Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 19

The gameweeks are coming thick and fast as we hurtle towards our first double of the season.
The double provides some attractive differential options as well as a few obvious ones, and for the first time this season, Erling Haaland is snubbed for the captain’s armband.

See how we rate five captain candidates in the FPL Captain Call article

Goalscorer odds

PlayerProbabilityProbability match 2Combined probability
Aleksandar Mitrovic43%36%63%
Erling Haaland53%53%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang25%37%53%
Kai Havertz22%37%51%
Raheem Sterling21%33%47%
Mohamed Salah47%47%
Carlos Vinicius29%25%46%
Christian Pulisic19%32%45%
Darwin Nunez44%44%
Anthony Martial43%43%
Harry Kane43%43%
Marcus Rashford42%42%
Mason Mount17%28%40%
Roberto Firmino38%38%
Julian Alvarez38%38%
Jamie Vardy36%36%
Eddie Nketiah36%36%
Patson Daka35%35%
Bruno Fernandes35%35%
Kelechi Iheanacho34%34%
Che Adams34%34%
Callum Wilson33%33%
Gianluca Scamacca32%32%
Harry Wilson18%17%32%
Patrick Bamford32%32%
Danny Ings31%31%
Danny Welbeck31%31%
Leandro Trossard31%31%
Son Heung-Min31%31%
Ollie Watkins30%30%
Jadon Sancho30%30%
Gabriel Martinelli29%29%
Bukayo Saka29%29%
Fabio Carvalho29%29%
Wilfried Zaha29%29%
Odsonne Edouard29%29%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin28%28%
Harvey Barnes28%28%
Michail Antonio28%28%
Jarrod Bowen27%27%
Andreas Pereira15%14%27%
Neal Maupay26%26%
Phil Foden26%26%
Taiwo Awoniyi26%26%
Jean-Philippe Mateta26%26%
Adam Armstrong26%26%
Riyad Mahrez25%25%
Chris Wood24%24%
Diego Costa24%24%
Martin Odegaard24%24%
Kevin De Bruyne24%24%
Raul Jimenez24%24%
Anthony Gordon23%23%
Leon Bailey23%23%
Philippe Coutinho23%23%
Yoane Wissa23%23%
Bryan Mbeumo21%21%
Miguel Almiron21%21%
Emiliano Buendia20%20%
Hee-Chan Hwang20%20%
Dominic Solanke20%20%
Christian Eriksen20%20%
Goncalo Guedes20%20%
Dejan Kulusevski20%20%
Ilkay Gundogan19%19%
Pascal Gross19%19%
Kieffer Moore18%18%
Allan Saint-Maximin18%18%
Brenden Aaronson17%17%
Bernardo Silva17%17%
Jack Grealish17%17%
Ivan Perisic15%15%
Bruno Guimaraes14%14%
Granit Xhaka13%13%
Virgil van Dijk12%12%
Trent Alexander-Arnold12%12%
Joe Willock12%12%
Joao Cancelo9%9%
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 19

Odds from Betsson. They currently offer up to €100 in first deposit bonus. Claim your offer here. 18+, T&Cs apply.

Aleksandr Mitrovic (63%) is the name on everyone in the FPL community’s lips this week. The in-demand forward is given the highest likelihood of scoring across his two games as he takes on both Leicester and Chelsea for a double gameweek.
Leicester have been poor defensively of late, conceding three big chances in each of their last two games. While Chelsea have looked more solid in recent games, they haven’t really been tested yet.
Mitrovic has been in great form, and was unlucky to have missed his penalty vs Southampton on New Year’s Eve. For the first time this season, Erling Haaland is displaced as captain and the captaincy goes to Mitrovic.

Erling Haaland (53%) still makes our team, though, as he is given the best chance of scoring out of all the single gameweekers.
Even though Manchester City were frustrated as they dropped more points at home, Haaland was still not to be denied as he scored the opener.
There’s really not much more to say about this man. On any given week he could score 3 or more goals. So he’s an easy inclusion in our XI.

