With just two weeks left until the World Cup break and the prospect of unlimited transfers, the opportunity for green arrows is fantastic for those who dare to risk it.
As always, well-thought-out differentials are essential, and we have a few in our lineup this week.
We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.
Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.
We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.
Notes:
- We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
- The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.
Check out our roundup of the most helpful tweets ahead of gameweek 15
Goalscorer odds Gameweek 15
| Player | Goal probability | Odds | Team | Position |
| Erling Haaland | 75% | 1.34 | MCI | FWD |
| Julian Alvarez | 58% | 1.72 | MCI | FWD |
| Callum Wilson | 45% | 2.23 | NEW | FWD |
| Riyad Mahrez | 43% | 2.3 | MCI | MID |
| Phil Foden | 41% | 2.43 | MCI | MID |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 41% | 2.43 | MCI | MID |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 40% | 2.5 | MUN | FWD |
| Patrick Bamford | 39% | 2.55 | LEE | FWD |
| Rodrigo | 39% | 2.55 | LEE | MID |
| Mohamed Salah | 39% | 2.55 | LIV | MID |
| Harry Kane | 38% | 2.6 | TOT | FWD |
| Darwin Nunez | 35% | 2.85 | LIV | FWD |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 34% | 2.9 | EVE | FWD |
| Gianluca Scamacca | 34% | 2.95 | WHU | FWD |
| Gabriel Jesus | 32% | 3.1 | ARS | FWD |
| Neal Maupay | 32% | 3.1 | EVE | FWD |
| Roberto Firmino | 32% | 3.1 | LIV | FWD |
| Ilkay Gundogan | 32% | 3.1 | MCI | MID |
| Jack Grealish | 32% | 3.1 | MCI | MID |
| Taiwo Awoniyi | 32% | 3.15 | NFO | FWD |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 31% | 3.2 | CHE | FWD |
| Jamie Vardy | 31% | 3.25 | LEI | FWD |
| Danny Welbeck | 30% | 3.35 | BHA | FWD |
| Leandro Trossard | 30% | 3.35 | BHA | MID |
| Bernardo Silva | 30% | 3.35 | MCI | MID |
| Anthony Martial | 30% | 3.35 | MUN | FWD |
| Marcus Rashford | 30% | 3.35 | MUN | MID |
| Michail Antonio | 30% | 3.35 | WHU | FWD |
| Patson Daka | 29% | 3.45 | LEI | FWD |
| Jarrod Bowen | 29% | 3.45 | WHU | MID |
| Anthony Gordon | 28% | 3.55 | EVE | MID |
| Son Heung-Min | 28% | 3.55 | TOT | MID |
| Armando Broja | 28% | 3.6 | CHE | FWD |
| Dominic Solanke | 28% | 3.6 | BOU | FWD |
| Eddie Nketiah | 27% | 3.7 | ARS | FWD |
| Danny Ings | 27% | 3.7 | AVL | FWD |
| Kelechi Iheanacho | 27% | 3.7 | LEI | FWD |
| Miguel Almiron | 27% | 3.7 | NEW | MID |
| Yoane Wissa | 27% | 3.75 | BRE | MID |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 27% | 3.75 | BRE | FWD |
| Antony | 27% | 3.75 | MUN | MID |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | 26% | 3.8 | FUL | FWD |
| Ollie Watkins | 26% | 3.85 | AVL | FWD |
| Raheem Sterling | 26% | 3.85 | CHE | MID |
| Che Adams | 25% | 3.95 | SOU | FWD |
| Kai Havertz | 25% | 4 | CHE | FWD |
| Brenden Aaronson | 25% | 4 | LEE | MID |
| Wilfried Zaha | 24% | 4.1 | CRY | MID |
| Odsonne Edouard | 24% | 4.1 | CRY | FWD |
| Fabio Carvalho | 24% | 4.1 | LIV | MID |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 24% | 4.2 | ARS | MID |
| Bukayo Saka | 24% | 4.2 | ARS | MID |
| Christian Pulisic | 24% | 4.2 | CHE | MID |
| Kieffer Moore | 24% | 4.25 | BOU | FWD |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | 23% | 4.4 | BRE | MID |
