A Leicester triple-up shows that the bookies clearly favour fixture over form as we enter a period where many of the “Big Six” play one another. A mixture of new and exciting, together with some old reliables, makes for an exciting Bookies Advantage XI this week.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 9
|Kevin De Bruyne||32%||3.15||MCI||MID|
|Emile Smith Rowe||25%||3.95||ARS||MID|
|Bobby De Cordova-Reid||20%||5||FUL||MID|
|Alexis Mac Allister||15%||6.5||BHA||MID|
With Spurs playing Arsenal this weekend, the choice of premiums becomes very easy indeed (as if it could get any easier). Erling Haaland (65%) continued his record-breaking start to the season with a goal away at Molineaux in Gameweek 8. That brings him to 11 goals in 8 games, 5 clear of his closest challenger.
By contrast, Mo Salah (48%) has just 2 goals thus far with what has been a disappointing start for both him and Liverpool. He plays a Brighton side this week with the 3rd lowest expected goals conceded, but who knows how that may be affected by the departure of Graham Potter.
Even with the stronger opponent (on paper at least), Haaland is clearly favoured for captaincy this week. Following the bookies has served us well so far. Haaland sits top for FPL points by a 23-point margin!
Salah, however, does return as our premium in midfield this week.
In very much a “fixtures over form” decision, the bookies rate Jamie Vardy (56%) as more likely to score this week than Mo Salah, though this probably says more about Nottingham Forest than it does about Vardy.
Yet to score in the league, it’s been a meek start by Vardy’s standards, who is usually so quick out of the blocks. However, with Forest sitting bottom for expected goals conceded, total attempts conceded and shots on target conceded, it’s not hard to see why the bookies are expecting a Vardy Party.
He’s joined in our lineup by teammate James Maddison (36%), who’s been in fine form with 3 goals and 1 assist in just 6 games played.
The last two positions in our starting XI this week are taken by two models of value and consistency; Aleksandr Mitrovic (43%) & Gabriel Martinelli (29%).
With 9 goals and 1 assist between the two players, they are both approaching “essential” status in our FPL squads, even with Martinelli’s tricky fixtures to come.
Mitrovic takes on former club Newcastle, who looked leaky against Bournemouth last time out. While Martinelli comes up against fierce rivals Tottenham who are weaker down their right-hand side, an area Arsenal will be no doubt looking to exploit.
On the bench for us are Andreas (20%), who has proved to be the best asset in the budget enabler price range. He is joined by Carney Chukwuemeka (£4.3m) for his low price. However, he takes the 3rd spot and is unlikely to feature.
Clean Sheet Odds Gameweek 9
|Team||Clean Sheet Probability||Odds|
Liverpool (48%) top the charts for clean sheet odds ahead of Gameweek 9. The Reds haven’t played in the Premier League since Gameweek 6 in a nil-all draw at Everton.
Just two clean sheets in six games have left owners of Liverpool’s defensive assets frustrated whilst opponents Brighton have had a brilliant start to the season in an attacking sense, scoring 11 goals in 6 games.
However, things have changed since then, and Graham Potter’s departure has left question marks over the Seagulls. Liverpool still have the 4th lowest expected goals conceded (4th), and we’re going all in on betting they get their 3rd clean sheet of the season here.
Alexander-Arnold has one goal and one assist to his name so far and is capable of a massive haul in any given week. Kostas Tsimikas, having impressed in the Champions League versus Ajax, is expected to get the nod at left-back with Andrew Robertson still out with a knee problem. Both feature in our XI this week for a Liverpool defensive double-up.
With just 12 shots on target conceded in 7 games and by far the lowest expected goals conceded, Manchester City (43%) are expected to continue this dominant defensive display in a home derby vs Manchester United this weekend.
Rivals, Manchester United sit firmly mid-table for expected goals, shots on target, shots in the box and big chances. Ten Hag seems to have adopted a counter-attacking style which could suit a game like this, hitting them on the break similar to Arsenal in Gameweek 6. But United were at home that day and City are better than Arsenal. So if United aren’t careful, City could suffocate them.
Joao Cancelo has had an outstanding start to the season, and he continues in our XI for the 9th gameweek in a row.
Chelsea (41%), similar to Liverpool have had a ropey start to the season and are without a clean sheet since the opening day away at Everton. They take on a Crystal Palace side who have scored in every game since their opening day defeat to Arsenal.
Chelsea have been mid to bottom half of the table in most defensive statistics this season, so the bookies seem to believe that Graham Potter can steady the ship quickly. However, Palace also seem to be struggling in an attacking sense when looking at underlying metrics.
The cheap routes into a defensive double-up are attractive about Chelsea here. Kepa Arrizabalaga and Wesley Fofana can be had for £4.4m each, and with both expected to start this weekend, it could provide a decent differential double up.
On the bench for us this week in goal is Danny Ward (£4.0m), who had a torrid time vs Tottenham in Gameweek 8, but his fixtures look kinder for the foreseeable future. Neco Williams (£4.1m) joins him, who is 4th for expected goal involvement amongst all defenders.
Stay up to date on the best tweets before gameweek 9 here: https://playmaked.com/best-of-fantasy-premier-league-twitter-gameweek-9/
Bookies’ Dream Team and FPL Captain Gameweek 9
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team.