Bookie’s Advantage Gameweek 21

Going off the Bookies, it appears clean sheets will be at a premium this gameweek as teams from both the bottom and top of the league clash.
Doubts over Man City and Haaland linger, though, with many managers getting itchy feet as they consider the unthinkable with their captaincy.

We have analysed the captain options for gameweek 21 here

All odds from Betsson. They currently offer up to €100 in first deposit bonus. Claim your offer here. 18+, T&Cs apply.

Goalscorer Odds gameweek 21

Erling Haaland67%1.49MCIFWD
Harry Kane48%2.08TOTFWD
Ivan Toney43%2.3BREFWD
Aleksandar Mitrovic42%2.38FULFWD
Julian Alvarez42%2.38MCIFWD
Darwin Nunez40%2.5LIVFWD
Gianluca Scamacca40%2.5WHUFWD
Dejan Kulusevski39%5.4TOTMID
Son Heung-Min39%2.55TOTMID
Eddie Nketiah38%2.65ARSFWD
Mohamed Salah37%2.7LIVMID
Callum Wilson36%2.75NEWFWD
Patrick Bamford36%2.8LEEFWD
Evan Ferguson35%2.85BHAFWD
Kevin De Bruyne35%2.88MCIMID
Jamie Vardy34%2.9LEIFWD
Danny Ings34%2.95AVLFWD
Danny Welbeck34%2.95BHAFWD
Phil Foden34%2.95MCIMID
Kelechi Iheanacho33%3LEIFWD
Riyad Mahrez33%3MCIMID
Cody Gakpo33%3.05LIVMID
Kieffer Moore32%3.1BOUFWD
Ollie Watkins31%3.2AVLFWD
Taiwo Awoniyi31%3.25NFOFWD
Bukayo Saka30%3.3ARSMID
Gabriel Martinelli30%3.3ARSMID
Ilkay Gundogan30%3.3MCIMID
Alexander Isak30%3.3NEWFWD
Yoane Wissa29%3.5BREMID
Fabio Carvalho29%3.5LIVMID
Carlos Vinicius28%3.55FULFWD
Patson Daka28%3.55LEIFWD
Che Adams28%3.55SOUFWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin28%3.6EVEFWD
Marcus Rashford27%3.65MUNMID
Wout Weghorst27%3.65MUNFWD
Michail Antonio27%3.65WHUFWD
Jarrod Bowen27%3.7WHUMID
Said Benrahma26%3.85WHUMID
Kai Havertz26%3.9CHEFWD
Harvey Barnes25%3.95LEIMID
Philippe Coutinho25%4AVLMID
Wilfred Gnonto25%4LEEMID
Chris Wood25%4NEWFWD
Adam Armstrong25%4SOUFWD
Wilfried Zaha24%4.1CRYMID
Odsonne Edouard24%4.1CRYFWD
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang24%4.25CHEFWD
Leon Bailey23%4.4AVLMID
Jack Grealish22%4.5MCIMID
Miguel Almiron22%4.5NEWMID
Bryan Mbeumo21%4.7BREFWD
Bruno Fernandes21%4.75MUNMID
Martin Odegaard20%4.9ARSMID
Emiliano Buendia20%4.9AVLMID
Bernardo Silva20%5MCIMID
Anthony Martial20%5MUNFWD
Mason Mount20%5.1CHEMID
Joe Willock19%5.2NEWMID
Neal Maupay19%5.4EVEFWD
Pascal Gross17%5.8BHAMID
Allan Saint-Maximin17%5.8NEWMID
Ivan Perisic17%6TOTDEF
Goncalo Guedes15%6.5WOLMID
Raul Jimenez15%6.5WOLFWD
Harry Wilson14%7FULMID
Mykhaylo Mudryk13%8
Hee-Chan Hwang13%8WOLMID
Andreas Pereira12%8.5FULMID
Brenden Aaronson12%8.5LEEMID
Joao Cancelo12%8.5MCIDEF
Christian Eriksen12%8.5MUNMID
Anthony Gordon11%9.5EVEMID
Granit Xhaka9%11.5ARSMID
Goalscorer odds gameweek 21

Erling Haaland (68%) was back on the score sheet in midweek after his two-game long drought, in which people were starting to question if the goal machine had broken down.
His opponent this weekend, Wolves, have looked better under Lopetegui. However, the midlands club sit 15th for expected goals conceded (xGC) since the restart.
While I understand the temptation to get creative with the captaincy this week, the Bookies odds are pretty conclusive, Erling Haaland is by far and away your safest bet.