| James Maddison | 22% | 4.5 | LEI | MID |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 22% | 4.6 | CRY | FWD |
| Jadon Sancho | 22% | 4.6 | MUN | MID |
| Mason Mount | 21% | 4.7 | CHE | MID |
| Hee-Chan Hwang | 21% | 4.7 | WOL | MID |
| Goncalo Guedes | 21% | 4.75 | WOL | MID |
| Harvey Barnes | 20% | 4.9 | LEI | MID |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 20% | 4.9 | NEW | MID |
| Philippe Coutinho | 19% | 5.2 | AVL | MID |
| Adam Armstrong | 19% | 5.2 | SOU | FWD |
| Lucas Moura | 19% | 5.3 | TOT | MID |
| Leon Bailey | 19% | 5.4 | AVL | MID |
| Martin Odegaard | 18% | 5.5 | ARS | MID |
| Emiliano Buendia | 17% | 5.75 | AVL | MID |
| Carlos Vinicius | 17% | 5.75 | FUL | FWD |
| Christian Eriksen | 15% | 6.75 | MUN | MID |
| Joao Cancelo | 14% | 7 | MCI | DEF |
| Joe Willock | 14% | 7 | NEW | MID |
| Jonjo Shelvey | 13% | 7.5 | NEW | MID |
| Ivan Perisic | 13% | 7.5 | TOT | DEF |
| Granit Xhaka | 11% | 9 | ARS | MID |
| Harry Wilson | 11% | 9 | FUL | MID |
| Virgil van Dijk | 10% | 10 | LIV | DEF |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 10% | 10 | LIV | DEF |
| Andreas Pereira | 9% | 11 | FUL | MID |
Erling Haaland (75%) is once again top of the pile for goal-scoring odds after his absence last week due to a foot injury. The Norwegian has been spotted in training during the week and is expected to make a comeback in Gameweek 15.
This is not good news for Marco Silva and Fulham, who travel to the Etihad this weekend having not kept a clean sheet in their last five away matches. The Cottagers all-out attacking style has been good to watch, but it often leaves them exposed at the back.
After looking stagnant in attack last week, Man City will be roaring on all cylinders with the return of their talismanic striker. Haaland returns as our captain once again.
Callum Wilson (45%) recorded a 19-point haul in Gameweek 14 as Newcastle tore Aston Villa to shreds. This led to his ownership shooting up, but he remains in differential territory at 10%.
This week he travels to Southampton, who have conceded more than one goal at home just twice this season. However, they are 19th for expected goals conceded and 20th for clean sheets in home games with none.
With the Magpies flying high, the Bookies expect Wilson to punish the Saints this weekend, so he’s our vice-captain.
Mo Salah (39%) rewarded owners with a goal last time out against Leeds. However, most were still left with a sense of disappointment as Liverpool’s poor form continued.
By right, Kevin De Bruyne (41%) should take the premium midfield spot, but we’re already tripled up on Man City, as will be seen later.
This week, Salah travels to Spurs, who are in something of a crisis themselves, in terms of performances if not in results. Conceding six goals in their last three games shows Spurs are missing Christian Romero.
Next up is a differential in Patrick Bamford (39%). The Leeds forward is one shy of his 100th Leeds goal, and the Bookies are backing him to break his duck this weekend against Bournemouth.
The Cherries’ defensive date is awful, and Bamford has the best Big Chances per 90 in home games amongst all forwards (2.66), even better than Haaland (yes, we know sample sizes are a thing)!
He’s joined by Leeds teammate Rodrigo Moreno (39%). After starting the season so brightly, he may have picked up his good form again after capitalising on a mistake vs Liverpool.
