Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 20

Another double gameweek provides the chance to gamble in the hopes of big returns if you play your cards right.
Template picks, differentials and (triple) captains are all on the table as we prepare to spin the roulette wheel once again in the hopes of hitting the jackpot.

We have analysed the captain options for gameweek 20 here

Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 20

PlayerProbabilityProbability match 2Combined probability
Erling Haaland51%58%79%
Riyad Mahrez27%43%58%
Marcus Rashford24%38%52%
Wilfried Zaha25%30%48%
Phil Foden23%30%46%
Ivan Toney45%45%
Kevin De Bruyne21%30%44%
Callum Wilson43%43%
Odsonne Edouard22%27%43%
Mohamed Salah43%43%
Bruno Fernandes19%29%42%
Ilkay Gundogan20%27%42%
Anthony Martial18%28%41%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang39%39%
Darwin Nunez39%39%
Danny Ings38%38%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin36%36%
Chris Wood36%36%
Harry Kane36%29%54%
Dejan Kulusevski34%34%
Yoane Wissa34%34%
Neal Maupay34%34%
Eddie Nketiah33%33%
Ollie Watkins33%33%
Kai Havertz33%33%
Jamie Vardy33%33%
Taiwo Awoniyi32%32%
Jack Grealish14%20%31%
Mason Mount31%31%
Aleksandar Mitrovic31%31%
Son Heung-Min30%30%
Miguel Almiron29%29%
Bukayo Saka29%29%
Leon Bailey29%29%
Matheus Cunha29%29%
Gabriel Martinelli28%28%
Gianluca Scamacca28%28%
Patson Daka27%27%
Goncalo Guedes27%27%
Christian Eriksen11%17%26%
Harvey Barnes26%26%
Leandro Trossard25%25%
Raul Jimenez25%25%
Emiliano Buendia24%24%
Che Adams24%24%
Dominic Solanke23%23%
Fabio Carvalho23%23%
Kieffer Moore23%23%
Bryan Mbeumo23%23%
Hee-Chan Hwang22%22%
Michail Antonio22%22%
Joe Willock21%21%
Anthony Gordon20%20%
Bruno Guimaraes19%19%
Jarrod Bowen19%19%
Martin Odegaard17%17%
Pascal Gross17%17%
Joao Cancelo7%10%16%
Bernardo Silva13%13%
Ivan Perisic12%12%
Brenden Aaronson9%9%
Granit Xhaka8%8%
Andreas Pereira8%8%
Goalscorer Odds Gameweek 20

Odds from Betsson. They currently offer up to €100 in first deposit bonus. Claim your offer here. 18+, T&Cs apply.

Our captain this week is Erling Haaland (79%), obviously.

Why would you even ask that?

Man City’s defeat to Southampton during the week seems to have spooked some people, with others proposing Kane and Rashford as potential alternatives. While these are good options, clearly, the Bookies see Haaland in a class of his own.
The Norwegian is yet to blank two gameweeks in a row while Man City’s underlying attacking numbers remain good, creating 15 big chances in the last four gameweeks.
With many likely triple-captaining the Man City man, sticking the armband on anyone else is a very risky move.

Despite Crystal Palace’s troubles as noted earlier, Wilfried Zaha (48%) is still favoured by the Bookies. This week they play Chelsea and Man United in what looks an uninspiring double, however, Zaha does tend to do better against the better teams as there is more space for him to counterattack into. He’s another relatively differential player in our team this week.

Callum Wilson (43%) is back from injury and raring to go. The Newcastle number nine must be licking his lips at the prospect of Fulham at home. Fulham have conceded eight big chances in the last four games Newcastle have created 16 big chances over the last four, the most of any team in the Premier League.

Mo Salah (43%) continues to frustrate, though the chances and underlying numbers are there he still seems to be struggling to convert those chances like he was last season, though it’s worth noting he still has 12 returns for the season.
Brighton are 14th for big chances conceded since the restart and at home they don’t hold back, leaving lots of space in behind the defence.

Anthony Martial (41%) has just one return since the restart, a somewhat fortunate goal against Nottingham Forest however the Man United number nine has accumulated 5 big chances in that time, suggesting goals could be on the way.
Funnily enough, Martial actually bagged a brace in the away fixture against Man City earlier in the season, though his side were already well beaten at that stage. With Crystal Palace floundering defensively, the Man City match is just an added bonus and worth a punt in our XI this week.
He is joined by team mate Anthony (40%) who has scored in his last two and provides a decent punt against the Rashford bandwagon. Anthony has looked dangerous if disappointing in the early stages of his United career but of late he has been more deadly and is worth a shout in our team this week.

On our bench this week is Miguel Almiron (29%), now with six returns in his last eight games & Josh Dasilva (£4.2m).

Clean sheet odds gameweek 20:

TeamCS ProbabilityCS Probability game 2Combined probability
Man City36%46%66%
Man Utd19%40%52%
Crystal Palace20%23%38%
Aston Villa38%38%
West Ham34%34%
Nottingham Forest31%31%
Clean sheet odds gameweek 20

Manchester City (66%), unsurprisingly, are the most likely to come away with at least one clean sheet from their two games this gameweek. Much has been made of their midweek defeat to Southampton in the Carabao cup, but clearly the Bookies see this as a blip more than anything.
Their opponents this weekend, Spurs, have created just three big chances in three games post restart, and while Manchester United have looked better in attack in their last three, their fixtures were very kind.
Were doubling down on the league champion’s defence with Ederson as the safest way into the City back line, and Manuel Akanji who has started all but one game in the Premier League since he was introduced back in Gameweek 8.

Next up, it’s Man United (52%) whose steadily improving defence now has the same amount of clean sheets as Arsenal (8).
Playing Man City never makes for good reading when looking at clean sheet odds but with the way United’s defence has been looking at home there is an outside chance of a return. With the Crystal Palace fixture added in for a double, given their problems referenced earlier, buying a ticket to this particular raffle seems like a good idea.
Luke Shaw fresh off a 15 point haul against Bournemouth looks a good pick and an ideal Cancelo replacement as he looks to be out of favour across town.

Chelsea (47%) are the third most likely team to keep a clean sheet this weekend despite poor form and mounting pressure on Potter.
Gameweek 20 sees them welcome an equally struggling Crystal Palace to Stamford Bridge for what should be a cagey affair. Palace have only created three big chances in their last four games while Chelsea have created just four. It looks as though defences will be on top in this one.
We’ve gone for a cheap route into the Blues’ backline with veteran right back Cesar Azpilicueta (£4.8) who should be nailed with Reece James still out with injury.

Lastly, Newcastle (46%) are up next as they host Fulham in Gameweek 20. The Magpies continue to have an unflappable defence as they kept out Arsenal away from home in Gameweek 19, earning a creditable 0-0. Eddie Howe’s side have the best defensive record in the league with 10 clean sheets and just 11 goals conceded.
Kieran Trippier remains a no brainer in our side and should be in yours by now as well. The right back is nearly 40 points clear as the best defender in the game.

Daniel Iversen (£3.9m) is our sub keeper this week for budget reasons as well as Hugo Bueno (£3.9m) who continues to look like the best £3.9 defender option available.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here