Kai Havertz (51%) took his goal against Bournemouth well in Gameweek 17 but followed it up with a lacklustre performance against Forest this weekend.
Man City have been leaky of late and Havertz will be hoping to capitalise on that while Fulham are no great shakes at the back either.
The Bookies rate Havertz as the most likely goalscorer for Chelsea across the two games so he takes our third striker spot.
He is joined by teammate Raheem Sterling (47%) who now has a goal and assist in his last two and have a point to prove when he faces his old club at home this gameweek.

Mo Salah (47%) had a raft of chances against Leicester and on another day, he could have had a hattrick but it just wasn’t to be. The Liverpool forward missed two big chances and created chances for Nunez who also failed to score.
Salah is still well backed to score away at Brentford in Gameweek 19 though, the Bookies rating him joint highest of the premium midfielders. He is an obvious pick in our team this week.

Marcus Rashford (42%) slept in on Saturday to earn himself a benching, however the United forward came on in the second half to catch Wolves defence napping as he scored the game’s only goal. He could have put the game to bed late on but a VAR check ruled it out for handball and ruined owner’s dreams of a haul.
Up against Bournemouth this week at home and in hot form. It would take a brave man to bet against Marcus Rashford.

On the bench for us this week is Andreas (27%) who also has a double and he he is joined by Josh Dasilva (£4.2m) for budget sake.

Clean sheet odds

TeamCS ProbabilityCS Probability game 2Combined probability
Man Utd51%51%
Aston Villa39%39%
Man City38%38%
West Ham25%25%
Crystal Palace24%24%
Nottingham Forest24%24%

Odds from Betsson. They currently offer up to €100 in first deposit bonus. Claim your offer here. 18+, T&Cs apply.

Man United (51%) made it two clean sheets in a row away to Wolves in Gameweek 18. They are top three for big chances conceded and minutes per expected goal conceded since their heavy defeat away at Man City in Gameweek 9.
This week they play host to Bournemouth who are without a goal since the restart, putting up an expected goal tally of just 0.54 vs Chelsea and 0.56 vs Crystal Palace.
Luke Shaw is a bonus points magnet at the moment, even playing from centre back. With Lisandro Martinez returning, he should shift over the left back again and play higher up the pitch. He is joined by David De Gea for a Man United defensive double up.

Chelsea (49%) have a double gameweek this week and their odds reflect the possibility of at least one clean sheet from the two games. They looked uninspiring away at Nottingham Forest last gameweek as they failed to keep a clean sheet, however this is purely a numbers game with two chances for points.
Marc Cucurella seems the most nailed and the most likely to get forward. He makes our team again this week.

Aston Villa (39%) shocked Spurs on New Year’s Day to win 0-2 and keep a clean sheet away from home. Unai Emery seems to be instilling his ideas into this under performing Villa side.
This week they play Wolves at home and while they look improved under Lopetegui, they still lack the quality of players in attacking areas to make a difference.
Lucas Digne is always a good shout for a haul, the full back’s ability to create and even score himself are well known. He makes our XI this week.

Liverpool (38%) continue to frustrate in terms of clean sheets but they are improving. With key players returning in midfield and defence the team is looking more solid as a whole and the Bookies believe it’s only a matter of time before things begin to click again.
An away trip to Brentford is never easy but we’re backing an old stalwart of our FPL teams in Trent Alexander-Arnold. With Robertson injured it will be up to Alexander-Arnold to provide the attacking threat from the back and with an assist last week, the Liverpool man provides a highly explosive differential.

Daniel Iversen (£3.9m) is our sub keeper this week for budget reasons as well as Hugo Bueno (£3.9m) who banked his clean sheet points before conceding last week.

Team of the week gameweek 19

Goalscorer odds Gameweek 19

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here