Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 15

With just two weeks left until the World Cup break and the prospect of unlimited transfers, the opportunity for green arrows is fantastic for those who dare to risk it.
As always, well-thought-out differentials are essential, and we have a few in our lineup this week.

About Bookie’s Advantage

We use bookmakers’ odds to pick the perfect FPL team for the upcoming gameweek, including selecting the best captain.

Bookmakers make a living from predicting the future. Simply put, bookmakers set odds to represent what they believe is the most likely outcome of an event. It gets a bit more complex, but in a liquid market (many bettors), the odds should accurately predict the likelihood of an outcome. If the odds are way off, that creates arbitrage that will be exploited quickly by traders.

We translate bookmakers’ odds into likelihood to help you pick your team.


  • We don’t remove the variable bookmaker’s margin, so the likelihood is realistically a few percentage points lower than in our projections.
  • The odds are assuming the player starts. Most bookies operate with a rule where the bet is refunded if the player isn’t in the starting lineup.

Check out our roundup of the most helpful tweets ahead of gameweek 15

Goalscorer odds Gameweek 15

PlayerGoal probabilityOddsTeamPosition
Erling Haaland75%1.34MCIFWD
Julian Alvarez58%1.72MCIFWD
Callum Wilson45%2.23NEWFWD
Riyad Mahrez43%2.3MCIMID
Phil Foden41%2.43MCIMID
Kevin De Bruyne41%2.43MCIMID
Cristiano Ronaldo40%2.5MUNFWD
Patrick Bamford39%2.55LEEFWD
Mohamed Salah39%2.55LIVMID
Harry Kane38%2.6TOTFWD
Darwin Nunez35%2.85LIVFWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin34%2.9EVEFWD
Gianluca Scamacca34%2.95WHUFWD
Gabriel Jesus32%3.1ARSFWD
Neal Maupay32%3.1EVEFWD
Roberto Firmino32%3.1LIVFWD
Ilkay Gundogan32%3.1MCIMID
Jack Grealish32%3.1MCIMID
Taiwo Awoniyi32%3.15NFOFWD
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang31%3.2CHEFWD
Jamie Vardy31%3.25LEIFWD
Danny Welbeck30%3.35BHAFWD
Leandro Trossard30%3.35BHAMID
Bernardo Silva30%3.35MCIMID
Anthony Martial30%3.35MUNFWD
Marcus Rashford30%3.35MUNMID
Michail Antonio30%3.35WHUFWD
Patson Daka29%3.45LEIFWD
Jarrod Bowen29%3.45WHUMID
Anthony Gordon28%3.55EVEMID
Son Heung-Min28%3.55TOTMID
Armando Broja28%3.6CHEFWD
Dominic Solanke28%3.6BOUFWD
Eddie Nketiah27%3.7ARSFWD
Danny Ings27%3.7AVLFWD
Kelechi Iheanacho27%3.7LEIFWD
Miguel Almiron27%3.7NEWMID
Yoane Wissa27%3.75BREMID
Bryan Mbeumo27%3.75BREFWD
Aleksandar Mitrovic26%3.8FULFWD
Ollie Watkins26%3.85AVLFWD
Raheem Sterling26%3.85CHEMID
Che Adams25%3.95SOUFWD
Kai Havertz25%4CHEFWD
Brenden Aaronson25%4LEEMID
Wilfried Zaha24%4.1CRYMID
Odsonne Edouard24%4.1CRYFWD
Fabio Carvalho24%4.1LIVMID
Gabriel Martinelli24%4.2ARSMID
Bukayo Saka24%4.2ARSMID
Christian Pulisic24%4.2CHEMID
Kieffer Moore24%4.25BOUFWD
Keane Lewis-Potter23%4.4BREMID
James Maddison22%4.5LEIMID
Jean-Philippe Mateta22%4.6CRYFWD
Jadon Sancho22%4.6MUNMID
Mason Mount21%4.7CHEMID
Hee-Chan Hwang21%4.7WOLMID
Goncalo Guedes21%4.75WOLMID
Harvey Barnes20%4.9LEIMID
Bruno Guimaraes20%4.9NEWMID
Philippe Coutinho19%5.2AVLMID
Adam Armstrong19%5.2SOUFWD
Lucas Moura19%5.3TOTMID
Leon Bailey19%5.4AVLMID
Martin Odegaard18%5.5ARSMID
Emiliano Buendia17%5.75AVLMID
Carlos Vinicius17%5.75FULFWD
Christian Eriksen15%6.75MUNMID
Joao Cancelo14%7MCIDEF
Joe Willock14%7NEWMID
Jonjo Shelvey13%7.5NEWMID
Ivan Perisic13%7.5TOTDEF
Granit Xhaka11%9ARSMID
Harry Wilson11%9FULMID
Virgil van Dijk10%10LIVDEF
Trent Alexander-Arnold10%10LIVDEF
Andreas Pereira9%11FULMID
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 15

Erling Haaland (75%) is once again top of the pile for goal-scoring odds after his absence last week due to a foot injury. The Norwegian has been spotted in training during the week and is expected to make a comeback in Gameweek 15.
This is not good news for Marco Silva and Fulham, who travel to the Etihad this weekend having not kept a clean sheet in their last five away matches. The Cottagers all-out attacking style has been good to watch, but it often leaves them exposed at the back.
After looking stagnant in attack last week, Man City will be roaring on all cylinders with the return of their talismanic striker. Haaland returns as our captain once again.