Lastly, it’s Marcus Rashford (30%). The Man United winger seems to have rediscovered his form of old and is steadily becoming the standout player in Erik Ten Hag’s new look Man United. He has decent underlying stats, too, with 0.86 big chances per 90, and his non-penalty expected goals per 90 are the same as Foden (0.36).
On the bench this week are Leon Bailey (19%) and Andreas Pereira (9%). Though they both have tough fixtures, they offer decent value at their respective prices.
The World Cup is only a month away! Check out our best World Cup 2022 Fantasy tips
Clean sheet odds gameweek 15
| Team | Clean Sheet Probability | Odds |
| Arsenal | 27% | 3.75 |
| Aston Villa | 22% | 4.5 |
| Bournemouth | 17% | 5.8 |
| Brentford | 30% | 3.35 |
| Brighton | 36% | 2.75 |
| Chelsea | 27% | 3.65 |
| Crystal Palace | 22% | 4.5 |
| Everton | 32% | 3.1 |
| Fulham | 9% | 11 |
| Leeds | 37% | 2.7 |
| Leicester | 27% | 3.75 |
| Liverpool | 29% | 3.5 |
| Man City | 53% | 1.89 |
| Man Utd | 32% | 3.1 |
| Newcastle | 37% | 2.7 |
| Nottingham Forest | 27% | 3.65 |
| Southampton | 20% | 5 |
| Tottenham | 20% | 5.1 |
| West Ham | 40% | 2.48 |
| Wolves | 26% | 3.9 |
Man City (55%) are far and away top for clean sheet odds this weekend after they kept Leicester quiet last time out.
This week, they welcome Fulham to the Etihad who failed to score at home to Everton in Gameweek 14. While the Cottagers have shown decent goalscoring form against Top Six opponents, scoring against Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs, Man City is a different prospect and the Bookies are very confident of a City clean sheet.
For this reason we have kept our defensive double up of Joao Cancelo and Manuel Akanji. The two seem the most nailed, and Cancelo’s attacking ability only adds to his appeal.
West Ham (40%) are up next and have proved a tough nut to crack at home of late with two clean sheets in their last three games.
Gameweek 15 sees them take on Crystal Palace, who have struggled on the road, failing to score in their last three away games. In fact, Patrick Vieira’s men sit last for goals from open play away from home (0), open play expected goals (2.43), shots in the box (21) and big chances (5).
Aaron Cresswell has created 11 chances for his team mates, as well as being on set-pieces for a team that loves to score from them. At just £4.8m he’s a good differential pick this week.
Newcastle (38%) have conceded the least amount of goals in the league so far(10), and sit joint first for clean sheets along with Man City with six.
They travel to the south coast this weekend to take on a Southampton side who were shut out away to Crystal Palace in Gameweek 14, making it the fifth game this season in which they have failed to score.
Last weekend, Kieran Trippier showed once again why his ownership is so high with a clean sheet, assist and two bonus points for a nice double-digit haul. As a result, he seems the obvious choice in the Magpies’ defence.
Leeds (38%) showed their metal last weekend as they fought to earn a historic win at Anfield for the first time in over two decades, thanks in no small part to the heroics of their goalkeeper, Illan Meslier.
They will be on a high when Bournemouth come to town in Gameweek 15, who themselves suffered a crushing defeat in the 93rd minute as the Cherries blew their 2-0 lead. Their goal scoring stats away from home make for poor reading and the Bookies expect Bournemouth’s misery to continue when they travel to Elland Road this weekend.
Illan Meslier is our choice between the sticks this week. The Leeds keeper is a save machine, and on the occasions when he does keep a clean sheet, he’s very good on bonus points.
On our bench this week is Hugo Bueno (£3.9m), Wolves (27%) who continues to be good value for money as well as Danny Ward (£4.1m), Leicester (27%) for the same reason.
Captain and team of the week gameweek 15
Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here