
Ilkay Gundogan26%3.85MCIMID
Adam Armstrong26%3.9SOUFWD
James Ward-Prowse26%3.9SOUMID
Emile Smith Rowe25%3.95ARSMID
Keane Lewis-Potter25%3.95BREMID
Wilfried Zaha25%3.95CRYMID
Kieffer Moore25%4BOUFWD
Lucas Paqueta25%4WHUMID
Youri Tielemans25%4LEIMID
Mason Mount24%4.2CHEMID
Said Benrahma24%4.2WHUMID
Goncalo Guedes24%4.2WOLMID
Diego Costa24%4.2WOLFWD
Anthony Gordon24%4.25EVEMID
Bryan Mbeumo23%4.35BREFWD
Odsonne Edouard23%4.35CRYFWD
Jack Grealish23%4.35MCIMID
Bernardo Silva23%4.35MCIMID
Allan Saint-Maximin23%4.4NEWMID
Daniel James23%4.4FULMID
Hakim Ziyech23%4.4CHEMID
Pablo Fornals23%4.4WHUMID
Emiliano Buendia23%4.4AVLMID
Leon Bailey23%4.4AVLMID
Jamal Lowe22%4.5BOUMID
Joe Aribo22%4.5SOUMID
Mohamed Elyounoussi22%4.5SOUMID
Martin Odegaard22%4.6ARSMID
Jean-Philippe Mateta21%4.7CRYFWD
Joe Willock21%4.8NEWMID
Philip Billing20%4.9BOUMID
Bobby De Cordova-Reid20%5FULMID
Andreas Pereira20%5FULMID
Bruno Guimaraes20%5NEWMID
Conor Gallagher20%5CHEMID
Manuel Lanzini20%5WHUMID
Hwang Hee-Chan20%5WOLMID
Jesse Lingard20%5NFOMID
Mikkel Damsgaard20%5.1BREMID
Stuart Armstrong20%5.1SOUMID
Demarai Gray19%5.25EVEMID
Danny Welbeck19%5.3BHAFWD
Anthony Martial19%5.3MUNFWD
Bruno Fernandes19%5.3MUNMID
Sergi Canos18%5.5BREMID
Tom Cairney18%5.5FULMID
Deniz Undav18%5.5BHAFWD
Tomas Soucek18%5.5WHUMID
Pedro Neto18%5.5WOLMID
Neeskens Kebano18%5.6FULMID
Marcus Rashford18%5.6MUNMID
Dejan Kulusevski17%5.8TOTMID
Ryan Christie17%6BOUFWD
Ryan Fraser17%6NEWMID
Jacob Murphy17%6NEWMID
Matt Ritchie17%6NEWMID
Miguel Almiron17%6NEWMID
Alexis Mac Allister15%6.5BHAMID
Leandro Trossard15%6.75BHAMID
Josh Dasilva14%7BREMID
Jadon Sancho14%7MUNMID
Trent Alexander-Arnold13%7.5LIVDEF
Ivan Perisic13%8TOTDEF
Reece James13%8CHEDEF
Joao Cancelo11%9MCIDEF
Christian Eriksen11%9.5MUNMID
Andrew Robertson10%10.5LIVDEF
Konstantinos Tsimikas9%11.5LIVDEF
Goalscorer odds gameweek 9

With Spurs playing Arsenal this weekend, the choice of premiums becomes very easy indeed (as if it could get any easier). Erling Haaland (65%) continued his record-breaking start to the season with a goal away at Molineaux in Gameweek 8. That brings him to 11 goals in 8 games, 5 clear of his closest challenger.
By contrast, Mo Salah (48%) has just 2 goals thus far with what has been a disappointing start for both him and Liverpool. He plays a Brighton side this week with the 3rd lowest expected goals conceded, but who knows how that may be affected by the departure of Graham Potter.
Even with the stronger opponent (on paper at least), Haaland is clearly favoured for captaincy this week. Following the bookies has served us well so far. Haaland sits top for FPL points by a 23-point margin!
Salah, however, does return as our premium in midfield this week.