If you are considering someone else to stick the captain’s armband on, Harry Kane (48%) might just be your man.
While Fulham continue to have an impressive season, they remain weak defensively. The Cottagers sit 16th for xGC (5.70) in the last four games.
20 goal contributions already (15 goals, 5 assists) show what an outstanding season Kane is having already and the smart money says he’ll continue this good form in Gameweek 21.

He’s joined by team mate Dejan Kulusevski (39%) who grabbed a goal vs Man City in Gameweek 20, though somewhat fortunately. The Swede has shown flashes of his brilliance this season and will hope to continue that this weekend.

Ivan Toney (43%) seems to be in FPL limbo as he continues to bang in the goals but with FA charges hanging over his head, no one seems to know what to do with him.
Three goals in his last four games as well as an assist has him third amongst strikers for FPL points before he travels to Elland Road in Gameweek 21 to take on a Leeds United side under pressure. With just one clean sheet in their last 11 games, it’s quite likely Toney adds to his tally again this weekend.

Speaking of Leeds, Rodrigo (38%) is a man with a bit of form of late and his opponents this weekend, Brentford, have struggled away from home this year, especially defensively.
In nine away league games, Thomas Franck’s men have kept just two clean sheets. The likelihood is that Leeds score this weekend and if they do, Rodrigo is the most likely to be involved.

Making his first appearance in the Bookies Advantage team of the week is Liverpool new boy Cody Gakpo (33%). Given he has only played one game for his new side it’s hard to find stats to justify this one. Chelsea’s defensive form away from home has been abysmal though, with no clean sheets in their last four.
Quite the differential punt, at just 1.0% ownership Gakpo makes our XI this week.
Lastly, is a more tried and tested asset in Bukayo Saka (30%) with a tough assignment against Man United this weekend. Saka hauled big in this fixture last season with a goal and assist. Also having penalties also in his locker, he’s a relatively safe pick this weekend.

On the bench for us this week in attack is Josh Dasilva who has a goal and an assist in his last two starts for Brentford.

Clean sheet odds gameweek 21

TeamCS ProbabilityOdds
Man City58%1.73
West Ham46%2.18
Aston Villa34%2.95
Nottingham Forest33%3.05
Crystal Palace24%4.2
Man Utd18%5.5
Clean sheet odds

Manchester City (58%) have just one clean sheet in their last seven matches, though that doesn’t seem to bother the Bookies one bit as they top the poll this week.
They welcome Wolves to the Etihad who have improved under Lopetegui, if still a little uninspiring in attack. Four goals in four games since the restart may look promising but Wolves have failed to score a goal in five games against “Big Six” opposition so far this season.
The real skill comes down to picking who exactly is going to play in Man City’s back four. Manuel Akanji seems to be nailed, having started every game bar one since his introduction in Gameweek 8. John Stones, now returned from injury also appears to be a good option. Together, they make up our City defensive double up.

West Ham United (46%) welcome Frank Lampard’s Everton to the London Stadium this weekend. With the two managers under immense pressure, this promises to be a cagey affair with both defences relatively solid while both attacks are struggling.
Both sides are in the bottom five for open play expected goals (xG) since the restart with Everton sitting dead last.
West Ham, though, sit 6th for expected goals conceded (xGC) (3.70) in that time, so can consider themselves quite unlucky to have let in eight goals in their last four matches.
The Hammers tend to let up a reasonable amount of shots, so for that reason we have gone for Lukasz Fabianski between the posts. The Polish veteran is 6th for saves made in the league this year (58) and has 14 points from save accumulation.

Newcastle (45%) now have six clean sheets in their last seven games and 11 overall for the season, though they were very lucky to keep their record intact in Gameweek 20 as Mitrovic had the most unlucky penalty chalked off.
This weekend they travel to a struggling Crystal Palace side who may be buoyed by their late equaliser against Manchester United on Wednesday night. The stats make for slightly different reading however, with Palace sitting 18th for xG over the last four games (2.29) while Newcastle are first for xGC (1.70) in that time.
Kieran Trippier is the obvious choice here but he is joined by Dan Burn who at just £4.5m is an absolute steal.
Dan Burn is on the bench for us this week which provides good cover if we get our roulette wrong with our Man City defenders this week.

Our other two on the bench are Daniel Iversen (£3.9m) as well as Hugo Bueno (£3.9) who we expect nothing from but is the only starting £4.0m or less defender left in the game.

Odhrán Brennan is a data journalist for a sports data company, living in Finland. He’s been playing FPL since the 06/07 season and is a long-suffering fan of both Arsenal and the Republic of Ireland national team. You can follow him on Twitter here