Callum Wilson (45%) recorded a 19-point haul in Gameweek 14 as Newcastle tore Aston Villa to shreds. This led to his ownership shooting up, but he remains in differential territory at 10%.
This week he travels to Southampton, who have conceded more than one goal at home just twice this season. However, they are 19th for expected goals conceded and 20th for clean sheets in home games with none.
With the Magpies flying high, the Bookies expect Wilson to punish the Saints this weekend, so he’s our vice-captain.

Mo Salah (39%) rewarded owners with a goal last time out against Leeds. However, most were still left with a sense of disappointment as Liverpool’s poor form continued.
By right, Kevin De Bruyne (41%) should take the premium midfield spot, but we’re already tripled up on Man City, as will be seen later.
This week, Salah travels to Spurs, who are in something of a crisis themselves, in terms of performances if not in results. Conceding six goals in their last three games shows Spurs are missing Christian Romero.

Next up is a differential in Patrick Bamford (39%). The Leeds forward is one shy of his 100th Leeds goal, and the Bookies are backing him to break his duck this weekend against Bournemouth.
The Cherries’ defensive date is awful, and Bamford has the best Big Chances per 90 in home games amongst all forwards (2.66), even better than Haaland (yes, we know sample sizes are a thing)!
He’s joined by Leeds teammate Rodrigo Moreno (39%). After starting the season so brightly, he may have picked up his good form again after capitalising on a mistake vs Liverpool.

Lastly, it’s Marcus Rashford (30%). The Man United winger seems to have rediscovered his form of old and is steadily becoming the standout player in Erik Ten Hag’s new look Man United. He has decent underlying stats, too, with 0.86 big chances per 90, and his non-penalty expected goals per 90 are the same as Foden (0.36).

On the bench this week are Leon Bailey (19%) and Andreas Pereira (9%). Though they both have tough fixtures, they offer decent value at their respective prices.

The World Cup is only a month away! Check out our best World Cup 2022 Fantasy tips

Clean sheet odds gameweek 15

TeamClean Sheet ProbabilityOdds
Aston Villa22%4.5
Crystal Palace22%4.5
Man City53%1.89
Man Utd32%3.1
Nottingham Forest27%3.65
West Ham40%2.48
Clean sheet odds gameweek 15

Man City (55%) are far and away top for clean sheet odds this weekend after they kept Leicester quiet last time out.
This week, they welcome Fulham to the Etihad who failed to score at home to Everton in Gameweek 14. While the Cottagers have shown decent goalscoring form against Top Six opponents, scoring against Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs, Man City is a different prospect and the Bookies are very confident of a City clean sheet.
For this reason we have kept our defensive double up of Joao Cancelo and Manuel Akanji. The two seem the most nailed, and Cancelo’s attacking ability only adds to his appeal.

West Ham (40%) are up next and have proved a tough nut to crack at home of late with two clean sheets in their last three games.
Gameweek 15 sees them take on Crystal Palace, who have struggled on the road, failing to score in their last three away games. In fact, Patrick Vieira’s men sit last for goals from open play away from home (0), open play expected goals (2.43), shots in the box (21) and big chances (5).
Aaron Cresswell has created 11 chances for his team mates, as well as being on set-pieces for a team that loves to score from them. At just £4.8m he’s a good differential pick this week.

Newcastle (38%) have conceded the least amount of goals in the league so far(10), and sit joint first for clean sheets along with Man City with six.
They travel to the south coast this weekend to take on a Southampton side who were shut out away to Crystal Palace in Gameweek 14, making it the fifth game this season in which they have failed to score.
Last weekend, Kieran Trippier showed once again why his ownership is so high with a clean sheet, assist and two bonus points for a nice double-digit haul. As a result, he seems the obvious choice in the Magpies’ defence.

Leeds (38%) showed their metal last weekend as they fought to earn a historic win at Anfield for the first time in over two decades, thanks in no small part to the heroics of their goalkeeper, Illan Meslier.
They will be on a high when Bournemouth come to town in Gameweek 15, who themselves suffered a crushing defeat in the 93rd minute as the Cherries blew their 2-0 lead. Their goal scoring stats away from home make for poor reading and the Bookies expect Bournemouth’s misery to continue when they travel to Elland Road this weekend.
Illan Meslier is our choice between the sticks this week. The Leeds keeper is a save machine, and on the occasions when he does keep a clean sheet, he’s very good on bonus points.

On our bench this week is Hugo Bueno (£3.9m), Wolves (27%) who continues to be good value for money as well as Danny Ward (£4.1m), Leicester (27%) for the same reason.

Captain and team of the week gameweek 15

Best team Gameweek 15 based on goalscorer and clean sheet odds

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here