In very much a “fixtures over form” decision, the bookies rate Jamie Vardy (56%) as more likely to score this week than Mo Salah, though this probably says more about Nottingham Forest than it does about Vardy.
Yet to score in the league, it’s been a meek start by Vardy’s standards, who is usually so quick out of the blocks. However, with Forest sitting bottom for expected goals conceded, total attempts conceded and shots on target conceded, it’s not hard to see why the bookies are expecting a Vardy Party.
He’s joined in our lineup by teammate James Maddison (36%), who’s been in fine form with 3 goals and 1 assist in just 6 games played.

The last two positions in our starting XI this week are taken by two models of value and consistency; Aleksandr Mitrovic (43%) & Gabriel Martinelli (29%).
With 9 goals and 1 assist between the two players, they are both approaching “essential” status in our FPL squads, even with Martinelli’s tricky fixtures to come.
Mitrovic takes on former club Newcastle, who looked leaky against Bournemouth last time out. While Martinelli comes up against fierce rivals Tottenham who are weaker down their right-hand side, an area Arsenal will be no doubt looking to exploit.

On the bench for us are Andreas (20%), who has proved to be the best asset in the budget enabler price range. He is joined by Carney Chukwuemeka (£4.3m) for his low price. However, he takes the 3rd spot and is unlikely to feature.

Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 9

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Man City43%2.35
West Ham40%2.48
Aston Villa24%4.25
Crystal Palace21%4.8
Nottingham Forest16%6.1
Man Utd10%10
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 9

Liverpool (48%) top the charts for clean sheet odds ahead of Gameweek 9. The Reds haven’t played in the Premier League since Gameweek 6 in a nil-all draw at Everton.
Just two clean sheets in six games have left owners of Liverpool’s defensive assets frustrated whilst opponents Brighton have had a brilliant start to the season in an attacking sense, scoring 11 goals in 6 games.
However, things have changed since then, and Graham Potter’s departure has left question marks over the Seagulls. Liverpool still have the 4th lowest expected goals conceded (4th), and we’re going all in on betting they get their 3rd clean sheet of the season here.
Alexander-Arnold has one goal and one assist to his name so far and is capable of a massive haul in any given week. Kostas Tsimikas, having impressed in the Champions League versus Ajax, is expected to get the nod at left-back with Andrew Robertson still out with a knee problem. Both feature in our XI this week for a Liverpool defensive double-up.

With just 12 shots on target conceded in 7 games and by far the lowest expected goals conceded, Manchester City (43%) are expected to continue this dominant defensive display in a home derby vs Manchester United this weekend.
Rivals, Manchester United sit firmly mid-table for expected goals, shots on target, shots in the box and big chances. Ten Hag seems to have adopted a counter-attacking style which could suit a game like this, hitting them on the break similar to Arsenal in Gameweek 6. But United were at home that day and City are better than Arsenal. So if United aren’t careful, City could suffocate them.
Joao Cancelo has had an outstanding start to the season, and he continues in our XI for the 9th gameweek in a row.

Chelsea (41%), similar to Liverpool have had a ropey start to the season and are without a clean sheet since the opening day away at Everton. They take on a Crystal Palace side who have scored in every game since their opening day defeat to Arsenal.
Chelsea have been mid to bottom half of the table in most defensive statistics this season, so the bookies seem to believe that Graham Potter can steady the ship quickly. However, Palace also seem to be struggling in an attacking sense when looking at underlying metrics.
The cheap routes into a defensive double-up are attractive about Chelsea here. Kepa Arrizabalaga and Wesley Fofana can be had for £4.4m each, and with both expected to start this weekend, it could provide a decent differential double up.

On the bench for us this week in goal is Danny Ward (£4.0m), who had a torrid time vs Tottenham in Gameweek 8, but his fixtures look kinder for the foreseeable future. Neco Williams (£4.1m) joins him, who is 4th for expected goal involvement amongst all defenders.

Stay up to date on the best tweets before gameweek 9 here:

Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 9

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Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.

You can follow him on Twitter here